CH. Karnchang PCL

Research by Asia Plus Securities assesses that a water management megaproject with a combined value of 165,000 million baht will support the growth of the construction contracting sector over the medium to long term. The project aims to cut flood damage by about 16,930 million baht per year and reduce flooded area by 3.48 million rai. Construction is expected to begin in 2027 and take eight years. Among the stocks expected to benefit, Asia Plus names CK as its top pick with a target price of 24 baht on the prospect of winning work directly, while STECON carries a target price of 23 baht on expectations it will benefit from large project contracts. Also in the frame are UNIQ, which has opportunities from large project work, and ITD, which is involved in earthworks and drainage systems. In the construction materials group, SCC, SCCC and TPIPL stand to benefit from project demand for materials. Factors to watch include the project's funding sources, land expropriation, the timing of bidding, and contract signing, all of which will affect progress and the chances that construction companies win work from the project.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, is advising investors to raise their cash allocation to 30-40% of their portfolios to reduce risk from volatility and wait for the right moment to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks. The recommendation comes amid pressure from the Persian Gulf situation, where the US Department of Defense is preparing to send another aircraft carrier along with more than 10,000 marines into the area if Donald Trump escalates his handling of Iran. That has pushed Brent crude to 102.3 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, European inflation in September came in higher than expected in several countries, with France at 3.0%, Spain at 4.9%, Italy at 4.1% and Germany at 3.3% year on year, driving overall eurozone inflation to 3.7% year on year. On the Thai side, the stock market saw net selling of 771 million US dollars, as 10-year bond yields worldwide rose by 0.20% to 1.50% over the past month, pressuring Thailand's market earnings yield gap down to 3.7% from 5.3% early in the year, while the baht weakened into a range of 35 to 37 baht per dollar. However, the weaker baht is a positive for three main business groups: exporters such as TU, ITC and CPF; the medical group such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9; and the tourism group such as AOT and CENTEL. In addition, the research team has selected five standout stocks for the day: AMAT01, MRVL06, KCE, SCC and CK. KCE is expected to see third and fourth quarter profits recover both quarter on quarter and year on year, benefiting from a shortage of PCB circuit boards. SCC drew a positive market response after excluding its olefins business, while CK benefits from accelerated disbursement and government project bidding, with third quarter results expected to mark the year's peak.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends that investors raise their cash holdings to 30% - 40% of their portfolios and shift strategy toward seeking out "stocks resilient to selling pressure" to cope with pressure on the Thai capital market from both domestic and foreign sources, particularly the selling by foreign investors who dumped Thai stocks for 7 consecutive trading days between September 22 and 30, totaling more than 30,572 million baht, pushing trading value to exceed 100 billion baht. The safe-haven stocks are divided into two main groups. The first group benefits from the weak baht amid foreign selling, namely CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA. The second group consists of low-volatility stocks entering their high season (Defensive & Healthcare), namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9. Meanwhile, the 5 standout stocks and DRs recommended to cope with the volatile market conditions are AAPL80, on the positive factor of the upcoming launch of 3 new smartphone models in the middle of this month; GOOGL01, on positive sentiment from the launch of the AI model "GEMINI 4 ARGON" that has risen to number 1 in the world; BDMS, on its third-quarter 2026 operating results that are clearly recovering, with revenue in July-August growing 8-9% compared with the same period last year, while the share price remains a laggard; CK, after the unlocking of the barcode law issue supports progress on the 2027 budget and new bidding projects, along with receiving dividends from its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW; and ITC, whose fourth-quarter 2026 profit trend is expected to recover strongly compared with the previous quarter and which is a stock that directly benefits from the weakening baht trend.

Asia Plus Securities assessed the investment climate for October 1, 2026, saying the Thai capital market is facing pressure on all sides. Foreign investors net sold Thai stocks over seven consecutive trading days for a cumulative 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, while only four SET100 companies closed higher. The main pressure came from the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while the August 2026 PCE index grew 3.4% year on year, still above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target. Domestically, there were flash floods, with preliminary damage estimates for one week reaching as high as 5 billion to 10 billion baht, potentially slowing third-quarter 2026 GDP growth to 2.1% to 2.2%, along with airport baggage problems that hurt the tourism atmosphere during Golden Week, and a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.45%, close to the 70% ceiling. The research team therefore recommends raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of portfolios and selecting stocks resilient to selling pressure, highlighting five top picks: AAPL80, GOOGL01, BDMS, CK and ITC.

Pi Securities reported that foreign investors net sold 10.7 billion baht of Thai stocks, bringing cumulative net selling to 30.5 billion baht since September 22. Part of this is believed to stem from concerns over domestic flooding along with profit-taking. Pi Securities noted that the flooding factor may have less impact than the question of whether the outstanding profits of the energy and petrochemical sectors next year can match this year's, compared with the consensus EPS forecast of 117 baht per share. Pi Securities estimates the SET range at 1,545-1,570 points, suggesting investors may trim their portfolios somewhat and focus on defensive sectors such as communications, hospitals, exports, construction contracting, and industrial estates. Its recommended stocks include CK with a target price of 23.10 baht, based on progress in the government's approval of large-scale projects; most recently, three Phase 2 double-track railway projects worth a combined total of over 100 billion baht were approved. It also recommends WHA with a target price of 5.60 baht, based on expectations that data center factories will be completed and boost the earnings of WHAUP, in which WHA holds a 70% stake. In the US market, the DJIA closed down 444 points, or 0.86%, overnight, after PCE inflation expanded 3.4%, below the market's expectation of 3.7% year-on-year, but rising oil prices pressured US government bond yields higher. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 62% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting.

The Cabinet has approved the Chai Nat–Pa Sak–Gulf of Thailand flood diversion canal project, with total investment of approximately 165 billion baht, one of Thailand's largest megaprojects in years. The project aims to create a new water diversion route from the upper Chao Phraya basin directly to the Gulf of Thailand, improving drainage efficiency and reducing flood risk in the central region, Bangkok, and surrounding provinces. The government estimates that once completed, it will reduce flooded area by about 3.48 million rai, add roughly 1.555 billion cubic metres of water storage capacity, and cut economic damage from flooding by about 16.93 billion baht per year. Under the implementation timeline, feasibility studies and design are set for 2026, with construction of phase one beginning in 2027. From 2028 to 2030, the drainage canal, sluice gates, and land acquisition will be carried out. From 2031 to 2033, main structures will be built and systems tested, before full operation in 2034. Asia Plus Securities said the construction contracting group will be the first direct beneficiary, with CK, STECON, and UNIQ standing out as stocks with strong potential to win contracts, while ITD is likely to benefit from its expertise in earthworks and drainage systems. The construction materials group, including SCC, SCCC, and TPIPL, will see support later in the materials usage cycle. Factors to watch are clarity on funding sources, the land acquisition or expropriation process, and the timetable for opening bidding on each contract, with delays in these steps posing a key risk that could push the transmission of benefits later than planned.

The Cabinet approved the use of the 2026 central budget amounting to 4.73 billion baht to assist flood victims in 24 provinces. The Budget Bureau proposed that the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration first use about 2.97 billion baht of its own accumulated funds to avoid duplicate payments. Meanwhile, per-household payments, which the Prime Minister has capped at 9,000 baht, must pass eligibility criteria and a committee. The Board of Investment issued relief measures for operators affected by the floods, granting import duty exemptions for machinery brought in to replace damaged machinery and allowing damaged assets to be written off without tax liability. Stock market gurus noted that the relief money, at about 0.01% of GDP, still requires additional measures to be monitored, while funding for water management projects, sized at 0.87% of GDP, is expected to boost short-term sentiment. Investment theme stocks are led by contractors CK and STECON as well as banking stocks. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market yesterday saw the SET INDEX close at 1,559.01 points, down 36.39 points, on a wave of selling driven by concerns over US bond yields, flooding in Bangkok and several provinces, foreign fund flows, and a weakening baht. The 10-year US bond yield rose to around 5.2–5.25%, pressuring banking stocks, especially KBANK and KTB, while DELTA, KTB, KBANK, and SCC were sold on concerns over flooding in the Chao Phraya basin. In addition, SET50 and SET100 will rebalance index weightings at the end of the quarter, with DELTA expected to gain weight from passive funds of about 2 billion baht. The chairman of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission submitted a letter requesting leave from the board meeting on October 1–2 amid a dispute over the status of the position following a Central Administrative Court ruling, paving the way for commissioners to elect an acting chairman to serve in his place. This is assessed to help reduce policy risk, open the way to expedite approval of the Phase 3 USO budget, and provide positive sentiment for lowest-bid stocks such as GST, INSET, TRUE, and ITEL.

Analysts at Daiwa Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited assess the direction of the stock market for October 2026, setting an index range of 1,500-1,630 points and expecting the market to return to focusing more on fundamentals during the mid-month earnings announcements, led by banking stocks, especially the views from the executives of large banks. External factors to watch include the BOT, Fed, and BOJ meetings, as well as the US midterm elections, with statistics indicating that Thai stocks often respond positively ahead of elections. Meanwhile, risks still stem from the Iran war situation, which has yet to find a resolution, and progress on government policies, including the Thai Helps Thai Plus Phase 2 tourism stimulus measures, the announcement of the 2027 Budget Act, the PDP2026 plan, and the momentum of a no-confidence debate motion. On investment strategy, long-term themes through AI and Data Centers remain favored, with five stocks recommended: ADVICE, BGRIM, CK, PLANB, and SCGP.

Krungsri Securities has resumed coverage of Ch. Karnchang, or CK, with a Buy rating and a 2027 target price of 25.35 baht, compared with a closing price of 17.90 baht, implying upside of about 41.6%. The valuation was derived using a sum-of-the-parts, or SOTP, method. In a research note dated September 29, 2026, the brokerage said the construction business is entering a new investment cycle driven by large infrastructure projects due to be put out to tender, expected to roll out gradually in the second half of 2026 through 2028 with a combined value of more than 770 billion baht. This will be a key factor in boosting the order books of major contractors, including CK. CK currently has a backlog of approximately 146.305 billion baht as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, which supports revenue recognition for at least another four years. The company holds a market share of about 38% among large contractors and has a business ecosystem together with companies in which CK holds investments, such as Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, CK Power, or CKP, and TTW. CK's share price currently still reflects a discount of about 45% to the value of its investments in BEM, CKP and TTW, wider than the long-term average of about 25.8%. Krungsri Securities expects CK to post revenue of approximately 44.866 billion baht in 2026, rising to 46.546 billion baht in 2027 and 47.856 billion baht in 2028, while normal profit is forecast at 2.257 billion baht, 2.3 billion baht and 2.416 billion baht, respectively.

Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, said on the stock news program Stock Market Insight that the current wave of foreign selling is driven mainly by US government bond yields having risen to their highest level in nearly 20 years, with the 10-year US bond yield at around 5.2%. As a result, some investors are shifting money out of risk assets into bonds, which offer higher returns, and if US bond yields do not fall significantly, foreign capital flows, or fund flows, are likely to keep flowing out of risk assets. However, KSS views the selling as a basket portfolio adjustment across regional markets rather than a targeted sell-off of the Thai stock market alone, since the Philippine, Indonesian, and Vietnamese stock markets have all weakened in the same direction. It assesses that the foreign funds that had accumulated net buying earlier are unlikely to flow out entirely, because this reflects short-term concern and risk reduction rather than a full withdrawal of investment from the Thai market. On investment strategy, KSS recommends a focus on selective buying, with the first top pick being Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, which stands to benefit from water management investment and government infrastructure projects. It recommends buying with a target price of 25.35 baht. The other recommended stock is Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or DELTA, whose third-quarter profit for the year 2569 is estimated at around 8 billion baht, up about 33% from the same period a year earlier, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 320 baht. In addition, DELTA has a supporting factor from passive fund portfolio adjustments. KSS estimates that DELTA's current weight has fallen below 8% and that there is room to increase the weight by another roughly 2% compared with the 10% ceiling, so about 2 billion baht from passive funds could flow in. As for the flood situation, Chaiyot said that if it intensifies and causes widespread damage, the Thai stock market may initially decline before investors turn to assessing government relief and economic stimulus measures. He cited statistics from the major floods in 2554, when after about two weeks to one month the index was able to rebound and rally by another roughly 10%, but stressed that past events should not be compared directly with the current situation.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities recommends three Thai stocks with company-specific positive factors and clear growth prospects, amid rising bond yields and a volatile stock market. COM7 is expected to post year-on-year profit growth in the third quarter of 2026, driven by its UFUND lending business and ICARE insurance, with momentum likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 during the high season. ADVANC is expected to show both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year profit growth in the third quarter of 2026, while its share price remains a laggard, up about 10% year-to-date, compared with TRUE, which is up 17% year-to-date. CK has seen its litigation risk ease, state budget disbursement for 2027 is proceeding normally, and its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW help reduce volatility in its consolidated earnings. The research team notes that the surge in Thai bond yields directly affects stock market valuations, cutting the market's appropriate P/E level as estimated by the ASPS research team from 18.18 times to 16.39 times, pressuring the SET Index over the remainder of the year down to 1,550 points if all assumptions remain unchanged. However, the index target could recover to 1,720 points if the market earnings yield based on the 10-year bond yield falls from 3.7% to 3.10%, or if earnings per share of listed companies rises from 95 baht per share to 105 baht per share, offsetting the lower P/E. US bond yields have risen quickly and sharply across both short and long maturities, driven by expectations of inflation risk from higher energy prices, boosting the chance that the Fed may raise rates or hold them longer than expected, plus an oversupply of US Treasuries. In Thailand, long-term bond yields rose significantly in line with the global bond mechanism from February to September, with the 10-year bond yield in particular climbing from 1.80% on 25 February to 2.17% on 31 August, then accelerating sharply over the following month to 2.40% on 29 September, comparable to a near one-time rate hike. Meanwhile, the short-term one-year bond yield remains at its previous level, as Thailand's policy rate stays unchanged in line with the direction of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited expects the SET Index to move sideways today, with support at 1,595 and 1,590 points and resistance at 1,608 and 1,612 points, amid pressure from the US-Iran war that is keeping crude oil prices and US government bond yields elevated. However, the market is supported by political clarity after the Constitutional Court ruled that the barcode ballot papers do not violate the constitution, which helps underpin government stability and facilitates the continuation of public investment policy. The tourism sector is beginning to recover, with the number of foreign tourists between 20 and 27 September 2026 at 482,000, up 4.1% week-on-week, while Chinese tourists rose as much as 42%. Meanwhile, concerns over AI safety have eased after NVIDIA launched a software platform to control Agentic AI. For today's top picks, Krungsri selected GULF, CK and TOP as its Alpha Espresso Picks, with 2027 target prices of 77 baht, 25.35 baht and 83 baht respectively.

Securities analysts at KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or KGI, said the Constitutional Court's ruling on September 28 in the case concerning the printing of barcodes on ballots in February's election, finding them not in breach of the constitution, is a positive factor for Thailand's political stability. The court reasoned that the barcodes were designed to track and control electoral fraud, and that the Election Commission has sufficiently strong controls to prevent voter identity data from being linked to vote results. However, the court ordered the Election Commission to avoid using barcodes in future elections. KGI views the ruling as positive for the economy and the stock market, because it allows the current government to continue its work and press ahead with measures to stimulate consumption in the final quarter of 2026, as well as investment stimulus measures such as public-private partnership infrastructure projects and Thailand FastPass in 2027. A key project the government aims to complete is the setting of new criteria for regulating data centre construction, which the cabinet targets enforcing in mid-October 2026. With clearer political stability, combined with the global upcycle in AI and the data centre industry, stocks linked to Thai investment remain attractive, especially construction contractors and industrial estates, as well as stocks with data centre exposure. In the construction contractor group, KGI recommends Stecon Group Public Company Limited, or STECON, for those interested in contractors that take on data centre work, and recommends Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, for investors focused on laggard stocks in more stable traditional projects. In the industrial estate group, it sees WHA Corporation Public Company Limited, or WHA, as likely to react positively to progress on data centre regulatory criteria. Among technology-theme stocks, it continues to recommend Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or DELTA, and Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, which it assesses as stocks that can speculate directly on the AI theme more than other stocks in Thailand's electronics group.

Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, sold a block of 200 million shares in Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM, at 6.50 baht per share, for a total value of 1.3 billion baht, on 24 September 2026. J.P. Morgan and Kiatnakin Phatra Securities acted as arrangers of the deal for institutional investors. The sale price was below the previous day's closing price of 6.95 baht, representing a discount of about 6.47%. Before the transaction, CK held approximately 6.459 billion BEM shares, or 42.26%. After deducting the shares sold in this transaction, its holding will fall to about 40.95%, equivalent to a sale of roughly 1.31% of all BEM shares. CK remains the largest shareholder. The goal of the deal is to increase the proportion of institutional investors in BEM rather than to signal that the company needs cash urgently. Meanwhile, the business relationship between CK and BEM continues, with BEM engaging CK to procure an additional 21 electric train cars and upgrade related electrical systems for the Blue Line electric train project, with a total value including value-added tax of approximately 7.2 billion baht.

Kasikorn Securities estimates the SET index will swing within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points today amid geopolitical concerns that have pushed Brent crude up 3.6% and driven the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.198%, an increase of 8.4 basis points. However, the latest progress shows that US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a step-by-step agreement that could see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, with Qatar acting as mediator. Meanwhile, talks between Trump and Xi Jinping are trending positively, focusing mainly on AI, which is expected to benefit the chip and technology industries further. Domestically today, attention is on Thailand's August export figures, with the market expecting 347 billion dollars, or a rise of 24.8% year on year, seen as positive for the export sector. Today's strategy focuses on gradually accumulating fundamentally strong stocks with positive catalysts, with DELTA and CK recommended. For DELTA, the fundamental price is 300.00 baht, viewing the recent correction as merely a short-term reset, while AI demand remains strong from accelerating hyperscaler capex and rising demand for power and cooling systems per rack. Gross profit margin and earnings are expected to recover in the second half of 2026 after pressure from chip costs, inventory, and product mix eases, with normal profit expected to post a CAGR of about 32% in 2026 to 2028. The buy recommendation is maintained, with the stock trading at about 63 times 2027 PER, below the target of 92 times. For CK, the fundamental price is 29.27 baht after selling 200 million BEM shares at 6.50 baht per share, reducing its holding to 40.95% and bringing in about 1.3 billion baht in cash for working capital. It is expected to recognize an extraordinary gain of about 242 million baht after tax in the third quarter of 2026, though net profit in that quarter will still fall year on year from a high extraordinary profit base, while normal profit is expected to be flat to slightly higher on construction work and lower interest expenses. The buy recommendation is maintained, with a positive view on liquidity and the opportunity to win government projects in 2027, where bidding is expected to open for no less than 200 billion baht. The stock trades at a 2026 PER of only 13.3 times, even though its share of profit from BEM will decline slightly.

Kasikorn Securities said CK sold 200 million BEM shares at 6.50 baht per share, representing 1.31% of all shares, cutting its stake from 42.26% to 40.95%. The transaction was executed through J.P. Morgan and KKPS, and the proceeds will be used for working capital and general operations. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, CK's cost basis on its BEM stake was 4.99 baht per share. The sale will generate a profit of 303 million baht and net profit after tax of about 220 million baht, to be recognised in the third-quarter 2026 statements. For the third quarter of 2026, net profit is expected to remain lower year on year, because the third quarter of 2025 had a high base from an extraordinary gain of about 874 million baht on the sale of investments. On a normalised basis, however, profit is expected to be flat to slightly better year on year, driven by accelerating construction work and lower interest expenses. Kasikorn Securities maintained its Buy rating on CK with a target price of 29.27 baht, expecting at least 200 billion baht of public-sector work to be put out to tender in 2027, comprising motorway and rail projects already approved by the Cabinet this year. CK focuses mainly on public-sector contracts and has historically had a win rate of about 25%. The stock currently trades at a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of only 13.3 times, versus the target price's 20 times 2026 earnings, 18.8 times 2027 earnings, and a 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities said that on September 23, 2026 in New York, the US-ASEAN Business Council and the US Chamber of Commerce organized a meeting bringing senior executives from leading companies together with the Prime Minister of Thailand. The government reaffirmed Thailand's position as a regional hub and gateway to the 700-million-person ASEAN market, while accelerating the finalization of trade agreement terms with the United States and facilitating investment through improvements to the Thailand Fast Pass system. This helped push the value of investment promotion applications in the first half of 2026 to 44 billion US dollars, up 37% year on year, with a goal of lifting Thailand's competitiveness into the world's top 20 by 2030. Yesterday, on September 24, 2026, the Prime Minister visited Google's office at Pier 57 and held talks with Ruth Porat, President and CIO of Alphabet and Google. Google confirmed its investment in the EEC area of Chonburi province through an environmentally friendly data center development plan and a Google Cloud Region project in Bangkok, with a combined value of 1 billion US dollars, or about 36 billion baht. It also plans to establish an Open Data institute to develop digital workforce skills and create opportunities for Thai startups. The analysts therefore view the trade negotiations, progress on Thailand Fast Pass, and the clarity of real investment money at the level of 36 billion baht from a giant like Google as significantly boosting confidence in attracting FDI in technology and clean energy to relocate and expand investment into Thailand, especially the development of Green Data Center standards and SI technology, which will accelerate demand for digital infrastructure, namely data centers, cloud network systems, renewable power, and telecommunications equipment. The advance discussions also help build strong momentum and pave the way for the signing of MOUs or actual investment agreements during the World Bank-IMF global meetings in Bangkok in mid-October, which will support a positive atmosphere for the Thai stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026. The investment strategy therefore recommends Selective Buy in three main themes expected to benefit. The first is the Investment Play theme, expected to benefit directly from the accelerating domestic investment cycle, comprising the industrial estate groups WHA and AMATA, the renewable power plant groups GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, and GUNKUL, the contractors STECON and CK, and the digital infrastructure groups ADVANC, TRUE, and INSET. Next is the Banking Re-rating Play theme, which is seen as still having upside and the chance to be re-rated from accelerating loan growth driven by the private-sector investment cycle that is beginning, and the end of the interest rate cutting cycle, namely BBL, KBANK, and KTB. Finally, the Consumption Play theme will benefit in the short term from accelerating user numbers driven by travel by the US executive delegation and global participants in the World Bank-IMF meetings in October, while in the long term it will benefit from an overall stronger domestic economy, namely the tourism groups AOT, CENTEL, ERW, and MINT, and the commerce groups CPALL, CRC, and CPN.

Yuanta Securities assesses that the construction contractor sector is entering a new investment cycle, selecting CK as its top pick with a target price of 27.00 baht, as it expects the company to benefit most from an acceleration in government projects. The company plans to bid on government projects worth a combined total of more than 770 billion baht, which will help build long-term earnings visibility, and it also has the opportunity to win additional data center work in the future. Meanwhile, public infrastructure projects in the pipeline are worth more than 1.32 trillion baht, while private investment is also growing strongly. For CK, normal profit in the second half of 2026 is expected to grow compared with the first half, driven by its share of profit from CKP and BEM, though it will still decline from a year earlier due to the high base. As for STECON, profit is expected to soften compared with the high base in the first half, but construction revenue is expected to grow from the first half on faster recognition of data center revenue. The research team maintains its overweight weighting on the construction contractor sector, given its positive view on the start of a new government investment cycle after political uncertainty began to ease and mega projects gradually moved into the bidding and construction phase, as well as growth in private investment, especially data centers, which will replenish backlogs and support revenue growth going forward.

An analysis of the construction contractor sector by Asia Plus Securities indicates that the passage of the annual budget expenditure bill for fiscal year 2027, worth 3.788 trillion baht, marks the start of a new round of accelerated public investment, with investment spending reaching approximately 789 billion baht, or 20.8% of the total budget. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport is preparing to push forward a total of 262 investment projects covering roads, railways, electric trains, ports, and airports. Local budgets of nearly 395 billion baht will help increase construction and maintenance work in the regions. The brokerage views the construction contractor group as the most direct beneficiary and assesses that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, and STECON Group Public Company Limited, or STECON, are the most closely linked to the acceleration of budget disbursement. It recommends "Buy" on CK with a fair value of 24 baht and "Buy" on STECON with a fair value of 23 baht. For the construction materials group, it views SCC, SCCC, and TASCO as beneficiaries, with TASCO set to gain support from budgets for road and highway network maintenance. Meanwhile, Pi Securities has a consistent view, saying it is beginning to see positive signals for a new round of government auctions. Since the start of 2026, CK has signed new work that is largely additional work from existing projects worth only about 870 million baht, causing its backlog to fall from more than 168 billion baht early in the year to about 146 billion baht at the end of the first half of 2026. However, the direction of new work has become clearer after the Cabinet resolved on September 1, 2026, to approve the continuation of three double-track railway projects with a combined value of more than 106 billion baht, comprising the Chumphon-Surat Thani section worth 36.892 billion baht, the Surat Thani-Hat Yai Junction section worth 61.534 billion baht, and the Hat Yai Junction-Padang Besar section worth 8.371 billion baht. Bidding is expected to open in early 2027. These projects are part of Phase 2 of the double-track railway program, which has six projects in total. Pi Securities views the opening of bidding for double-track railway projects worth more than 100 billion baht as an opportunity for CK to bid for all of them, expecting the three projects to be divided into about five contracts. If it wins new work, this would be upside to Pi Securities' 2027 revenue forecast of 42.134 billion baht, since the forecast does not yet include the new work to come. In addition, CK has the opportunity to win two other large projects related to Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM: the installation of systems for the Purple Line South electric train, worth approximately 30 billion baht, and the Double Deck expressway project, worth approximately 35 billion baht. Pi Securities maintains its "Buy" recommendation on CK with a fair value of 23.10 baht, based on 1.3 times its 2026 book value.

Pi Securities assesses that CK is starting to see signs of new bidding activity, after the early part of this year saw only 870 million baht in new contracts signed, causing its backlog to fall from over 168 billion baht at the start of 2026 to 146 billion baht at the end of the first half of 2026. Most recently, on September 1, the cabinet approved proceeding with three double-track railway projects with a combined value of over 106 billion baht, comprising the Chumphon-Surat Thani route at 36.892 billion baht, the Surat Thani-Hat Yai Junction route at 61.534 billion baht, and the Hat Yai Junction-Padang Besar route at 8.371 billion baht. Bidding is expected to be held in early 2027. These three double-track rail routes are part of Phase 2 of the double-track railway programme, which comprises six projects in total, so moving forward on three of them is a good signal that other projects will follow. The research team views that with the contracts expected to be split into five packages across the three projects, CK will have a chance to win some of the bids, which would help support 2027 revenue above the research team's forecast of 42.134 billion baht, since new work had not previously been included. As for the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026, it is expected to remain at a high level, continuing from the second quarter of 2026, driven by the high season for CKP. In addition, there are two other large projects that CK has a high chance of winning because they are projects involving its subsidiary BEM: the electrical and signalling system works for the southern section of the Purple Line, valued at approximately 30 billion baht, and the Double Deck expressway works, valued at 35 billion baht. The research team therefore maintains its Buy recommendation with a fair value estimate of 23.1 baht.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends a Selective Buy strategy focusing on 4 industry groups: beverages and commerce, which benefit from lower oil costs and the Thai Chai Thai Plus measures; construction and construction materials, which gain from the passage of the annual budget expenditure act for 2570; media and advertising, which are set to receive money from the Asian Games sporting event late in the year; and international technology and cybersecurity, which benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure. It also selects 5 standout stocks for speculation: NVDA80, CRWD80, Carabao Group Public Company Limited, or CBG, CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, and Plan B Media Public Company Limited, or PLANB. CK is supported by the approval of the 2570 budget and expectations of growing backlog, while PLANB is entering the high season for late-year advertising spending, with short-term speculation from sending two representatives to sit as directors at Com Seven Public Company Limited, or COM7. ASPS assesses that global capital markets and the Thai stock market are likely to face volatility from the strict monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Most recently, the FOMC committee resolved to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, and signaled through the Dot Plot a stricter path than the market expected. Sixteen committee members indicated they may raise rates at least one more time this year, and another four members saw a 0.50% increase before holding rates steady throughout 2570, then gradually cutting only once a year to a level of 3.6% in 2572.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

The Cabinet, during its mobile meeting in Songkhla Province, approved three projects under the second phase of the southern dual-track railway, with a total investment of 107 billion baht. These include the Chumphon–Surat Thani, Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction, and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar routes. The government will bear all costs, and construction is set to begin in fiscal year 2026. Meanwhile, three other routes in the northern and northeastern regions received in-principle approval for further detailed studies. Kasikorn Securities' research division views this as positive for construction and building materials companies, particularly CK and STECON, as there is potential for their backlogs to increase with the tendering of new infrastructure projects.

The Cabinet has approved the second phase of the southern dual-track railway project, comprising three routes with a total investment of 106,798.32 million baht. Bidding is expected to open between late 2026 and early 2027. Brokers view that CH. Karnchang (CK) will benefit the most, given its expertise in large-scale state infrastructure projects, and is expected to secure at least 27,000 million baht in contracts, while STECON is expected to secure around 21,000 million baht. The three routes include: Chumphon–Surat Thani (36,892.32 million baht), Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction (61,534.55 million baht), and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar (8,371.45 million baht). The government will bear all costs. This approval will bolster CK's backlog and provide upside to its share price from the current target of 23 baht. Other construction contractors such as ITD, UNIQ, and NWR also have opportunities to participate in the bidding, while construction material companies like SCC, SCCC, and TASCO will benefit from increased demand for cement and steel.

Asia Plus Securities stated that the SET Index's overall picture is just waiting for a continued rebound after holding above the 1580-point base, which is the second-level Buy Zone of 1575-1585 points. The next resistance is at 1615 points; breaking through it would open strong upside. For S50U26, it recommends Long at 1060 points, waiting for a bounce to take profits at 1080-1100 points, or averaging Long at 1045-1050 points with a Cut below 1040 points. First point: G20 opens the way to rescue the global economy, despite the US threatening additional sanctions on Iran, which could impact oil and financial markets. In the short term, it gives positive weight to upstream energy to hedge against the risk of rising oil prices, supporting PTTEP, PTT, and BCP. Be cautious of stocks sensitive to energy costs and slowing global economy, such as IVL, PTTGC, SCC, AAV, BA, PSL, TTA, and RCL. Second point: The Cabinet approved a 400 billion baht energy fund to stimulate the economy and boost Thai energy megaprojects. It approved a decree to borrow 400 billion baht to alleviate the energy crisis and invest in energy transition projects, divided into 200 billion baht for public assistance and 200 billion baht for energy investment. Standouts: GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, CK, and WHA. Third point: The mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla is set to approve the second phase of double-track railways with 6 routes, totaling 316 billion baht, along with a 10 billion baht disaster insurance budget. Standouts: CK and STECON.

The mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla Province, scheduled for August 31 to September 1, 2026, is set to consider several large-scale projects that could generate investment in the South for years to come, especially the second phase of the Southern dual-track railway with a total budget of approximately 104.466 billion baht, covering three routes with a combined distance of 534 kilometers: Chumphon–Surat Thani (30.423 billion baht), Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction–Songkhla (66.271 billion baht), and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar (7.773 billion baht). If approved, this will connect the rail network from the lower central region to the Malaysian border, reduce logistics costs, and enhance long-term economic potential. Stocks expected to benefit include construction contractors such as CK, STECON, ITD, UNIQ, and NWR, as well as construction material companies like SCC, SCCC, and TASCO. Additionally, there are proposals from five southern provinces totaling 199 projects with an initial budget of over 57 billion baht, which could support water management and utility stocks such as FLE, UBA, and WIIK, as well as tourism and retail groups like AOT, AAV, CENTEL, ERW, SHR, CPALL, and CRC. However, most benefits are medium to long term and depend on actual approvals and bidding. Furthermore, there are projects for the Songkhla Lake Bridge and the Lanta Island Bridge with a combined budget of approximately 6.7 billion baht, expected to be completed by 2029, but the main contractor is a foreign company, CHEC Construction (M) Sdn Bhd, so Thai stocks may only get subcontracting work or domestic material procurement. Investors should monitor approval resolutions, funding sources, contract divisions, and actual work secured by each company, as these are key factors determining the impact on profits.

CK, or Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, has announced success from its flexible cost management strategy, leading to growth in gross profit margin despite flat total revenue. As of the end of Q2 2026, the company had a backlog worth 140 billion baht and plans to add another 65 billion baht in new work by early 2027, including electrical and train operation works for the Purple Line, civil works for the Thai-Chinese Railway Phase 2 project, and the Suvarnabhumi Airport terminal expansion project. Meanwhile, the company also recognizes profit shares from BEM and CKP, as well as dividends from TTW, to diversify income, and has strengthened its financial position, with Net D/E decreasing to 1.0 times from 1.3 times at the end of 2025. Kasikorn Securities has raised its 2026 normal profit estimate by 28% to 2.249 billion baht and its 2027 estimate by 31% to 2.518 billion baht, while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation and increasing the target price by 5% to 29.27 baht.

Construction stocks rose, led by STECON and CK, after second-quarter 2026 results came in better than market expectations. STECON gained 4.40% to 19.00 baht on turnover of 519.31 million baht, while CK added 3.65% to 19.90 baht on turnover of 269.33 million baht. Kasikorn Securities said STECON posted normalised profit of 910 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 374% from a year earlier and 488% from the previous quarter, slightly above expectations. Its backlog stood at 114 billion baht, supporting revenue for about three years, with new work expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026 to support a new-work target of 50 billion baht. Kasikorn Securities maintained a buy rating with a target price of 20.62 baht. Meanwhile, Pi Securities kept a buy rating on CK, saying second-quarter 2026 net profit beat expectations at 800 million baht, prompting it to raise full-year 2026 profit by 5% to 2.237 billion baht. It maintained revenue at 44.803 billion baht and assessed fair value at 23.1 baht. CK had a backlog of 146.305 billion baht at the end of the first half of 2026 and targets new work of more than 249 billion baht from large government projects in the future.

Finansia Syrus Securities says Ch. Karnchang, or CK, has a chance to deliver 2026 revenue above its 40 billion baht target, helped by progress on the Orange Line rail project, while a pipeline of large state projects worth about 198 billion baht is expected to open for bidding from late this year into early next year. Third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to recover from the previous quarter, supported by profit contributions from BEM and CKP entering their high season, though it should still fall from a year earlier because of a high base. The broker keeps its 2026 normalized profit forecast at 9 percent below last year and maintains a buy rating with a target price of 23 baht.

Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, reported second-quarter results for fiscal 2026 in line with plan, with profit exceeding 800 million baht, supported by a stable construction revenue base, cost management, and growing share of profit from investments. The company currently has a backlog of 146.3 billion baht, which will be gradually recognised as revenue over the next three to four years, while continuing to add new projects to its portfolio. Managing Director Nattavut Trivisvavet said the company is ready to bid for government construction projects, especially large-scale infrastructure projects, to maintain its backlog at a level that supports growth and delivers good returns to shareholders.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council reported that gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 expanded 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter but above the market forecast of 1.7%. The main support came from private investment, which grew strongly in line with investment promotion applications, while private consumption slowed to 1.9% from 3.3% in the previous quarter amid higher domestic energy prices, and government spending was weak because disbursement had already been accelerated earlier. Yuanta Securities expects consumption to recover clearly in the third quarter from the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures, and government spending to accelerate toward the end of the fiscal year. It maintains a positive view on construction contractors, power plants, industrial estates, retail, and food and beverage, citing stocks CK, STECON, GUNKUL, GULF, FORTH, SAMART, EPG, BJC, CPALL and CBG. The planning agency also raised its GDP forecast for this year to 2.0 to 2.5% from 1.5 to 2.5%, and lowered its inflation forecast to 1.5 to 2.0% from 2.0 to 3.0%, which helps ease pressure on monetary policy tightening.

Bualuang Securities released its review of the financial statements of 11 companies, finding that 8 reported better-than-expected profits: GUNKUL, CK, SPRC, CPF, CBG, AWC, HANA, and BCH. STECON and BH posted profits in line with expectations, while BTS reported a smaller loss than expected. GUNKUL posted core profit of 567 million baht, 7% above expectations. CK posted core profit of 800 million baht, 17% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.20 baht per share. SPRC posted core profit of 7.09 billion baht, 11% above expectations, and announced a first-half dividend of 0.50 baht per share. CPF posted core profit of 4.57 billion baht, 13% above market expectations. CBG posted core profit of 736 million baht, 13% above expectations. AWC posted core profit of 232 million baht, above expectations. HANA posted core profit of 278 million baht, 25% above expectations. BCH posted core profit of 343 million baht, 13% above expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share. STECON posted core profit of 910 million baht, in line with expectations. BH posted core profit of 1.89 billion baht, in line with expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 4 baht per share. BTS reported a core loss of 601 million baht, smaller than the slight profit originally expected.

Dao Securities stated that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 800 million baht, down 7% from a year earlier but up 143% from the previous quarter, exceeding market and Dao forecasts by 17-18%. The result was supported by construction revenue rising 6% year-on-year, with gross margin expanding more than expected by 20 basis points from a year earlier and 70 basis points from the previous quarter, thanks to internal cost management efficiency. Other income slowed 25% year-on-year, mainly because CK Power posted foreign exchange losses, but rose 87% from the previous quarter on higher TTW dividends and a larger share of profit from BEM. Interest expenses fell more than expected as loans were gradually repaid. Dao maintained its 2026 normalized profit forecast at 2.5 billion baht, up 2% from a year earlier, and expects third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by continued construction revenue growth, easing interest expenses, and the peak season for CK Power. Dao kept its buy recommendation and target price of 23.00 baht, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation comprising 3.6 baht for the construction business and 19.4 baht for the combined value of its stakes in BEM, CK Power, and TTW. Although the backlog is gradually declining, it still helps secure revenue for the next three years, and there are additional catalysts from the Double Deck project worth 35 billion baht and the government's push for new projects.

Kasikorn Securities maintains buy ratings on CK and STECON, expecting strong second-quarter 2026 earnings and opportunities to secure major projects in the second half of the year. For CK, normalized profit is forecast at 725.7 million baht, down 1 percent from a year earlier but up 120.5 percent from the previous quarter. For STECON, normalized profit is forecast at 888.4 million baht, up 362.5 percent from a year earlier and 473.7 percent from the previous quarter. Excluding dividend income after tax, STECON's normalized operating profit is expected to be 225.8 million baht, up 17.6 percent from the same period last year and up 46 percent from the previous quarter. The target price for CK is 27.98 baht and for STECON 20.62 baht.

Analysts assess the second-quarter 2026 earnings outlook for four companies in the CH. Karnchang Group. CK is expected to post a normalised profit of 725.7 million baht, down 1% from a year earlier but up 120.5% from the previous quarter, supported by construction operating profit accelerating 11.5% year-on-year. BEM is forecast to report a normalised profit of 1.01 billion baht, up 1.5% from a year earlier and 15.2% from the previous quarter, thanks to lower financial costs. CKP is seen posting a normalised profit of 202 million baht, down 43% from a year earlier but up 74% from the previous quarter, as it enters the high season in the third quarter. Meanwhile, TTW is expected to report a net profit of 686 million baht, down 14% from a year earlier but up 2% from the previous quarter, standing out as a defensive stock with steady cash flow and high dividend payouts.

InnovestX Securities states that the signing of an MOU extending the employment period for over four million Myanmar workers in Thailand by another five years will help unlock the most critical labour bottleneck for Thailand's labour-intensive industrial sector. It also aims to push bilateral trade value to 12 billion US dollars, up from around 7.4 billion dollars, through accelerating border checkpoint restoration, using local currency payment systems, and promoting infrastructure investment, especially the Dawei Special Economic Zone project. However, risks remain from Western sanctions that could pressure the valuation of stocks with concessions or direct investment linked to the Myanmar military government. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends speculative trading based on news factors for beneficiary stocks, divided into two themes: groups directly benefiting from more stable labour cost management, such as CK, STECON, GFPT, BTG, CPF, and groups benefiting from a recovering border trade atmosphere, such as MEGA, TNP, CBG, OSP, CHG, BCH.