United States Government Bond 10Y

Domestic gold prices opened on October 3, 2026, down 500 baht per baht-weight of gold from yesterday's closing price, according to the Gold Traders Association. Ornamental gold is selling at 66,700.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 64,384.52 baht per baht-weight, while gold bars are selling at 65,900.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 65,700.00 baht per baht-weight. Gold Spot stood at 4,140.00 dollars per ounce. In overseas markets, spot gold traded at 4,138 dollars per ounce, down nearly 1% after earlier touching a high of 4,227 dollars. Although US September non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000, below analysts' forecast of 90,000, and the unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.9%, up 4 basis points, continued to weigh on gold prices. Money markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates at its October 28 meeting with a probability of nearly 77%, and have raised the odds of a rate hike at the December meeting to 88%. Technical analysts note that key support for gold lies at 4,100 dollars per ounce; a break below that level could see prices test the July 29 low around 3,996 dollars and the July 17 low around 3,959 dollars.

Gold futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, October 2, with COMEX December-delivery gold falling $40.00, or 0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce, pressured by the dollar's appreciation this week and by 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which surged on Thursday to their highest levels since 2002. Early in the session, gold prices had risen more than 1% on news of a sharp slowdown in U.S. employment figures, after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected, while the August figure was revised down to an increase of 133,000 from the previously reported 162,000. Analysts assess that gold's direction over the coming months will depend on the stance of the U.S. central bank and how much weakness in the labor market it is willing to accept, while the Fed continues to give priority to controlling inflation. Since the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 20%, as investors worry that war-driven inflation will force the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. However, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, and the stance of at least two senior Fed officials who voted against a rate hike in October has led investors to begin expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting late this month, consistent with data from the CME FedWatch Tool showing that investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed rate hike this month, down sharply from 70% early in the week.

The U.S. dollar is strengthening on renewed Middle East tensions that pushed oil prices higher and on expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, with the dollar index at 101.7 as of Oct. 1, 2026, on track for a 2% monthly gain, its strongest monthly advance since June. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% on Sept. 16, and with the PCE price index up 0.3% in August and annual PCE inflation holding at 3.4%, still well above the Fed's 2% target, markets expect continued hawkish policy in the near term. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while WTI crude is around $92 a barrel as of Oct. 1, 2026, and flows through the Strait of Hormuz were expected to reach 7.4 million barrels per day this month, per Reuters. Against this backdrop, several ETFs tied to the dollar, energy, Treasury yields and Japan's currency could remain in focus, including the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP, with $430.30 million in assets under management and a 0.70% expense ratio, and the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund USDU, with $278.20 million in assets and a 0.50% expense ratio. Energy funds drawing attention include the VanEck Oil Services ETF OIH, with $1.90 billion in assets and a 0.35% expense ratio, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE, with nearly $40 billion in assets and a 0.08% expense ratio.

Futures linked to Canada's main stock index edged higher on Friday as investors awaited key U.S. employment data and assessed ongoing volatility in the global bond market. By 06:09 ET, the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had risen by 5 points, or 0.2%, after the S&P/TSX composite index finished down 0.2% at 35,154.76 on Thursday, its lowest close since July 20. U.S. futures also rose, with Dow futures up 200 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures up 32 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 215 points, or 0.7%, while Brent crude fell 2.4% to $99.83 a barrel. September nonfarm payrolls are expected to show 89,000 jobs added versus 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.1%, as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rates will need to rise by at least 50 basis points to curb sticky inflation. Nike shares slumped more than 10% in premarket U.S. trading after the company outlined plans to cut more jobs and overhaul its global divisions, and said revenue is expected to drop in the high single digit in fiscal 2027 against analysts' projections for a decline of around 2%.

Rising interest rates and US bond yields are weighing on small-cap, bank, and utility stocks in the United States, dragging down the Russell 2000 and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, with many market segments down at least 5% from their recent highs after the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. Although the S&P 500 sits less than 2% below its all-time high, rate-sensitive small caps and the two aforementioned sectors have faced heavy selling. Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last month for the first time in three years to curb inflation, analysts at iCapital told Bloomberg TV that most stocks in the market have fallen at least 5% from their recent highs, while some segments are down more than 15%, largely due to higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is on track for a seventh consecutive weekly decline, and if it extends its slide through Friday, it would mark only the third such streak in history, following the aftermath of the dot-com bubble in 2002 and the 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 has just posted its second-worst quarterly underperformance versus the S&P 500 since 1999, trailing the large-cap index by nearly 10 points and falling 8.5% from its August 14 high, bringing it close to correction territory. Zombie stocks in the Russell 2000 account for more than one-third of all companies in the index.

Olli Rehn, Bank of Finland governor and member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said on the 2nd that while energy prices are moving closer to the ECB's "adverse scenario," a sharp rise in long-term borrowing costs is holding back the spread of high energy prices into broader inflation across the economy. Euro-area inflation has run well above 3% in recent months and could approach 4% by year-end, twice the ECB's target. The ECB, which raised rates twice this summer, is under pressure to hike further. Speaking at a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board, Rehn said rising long-term yields slow growth and limit the extent to which the energy shock feeds into other prices and wages, adding that the outlook for growth and inflation is exposed to extremely large and broad uncertainty. Government borrowing costs have surged in recent weeks, driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields amid concerns that U.S. fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path, and by the world's largest technology companies issuing record amounts of bonds to fund AI investment. Rehn warned that borrowing by technology companies poses a financial stability risk because valuations are extremely high and a correction is possible, saying a sharp adjustment in AI-related valuations could spill over into equity and credit markets.

Global bond markets faced heavy selling pressure, driving borrowing costs from the United States, France and Britain to Japan up to multi-decade highs amid concerns over inflation, elevated energy prices and the prospect that interest rates may stay high for a long time. The 10-year US Treasury yield, a key gauge of global borrowing costs, climbed to 5.34% during trading, the highest since 2002, after posting its biggest quarterly rise since the start of the century in the three months through September, before bargain hunting helped the yield ease back to around 5.26% in late US trading. In France, the 10-year bond yield rose close to 5%, the highest since 2002, after the French bond market turned in its worst quarterly performance since 1987, while the yield spread with Germany sat near its widest since the eurozone debt crisis and the cost of insuring against a French default hit its highest since 2013. In Britain, the 30-year bond yield surged past 6%, the highest since 1998, and Japan saw government bond yields rise by double-digit amounts for a fifth consecutive quarter, something never seen before. The Institute of International Finance estimates that over the past year, developed economies paid more than 3.3 trillion dollars in interest on government bonds traded in international markets, more than the roughly 2.6 trillion dollars in estimated global AI spending, 3.1 trillion dollars in defence spending and 2.3 trillion dollars in clean energy. Investors are rapidly shifting their views, with the market expecting the Fed to raise rates at least three more times before mid-2027 and the ECB to raise rates another three times, by 0.25% each, also by mid-2027.

A report from the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, dated October 1 said the US manufacturing prices index rose to 77.9, up 6.8 points from 71.1 in August, with 58.6% of respondents reporting higher input prices, compared with 46.2% in August. The manufacturing PMI stood at 54.5, new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7. This broader spread of rising input costs increases the risk to Bitcoin's funding backdrop if investors price in higher interest rates ahead of the October 2 employment report. On the latest policy backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, raised its target interest rate range by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, and on September 29 New York Fed President John Williams said another increase could be appropriate late this year if the economy follows his projections. Meanwhile, a study by New York Fed staff in February 2023 found no systematic response by Bitcoin to financial and macroeconomic news, so Bitcoin's direction depends on how investors interpret the employment data and rate expectations.

Australian government bond yields are poised to fall below US government bond yields for the first time in more than a year, after the market anticipated that the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, while the US Federal Reserve still looks likely to raise rates further. The spread between the yield on 10-year Australian government bonds and that of equivalent US government bonds has narrowed to around 12 basis points, or bps, close to its lowest level since September 2025. Strategists from Barrenjoey Markets and Westpac Banking Corp. expect yields in the two countries to converge to similar levels in the coming months, while National Australia Bank, or NAB, believes the spread could turn negative, meaning Australian bond yields would fall below US yields. Kenneth Crompton, head of interest rate strategy at NAB in Sydney, said the bank's base case still expects the 10-year Australian and US bond yield spread to reverse in 2027, but that if it happens sooner, it would not be considered a major deviation from market conditions. He also expects that if the policy trajectories of the RBA and the Fed diverge as much as anticipated, the spread could fall back to around -20 bps by the end of 2027. Currently, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates three more times, by 0.25% each, over the next 12 months, while the market expects the RBA to raise rates only once more, reflecting the increasingly clear divergence in monetary policy trajectories between the two countries.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage came in at 7.28% this week, up from 7.03% the previous week, according to data released on the first by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Freddie Mac, reaching its highest level in about three years. The weekly increase was the largest in roughly four years. The surge in Treasury yields is behind the move, adding further headwinds for would-be homebuyers. Mortgage rates track closely with the US 10-year Treasury yield, which this week reached its highest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Mortgage rates published by the Mortgage Bankers Association on September 30 showed a similar trend, and also indicated that mortgage applications fell again in response to higher rates. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has risen by more than 1.2 percentage points over the seven months since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran. Bob Broeksmit, president and chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a statement that mortgage rates have risen for six straight weeks and reached their highest level in about three years, adding that home affordability and borrower demand have weakened in recent weeks as the high-rate environment continues to squeeze both prospective buyers and homeowners considering refinancing.

Asian stock markets opened lower today as investors worried that elevated oil prices could accelerate inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates high for an extended period. Rising US government bond yields, which have climbed to multi-year highs, also continued to weigh on risk assets. Japan's Nikkei index opened down 0.93% at 68,313.46 points, while South Korea's composite index opened down 0.47% at 6,938.27 points. The yield on 10-year US government bonds jumped to 5.327%, the highest level since April 2002, while the yield on 30-year US government bonds climbed to 5.678%, a 24-year high. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said US inflation remains above the Fed's annual target and that the Fed still needs to raise interest rates significantly. However, surging bond yields may help bring inflation under control, which would reduce the need for more restrictive monetary policy. In addition, the US government has told Germany and France to release emergency diesel reserves to help lower soaring global fuel prices, warning that without action the United States could consider banning exports of US diesel. Meanwhile, China announced it will suspend exports of oil products in October amid concerns about domestic stockpiles.

US stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending at 50,906.05 points, down 443.87 points or 0.86%, and the S&P 500 closing at 7,651.54 points, down 19.30 points or 0.25%, pressured by elevated oil prices and bond yields. The Nasdaq closed at 26,861.06 points, up 63.52 points or 0.24%, supported by buying in technology stocks. Headline PCE for August rose 3.4% year on year, below market expectations of 3.7%, while Core PCE rose 3.0% year on year, below expectations of 3.3%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 5.3% and the 30-year yield above 5.6%. Investors are therefore watching September Nonfarm Payrolls, which the market expects to rise by 98,000 positions, compared with 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate forecast at 4.1%. In European markets, the STOXX Europe 600 closed at 634.89 points, down 3.19 points or 0.50%, with bank stocks down 0.8% and insurance stocks down 1.4%. The DAX closed at 25,199.19 points, down 200.02 points or 0.79%, and the CAC 40 closed at 7,964.51 points, down 71.36 points or 0.89%, while the FTSE 100 closed at 10,606.00 points, down 30.71 points or 0.29%. In Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 opened at 67,106.52 points, up 352.80 points or 0.53%, boosted by buying in large technology stocks, while the KOSPI fell 0.8% and the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.09%. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index were closed for China's National Day holiday. Thailand's stock market is expected to trade in a volatile and consolidating range, with sentiment pressured by surging US bond yields and concerns over continued foreign fund outflows. The stock to watch today is THAI, after the cancellation or rescheduling of domestic and international flights between October 1 and 3, 2026, along with efforts to clear backlogged baggage at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which could weigh on confidence and the company's short-term operations.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on the 1st that further interest rate hikes may be necessary if the economy remains extremely resilient and inflation proves more stubborn than expected. In an interview with Reuters, Kashkari said he is "approaching with an open mind" how to proceed with rate increases, and that he does not "have a strong view on whether the October 27-28 meeting should decide on another rate hike." The Federal Reserve decided on a 0.25 percentage point rate increase at its September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Kashkari holds a vote on the committee this year and had voted in favor of the hike. Based on economic indicators released since the September committee meeting, Kashkari said "the U.S. economy was stronger than I had expected," and noted that "the inflation rate is still too high." He also said the Federal Reserve's current policy is not significantly restraining the economy, and that "no signs of systemic risk are visible in the markets," while adding that the banking sector needs to be monitored carefully given rapid changes in borrowing costs. The final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year will be held on December 8-9.

Bitcoin posted its strongest third quarter since 2017, gaining 43% across July, August and September even as long-term Treasuries lost approximately 7.7% over the same period. The divergence came as US Treasury yields surged to a 24-year high in a global bond sell-off, with the TLT bond ETF hitting an all-time low and gapping down further. Scott Melker, host of "The Daily Wolf with Scott Melker," noted that bitcoin traditionally performs poorly in the third quarter and that the large move arrived in August, preempting the expected four-year cycle. Melker argued that rising interest rates and dumping bonds, driven by fears of fiscal dominance and monetary irresponsibility, are precisely the conditions bitcoin was built for, which he said explains its outperformance.

U.S. stock futures opened October in the green, with the Dow up 179 points, the Nasdaq up 169 and the S&P 500 up 32 points, helped by Brent crude holding at $100 per barrel and WTI near $90 per barrel. Bond yields continued to climb, with the 10-year at 5.285%, the 2-year at 4.858% and the 30-year at 5.637%, keeping mortgage rates elevated. Initial jobless claims came in at 197K last week, down 3K from expectations and 1K from the upwardly revised prior week, marking the third-straight sub-100K jobless claims report. Continuing claims reached a new near-term low of 1.701 million, down 11K month over month and below the downwardly revised 1.712 million from the previous week, remaining near 60-year lows for a third straight week. Later this morning, September Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise 3.1% on the S&P print and 0.3 points for ISM, while August Construction Spending is expected to rebound 0.1% after a 0.5% decline a month ago.

Sterling traded lower on Thursday, with GBP/USD down 0.38% at $1.3215, as a global bond sell-off pushed U.S. and UK long-dated yields to multi-decade highs and kept the dollar near its strongest levels of the year. The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 5.340%, near a 52-week high, and the dollar index tested the year's high at 101.80, while EUR/USD fell 0.37% to $1.1288. UK 30-year gilt yields rose to 6%, the highest since nearly three decades, and London's FTSE 100 fell nearly 2%, adding pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of his first Budget this month. Softer-than-expected August PCE inflation barely dented rate expectations, and ADP data pointed to accelerating payrolls, with investors awaiting jobless claims and ISM manufacturing, where a headline of 55 is expected. ING's Chris Turner said the dollar will likely stay bid in October, and ING expects DXY at 101.50-101.80 today, with an upside breakout possible on strong payrolls or if European debt weakness weighs on the euro.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged to its highest level since 2002 amid a global bond selloff, after oil prices climbed on Middle East war tensions, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations that central banks worldwide may need to hike interest rates further. The US 10-year bond yield rose as much as 6 basis points to 5.34% on Thursday, breaching its previous peak set in 2007. Earlier in the week, the US 30-year bond yield also jumped to a 24-year high. Data from Bloomberg indices showed that global government bonds just suffered their worst quarter since 2024, while Thursday's selloff pushed the UK 30-year government bond yield to 6% for the first time since 1998. Some analysts and investors believe US bond yields could also reach that level. Steven Barrow of Standard Bank Advisory said the rise in government bond yields is a long-term structural development, with financial markets adjusting to a New Normal of higher yield levels. The market is now watching Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, with a Bloomberg survey of analysts forecasting a gain of 85,000 jobs in September. Investors are also tracking remarks from several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Chris Waller. The market currently expects the Fed to raise rates four more times, by 0.25% each, by the end of 2027.

In the US stock market on October 1, the focus will be on the movement of tech shares and the US September ISM manufacturing index. In the previous day's trading on September 30, the New York Dow fell for a third straight session, closing down 443.87 dollars at 50,906.05 dollars. The roughly 19-year high in the US 10-year Treasury yield weighed on the market, and rising crude oil futures prices amid difficult US-Iran negotiations heightened inflation concerns, leaving selling dominant, particularly in defensive shares. Meanwhile, some major tech shares were bought, and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended higher. On October 1, the US September ISM manufacturing index will be released at 10 a.m. local time, with the market forecast at 55.0, a slight improvement from the previous 54.6. Micron Technology's earnings for the June-August quarter, announced after the previous day's close, were strong, with both revenue and profit greatly exceeding market expectations on the back of expanding demand for artificial intelligence, and attention will be on whether this spreads a sense of reassurance about buying across tech shares today. Before the market opens, Accenture's earnings for the June-August quarter will also be released, with its fiscal 2027 outlook and progress in AI-related demand drawing attention.

Foreign investors net sold 635 million dollars of Thai bonds in September, the largest monthly outflow from the bond market since March, or the biggest in six months, amid a surge in US government bond yields and expectations of interest rate hikes that reduced the appeal of Thai debt. In the same month, foreign investors also net sold 781 million dollars of Thai equities. The selling pressure came as government bonds worldwide posted their worst quarterly performance since 2024, after oil prices hit 100 dollars a barrel. The yield spread between 10-year Thai government bonds and same-maturity US government bonds widened, with Thai bond yields sitting 298 basis points below US yields, close to a record high. Meanwhile, the baht swap market reflected expectations that Thai interest rates could rise by a total of about 42 basis points over the next 12 months, up from just 25 basis points expected at the end of August, as inflation pressure led investors to increase the weight they place on the chance that the Bank of Thailand will raise interest rates for the first time in three years.

Asia Plus Securities assessed the investment climate for October 1, 2026, saying the Thai capital market is facing pressure on all sides. Foreign investors net sold Thai stocks over seven consecutive trading days for a cumulative 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, while only four SET100 companies closed higher. The main pressure came from the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while the August 2026 PCE index grew 3.4% year on year, still above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target. Domestically, there were flash floods, with preliminary damage estimates for one week reaching as high as 5 billion to 10 billion baht, potentially slowing third-quarter 2026 GDP growth to 2.1% to 2.2%, along with airport baggage problems that hurt the tourism atmosphere during Golden Week, and a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.45%, close to the 70% ceiling. The research team therefore recommends raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of portfolios and selecting stocks resilient to selling pressure, highlighting five top picks: AAPL80, GOOGL01, BDMS, CK and ITC.

Asia Plus Securities stated that although the US PCE figure for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year, below market expectations, US 2-year and 10-year bond yields remain elevated at 4.89% and 5.28%, creating volatility for bank stocks in many countries. In the one month since Jackson Hole, the MSCI ACWI Banks index has fallen 3.4%, compared with a 1.3% decline in the MSCI ACWI, while the SETBANK index has continued to slide over the past two days, bringing its one-month loss to 4.3%, led by KKP down 6%, followed by KTB down 5.7% and KBANK down 5.6%, against a 1.9% decline in the SET. On the flood situation as of September 29, the Ministry of Industry reported that 40 provinces have been affected and that 204 SME operators have joined the debt-payment suspension programme, representing debt of about 769 million baht, a proportion that is not high compared with the 14 trillion baht in loans held by the eight banks. The research team estimates that every 0.25% increase in the risk-free rate above its assumption would reduce fair value by 4%, and views the correction in bank stocks as having already priced in some of the pressure from bond yields. It recommends gradually accumulating banks whose prices have fallen more than average over the past month, such as KTB, which has a fair value of 48 baht, followed by KBANK, which has a fair value of 259 baht and a PBV that has dropped to 0.9 times, compared with the sector average of 1.1 times.

Kasikorn Research Center reported that global gold prices fell below $4,200 per ounce in late September 2026, dropping $259 per ounce, or 5.8%, to a low of $4,110.55 per ounce, the weakest level since early August 2026. Meanwhile, domestic gold bar prices fell below 66,000 baht per baht-weight of gold, down 3,850 baht per baht-weight, or 5.5%, tracking the global market. Thai gold prices declined at a slightly slower pace than global prices, partly because the weaker baht helped limit pressure. The main pressure came from energy prices holding high amid conflict in the Middle East, which added to inflation pressure, prompting the US Federal Reserve to raise its policy rate at its September meeting and pushing US government bond yields sharply higher. Looking ahead, investors should monitor four key factors: the situation in the Middle East, the direction of bond yields, especially US bond yields, signals from the US Federal Reserve, and US economic data including inflation. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Consensus expect global gold prices at the end of 2026 may recover to around $4,465 per ounce, but Kasikorn Research Center believes the recovery may remain limited, given the prolonged Middle East situation, leaving short-term gold prices prone to high volatility, and market watchers should also consider the direction of the baht.