Kasikornbank Public Company Limited

Tisco Securities sees Thai stocks entering a recovery phase, with listed-company profits in the second quarter of 2026 setting record highs in revenue, net profit and EBITDA, while valuations remain attractive. Excluding DELTA, the Thai stock market trades at a 12-month forward PER of just 11.8 times, and about 60% of Thai listed companies still trade below their book value. The Thai market also offers an average dividend yield of around 3.9%, higher than the regional average of about 3.4%. Apichat Poobanjerdkul, senior director of the strategic analysis department at Tisco Securities, said the Thai economy and stock market are entering a period of stronger fundamentals, driven by private-sector investment, the AI and data center investment cycle, and continued growth in electronic component exports. He added that there is also long-term upside from large-scale infrastructure investment, especially the PDP 2026 power development plan, which is expected to involve investment worth as much as 2 to 3 trillion baht and is initially expected to add no less than 0.5% per year to GDP growth, making it the most important structural positive factor for Thailand in several decades. Tisco Securities assesses key support levels at 1,560 to 1,580 points and 1,540 points, with resistance at 1,610, 1,630 and 1,660 points respectively. It recommends gradually accumulating during market weakness, and its top picks for October are BH, DELTA, KBANK, PTTEP, SJWD, TRUE and TVO.

KCLIMATE 1.5 Co., Ltd., part of the financial business group of Kasikornbank Public Company Limited, or KBANK, together with Siam Michelin Co., Ltd. and the Thailand Climate Business Network, or ThaiCBN, announced a partnership to drive the upgrading of Thailand's transport sector toward a low-carbon transport system. The collaboration was launched at the MICHELIN FLEET PARTNER RECOGNITION 2026 at the Talent Campus of the Michelin plant in Laem Chabang, an event held to honour freight and passenger transport operators committed to raising operational efficiency alongside safety and environmental responsibility. Thekking Ausirichaiwate, Managing Director of KCLIMATE 1.5 Co., Ltd., said the partnership aims to support transport and logistics operators in calculating, analysing and systematically managing greenhouse gas emissions in line with international standards, and in using that data to plan fleet efficiency improvements, cut fuel use and reduce operating costs, through the transfer of the Decarbonize 3D Model. Natchanon Manprasat, Director of the Commercial Tyre Business Group for Thailand at Siam Michelin Co., Ltd., said the push for the Green Freight concept under the ThaiCBN network focuses on raising operational efficiency alongside safety, through a comprehensive approach spanning improved load efficiency, fewer empty runs and route planning, as well as tyre and vehicle management. Michelin is offering tyre solutions including its Energy range, the Multi-life approach and Tire Check services to cut costs, enhance safety and reduce vehicle downtime. In addition, Phumrapee Tangjakkrawaranan, a representative of the ThaiCBN network secretariat, exchanged views with representatives from the Department of Land Transport, Thairath Logistics Co., Ltd. and Mon Transport Co., Ltd. The key takeaway reflected the Power of Partnership concept, which helps turn sustainability goals into tangible business results, including lower costs, higher efficiency, greater safety and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The ThaiCBN network will continue to promote Green Freight through building collaborative networks and scaling up good practices in the transport sector.

CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that the combined net profit of the eight banks covered by its analysts in the third quarter of 2026 will come to 57.4 billion baht, down 9.2% from the same period a year earlier but up 1.8% from the previous quarter. The decline is pressured by an overall commercial banking sector loan book that is trending toward slower expansion, based on monthly loan data from the Bank of Thailand for August 2026, which showed that large corporate customers of Bangkok Bank, or BBL, and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, made substantial debt repayments. As a result, the combined loans of the banks covered by the analysts fell 0.1% in August from the previous month, though they still grew 3.0% from the same period a year earlier and are up 2.4% since the start of the year. The banks still posting positive loan growth are led by Thai Credit Bank, or CREDIT, Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. Pre-provision operating profit is expected to fall 6.8% from the same period a year earlier but rise 1.7% from the previous quarter, while the net interest margin is expected at 2.89% and the non-performing loan ratio at 3.66%. Breaking it down bank by bank, KKP is expected to post the strongest performance, with net profit growing as much as 32.2% from the same period a year earlier, followed by TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, whose net profit is expected to grow 4.6% from the same period a year earlier. On the other hand, BBL is expected to post the weakest results, with net profit down 24.5% from the same period a year earlier, followed by KTB, whose net profit is expected to fall 16% from the same period a year earlier. On investment strategy, CGSI recommends maintaining a Neutral weighting and selects Kasikornbank, or KBANK, as its Top Pick for the sector, given that fee income from wealth management accounted for as much as 18% of its non-interest income in 2025, and it expects a dividend yield of as much as 6.2% in 2026, beating the sector average of 5.6%.

ASL Securities said budget disbursement for fiscal year 2026 came in better than target, with 3.62 trillion baht disbursed out of a total budget of 3.78 trillion baht, or 95.83%, above the 93% target and 4.58% higher than the same period a year earlier. This reflects improved efficiency in channeling state funds into the economy, with capital expenditure accelerating notably year on year. Capital spending disbursed reached 586 billion baht, or 75.07% of the 781 billion baht investment budget, up 8.63% year on year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure set aside for carry-over disbursement in fiscal year 2027 stood at 193 billion baht, or 24.75% of the capital expenditure budget, and the government has set a deadline to accelerate the creation of commitments for both carry-over and fiscal 2027 investment budgets within the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Given these factors, ASL Securities views this as positive sentiment for groups tied to public investment. It recommends the construction sector, namely CK and STECON, which benefit directly from accelerated public investment and disbursement, and the banking sector, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, which benefit indirectly through increased liquidity flowing into the system and a recovery in loan demand. KTB stands out for its government customer base, while BBL and KBANK stand to gain from a recovery in corporate lending and the subsequent pickup in private investment.

K WEALTH, Kasikornbank, has launched the K-ALLROADS Series of funds, designed as a core portfolio for high-net-worth individual clients, diversifying investments across a wide range of global assets to cope with volatility and build long-term wealth growth. Dr. Triphon Phumiwasana, Chief Investment Officer of K WEALTH, said the concept of Prepare, Don't Predict shifts the focus from forecasting short-term market direction to building a disciplined and flexible portfolio, combining the expertise of KBank Private Banking with the knowledge of Lombard Odier, a private banking partner from Switzerland. The K-ALLROADS Series offers three fund options: K-ALLRD-UI-A(A) for those seeking a balance between returns and risk, K-ALLGR-UI-A(A) for those seeking to enhance the portfolio's growth potential, and K-ALLEN-UI-A(A) for those looking for additional return opportunities within a clear risk management framework. Mr. Marc Giesbrecht, Deputy Global CIO and Head of Investment Management at Lombard Odier, said that diversifying investments by asset class alone may no longer be sufficient, and that investment strategies anchored in risk management are becoming more important, through investment in multiple asset types such as commodities, inflation-linked instruments, and money markets.

Several brokers expect the Thai stock market to trade in positive territory today. Finansia Syrus Securities sees the SET Index in a range of 1,565-1,583 points, helped by US Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2026, which rose by 29,000, below economists' forecast of 84,000 and below the prior 12-month average of 45,000, while the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, higher than expected. As a result, the market has cut the probability of an October rate hike to just 22%. CGS International (Thailand) sees a range of 1,560-1,585 points, and DAOL sees a range of 1,545-1,552 up to 1,600 points. All three brokers are also watching Thailand's September inflation figures, with the market expecting headline inflation of 3.1% year-on-year and core inflation of 1.56% year-on-year, as well as the US ISM services index for September, expected to rise to 55.7, and the Fed meeting minutes due Wednesday night. The stock they all recommend is DELTA, with Finansia setting a 2027 target price of 290 baht and expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to accelerate to 8.3 billion baht and fourth-quarter 2026 profit momentum to reach 10 billion baht, lifting full-year 2026 profit to 32 billion baht. DAOL recommends bank stocks KTB, KBANK and KKP, along with data center and power plant theme stocks GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. It also noted that foreign investors were net sellers of Thai stocks to the tune of 850.49 million baht on October 2, 2026, and that the baht closed at 33.55 baht per dollar.

Krungsri Securities expects the Thai stock market to recover this week and test resistance at 1,594-1,600 points, with support at 1,556-1,547 points, after the market has already priced in part of the US central bank's rising interest rate cycle, limiting volatility from external factors. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's September 2026 survey on the difficulty of finding a job came in at its lowest level in five years, signaling that US labor data late last week will begin to slow and that the chance of a positive surprise beyond market expectations of 100,000 plus or minus is limited. On the domestic front, the market is closely monitoring the flood situation, but reservoir levels and late-season rainfall show no unusually severe signals, so the market is expected to recover if flood impacts remain within normal levels. Top picks this week are DELTA, which benefits most from the AI CAPEX cycle with a 2027 forecast target price of 320 baht; PTTGC, which has upside synergy from a petrochemical joint venture with SCC and a BB Consensus target price of 59 baht; and KBANK, whose share price has already reflected flood concerns with limited actual risk and a 2027 forecast target price of 300 baht. Last week's recommended stocks DELTA, AOT and AWC delivered an average return of negative 1.59%, still better than the SET Index, which fell 2.24%.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited maintain a BULLISH recommendation on the banking sector, expecting ROE in 2027 to rise from 2026 because the interest rate downcycle has ended, the cycle is returning, a new investment round is underway, and wealth management is growing. After share prices fell 2-8% between 25 and 30 September 2026, the market should have already priced in some of the negative factors from asset quality risk tied to the Bangkok flood situation and the risk from northern runoff. KBANK and KTB are chosen as Top Picks because they benefit most from this investment theme. For the third quarter of 2026, net profit for the banking sector under coverage is expected at 56 billion baht, down 10% from the same period a year earlier but up 1% from the previous quarter. Banks are expected to keep paying high dividends for 2026, with a dividend yield of 5-6%, because they have high capital funds, are maintaining medium- to long-term plans to raise ROE, and have no large new investments. For the second half of 2026, dividends are expected to offer a dividend yield of 3-5%. KTB and KKP are expected to pay higher-than-expected dividends for 2026 because they announced larger-than-expected dividends for the first half of 2026.

Krungsri Securities said the flood situation bears watching, with the risk of inundation from dam water releases as of October 1 holding steady from the previous day. Nationwide dam water levels stood at 81%, compared with the October 2021-2025 average of 80.4% and 92% on October 11. The western and eastern regions were highest at 96%, while the central region stood at 88%. The research team assessed risk area by area, citing the case of Amata City Industrial Estate in Chonburi province, where phases 6-9 were partially flooded, causing AMATA shares to swing wildly yesterday. Overall, however, the situation is expected to fall mainly under the scenario of flooding in riverside communities, similar to a normal year, and the risk of rain behind the dams during the short transition from the rainy season to winter in the October 5-8 period still needs monitoring. On the KSS Strategist View, even though the market is still waiting to assess those risks, the bright spot is that the SET has already priced in a 2.7% de-risking after the floods. It therefore maintains its view that the banking group, which was sold off on de-risking earlier, is the main group at 5.2% and looks interesting for re-accumulation, with a focus on KTB and KBANK.

Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

The Investment Analysts Association (IAA) released a survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 firms, forecasting that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and close the year at 1,680 points. The end-2027 target stands at 1,727 points. Market earnings per share are expected to average 103.38 baht in 2026, growing 16.41%, and 104.29 baht in 2027. The main supporting factor is the investment trend in technology and the AI supply chain at 96%, followed by listed-company earnings in 2026 at 88%, foreign capital inflows into the Thai stock market at 80%, and domestic economic recovery at 76%. The biggest risks are the US-Iran-Israel conflict situation and the direction of US interest rates, tied at 84%, followed by global oil prices at 80%. Under its economic assumptions, the association estimates average crude oil prices this year at 88.12 US dollars per barrel, GDP growth in 2026 averaging 2.20%, revised up from the 1.93% forecast in July, and GDP growth in 2027 averaging 2.07%. All analysts surveyed agree that the Bank of Thailand will hold its policy rate at 1% through the end of 2026. On investment strategy, the association recommends diversifying portfolios with 30% in foreign stocks or funds, 24.79% in Thai stocks or funds, 18.02% in bond funds, 10.21% in gold or gold funds, 10.02% in cash and short-term deposits, and 6.96% in property funds or REITs. The five standout stocks recommended by four or more firms are BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF, and CRC. The association also recommends underweighting energy, petrochemical, airline, and property stocks.

Koraphat Worachet, Head of Research at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, said on the stock-focused market news program on October 1, 2026, that the Thai stock market has a chance to begin forming a base from now on if there are no additional significant negative factors from the flood situation. He assessed that overall water conditions have about a 65% chance of having already passed their peak, although some areas still face the risk of another round of flooding, the severity is not expected to exceed that of the past weekend. On the impact, KSS stated that water levels in the northern region that could flow down and add to the situation remain at about 70-75% of the level seen during the great flood of 2011, and if the impact is limited to one to two weeks, it could affect GDP by about 0.3%, compared with 2011, when the impact on GDP reached as much as about 3%. On investment strategy, KSS recommended six standout stocks: KBANK and KTB in the banking group, on the trend of large corporate customer loans growing in line with investment in data centers and AI infrastructure; KCE and DELTA in the electronic components group, with KSS raising its target price for KCE to 69.70 baht; PTTGC in the petrochemical group, on its joint venture cooperation with the Siam Cement Group and the chance of support from the MSCI index review in November; and COM7 in the consumer and finance group, on the trend of continued growth in smartphone and IT equipment sales. It also gave a support range for the SET Index at 1,545-1,550 points and a resistance level at 1,580 points.

Asia Plus Securities stated that although the US PCE figure for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year, below market expectations, US 2-year and 10-year bond yields remain elevated at 4.89% and 5.28%, creating volatility for bank stocks in many countries. In the one month since Jackson Hole, the MSCI ACWI Banks index has fallen 3.4%, compared with a 1.3% decline in the MSCI ACWI, while the SETBANK index has continued to slide over the past two days, bringing its one-month loss to 4.3%, led by KKP down 6%, followed by KTB down 5.7% and KBANK down 5.6%, against a 1.9% decline in the SET. On the flood situation as of September 29, the Ministry of Industry reported that 40 provinces have been affected and that 204 SME operators have joined the debt-payment suspension programme, representing debt of about 769 million baht, a proportion that is not high compared with the 14 trillion baht in loans held by the eight banks. The research team estimates that every 0.25% increase in the risk-free rate above its assumption would reduce fair value by 4%, and views the correction in bank stocks as having already priced in some of the pressure from bond yields. It recommends gradually accumulating banks whose prices have fallen more than average over the past month, such as KTB, which has a fair value of 48 baht, followed by KBANK, which has a fair value of 259 baht and a PBV that has dropped to 0.9 times, compared with the sector average of 1.1 times.

Krungsri Securities maintains its Base-Best target for the Thai stock market index this year at 1,680-1,750 points, based on EPS of 103 baht, up from 98 baht, at a P/E of 17.0 times. The near-term momentum comes from the earnings quality of two main groups: those benefiting from energy and inflation, and those gaining momentum from the upstream AI CAPEX cycle, which is expected to help listed companies' profits continue expanding for at least two more quarters, namely the third and fourth quarters of this year. The research team assigns an Overweight investment weighting to three main groups: the group benefiting from the CAPEX cycle, covering the power sector with a recommendation for GULF, banking with a recommendation for KBANK, electronic components with a recommendation for DELTA, and construction contracting with a recommendation for SCC; the NTM Re-ratings group with potential to recover over the next 12 months or re-enter the MSCI index, such as THAI, PTTGC and TOP; and the agriculture and food group, covering agricultural substitutes, which benefits from Super El Niño, such as IVL. At the same time, it has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment rising 8.6% and exports rising 14.0%. Meanwhile, the pipeline of large-scale investment covers FDI/BOI, the PDP2026 worth 2.14 to 2.48 trillion baht, and mega projects worth 1.3 trillion baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects the index to move within a support range of 1,560 to 1,550 points and a resistance range of 1,680 to 1,750 points, with top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 being TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK.

Kasikornbank has launched a redesigned version of K PLUS under the concept "See clearly, find easily, use smoothly," developed from insights and feedback from more than 25 million users, aiming to elevate the app into a Trusted Financial Platform that brings all money matters together in one place. Dr. Pipatpong Posayanond, President of Kasikornbank, said this revamp began with listening to customers and studying actual usage behavior to better meet each customer's individual needs. The redesign covers the reorganization of product and service functions across transactions, savings, investments, insurance, credit cards, and loans, along with customizable K PLUS Widget shortcuts and a new transfer slip format that emphasizes clearly displaying the amount. K PLUS supports international transfers and scan-to-pay in more than 70 countries worldwide through the K+ Go Inter feature. For savings and investments, it offers a full range of services, from the K-ePocket savings deposit account and the K PLUS Global Savings account that supports multiple currencies, to investments and gold savings in baht and USD with leading gold shop partners. For credit cards and loans, customers can apply and learn approval results quickly, and manage credit limits and enable or disable online spending themselves. The new version of K PLUS will gradually become available to Huawei users starting 21 September 2026, Android users starting 25 September 2026, and iOS users starting 29 September 2026, with all users expected to be updated by 7 October 2026. Customers should update or download the app only through Huawei AppGallery, Google Play Store, and Apple App Store.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

Pie Securities stated that pressure from flooding on the Thai stock market is believed to be over, but global conditions remain pressured by the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have continuously hit new record highs amid concerns over rising inflation driven by energy prices, and investors demanding higher returns in line with risks from US debt problems. It assesses the SET range at 1585 to 1610 points and recommends increased caution while focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, such as banking groups BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; export groups ITC, TU; defensive groups like ADVANC; and energy groups PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC. Meanwhile, CME FED Watch gives as much as 70% weight to the FED raising interest rates at its October meeting. The DJIA closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and rising bond yields. Brent crude oil closed up 0.9% amid concerns about tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. Recommended stocks are ITC with a buy recommendation and target of 19.90 baht, expecting outstanding growth in Q3 2026 to 5,417 million baht, and KBANK with a buy recommendation and target of 259 baht, expecting net profit to grow 2% in 2026 and expand 4% in 2027.

Kasikornbank, or KBANK, has announced relief measures for customers affected by flooding across all 50 districts of Bangkok, as well as areas covered by Ministry of Interior declarations. The measures cover home loans, credit cards, personal loans, auto loans, and business loans. Individual customers can defer principal payments and pay only interest for up to 3 months on home loans, KBANK credit cards, Xpress Loan cash loans, and Xpress Cash cards. Home loan customers can also borrow additional funds for home repairs at a 0% interest rate for 3 months, with free collateral appraisal. Auto hire-purchase loans will have monthly installments reduced by up to 50% for 6 months, with the repayment period extended by 3 months. For business customers, existing credit lines can have principal payments deferred with interest-only payments for up to 3 months. Customers can submit requests for assistance from today until 31 December 2026. Customers with auto insurance and property insurance purchased through the bank and underwritten by Muang Thai Insurance can file claims via Line OA @mtifriend, email EMC_Motor@muangthaiinsurance.com, or the call center at 1484.

Krungsri Securities said the Thai stock market between 21 and 24 September 2026 moved above the 1,600-point level, supported by positive expectations that the US leader will meet the Chinese leader on 24-25 September, which boosts the prospect of further trade easing. Meanwhile, the electronics group gained positive momentum from AI after President Trump confirmed that the US will continue developing AI despite safety concerns, together with a boost from META's new AI that is helping accelerate demand. The refinery and petrochemical group, such as TOP, SPRC and PTTGC, rose on news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, which if implemented would tighten diesel supply in the market and push refining margins higher. The banking group, such as KBANK and BBL, also rose on positive sentiment, supported by news that Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness to Stable while keeping the credit rating at BBB+. The groups that fell more sharply than others included retail, such as CRC and CPALL, which faced negative sentiment from the Cabinet resolution extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure, and exporters such as CPF, whose share price fell in line with Chinese hog prices, which dropped 1.8% week-on-week to RMB 10.64 per kg, or 53.00 baht per kg, from a cost of RMB 13.50 per kg, because of oversupply. Meanwhile, Thai hog prices were flat week-on-week at 75.50 baht per kg, against a cost of 60.00 baht per kg. Market earnings for 2026F stood at 110.9 baht, up slightly week-on-week, with the groups whose estimates were revised up being petrochemicals and packaging, while the groups revised down were agriculture and property. Last week, capital flowed out of Asia excluding Japan by a total of 1.661 billion dollars, with Thailand seeing an outflow of 95 million dollars, split into net stock sales of 107.5 million dollars and net bond buying of 12 million dollars. The baht was flat at 33.3 baht.

Pie Securities issued an analysis of banking stocks, expecting loan growth in the third quarter of 2026 to be flat compared with the previous quarter amid slowing economic activity. It expects loan growth to return in the fourth quarter of 2026 on seasonal factors from exports and accelerating household spending. For third-quarter 2026 results, profits are expected to decline from the same period a year earlier under pressure from lower net interest margins and reduced investment gains. The research team estimates that banking-sector net profit will fall 1% year on year in 2026 and return to growth of about 3% year on year in 2027. On investment strategy, it assigns a market-weight rating to banking stocks and expects an average dividend yield of 5.4% over 2026-2027. It selects KKP as its top pick on stronger profitability, solid asset quality and a high dividend yield, and selects KBANK because of profit growth in 2026-2027, a share price below book value, and the potential for a special dividend that would lift its dividend yield.

TTB Wealth Securities said the 10-year US bond yield has climbed to 5.11%, the highest in 20 years, after several Fed board members voiced support for further rate hikes to curb inflation, amid rising oil prices and a still-strong US economy and labor market. It views this as positive for the banking and insurance sectors, including KTB, KBANK, BBL, TLI and BLA. Meanwhile, statistically, the groups that tend to outperform in a rising bond yield environment include AMATA, WHA, DELTA, AOT, CENTEL, CPN and PR9.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

Sansiri Public Company Limited, or SIRI, is proceeding with the gradual transfer of ownership for six completed projects with a combined value of 18.3 billion baht in the second half of 2026, supporting continued operational growth from the first half. Mr. Uthai Uthaisangsuk, Chief Executive Officer, stated that the projects being gradually transferred include dCondo Khiri, Via Ari, The Base Ratchada 19, Chuch Ratchathewi, and The Standard Residences Hua Hin. The company has also partnered with leading financial institutions SCB, KBANK, KTB, and BBL to help real demand customers plan loans and improve credit, increasing the chances of successful ownership transfers. On revenue structure diversification, the company aims to raise the proportion of recurring income from its services and hotel businesses from approximately 15% of total revenue at present to 25% within three to five years. Meanwhile, analysts at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited maintain a buy recommendation with a fair value of 1.90 baht, noting that accumulated sales since the start of the year stand at 27.9 billion baht, or 68% of the 2026 sales target of 41.0 billion baht, and expect the residential business gross margin in the second half to recover from 26.4% in the first half, driven by high-margin condominiums in the backlog being gradually transferred.

Kasikornbank, or KBANK, disclosed that it has provided financing to Narai Hospitality Group to develop the Hathai project on the former site of the Narai Hotel in the Silom area. Mr. Thipakorn Saipattana, Senior Executive Vice President of Kasikornbank, said the project will help elevate Silom into an international destination and support the growth of Thailand's tourism industry. Mr. Natee Nithivasin, Chief Executive Officer of Narai Hospitality Group, said Hathai is not merely the return of the Narai Hotel but the creation of a new space for Silom. The Hathai project is being developed on nearly 11,000 square meters under the concept An Oasis in the City, designed by Heatherwick Studio together with a team of Thai designers, with a target of achieving LEED Gold and WELL Gold standards. The project comprises two leading hotels: Six Senses Bangkok with 101 rooms, and a new-look Narai Hotel, part of The Unbound Collection by Hyatt, with 245 rooms, along with more than 6,000 square meters of retail and community space. The project is currently seeking partners, operators, and brands interested in joining as part of its retail, shop, and restaurant space.

Bualuang Securities reported that the combined loans of the seven banks it tracks stood at 10.9 trillion baht at the end of August, flat month-on-month and up 3.4% year-on-year. The increase was led by KTB, up 0.3% on government-sector lending; TISCO, up 0.3% on business and SME loans; TTB, up 0.2%; and KBANK, up 0.2% on business loans. Meanwhile, BBL fell 0.7%, KKP dropped 0.6%, and SCB slipped 0.1%. Total deposits rose 0.5% to 13.2 trillion baht, led by TISCO, TTB, and KTB. Combined loans at the end of September are expected to remain flat as banks stay strict on loan approvals amid a slowing economy, though full-year 2026 loans could come in about 1–2% above the previous assumption, with KBANK, KKP, and KTB likely to exceed estimates by 1–2%, while TTB faces a similar degree of downside risk. On earnings for July–August, TTB and TISCO look set to stand out year-on-year, with TTB up 11%, TISCO up 9%, KBANK up 7%, KKP up 6%, and KTB up 2%, while SCB was flat and BBL fell 19%. Bualuang Securities maintained an equal-weight stance on the banking sector, seeing early signs of improvement in loans and the potential for clearer momentum in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) estimates that KBANK will post a net profit of 13.4 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 3.4% from the same period a year earlier and up 1.5% from the previous quarter, driven by higher fee income and gains from financial instruments, while interest expenses are expected to decline. For the nine-month period of 2026, net profit is expected at 46.9 billion baht, up 6.6% from a year earlier. Loans in the third quarter of 2026 may contract 0.3% from the previous quarter but still grow 2.6% from the end of 2025, and the loan contraction could push the NPL ratio to total loans up from 3.18% in the second quarter of 2026. The research team maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 53.3 billion baht, up 7.6% from a year earlier, and keeps its base price target at 261 baht. It also expects KBANK to pay a 2026 dividend of 15 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 5.8%, and a 2027 dividend of 16.50 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 6.4%, with a recommendation to gradually buy.

KGI Securities (Thailand) says large corporate loans grew strongly in August 2026, with short-term money market loans and interbank lending rising sharply at every bank except Siam Commercial Bank, which shifted its excess liquidity into bond investments instead. Overall money market loans grew 14% month on month, with BBL and KBANK posting the strongest growth among the large banks at about 18% month on month each, followed by TTB at 14% month on month and KTB at 13% month on month, while KKP recorded growth of as much as 36% month on month. Retail loans declined broadly, with only KTB lending aggressively, as most banks applied cautious lending criteria, including for housing loans and hire purchase loans, with SCB and TTB seeing their hire purchase loan portfolios contract because of stricter standards on electric vehicles. KTB, however, appears to have a more aggressive policy on housing and retail lending, which should be positive for its net interest margin, while total loans and money market lending grew 1.4% month on month compared with deposits at 0.5% month on month. KGI says growth in private investment accelerated in August, in line with the recovery in lending, and large banks should be the main beneficiaries, with KTB, KBANK and BBL standing out the most, while the momentum in private investment could drive full-year loan growth about 2% above the banks' financial targets.