Macro & Economy

China's Ministry of Commerce reported that customer traffic and revenue at 78 key shopping streets and commercial districts monitored by the ministry rose 3.4% and 5.3% year on year during the first three days of China's seven-day National Day holiday, which runs from October 1 to 7. The report said the Chinese government's consumer goods trade-in program generated 1.96 billion yuan in sales during the first three days of the holiday, equivalent to about 9.81 billion baht, benefiting 3.48 million consumers. Xinhua News Agency reported that the program brought about the trade-in of 46,000 vehicles, generating 7.45 billion yuan in new car sales, or about 37.2 billion baht; 1.51 million home appliances worth 6.5 billion yuan, or about 32.5 billion baht; and 1.71 million digital and smart devices worth 4.9 billion yuan, or about 24.5 billion baht. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities expect cross-regional passenger trips during the seven days to reach 2.13 billion, or an average of 300 million per day, with railway passenger trips on October 1 alone hitting 25.2 million, a record high for a single day. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has also carried out a one-month national tourism promotion program since late September, with local governments holding more than 20,000 events and distributing vouchers and consumer subsidies worth about 310 million yuan, or roughly 1.55 billion baht, to boost tourism consumption.

Japanese authorities plan to amend the economic security law to require companies and organizations holding big data to notify the government before transferring or disclosing sensitive personal information to third parties. Kyodo News reported that the government aims to submit the amendment bill to the ordinary session of the Diet next year, amid concerns that malicious actors abroad may misuse the data as artificial intelligence technology advances, potentially posing a threat to national security. Sensitive personal information covers medical treatment histories, location data, biometric data such as fingerprints and facial recognition data, genetic information, as well as financial transaction histories. Sources said the reporting requirement will be based on the volume of data an organization holds, and is expected to cover several hundred organizations, including banks and hospitals. The government also plans to enforce the requirement when organizations store data with external cloud services or data centers. In addition, the government is considering establishing a system to assess whether data transfers should be permitted, based primarily on national security factors. A panel of experts is expected to begin discussions late this month on the proposed system, including penalties for those who evade reporting, before submitting the bill to the Diet next year. There is a tendency to discuss regulation of data center and cloud service providers, while trying to avoid unnecessarily affecting these companies' business activities. The spread of generative AI has made personal information a strategic resource with implications for both the economy and national security, since large datasets may contain information used to surveil or blackmail individuals, including those involved in important decision-making. The economic security promotion law, which took effect in 2022, covers measures to support the development of critical technologies, strengthen supply chains, and conduct advance screening of equipment used by companies operating critical infrastructure.

The Board of Investment (BOI) reported that in the four years since the launch of the Long-Term Resident (LTR) Visa in September 2022, a total of 12,010 people have been approved for the visa, generating an estimated 43 billion baht in economic value, calculated from visa fees, spending in Thailand by visa holders, direct investment, and tax revenue from highly skilled professionals. Those approved fall into five groups: highly skilled professionals, experts working from Thailand for overseas employers, high-net-worth individuals, wealthy retirees, and family members of visa holders in the first four groups. The country with the highest number of approvals is the United States with more than 2,400, followed by Japan with more than 1,300 and the United Kingdom with more than 1,000. Japanese nationals make up a large share of the highly skilled professionals group. In the highly skilled professionals and experts working from Thailand for overseas employers groups, 54 percent hold executive positions, 36 percent are professionals in various fields, and the rest are at the technical level. Narit Therdsteerasukdi, Secretary-General of the BOI, said the four-year performance reflects Thailand's potential to attract high-quality foreigners, and the BOI will work with partner agencies to upgrade services across the online system and the one-stop service centre, the Thailand Investment and Expat Services Center (TIESC) at One Bangkok. In September 2026, the BOI also launched a new online LTR visa application system linked with data from the Department of Consular Affairs, the Immigration Bureau, the Department of Employment, and the Revenue Department to handle the growing number of applicants.

China is pressing ahead with the consolidation of its regional banks. In 2025 alone, more than 670 financial and banking entities were closed, a record high, and nearly all of them were in rural areas. As a result, the number of banking entities fell to 3,139 at the end of 2025, a decline of 23% over four years. A report by Fitch, citing data from China's National Financial Regulatory Administration, or NFRA, said China's small banks, most of them rural and city-level lenders, remain the weakest part of the system, weighed down by asset-quality problems, weak capital and regulatory shortcomings. Rural and regional city banks together account for more than a quarter of the assets in China's banking system. Jason Bedford, a senior researcher at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, believes the consolidation simplifies regulation and limits the liquidity risks of small financial institutions, adding that he has never seen consolidation on this scale. In July, authorities in the city of Wuhan took control of Z-Bank, which held 124 billion yuan in assets at the end of 2024, before merging it with Hankou Bank. It was the first bank takeover since the seizure of Baoshang Bank in Inner Mongolia in 2019. Moody's expects the mergers and acquisitions to continue.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi repeatedly used the words "decision, challenge, execution" in her policy speech on the 5th, making clear her stance of pursuing economic growth. Arguing that without growth "wage increases will not continue," "tax revenues will not rise," and "there will be no enhancement of social security," she sought understanding for the "responsible proactive fiscal policy" she herself champions. Amid rising long-term interest rates and a weakening yen over concerns about fiscal deterioration, she emphasized "market confidence," and "fiscal sustainability" appeared three times, with her stating it is "a natural precondition for advancing a responsible proactive fiscal policy." In the speech she quoted from the Chinese historical text the Book of the Later Han, saying "those with resolve will see their endeavors succeed," and those close to the Prime Minister said, "It is nearly one year since the administration was launched. It expresses her determination to deliver results." The Prime Minister is particular about "pen-marking," making corrections and annotations herself, and the speech ran about 8,800 characters, roughly 1,200 more than her first policy speech in October last year.

The Prime Minister has ordered that progress be seen on transferring relief money to flood victims within this week, after a total of 1,056,361 households had registered for assistance through the Thang Rath application as of 7:00 a.m. today. Bangkok had the most registrations at 458,987 households, followed by Samut Prakan province with 149,194 households, Pathum Thani province with 130,010 households, Chachoengsao province with 42,531 households, and Rayong province with 36,016 households. Meanwhile, more than 40,000 people registered through the website claim.bangkok.go.th, with the districts having the highest number of registrants being Lat Krabang, Sai Mai, and Bang Kapi. Under the Cabinet resolution, assistance is 9,000 baht per household. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has urged areas to survey and confirm data and verify it within 2 days before forwarding it to the Government Savings Bank to check and transfer the money to people within 3 working days. Mr. Ekkaphop Pheanphithak, spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, disclosed that the Prime Minister has been monitoring the flood situation for a sixth consecutive day, with areas still affected by flooding including Prachin Buri, Pathum Thani, and Chachoengsao provinces, and with evacuations of residents and patients, especially at Chao Phraya Abhaibhubejhr Hospital in Prachin Buri province, for which the Royal Thai Army has provided Chakraphong Camp Hospital to accommodate the transfer of patients. For disasters that occurred before 1 October 2026, the central budget is to be used, while incidents occurring from 1 October onward will fall under the national catastrophe insurance policy, with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Mr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas assigned to discuss with the Office of the Insurance Commission to establish clear systems and procedures for insurance claims. Miss Lalida Perdviwattana, deputy spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, disclosed after the press briefing of the joint flood situation information center that the main route in Bangkok still having high floodwater is Chalong Krung Road, while at the Kheha Rom Klao community more than 30 to 70 centimeters of water has been drained, with a target of draining about 25 centimeters more per day, and it is expected the area can be drained dry within 2 days. Meanwhile, the Bangkok Drainage Office forecasts that the water level in the Chao Phraya River today will peak at 1.72 meters, about 1.28 meters below the top of the flood barrier, and is preparing measures to handle heavy rain during 5-6 and 10-11 October 2026.

Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul revealed that in the latest week, from September 27 to October 3, 2026, 522,532 foreign tourists arrived in Thailand, an increase of 39,781 from the previous week, or 8.24%, averaging 74,647 per day. The rise was driven by consecutive holidays in several countries, including China's National Day and the Golden Week period, which pushed Chinese tourist numbers up 41.98% from the previous week, along with Hong Kong's National Day and South Korea's National Foundation Day. The Tourism and Sports Minister stated that the flooding situation in Bangkok has not yet directly affected tourism, with only a minor impact from flight cancellations by some airlines. The top five source markets for foreign tourists during the week were China with 133,946, Malaysia with 59,871, India with 46,942, Russia with 22,326, and South Korea with 21,219. Overall, from January 1 to October 3, 2026, cumulative foreign arrivals totaled 23.45 million, down 3.88% compared with 2025, generating revenue of 1.142485 trillion baht, down 2.26%. Meanwhile, domestic trips by Thai tourists totaled 153.96 million person-trips, up 2.42%, generating revenue of 902.95 billion baht, up 3.19%.

The Indian Rupee opened marginally higher against the US Dollar at the start of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy week, with USD/INR ticking down to near 96.25 as traders trimmed hawkish Federal Reserve rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at this month's policy meeting have risen to 82.3% from 35.8% seen last week, after US Nonfarm Payrolls for September showed the economy created just 29K fresh jobs, below 90K estimates and a previous reading of 133K revised lower from 162K, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2% and Average Hourly Earnings grew 3% year-on-year. Despite the cooler Fed bets, the US Dollar Index posted a fresh yearly high near 102.53 and 10-year US Treasury Yields held around 5.27%, not far from last week's two-decade high of 5.34%. The major trigger for the Rupee this week is the RBI's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, with analysts at MUFG/BTMU officially forecasting the central bank to keep rates on hold while calling for a hiking cycle to begin from December, seeing a good chance the RBI moves its stance away from neutral to signal a tightening bias. MUFG/BTMU forecast 50bps of rate hikes this cycle with some risk of 75bps in total, citing strong growth, abundant liquidity, picking-up credit growth, supportive fiscal policy, and upside inflation risk from higher commodity prices and adverse weather conditions in India.

Supachai Suthamphan, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, has instructed the Department of Internal Trade and provincial commerce offices to closely monitor the vegetable situation and expedite solutions after heavy rain and flooding in key growing areas across the central, western, and northeastern regions reduced the volume of vegetables reaching the market and pushed up prices for some items. Wattanasak Sueaiam, Director-General of the Department of Internal Trade, said the department has coordinated to link produce from growing sources to major central markets, namely Si Mum Mueang Market, Talad Thai, Si Mueang Market, and Lan Mueang Market, while inspecting price display signs and scales to prevent profiteering. According to wholesale price tracking at Si Mum Mueang Market, some vegetables have begun to decline: green jinda chilies fell from 70 baht to 42 baht per kilogram, red jinda chilies from 50 baht to 40 baht per kilogram, green cabbage from 12 baht to 8 baht per kilogram, napa cabbage from 18 baht to 17 baht per kilogram, and Thai basil from 170 baht to 150 baht per kilogram. Spring onions dropped from 150 baht to 130 baht per kilogram, and holy basil leaves from 150 baht to 120 baht per kilogram, while lemon basil leaves are still trending upward at 140 baht per kilogram. For the 2026 Vegetarian Festival, the department is preparing the campaign "Thai Helps Thai: Merit and Value, Vegetarian Festival 2026" from October 9 to 18, 2026, together with central markets, fresh markets, retail and wholesale chains, convenience stores, future food operators, and restaurants, selling cooked vegetarian food at affordable prices along with promotions on vegetarian ingredients and seasonings of up to more than 50 percent off. Failure to display price tags carries a fine of up to 10,000 baht under Section 28 of the Price of Goods and Services Act B.E. 2542, while selling goods at unreasonably high prices carries a prison term of up to 7 years, a fine of up to 140,000 baht, or both, under Section 29. The public can report issues to the Department of Internal Trade hotline at 1569.

The National Water Resources Office has issued announcement No. 9/2569, warning of waterlogging, flash floods, forest runoff and riverbank overflow during 5-7 October 2569. At-risk areas cover the North, the Central region including Bangkok and its vicinity, the East, the West and several provinces in the South. The office instructed close monitoring of large, medium and small reservoirs holding more than 80% of their storage capacity, along with watching for sudden rises in water levels and bank overflow in low-lying areas along major rivers and their tributaries, such as the Ping River, the Sakae Krang River, the Khwae Noi River, the Pa Sak River, the Tha Chin River, the Nakhon Nayok River, the Prachin Buri River, the Chanthaburi River, the Trat River, the Khwae Yai River and the Kolok River. As for water conditions at the three main dams in the Eastern Economic Corridor area, Bang Phra Reservoir stands at 82%, or 95 million cubic metres; Nong Pla Lai Reservoir at 103%, or 168 million cubic metres; and Prasae Reservoir at 100%, or 294 million cubic metres. Meanwhile, in the Chao Phraya basin as of 6:00 a.m. today, station P.17 in Banphot Phisai district, Nakhon Sawan province, recorded a water level of 35.45 metres above mean sea level, 2.80 metres below the bank, with a downward trend. Station N.67 in Chum Saeng district recorded 26.05 metres above mean sea level, 2.16 metres below the bank, also trending down. Station C.2 in Mueang Nakhon Sawan district showed a flow rate of 2,038 cubic metres per second, with a water level of 22.84 metres above mean sea level, 2.86 metres below the bank, while the Chao Phraya Dam is discharging water at 2,500 cubic metres per second.

Ekkaphop Pheanphithak, spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said at the joint flood situation information center that the Meteorological Department forecasts scattered rain across all regions between October 5 and 7, with more rain expected from October 10 to 13. He asked the public in Pattaya in Chonburi province to be on alert for rain bomb conditions during the afternoon of the same day, which could cause localized flooding, and urged vigilance in Chachoengsao and Pathum Thani provinces, which receive part of the runoff from the Nakhon Nayok side, through next week from Phetchaburi province down to the lower South. Parinya Chanthakup, director of the water quality management academic division at the Bangkok Drainage Office, said the Chao Phraya River level today is forecast to peak at 1.72 meters, about 1.28 meters below Bangkok's flood barriers, and that Bangkok is preparing for two periods of heavy rain, from October 5 to 6 and from October 10 to 11, 2026, by accelerating drainage in main canals and deploying mobile pumps at risk spots such as Sai Mai, Lat Krabang, Khlong Sam Wa and Saphan Sung districts. The Royal Irrigation Department confirmed that releasing water from the Chao Phraya Dam at a rate of 2,500 cubic meters per second will not cause water to overflow Bangkok's or the surrounding area's flood barriers into urban zones. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said that if Bangkok and the provinces submit complete data, compensation payments to flood victims can be transferred within two to three days, or no later than this week. As of 7:00 a.m. on October 5, registrations through the Thang Rath application totaled 1,056,361 households, comprising 458,987 households in Bangkok, 149,194 in Samut Prakan, 130,010 in Pathum Thani, 42,531 in Chachoengsao and 36,016 in Rayong.

Kasikorn Research Center reports that the world is entering an era in which electricity is at the center of the economic system, the Age of Electricity. The international energy organization IEA indicates that since 2019 global electricity demand has grown more than twice as fast as overall energy use, driven by electric vehicles, air conditioners, the industrial sector, and data centers. In the latest data for 2025, electricity accounted for about 23% of global final energy consumption, while economic activity dependent on electricity generated nearly half of global GDP, or 45%, and it is estimated that electricity's share of global final energy consumption will rise to 35% in 2035. Thailand is entering the Age of Electricity just as the world is, which changes the challenge for the energy system from simply having enough electricity to having electricity that is sufficient, clean, stable, and competitively priced. Clean electricity will become even more important to competitiveness, because Thailand's power generation sector still emits about 87 million tons of CO2 per year. The challenge therefore is not only increasing clean power generation capacity, but also investing in the grid and BESS to create flexibility in time for new demand, while also monitoring related energy policies such as PDP2026, Direct PPA, and the use of loans under the emergency decree for loans of 200 billion baht for the energy transition.

Investment in artificial intelligence is reaching unprecedented levels. According to data from the World Intellectual Property Organization, or WIPO, in its Global Innovation Index 2026 report, global venture capital investment rose 27.9% in 2025 to $510 billion, the strongest annual expansion since the peak in 2021. The number of deals, however, fell 1.4% to about 43,500, a fourth consecutive year of decline. AI accounted for 53% of global VC investment value in 2025, up from about 27% in late 2022, and in the first half of 2026 that share surged to 77%. North America attracted about $213 billion in AI investment, out of roughly $270 billion in AI-related VC worldwide in 2025, accounting for 86% of global AI VC value in early 2026. PwC estimates that global data center investment alone could total more than $30 trillion cumulatively by 2050, with a base-case estimate of $31.6 trillion produced jointly with Oxford Economics, within a projection range of roughly $22 trillion to $50 trillion. Annual data center spending could rise from about $800 billion in 2026 to roughly $1.8 trillion a year by 2050. But Bain & Company estimates that by 2030 the AI industry will need to generate about $6 trillion in annual revenue to support the computing power and infrastructure now being built, while existing AI services for consumers and businesses may generate only about $1.2 trillion to $1.8 trillion. That means the industry still faces a revenue gap of about $4.2 trillion that must be created from new markets. David Crawford, Bain's global head of technology, said AI infrastructure is being built far ahead of the demand curve, and making that investment sustainable may require raising global GDP growth by about 1 percentage point a year. Goldman Sachs estimates that major hyperscalers will need to generate about $300 billion in AI revenue within a few years just to earn back the money being poured into data centers, chips and networking systems. Under an assumption of a 15% annual return on investment, the six largest U.S. hyperscalers would need to generate combined revenue of about $1.42 trillion in 2028-2030 to support the investment being made in 2026-2027. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, an economist at Columbia Business School, estimates that AI investment in the United States could total about $9 trillion in 2025-2032, and the U.S. AI industry may need to generate about $3.55 trillion in annual revenue by 2032 to deliver a return on investment of about 10%. Diane Coyle, an economist at the University of Cambridge, notes, however, that major technologies of the past have typically taken about 10 to 50 years for their effects to be fully reflected in productivity figures. Meanwhile, HSBC's Global Entrepreneurial Wealth Report 2026 found that wealthy entrepreneurs worldwide plan to spend a combined total of about $367 billion on AI over the next 12 months, with four in five planning to increase spending on the technology. WIPO said R&D investment by the world's leading companies reached a record high of about $1.5 trillion in 2025, with software- and AI-related companies increasing investment fastest.

According to the September consumer sentiment survey released by the Cabinet Office on the 5th, the consumer confidence index for households of two or more people, seasonally adjusted, fell 0.1 point from the previous month to 35.4. The Cabinet Office left its basic assessment of the consumer confidence index unchanged, saying that a pickup in sentiment is being seen.

Japan's private sector expanded for an 18th consecutive month in September 2026, but momentum cooled to its weakest since May as the S&P Global Composite PMI Business Activity Index eased to 52.3 from August's 53.5 and came in below the flash estimate of 52.5. Within that composite, the S&P Global Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 51.3 in September from 52.5 in August, also below the flash reading of 51.6 and beneath the 2026 year-to-date average. The slowdown reflected softer growth in new orders, weighed down in part by operational disruptions from the Kumamoto earthquake and a continued steep decline in export orders. In contrast to the softer domestic data, the Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2% toward 70,000 on Monday, reaching a three-month high as weaker-than-expected US jobs data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further, while the Japanese yen was little changed around 157.8 per dollar.

Asadej Kongsiri, a board member and the manager of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, reported the results of a roadshow in New York in the United States, saying that most of the investors who took part were long-term funds, which place importance on economic fundamentals, the country's potential, and long-term policy direction rather than short-term volatility from US government bond yields, oil and energy prices, and the flood situation. As for the impact of the floods on listed companies, based on preliminary monitoring, no listed companies have been found to have been severely or significantly affected, with most of the businesses hit hard not yet listed on the stock exchange. What must be monitored further, however, is the indirect impact through supply chains and value chains. As for the outflow of fund flow in the recent period, it is a picture consistent with other stock markets in the region, stemming from a risk-off environment, and is therefore seen as a very short-term factor rather than a change in the long-term view on Thailand. If the flood situation eases and listed companies clearly reflect their fundamentals, there is an opportunity to draw fund flow back into investing in the Thai stock market again. Foreign investors have shown particular interest in the automotive industry and Thailand's water management systems, after the country faced a major flood crisis in 2011.

Russian authorities are racing to contain a public health risk in the Irkutsk region of Siberia after a laboratory worker at an anti-plague institute died of plague, prompting at least 197 people who may have had close contact to be isolated and placed under medical observation, with more than 100 of them isolated in hospital. The Shelekhov district hospital has been quarantined pending assessment by a special commission. The deceased is Daria Sh., aged 27 or 28, an employee of the Irkutsk anti-plague institute, who had told medical staff that she broke a test tube containing live bacteria in an accident. She was taken to hospital on Tuesday after developing severe pneumonia in Shelekhov, near the city of Irkutsk, and was placed on a ventilator before dying on Thursday. Alexei Tsydenov, the leader of the Republic of Buryatia, confirmed that the woman died of plague but did not specify the type of the disease. Igor Kobzev, governor of the Irkutsk region, urged the public to remain calm after discussions with Anna Popova, head of Russia's consumer protection and public health watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor, and said all identified contacts were already under medical observation, with no contacts showing symptoms so far and laboratory tests coming back negative. Authorities have also cancelled public events scheduled in the city of Irkutsk, and law enforcement officers are reported to have opened a criminal investigation into the possibility that a breach of health safety measures led to the death. The type of plague that killed the worker has not been officially confirmed, with some media reporting that pneumonic plague, which can spread from person to person through respiratory droplets, is suspected.

Ratings agency Moody's Ratings said on the 2nd that with a presidential election approaching, the prospects for passing France's 2027 budget are highly uncertain. It expects political fragmentation to persist after the election and sees fiscal consolidation remaining difficult. Moody's is due to review France's Aa3 rating on the 23rd, and the current outlook is negative, indicating that any future rating change is more likely to be a downgrade than an upgrade. On the 1st, the French government submitted to parliament a 2027 budget draft with a strong austerity bent aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit. Moody's noted that whether France's institutions can tackle major policy challenges despite parliamentary fragmentation will be the biggest factor in judging whether the negative outlook can be resolved.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, or AMRO, said in its annual financial stability report for 2026 that Southeast Asia, along with China, Japan and South Korea, faces greater risk than most of the world's economies if enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technology slows or collapses, potentially triggering spillovers across financial markets and the real economy. The report said the region is the hub of the global AI supply chain and accounts for two-thirds of global trade growth related to AI, from memory chip production in South Korea to semiconductor assembly in Malaysia. AMRO warned that a disorderly correction could spread through falling exports of technology goods, losses in investment portfolios, capital outflows, refinancing pressure on indebted technology and infrastructure companies, and weakening investor confidence. It said large cloud service providers are increasingly relying on borrowing to fund costly data centre construction, and that higher debt levels could amplify the fallout if AI returns disappoint. The report also noted that some Southeast Asian stock markets are heavily concentrated in AI-related shares, such as South Korea, while Japanese and Hong Kong markets have begun moving in step with US AI and technology companies, meaning shocks can be transmitted between them even without domestic triggers. Central banks from the Bank of England to the Monetary Authority of Singapore have voiced growing concern over whether massive investment in AI will generate sustainable growth.

The euro dropped to a 17-month low on Monday, falling as much as 0.8% to touch 1.1161 per dollar in Asian trade as growing political and fiscal concerns in the region weighed on investor sentiment. Fast-money funds in Asia reportedly sold the euro for dollars in spot trading, pushing prices past barrier levels and triggering options-related selling that compounded the decline, according to Bloomberg. Brent Donnelly, president of foreign exchange trading at analytics firm Spectra Markets, said the French politics trade that many expected would escalate this winter as April 2027 elections neared is here now, adding that any budget promises made by the French government now are not super credible with a change of power coming soon. French bond futures dipped 0.13%, close to record lows they have been hugging in recent weeks, while the yield on US 10-year Treasury notes stood at 5.262% as some calm returned following a spike to a 24-year high last week that rattled markets. Sterling slipped 0.24% to $1.32064 and the Japanese yen changed hands at 157.92 per dollar, leaving the dollar index up 0.47% at 102.37.

The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has transferred the full sum of 4.7 billion baht to the Government Savings Bank for payout to flood victims, with Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordering that the first batch of transfers reach the public within this week. Sirithorn Somsuwan, director of the department's Public Relations and Dissemination Division, said that as of 7:00 a.m. on October 5, 2026, nationwide registrations totaled 1,056,361 households, with Bangkok filing the highest number of requests at 458,987, followed by Samut Prakan with 149,194, Pathum Thani with 130,010, Chachoengsao with 42,531, and Rayong with 36,016. Department Director-General Nirat Pongsitthithavorn said data processing is now under way, and that any district, province, or subdistrict that completes the process first can be paid by the Government Savings Bank immediately; once local authorities, Bangkok, and the provinces submit their data to the department, it can send confirmation to the bank so that relief transfers can be made within this week.

The Euro dropped below the 1.1200 mark against the US Dollar on Monday, hitting its lowest level since May 2025 during the Asian session. Spot prices traded just above 1.1150, down around 0.85% for the day, pressured by concerns over France's deepening debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year's election. French borrowing costs have climbed alongside global yields, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield rising above 4.9% and close to its highest level in decades, while France's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to climb to 122% next year from 119% this year. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who leads in the polls for the presidential race, has proposed tax cuts and vowed to bring down France's retirement age to as low as 60, adding to market worries. Meanwhile, the US Dollar rallied to a fresh high since April 2025 as persistent geopolitical uncertainties countered Friday's disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which further tempered October Federal Reserve rate hike bets.

Japan has held onto 12th place in the annual innovation index published by the World Intellectual Property Organization, or WIPO, trailing South Korea, Singapore and China among the region's major economies. That leaves Japan still far from the government's goal of rising to 4th place or higher in the global innovation index by 2035 under its intellectual property strategy for 2025. South Korea took 4th place, the highest in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Singapore in 5th, while China stood at 10th. The rankings for South Korea, Japan and China were unchanged from last year. The index uses roughly 80 indicators to assess the innovation performance of 139 economies, with Switzerland holding 1st place for a 16th consecutive year, followed by Sweden and the United States. The report said Japan's strengths in industrial and business-sector innovation rank among the strongest in the world, noting that the Tokyo-Yokohama area's 2nd place among global innovation clusters reflects the global weight of Japan's patenting, research and venture capital activity. China's Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou cluster, meanwhile, retained 1st place in the ranking of leading innovation clusters. The report said, however, that Japan still lags in several areas, including higher education, graduates in science and engineering, and knowledge-intensive employment, while a shrinking young population is weighing on the country's innovation performance. Sacha Wunsch-Vincent, co-editor of the report, said Japan has one of the most consistent innovation systems in the world, and that the depth of research led by Japanese companies, along with close ties to universities and public institutions, keeps Japan among the leading innovative economies year after year. The report also pointed to continued growth in global investment in technological innovation, estimating that worldwide research and development spending grew 3.3% in 2025 from a year earlier after adjusting for inflation, and is expected to expand 3.6% in 2026 to 3.4 trillion US dollars. Venture capital value rose about 28% to 510 billion US dollars in 2025, the report added, with artificial intelligence accounting for 53% of global deal value.

Pobchai Pattarawit, equity and derivatives market strategist at InnovestX Securities Research, said on the stock market news program Stock Market Insight that the Thai stock market now has more external supporting factors after U.S. non-farm payrolls for September rose by only 29,000, significantly below market expectations. As a result, investors now assign more than 80% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates at its late-October meeting, while the chance of a rate hike has fallen to about 20% from a fairly high weighting previously. InnovestX estimates today's SET Index trading range at 1,570 points as the lower bound and 1,585-1,590 points as the upper bound, expecting the recovery to be gradual, with continued volatility from the domestic flood situation that must be monitored. Although the initial economic impact is estimated at about 0.1% of GDP and the SET has already fallen about 2%, reflecting those negatives to a reasonable extent. On foreign fund flows, foreign investors have sold Thai stocks on a net basis for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about 35 billion baht, partly due to risk reduction over the flood situation. If the situation is not as severe as feared, selling pressure could slow. For investment strategy, InnovestX recommends focusing on domestic play stocks and stocks that benefit from post-flood recovery, especially retail and construction materials, such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, CPALL, BJC, CRC and DCC, as well as tourism stocks like ERW, CENTEL and AOT, driven by the tourism season and China's Golden Week. For defensive stocks, it recommends the medical group such as BCH and PR9, and the communications group such as TRUE. For the banking group, it views BBL, trading at about 0.6 times book value with an expected dividend yield of about 5.4%, and KBANK, trading at about 0.9 times book value with an expected dividend yield of 6.8%, as starting to look attractive and suitable for gradual accumulation. As for KTB, its price has risen considerably and trades at about 1.2 times book value, leaving more limited upside, so it recommends waiting for a pullback before investing.

Patricia Mongkhonvanit, Director-General of the Comptroller General's Department, disclosed the results of budget disbursements for fiscal year 2026 and the carry-over funds from fiscal year 2025, covering 1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026, with a total budget of 4.10 trillion baht. Total spending amounted to 4.1 trillion baht, or 101.86%, 3.16% higher than the same period of the previous fiscal year, while disbursements totalled 3.92 trillion baht, or 95.63%, 5.35% higher than the same period last year. The fiscal 2026 expenditure budget of 3.78 trillion baht saw spending of 3.86 trillion baht, or 102.31%, and disbursements of 3.62 trillion baht, or 95.83%. Carry-over funds remaining for fiscal year 2027 amount to 245 billion baht, or 6.48% of the total budget, of which 51.5 billion baht is recurrent expenditure and 193 billion baht is capital expenditure. For the capital expenditure budget of 781 billion baht, total spending was 779 billion baht, or 99.71%, and disbursements were 586 billion baht, or 75.07%, 0.07% above target. Meanwhile, carry-over funds from fiscal year 2025 of 320 billion baht saw obligations incurred of 309 billion baht, or 96.56%, and disbursements of 299 billion baht, or 93.27%. The Director-General added that the proactive acceleration policy on obligations and disbursements of Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, has enabled agencies to disburse better than target. For fiscal year 2027, the Cabinet has approved measures to accelerate budget disbursement and public spending, requiring obligations for both carry-over funds and the capital expenditure budget to be completed within the second quarter. If this is not done by 31 March 2026, the carry-over funds cannot be extended for further disbursement, and the capital expenditure of the annual budget will be used to prepare a draft budget transfer bill.