HSBC Holdings PLC

HSBC said on the 1st that it expects the average gold price in 2026 to reach $4,490 per ounce, revising its forecast down from the previous estimate of $4,560. For 2027, it also lowered its forecast to $4,825 from the previous estimate of $4,925. HSBC economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement an additional rate hike in December, and while they noted that additional rate hikes and rising crude oil prices could weigh on prices in the short term, they maintained the view that long-term supporting factors will persist. They also mentioned that the prolonged Middle East conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, could trigger another surge in crude oil prices, accelerate inflation, and increase the likelihood that interest rates remain elevated for an extended period. HSBC forecasts that gold prices will trade in a range of $3,950 to $4,600 per ounce during the year and in a range of $4,300 to $5,300 in 2027. It kept its forecast for the average gold price at $5,200 in 2028 and $5,300 in 2029 unchanged. Gold prices have fallen more than 20% since the attacks on Iran, which it attributed to a sharp jump in crude oil prices that intensified inflationary pressure and led to Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, HSBC expects widening fiscal deficits, persistently high government debt levels, and growing uncertainty over economic policy to serve as long-term tailwinds for gold prices, noting that investment demand in China remains solid, demand in India is recovering, and central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold purchases over the long term.

Domestic gold prices opened on October 2, 2026, down 200 baht per baht-weight of gold from yesterday's close. The Gold Traders Association announced at 9:02 a.m. that gold ornaments were selling at 67,000.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 64,672.56 baht per baht-weight, while gold bars were selling at 66,200.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 66,000.00 baht per baht-weight. Gold spot stood at 4,150.00 dollars per ounce. Poon Panichpibool, a money and capital market strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS of Krungthai Bank, said market players' reduced expectations for a US central bank rate hike had helped support COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery, keeping them around the 4,200 dollar per ounce zone despite pressure from Middle East uncertainty that bolstered the dollar. CNBC reported that spot gold rose 0.4 percent to 4,171.19 dollars per ounce and US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4 percent to 4,205.10 dollars per ounce after US inflation data came in below expectations, leading the market to put the chance of a Fed rate hike in October at 28 percent, down from 45 percent before the data and 69 percent a week earlier. Investors are also awaiting the US September non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. HSBC cut its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 4,490 dollars per ounce and 4,825 dollars per ounce respectively, saying gold may face further pressure in the near term but is likely nearing a bottom, and that central banks are expected to return to buying gold in response to lower prices, especially when prices are near or below 4,000 dollars per ounce.

HSBC says European equity funds appear to be rotating out of France and into the UK as concerns over France's fiscal outlook weigh on investor sentiment. The broker recently cut France to "underweight," citing a worsening fiscal backdrop, weaker economic forecasts and deteriorating analyst expectations, according to a Sept. 23 report. HSBC also recently raised its year-end target for the STOXX 600 to 680, pointing to a growing shift by European companies towards their domestic markets. Global equities, measured by the FTSE All-World index, rose 2.4% in the third quarter of 2026 so far, and the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest period for both equity fund flows and market performance. HSBC remains "overweight" technology, which has the strongest earnings growth outlook in Europe for 2027 with consensus forecasts pointing to 27% growth, and stays "neutral" on healthcare, where consensus forecasts call for earnings growth of 5% in 2026 and about 9% in 2027. HSBC's economists expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates twice, in December and February, which could continue to support financial stocks.

Mastercard completed its acquisition of BVNK for up to $1.8 billion on August 3, 2026, more than double the London-based fiat-to-stablecoin payments firm's $750 million valuation from its December 2024 Series B. The deal follows Stripe's $1.1 billion purchase of Bridge in late 2024, and in June 2026 a consortium of more than 140 companies including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and BlackRock unveiled Open USD, a stablecoin whose news sent Circle's stock down 17% that day. Visa, which had used BVNK as a stablecoin settlement partner before losing it to Mastercard, issued an RFP on August 18 for a replacement licensed in the US, Canada, UK and Singapore, and Visa Ventures invested $10 million in London startup Velocity as a $10 million add-on to its Series A, bringing the total to $48 million, while Visa's stablecoin settlement run rate roughly doubled to about $7 billion annualized by its fiscal second quarter. On September 30, 2026, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority opened its authorisation gateway for cryptoasset firms including stablecoin issuers, with applications running through February 28, 2027 and full enforcement set for October 25, 2027, while in the US seven agencies missed their one-year rulemaking deadline for the GENIUS Act on July 18, 2026, leaving only NPRMs published ahead of a January 18, 2027 effective date. HSBC's HKD stablecoin RedCoin, distributed through its 3.3 million-user PayMe app, along with Citi's partnership with Coinbase and Circle's work with Volante on USDC settlement, point to infrastructure consolidation rather than open experimentation.

Costco Wholesale Corporation reported fourth-quarter results on September 24 that beat expectations, with net sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion and earnings of $6.75 a share, and the stock rose 2.93% to close at $922.77. Comparable sales rose 9.4% companywide and 10.7% in the United States, while digitally enabled sales grew 19.5%, the fastest-moving part of the business. The sixteen-week quarter closed a fiscal year in which net sales reached $297.2 billion, and Costco finished the year operating 939 warehouses worldwide. Earnings included a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 a share from tariff refunds, so excluding that the quarter was still ahead of expectations but by less than the headline suggests. At least eight research firms lowered their price targets the following day, led by Truist, which cut its target to $955 from $1,011 while keeping a Hold rating, and Bernstein, which trimmed its target by a single dollar to $1,143 from $1,144 while keeping an Outperform rating; JPMorgan cut to $1,015 from $1,100 and stayed Overweight. The cuts centered on slowing membership growth rather than the quarter itself, and the day was not one-directional, as HSBC upgraded the stock to Buy and DA Davidson raised its target to $1,040. Costco earned $20.76 a share across the fiscal year, leaving the stock trading near 44 times what the business actually produced, with the average Wall Street target still above $1,045.

HSBC downgraded Twilio to Reduce from Hold, sending the communications software company's shares down about 3% early Friday, while keeping its $211 price target. The brokerage cited uncertainty over how much economic value Twilio can capture from Meta Platforms' Muse AI agent. HSBC said rising AI-agent activity could lift demand for calls, messages and authentication services, but more traffic does not necessarily mean a larger share of the resulting revenue for Twilio. The firm expects Twilio's role with Muse to center mainly on connecting AI-driven calls to traditional phone networks and handling transactional or verification messages, areas that face competition from other communications providers and wholesale carriers. HSBC also noted Meta could pick different communications providers or build more direct connections with carriers, limiting the portion of Muse-related spending flowing through Twilio. The downgrade comes as investors have recently linked Twilio to Muse's growth; Reuters reported the AI assistant reached 2.8 million downloads within its first 12 days.

Wal-Mart de México's fair value estimate has edged down to MX$58.77 from MX$61.04 as analysts trimmed their price targets on the Mexican retailer. HSBC moved to a Reduce rating with a MX$42 target, the low end of a recent MX$42 to MX$63 range, while Barclays kept an Equal Weight rating and cut its target to MX$56, citing margin resilience even as the Mexican consumer backdrop softened in the second quarter. Barclays also trimmed its target from MX$66 to MX$63 ahead of the quarter, pointing to softer consumption in Mexico. Alongside the fair value change, the model's revenue growth assumption slipped to 6.14% from 6.47%, net profit margin moved to 5.05% from 5.19%, and the future P/E rose to 24.36x from 23.87x.

HSBC Holdings has cut its forecast for the 10 year US Treasury yield, changing its bond market outlook. The revised projection reflects HSBC's assessment of recent oil price moves and evolving geopolitical risks, and the bank is positioning its fixed income views around the new call. HSBC Holdings is a global bank with a market cap of £259.4 billion that provides lending, deposit, and capital markets services, so its Treasury view feeds directly into how it manages interest rate risk across its balance sheet. A lower assumed yield can influence how the group prices loans, deposits and longer dated bonds, how it weighs fixed versus floating products, and how it times callable funding such as its recent yen bond issues. The clearest test of whether the reset matters will be how HSBC's reported net interest income and funding costs track relative to its 10 year US yield assumptions over the next few reporting periods.

HSBC is planning to create 1,000 entry-level roles in the UK over the next year as the bank targets Gen Z workers. The new entry-level positions will comprise apprenticeships, graduate programmes and internships across 2026 and 2027, and the bank is also offering 500 one-week in-person work experience placements designed to give secondary school students earlier exposure to the workplace. The hiring drive is being led by the UK bank and will see the majority of opportunities focused in regions outside of London, with recruitment for the 2027 entry-level roles opening from late September. Around a third of all hires the UK bank has made this year have been aged 18 to 24. The push comes as the wider global bank undergoes an overhaul led by chief executive Georges Elhedery, who targeted 1.5 billion US dollars, or 1.1 billion pounds, worth of cost reductions; earlier this year Elhedery said a large amount of the savings had come from eliminating duplicate jobs within the group, particularly among the more senior ranks, resulting in a net 15% reduction of managing director positions. HSBC's annual report revealed that it had paid out 67.5 million US dollars, or 50.9 million pounds, in severance payments to 134 senior bankers in 2025, amounting to about a tenth of its so-called material risk takers. Chief executive of the UK bank, David Lindberg, said investing in early-career talent is important for HSBC's future as it builds a high-performance culture with care, adding that as the world of work changes, the bank is building the skills its customers and communities need.

HSBC downgraded Netflix to Hold from Buy and cut its price target 21%, to $76 from $96, sending the streaming giant's shares down more than 1% at Tuesday's open. Analyst Mohammed Khallouf said a near-term recovery in engagement looks unlikely, citing a declining reception for Netflix original content and YouTube's growing share of television viewing. YouTube reached a record 14.2% share of U.S. television viewing in July while Netflix accounted for 7.8%, and viewing hours for English-language programs on Netflix's weekly Top 10 lists fell roughly 17% year over year across July and August. HSBC raised its Netflix content spending estimates for 2027 and 2028 by about 2% while cutting EPS forecasts for those years by roughly 6% to 9%, noting YouTube is expected to distribute about $23 billion to creators in 2026 against roughly $20 billion of cash content spending at Netflix. The new target leaves only about 3% upside from current levels.

HSBC Holdings has returned to the yen bond market, issuing three senior unsecured callable bonds totaling ¥54.3b, with maturities in 2030, 2032 and 2037. The fresh issuance comes after a soft patch in the HSBC Holdings share price, which is down 2.15% over the past day and 4.51% across the week, though the year-to-date share price return of 26.18% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 56.91% indicate longer-term momentum has built rather than faded. HSBC Holdings last closed at £15.04, a touch above the most followed fair value estimate of £14.71, which is built using an 8.3% discount rate and detailed revenue and margin forecasts. The analyst consensus sees HSBC Holdings as slightly overvalued at £15.04 against a £14.71 target, yet the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction, with the shares trading at roughly a 35% discount to an estimated value of £23.13. Investors now have two very different yardsticks in front of them, and the key decision is which set of assumptions feels closer to how HSBC Holdings will actually run its balance sheet, manage risk and deploy capital over time.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank are now forecasting a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at this week's Sept. 15-16 meeting, a reversal driven by stronger-than-expected inflation readings and rising oil prices, according to Reuters. The four institutions are aligned on a quarter-point increase, and several see rates staying higher for longer as the Fed pursues its 2% inflation target. Market odds of a hike this week stood at roughly 88% to 89%, compared with 67% to 70% before last week's inflation data. August inflation data came in hotter than anticipated, with a closely watched gauge of core prices notching its biggest monthly jump in four months, while crude oil crossed $100 a barrel as hostilities in the Middle East intensified. JPMorgan economists led by Michael Feroli said the prior week featured rising bond yields and energy prices and a firm enough set of inflation readings to make a rate hike more likely than not, and the bank raised its estimate of the long-run policy rate to 3.25%. Goldman Sachs maintained its outlook for two Fed rate cuts in 2027, though pushed back from its earlier timeline, after having called a September increase very unlikely as recently as last month, when CME FedWatch data put the odds at around 30%.

Barclays raised its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,950 from 7,800, citing a standout technology earnings season that strengthened confidence in AI-driven profit growth. The revised target sits about 3.6% above Tuesday's 7,673.52 close, and Barclays lifted its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecast to $365 from $337, an 8.3% upgrade. Head of U.S. equity strategy Venu Krishna pointed to technology execution and improving profit visibility supported by AI investment, with the firm willing to recognize stronger corporate profits without assuming richer multiples; at 7,950 on $365 of earnings, the index would trade at roughly 21.8 times the forecast. Barclays kept its year-end 2027 target at 8,800, and the move follows HSBC's raise to 8,100 from 7,650 for 2026. Risks cited include uncertainty over the durability of AI spending, sticky inflation, geopolitical tension and limited room for multiple expansion, while the S&P 500 is already up nearly 12% in 2026.

WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged to their highest levels in six weeks after Houthi attacks on areas and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, which injured more than 70 people and heightened concerns about Middle East oil supply. West Texas Intermediate crude traded on September 8 at $93.03 per barrel, up $1.55, while Brent was at $97.92 per barrel, up $0.92. Thai Oil PCL's oil price analysis unit noted that the incident increases the risk that attacks could expand from the Strait of Hormuz to energy infrastructure and oil transport routes in other areas. If the conflict escalates, it could affect oil supply and pressure the global economy through higher energy costs. Meanwhile, major financial institutions have begun to raise their oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts for December 2026 by $5 to $85 and $80 per barrel, respectively, and its 2027 forecasts to $80 and $75. HSBC raised its average Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $90 and $85 per barrel. On the U.S. labor market front, August data came in stronger than expected, with employment rising by 162,000 jobs versus expectations of 56,000, and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. This led investors to increase expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates by 0.25% at its September 15-16 meeting. Meanwhile, Trump discussed with Putin ending the Russia-Ukraine war, which could pave the way for Russia to export more energy, but in the short term the market remains focused on Middle East risks.

HSBC has raised its U.S. Treasury yield forecasts across the curve, reflecting a more hawkish view of the Federal Reserve's likely path, even as it maintains its base case that policy rates stay on hold. The bank, which had projected the Federal Open Market Committee would hold rates steady through 2026 and 2027, now sees a nearly even likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. HSBC lifted its two-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.20% for end-2026 from 3.85%, and to 3.95% for end-2027 from 3.50%, while raising its 10-year yield forecast to 4.65% by end-2026 from 4.30%, and to 4.75% by end-2027. The bank attributed the changes to an increasingly asymmetric skew in dual mandate risks, which it says likely sustains upward pressure on front-end yields even if the Fed doesn't tighten policy in the near term. HSBC noted that Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium provided clarity on the Fed's reaction function, potentially containing term premium and allowing long-end yields to edge lower in the near term, but it maintained that persistently large fiscal deficits point to a steepening Treasury curve over the longer horizon.

HSBC Holdings is intensifying legal action against companies that defaulted on Covid era loans, acting alongside other major lenders to recover funds from pandemic lending programmes. The move could affect smaller and mid-sized businesses that relied on emergency financing, and investors are watching how this shift in enforcement might influence banks' future risk management and provisioning. With a market cap of £262.0 billion, HSBC's tougher stance highlights a wider trend in credit risk handling among big lenders. Higher recoveries would support income from previously stressed loans, but more aggressive action could mean higher near-term legal costs and a closer look at how the bank manages its bad loans, which currently sit at 2.1% with a 48% allowance. The key marker will be how HSBC reports expected credit losses, bad loan ratios, and related recoveries in its next few quarterly results through 2027, including how much of the CNY 1.75b in recent fixed income funding supports credit buffers.

HSBC's chief economist said that Asia's current financial environment has many factors similar to the period before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, or the Tom Yum Goong crisis, including the surge in US bond yields, the weakening of the yen, and the wave of confidence in tech stocks. However, he stressed that Asia today is much stronger than before, with the main risk now shifting to reliance on US AI demand. Frederic Neumann, HSBC's chief economist, stated in an analysis dated August 31 that the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen from a low of about 0.5% in August 2020 to around 4.79%, while the yen has weakened by about 57% from around 103 yen per dollar in January 2021 to 163 yen per dollar in July, before partially strengthening after joint intervention by the US and Japan. Nevertheless, Neumann pointed out that the differences between 1997 and 2026 carry more weight, especially the shift in Asian countries' capital structures from capital importers to capital exporters, making higher dollar funding costs no longer a vulnerability. But the new risk is the reliance on the growth of the US AI hardware market, which is a key driver of electronics exports from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore. If AI investment slows or the yen fluctuates sharply, demand for Asian electronics could decline rapidly and impact the region's growth.