Bumrungrad Hospital PCL

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited estimates that Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, will have hospital revenue of approximately 6.75 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 8.3% from the previous quarter and 4.0% from the same period last year, exceeding management's guidance of about 3% year-on-year revenue growth. International patient revenue is expected at 4.579 billion baht, up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.6% year-on-year, driven by an accelerating number of travelers from the Middle East to Thailand, with about 70,000 such tourists in September 2026, growing 18.8% year-on-year. Thai patient revenue is expected at 2.17 billion baht, up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year. Core profit for the third quarter of 2026 is expected at 2.088 billion baht, up 10.5% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% year-on-year, on total revenue of approximately 6.77 billion baht. The gross margin is expected to rise to 53.2% from 53.0% in the third quarter of 2025, and the EBITDA margin is expected at 41.4%, up from 40.9% in the same period last year. Phillip views the third quarter of 2026 as the best quarter of the year, with the second quarter of 2026 likely marking the bottom of performance. Core profit for the nine months of 2026 is expected at approximately 5.759 billion baht, up 2.3% year-on-year, representing 72.7% of the full-year profit forecast. It maintains a buy recommendation on BH with a year-end 2026 target price of 200 baht per share. The business expansion plan continues with the opening of a hospital in Phuket in two phases. The first phase, spanning years one to five, or approximately the second half of 2027 to 2032, will gradually open 120 beds, and the second phase, spanning years six to ten, or approximately 2032 to 2037, will add another 92 beds, for a total of 212 beds, following a hub-and-spoke model. Factors to monitor include the slow recovery in domestic purchasing power and the conflict situation in the Middle East, which may affect the number of international patients and BH's revenue trend going forward.

Asia Plus Securities warns that the Thai economy is facing multiple compounding negative factors at once. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks on a net basis for seven consecutive trading days, totaling 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, with only four SET100 stocks closing higher. The main pressure comes from the 10-year US government bond yield, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while US inflation remains above the 2.0% target after the August 2026 PCE index expanded 3.4%. Domestically, the Royal Irrigation Department increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 2,500 cubic meters per second and expects water from Nakhon Sawan to reach 3,000 cubic meters per second on October 2. It estimates flood damage over one week could reach 5 billion to 10 billion baht and could push third-quarter 2026 GDP down to 2.1% to 2.2%. At the same time, during Golden Week from October 1 to 7, Thailand faces image risks from flooding and airport baggage problems, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 67.45%, near the 70% fiscal discipline ceiling. The research team recommends shifting strategy from seeking rising stocks to seeking stocks resilient to selling pressure, and raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of the portfolio, choosing stocks that benefit from a weak baht such as CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA, along with low-volatility and healthcare names such as BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9.

AIA Thailand has announced a major strategic partnership, called the Frontier Strategic Partnership, with VitalLife Wellness Center, an international wellness center under Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, to develop a new approach to healthcare for high-net-worth clients. Ekrit Thitimun, Chief Insurance Business Officer of AIA Thailand, said the partnership will elevate the health experience to better meet consumers' needs on a more personalized basis. The services offered cover in-depth health assessments, hormone balance and nutritional analysis, genetic factor assessment, consultations to design personalized health care plans, as well as rehabilitation and wellness services. AIA's high-net-worth clients can access the services through the AIA Prestige Club program and connect seamlessly with Bumrungrad Hospital's network of specialist doctors. Assistant Professor Dr. Polkrit Teekhareekul, Chief Executive Officer of VitalLife Wellness Center and Esperance, said the partnership expands the scope of wellness from specialized services to an ecosystem of life. More than 100,000 clients in the AIA Prestige Club program will begin accessing this new health care service starting in January 2027.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited has raised its 2026 SET Index target to 1,590 points from 1,550 points, but maintained a Neutral view because the overall market upside is not particularly high. Speaking at an online seminar titled "Decoding Thai Stocks, Fourth Quarter: Finding the Next Winners," the firm said earnings support from listed companies is not yet broad-based, with upward earnings revisions concentrated mainly in the electronics and energy sectors, while bond yields in several countries remain elevated, pressuring valuations of risk assets. On the Thai economy, Maybank expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, supported by exports, private investment, and a recovery in tourism, though the government's fiscal capacity has diminished amid a higher public debt level. For its fourth-quarter strategy, Maybank recommends focusing on adjusting weights between industry groups and selecting individual stocks rather than investing based on index direction. It highlights three standout groups: consumer finance, where valuations are starting to look attractive again, with TIDLOR, KTC, and MTC as top picks; tourism and transport, where earnings momentum continues, with AWC, AOT, BA, and MINT; and hospital businesses, which have stable revenue and specific supporting factors, with BH and CHG. At the same time, it advises increased caution in three groups: utilities and energy, which has been downgraded from Positive to Neutral; petrochemicals; and retail.

Asia Plus Securities said GLP-1 drugs, used to treat type 2 diabetes and, in some formulations, to control weight in obese patients, are becoming a theme that supports private hospital operators, after Thailand's Food and Drug Administration upgraded GLP-1 injectables to specially controlled drugs from 15 September 2026, requiring them to be dispensed by prescription and using a Track & Trace system to monitor distribution and reduce leakage outside the system. Novo Nordisk is pressing ahead with expanding the obesity and diabetes market, including clinical research in Thailand, after investing about 370 million baht in research and development between 2019 and 2023. The research team holds a slightly positive view on private hospitals, because tighter regulation is likely to shift the channels through which the drugs are accessed rather than reduce demand, and should draw users toward standardised hospitals and clinics. Business opportunities extend to consultation fees, laboratory tests, follow-up and care for comorbidities. The effect on short-term profit is limited, given a still-low revenue base and constraints on drug prices, access and competition. The research team keeps an overweight stance on the hospital sector and sees BDMS and PR9 as standout beneficiaries. BDMS is advantaged by a diverse patient base and a large hospital network, while PR9 stands out for its cash-paying patient base, service accessibility, value for money and specialised services. BH also benefits from a cash-paying patient base and high-spending customers, but the quantitative benefit is expected to be smaller. It maintains Buy ratings on BDMS, PR9 and BH, with 2027 fair values of 25.00 baht, 3.00 baht and 225.00 baht respectively.

Bualuang Securities, or BLS, remains positive on the Thai stock market, assessing that the index is likely to trend upward from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could reach a best-case target of 1,780 points before shifting into sector rotation. Its base case puts the end-2027 target at 1,710 points, based on earnings per share of 106 baht, down 4% from the same period a year earlier, with the overall profit decline driven mainly by an earnings correction in upstream energy, refining and petrochemicals. The main supporting factors come from three drivers: the global technology wave, an upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital. It estimates that every 10 billion baht in net foreign buying would lift the index by about 15 to 20 points. For its fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, it recommends a barbell approach. The first core focuses on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC. The other core focuses on power producers with structural growth, namely GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL. It also recommends retailers such as CRC and COM7, tourism names such as AOT, AWC and CENTEL, hospitals such as BH and BDMS, as well as 2027 growth leaders such as CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. In the first half of 2027, it advises rotating into groups that benefit from lower costs, such as CENTEL, before shifting to high-dividend stocks and companies with strong cash flows as the portfolio's core in the second half of 2027.

The research team at CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), expects hospital sector earnings to recover in the third quarter of 2026, forecasting that combined revenue for the six hospital operators under coverage will grow 11% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. The year-on-year increase is largely driven by the merger between RAM and THG. Excluding THG's results from RAM's consolidated financial statements, combined revenue is expected to grow 8% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. Most hospitals, with the exception of BDMS, should see revenue growth of about 5% year on year on the return of foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar and the Middle East. BDMS is expected to post the strongest revenue growth in the sector at 10% year on year, helped by a low base and the outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19. On net profit, CGSI expects the hospitals under coverage to post combined net profit growth of 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. PR9 is forecast to see net profit rise 11% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter to 248 million baht, while BCH will benefit from a higher share of Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment for complex diseases, putting its net profit for the first nine months of 2026 at 71% of the research team's full-year 2026 profit forecast. CGSI believes the sector's overall net profit has already passed its trough, and therefore recommends maintaining an Overweight rating on the sector, selecting BH and PR9 as its top picks on their higher share of foreign patients than peers and greater flexibility in adjusting strategy.

AIA Thailand has announced a major strategic partnership with VitalLife Wellness Center, an international health promotion center under the umbrella of Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, to develop a new approach to health care for high-net-worth customers. Mr. Ekarat Thitimun, Chief Health Insurance Business Officer of AIA Thailand, said the partnership will combine the strengths of both organizations to deliver a more distinctive and meaningful health experience. The services to be offered cover in-depth health assessments, hormone balance and nutritional status analysis, genetic factor assessment, consultations to design personalized health care plans, as well as rehabilitation and wellness services. AIA's high-net-worth customers can access the services through the AIA Prestige Club program, and if they require more complex diagnosis or treatment, they can also seamlessly access the medical capabilities and specialist physician network of Bumrungrad Hospital. Assistant Professor Dr. Polkrit Teekakeerikul, Chief Executive Officer of VitalLife Wellness Center and Esperance, and Chief Science Officer of Bumrungrad International Hospital and VitalLife Wellness Center, said the partnership expands the scope of wellness from specialized services to a life ecosystem that links health care with protection and long-term planning. More than 100,000 customers in the AIA Prestige Club program will be able to begin accessing this new health care service from January 2027 onward.

Asia Plus Securities stated that the Government Pharmaceutical Organization, together with Chulalongkorn University and Seqker Biosciences, is developing a personalised cancer vaccine that uses patients' genetic data to stimulate the immune system to attack cancer cells specifically. The vaccine is currently in phase 3-4 clinical research and has begun use in two foreign patients, with plans to extend into Medical Visa services and expand to state hospitals. The goal is to reduce treatment costs from 4-7 million baht to around 1 million baht. The research team views the private hospital sector positively over the medium to long term, because personalised cancer vaccines tend to complement Precision Medicine and Immunotherapy rather than replace existing treatments, creating opportunities to increase revenue per patient throughout the cancer treatment process, from genetic testing and laboratories to treatment and follow-up. It assesses that BH and BDMS are the main beneficiaries, maintains an overweight stance on the hospital sector relative to the market, and keeps buy recommendations on BH and BDMS with 2027 fair values of 225.00 baht and 25.00 baht respectively.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

Pi Securities has issued an analysis recommending a buy on Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, setting a 2027 fair value of 220 baht per share against the current price of 195.50 baht, an upside of 12.5%. The valuation uses a discounted cash flow method based on a WACC of 8.5% and terminal growth of 2.0%, equivalent to 21.7 times PE'27E, while the stock trades at 18.8 times, close to the hospital sector average of 18.4 times. Pi Securities expects BH's profit to grow 3.6% and 3.2% year on year in 2026 and 2027 respectively, driven mainly by a recovery in foreign patients, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar. In 2027, additional support will come from the opening of Bumrungrad International Phuket, BH's second branch, with 212 beds and an investment of about 4.3 billion baht, fully funded by cash. The first phase will open for service within the third quarter of 2027, starting with 50 inpatient beds and targeting luxury customers. Management expects the branch to turn profitable within one to one and a half years of opening. Meanwhile, the main branch has an extension project in Soi Sukhumvit 1 that will be a new six-storey cancer treatment centre, expanding cancer examination rooms from 10 to 23, chemotherapy rooms from 18 to 30, and adding 59 inpatient beds in the cancer centre, with completion expected by the end of 2027. On results, BH reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.889 billion baht, up 2% year on year and 6% above market expectations. Hospital operating revenue was 6.231 billion baht, up 4% year on year, with revenue from foreign patients, which accounts for 66% of revenue, up 7% year on year as Myanmar patients rose 28% year on year, Middle East patients rose 7% year on year, and American patients rose 19% year on year. Revenue from Thai patients, which accounts for 34%, fell 2% year on year. Pi Securities expects BH revenue of 26.0 billion baht in 2026 and 27.0 billion baht in 2027, up 3% and 4% respectively, with gross margins of 51.9% and 51.4%, the 2027 figure down 50 basis points because of the early-stage losses at the Phuket branch. Net profit is forecast at 7.803 billion baht in 2026 and 8.052 billion baht in 2027, up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively. Pi Securities views BH's ability to raise treatment prices by about 5% a year, above Thailand's average inflation of 1.1% a year over the past 10 years, as a factor supporting long-term value. Key risks include more intense competition in the premium healthcare market, reliance on foreign patients, and medical personnel risk.

Asset World Corp Public Company Limited (AWC) has announced a partnership with VitalLife Scientific Wellness Center, under Bumrungrad Hospital, to open "AYA Wellness Club" at Empire, Thailand's first comprehensive health and lifestyle destination in the heart of Bangkok. The club will operate 24 hours a day, offering preventive health programs, longevity, spa, dining, hydrotherapy, heat therapy, and fitness, with VitalLife serving as advisor on preventive healthcare and Longevity Medicine. Located in Empire, which spans over 48,000 square meters and is certified LEED Gold, WELL Core Platinum, and others, the first phase is set to open in 2026, with full operations in 2027.

Bumrungrad Hospital, or BH, announced the expansion of its business into preventive medicine, while continuing to expand into Asian markets to complement the Middle East, and increasing capacity to accommodate patients in Sukhumvit. The company is positioning its Phuket project as a growth engine, with an investment of over 4.3 billion baht to develop Bumrungrad International Hospital Phuket on approximately 16.5 rai of land near Phuket International Airport. The hospital is scheduled to begin services in the third quarter of 2026 with an initial capacity of 120 beds, expandable to 212 beds in the future, to cater to medical and wellness tourism. A senior source from BH stated that the hospital is shifting its model from sick care to health and wellness by creating an ecosystem that reaches consumers in daily life, such as collaborating with hotels and sports communities, as well as offering health and nutrition classes with partners. For the domestic market, BH aims to expand its base to the healthy and wealthy elderly and health-conscious younger generations. In international markets, the company continues to prioritize Asia, especially China, Laos, and Vietnam, to diversify its patient portfolio and achieve long-term balance. Meanwhile, BH has increased its patient capacity by expanding its facility on Sukhumvit Soi 1, which currently has 580 inpatient beds and can accommodate more than 5,500 outpatients per day.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that Riyadh Air will launch direct flights between Riyadh and Bangkok starting September 2, 2026, and plans to increase frequency to 7 flights per week by October 2026. This will enhance convenience for patients from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East to access Thai medical services, especially for complex diseases such as heart disease, cancer, and orthopedic conditions, which are self-pay groups with high revenue per case. Currently, Saudi tourists traveling to Thailand exceed 200,000 per year, or about 27-28% of all Middle Eastern tourists. The research department believes that BH will benefit the most, given its foreign patient revenue accounts for as much as 67% of hospital revenue, and revenue from Middle Eastern patients is about 22% of total revenue. Although revenue from Saudi patients accounts for only 1.0% of total revenue, compared to BCH at 0.6% and BDMS at 0.1%, it is expected that this market will grow faster than the average for foreign patients over the next 3-5 years, driven by a population base of over 35 million and strong purchasing power. Meanwhile, BDMS and BCH are likely to benefit secondarily, especially BDMS, which can expand into Wellness, Preventive Medicine, and Longevity Programs that are gaining popularity among Saudi clients. The research department has upgraded its investment stance on the hospital group to "overweight" from expectations of the strongest third-quarter 2026 earnings of the year, and has selected BH as a top pick with a "buy" recommendation and a 2027 fair value of 225.00 baht.

Bumrungrad International Hospital (BH) has announced the enhancement of its dry eye care services through a dedicated dry eye clinic under its ophthalmology center, utilizing IDRA technology to thoroughly analyze the tear film system and devise personalized treatment plans. Dr. Artirat Charukitpipat, Chief Executive Officer, stated that dry eye disease is becoming more prevalent, particularly due to increased screen usage habits. The hospital emphasizes in-depth diagnosis and multidisciplinary treatment. The hospital has been ranked by Newsweek as number one in Asia for refractive surgery and number three for cataract surgery, maintaining the top position in Thailand for both categories for the second consecutive year. Professor Dr. Ngamjit Kasetsuwan, Head of the Dry Eye Clinic, noted that dry eye is not solely caused by insufficient tear production but also includes meibomian gland dysfunction (MGD). IDRA technology helps accurately identify the underlying causes. Treatments range from behavioral modifications and warm compresses to light-based therapies (LLLT and IPL), and for severe cases, PRP or autologous serum eye drops may be used.

Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) revealed that the healthcare sector has entered a recovery cycle, with group profit for 2026 expected at 26,548 million baht, down 2% from the previous year, before recovering to 28,142 million baht, up 6% in 2027. Revenue for Q3 2026 is expected at 44,542 million baht, up 11.8% from the previous quarter and 7.0% from the same period last year, driven by the high season of influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks and the recovery of foreign patients. BDMS accounts for 69% of total revenue, with expected revenue growth of 14.3% from the previous quarter and 9.0% from the same period last year. Excluding BDMS, revenue would grow 6.6% from the previous quarter and 2.9% from the same period last year. BH and PR9 have the highest revenue share from Middle Eastern patients at 18% and 9%, respectively, reflecting BH's Middle Eastern patient revenue still growing 13.5% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, many stocks are trading at PER below their long-term average by about -1 to -1.5 standard deviations. PR9 trades at a PER of 17.7 times, below its 4-year average of 23.6 times, and has upside from social security cap adjustments.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Thai stock market in September still faces pressure from geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows, but there are still opportunities for selective stock picking, especially stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and rising commodity prices. The firm highlights top picks BBL, PTT, and BCH. Brent crude oil prices surged to $90.49 per barrel, while WTI stood at $86.27 per barrel. This raises the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike at its September meeting to 65.4%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the highest in a year. Foreign investors were net sellers in the Thai stock market in August, with net selling of 24.565 billion baht, and accumulated net short positions in the futures market of over 51,000 contracts. This pushed the baht to weaken to 33.16 baht per U.S. dollar, opening opportunities for three stock groups: export groups led by HANA, SVI, DELTA, and KCE; tourism groups led by AOT, AAV, BA, MINT, CENTEL, and ERW; and hospital groups led by BH, BDMS, PR9, and BCH. The Thai stock market structure has a 26% share of commodity stocks, helping to keep the index less volatile than the region. Meanwhile, Bitcoin risks a consolidation in September, with a recommendation to take short-term profits in DR: COIN01 and DR: HOOD80, and to watch for speculative opportunities in Tesla stock via DR: TSLA80 ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

CGS International (Thailand) or CGSI maintains a "Buy" recommendation on Bumrungrad Hospital (BH) with a target price of 212 baht, after raising its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 4% and for 2028 by 2%. It expects net profit for Q3/2026 to be 2,083 million baht, up 2% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, bringing 9-month 2026 profit to 5,763 million baht, or 77% of the full-year estimate. The research house sees revenue from international patients still growing 7.1% in Q2/2026, led by patients from Myanmar, the Middle East, and the US. Although the number of international patients declined 6%, revenue from complex treatments is expected to rise 14% for international patients and 5% for Thai patients. Meanwhile, GPM in Q3/2026 is expected to increase to 52.5% from 52.0% in the previous quarter, and the company can control SG&A expenses to 15.8% of revenue. CGSI also raised its dividend payout assumption to 100% for 2026-2028, implying a dividend yield of about 5%. It expects BH to have EBITDA of around 10-11 billion baht per year, sufficient to support annual dividend payments of about 7.7-8.1 billion baht. Risks to monitor include potential escalation of Middle East tensions and increased competition in the international patient market. Positive factors include pent-up demand from Middle Eastern patients that may be stronger than expected and the reopening of the Thai-Cambodian border checkpoint.

Third-quarter net profit of Thai listed companies is expected to expand from a year earlier but slow from the previous quarter, with the main support coming from higher energy prices, petrochemical spreads, mobile and internet service revenue, electronics demand, as well as new power generation capacity and profit from GULF's overseas power plant business. Meanwhile, higher jet fuel costs are pressuring the airline group, and narrowing interest margins are pressuring the banking group. Groups whose core profit is expected to grow from a year earlier are led by energy, petrochemicals and construction materials, supported by average Brent crude prices in July to August rising 28% from a year earlier and Singapore GRM refining margins rising 434% from a year earlier. The electronics group is supported by strong AI and data center demand, with DELTA Taiwan's power electronics sales in July growing 59% from a year earlier and 17% from the previous quarter. KCE expects PCB revenue may rise 17 to 19% from the previous quarter thanks to product price increases effective from July 1, which should lift average selling prices by about 9 to 10%. HANA is seeing IC capacity utilization recover, and AI-related products are expected to begin commercial production from the third quarter. The communications group is supported by mobile and internet service revenue. The hospital group expects revenue to return to growth both from a year earlier and from the previous month in July, supported by Thai and Middle Eastern patients, with flights from the Persian Gulf estimated to have recovered to pre-war levels since early July. The retail group saw same-store sales rise 1% from a year earlier in July, led by IT product retailers, with COM7 expecting total sales to grow 15% from a year earlier and ADVICE growing 17% from a year earlier. CPALL expects same-store sales to expand 0.5% from a year earlier on average in July to August, while Makro was flat and Lotus contracted 5% from a year earlier. The tourism group saw revenue per available room in July at AWC rise 26% from a year earlier, CENTEL rise 8% from a year earlier, ERW rise about 5% from a year earlier, and MINT rise 4% from a year earlier. Groups whose core profit is expected to decline from a year earlier are led by transport, pressured by higher jet fuel costs, banking, pressured by persistently narrowing interest margins, and meat, pressured by lower meat prices, with average pork prices in July falling 14% from a year earlier and chicken prices falling 1% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the pet food export group expects sales to still grow 10% from a year earlier and 7% from the previous quarter in July. Analysts recommend being selective in stocks whose third-quarter earnings trends are still expected to grow strongly, have not seen sharp earnings downgrades over the past three months, and have clear positive factors supporting recovery. These include KCE in electronics, CBG in beverages, which expects domestic energy drink sales to grow 10% from a year earlier and Myanmar sales to grow 70% from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2026, ITC in pet food exports, BH and BDMS in hospitals, AOT and CENTEL in tourism and airports, and GPSC in power plants, which recognizes full-quarter profit from GHECO-One and Glow IPP power plants.

Analysts at CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, estimate that normalised profit for six hospital stocks in the second quarter of 2026 fell 2% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter, which should mark the low point for this year. They expect the hospital group to recover in the second half, though the pace of recovery will vary by company. CGSI sees BH and PR9 outperforming peers because they have a higher proportion of foreign patients, particularly from the Middle East and Myanmar, as well as pent-up demand that may return as Middle East tensions ease. BDMS should also benefit from this situation, but BDMS's mid-tier hospitals, along with CHG and RAM, may still face pressure from weak domestic demand and intensifying competition. However, BCH, CHG and RAM should benefit from a low base in the third quarter of 2026, which may help net profit avoid a year-on-year decline. CGSI continues to name BH and PR9 as top picks in the sector. The healthcare index is up 5% year to date, significantly underperforming the SET Index's 29% gain, and CGSI believes current hospital share prices already reflect concerns about weaker earnings. It therefore maintains an Overweight rating, seeing key upside drivers as an easing of Middle East tensions and a faster-than-expected recovery in medical tourism. Downside risks include higher SG&A expenses and a continued slowdown in the Thai economy.

Shares of Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, rose 3% after brokers forecast third-quarter 2026 profit growth and higher full-year 2026 earnings from the previous year, while recommending a buy with a target price of 232 baht. The share price this morning stood at 206.00 baht, up 6.00 baht or 3.00%, with trading value of 545.30 million baht. ASL Securities expects third-quarter 2026 revenue of 6.708 billion baht, up 3% from the same period last year. Hospital operating costs are seen at 47.5%, up from 47.0% a year earlier, due to rising physician fees and product costs, with net profit forecast at 2.063 billion baht, growing 1.4% year on year. For full-year 2026, revenue is projected at 25.879 billion baht, up 2.6%, and net profit at 7.654 billion baht, up 1.3%. The opening of Bumrungrad International Hospital Phuket is scheduled for a first-phase soft launch in the third quarter of 2027. The trend is expected to pressure short-term costs mainly from depreciation, but the gradual service rollout and centralized management should help control medical supply and administrative costs, which are variable costs, and support the creation of consistent standards.

Several brokers issued research notes on Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, after attending an analyst meeting, forecasting that third-quarter 2026 performance will grow on recovering international patients and expansion into the new market of Iraq. Asia Plus Securities raised its 2026 net profit estimate to 7.81 billion baht from 7.714 billion baht and lifted its 2027 fair value to 225 baht per share, maintaining a buy rating. Krungsri Securities recommends buying with a target price of 225 baht, despite a neutral view on the revenue direction. KGI Securities raised its 2026 profit forecast by 6.6 percent to 7.87 billion baht and increased its 2027 target price to 228 baht from 218 baht. UOB Kay Hian maintained a buy rating with a target price of 236 baht and named BH a top pick in the hospital sector.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Bualuang Securities assesses that hospital stocks have already passed their low point of the year in the second quarter and will recover in the third quarter, driven by seasonal factors and pent-up demand from the Middle East. Combined core profit of the four hospital stocks under coverage was 5.7 billion baht, down 4% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, on combined revenue of 37 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The quarterly decline came from softer Thai patient volumes due to seasonality and economic conditions, while the fly-in business continued to grow. Average gross margin was 36.5%, down 110 basis points year-on-year and 90 basis points quarter-on-quarter, due to higher depreciation from capacity expansion. BH and PR9 still posted profit growth from fly-in demand, while BDMS was most affected by fewer Cambodian patients. BCH beat estimates as social security revenue helped offset weaker general patient volumes. For the third quarter, the picture improves as flights between the Middle East and Bangkok return to pre-conflict levels, combined with the high season for both Thai and fly-in patients. July data already show revenue increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month. On financial positions, BH stands out most, with second-quarter ROE rising to 27.6% from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, along with the highest net cash position in the group. BDMS is the only company with net debt, but its debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.1 times. Bualuang maintains an overweight stance on the hospital sector relative to the market, with BH as the top pick on the recovery of Middle Eastern patients and a strong financial position across the board. For BDMS, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 23 baht for end-2027, viewing the second quarter as likely the low point. July revenue trends have started to return to year-on-year growth for both Thai and foreign customers, leading to expectations that third-quarter core profit will increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Third-quarter support comes from the disease outbreak season, no high base from Cambodian customers as in the previous year, and Myanmar revenue still growing strongly at 42% year-on-year in the second quarter, continuing from 43% year-on-year in the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year. Third-quarter gross margin is expected to rise to 35-37% from a higher proportion of more complex cases. Net debt-to-equity is only 0.1 times, and second-quarter receivable turnover rose to 43 times, up 7% year-on-year. Inventory turnover was 16 times, above the group average of 12 times. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, below the long-term average by 1.5 standard deviations. First-half profit accounted for 45% of the full-year estimate, close to the normal proportion, so full-year profit is still seen as in line with estimates. For BH, Bualuang keeps a buy rating with a target price of 220 baht and still selects it as the standout hospital stock. The third quarter has two main supports at the same time: the recovery of Middle Eastern patients travelling for treatment and the high season for Thai patients. Higher treatment intensity per case supports both revenue and gross margin, even though foreign patient numbers have not fully recovered. Third-quarter core profit is expected to grow faster year-on-year than in the second quarter and to increase quarter-on-quarter on seasonality. Preliminary July data indicate that Thai patients have started to increase from rainy-season illnesses, while flight routes from the Middle East have returned to pre-conflict levels, although patient numbers still lag. The impact of Cambodian patients suspending services after the border incident on 24 July 2025 will not affect third-quarter figures. On financial position, second-quarter ROE was 27.6%, up from 21.9% in the first quarter and 25.9% in the second quarter last year, clearly higher than other stocks in the group. The company has a net cash position and receivable turnover rose to 84 times from 59 times in the second quarter last year. The stock trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 times, while the target price of 220 baht is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, or one standard deviation below the 10-year average of 30 times. Dividends are an additional upside, with the first-half interim dividend of 4 baht per share higher than expected. If a special dividend is paid at the same proportion as in 2025, dividend yield would rise to 6.0%, compared with a base case of 2.6%. However, the main point of the investment idea still places more weight on a return to profit growth than on dividends as a supplement.

Asia Plus Securities expects hospital group profit to recover in the third quarter of 2026, growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, after second-quarter revenue fell 2.9% from the previous quarter but still rose 1.0% from a year earlier, supported by Middle Eastern patients returning after Ramadan and the easing of the Iran situation. Meanwhile, the group's normalized profit fell 5.0% from a year earlier and 12.0% from the previous quarter, led by Bangkok Dusit Medical Services falling 9% and Bangkok Chain Hospital falling 6%, while Bumrungrad Hospital and Praram 9 Hospital posted profit growth of 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. The research team maintained a market-weight rating on the hospital group, selected Bumrungrad Hospital and Praram 9 Hospital as top picks, with fair values of 220.00 baht and 22.00 baht respectively, while Bangkok Dusit Medical Services is a tactical top pick with a maintained buy recommendation and a fair value of 23.00 baht.

Asia Plus Securities' research department said second-quarter 2026 profits of Thai listed companies were the highest on record, beating expectations by about 13%, but still lagging US tech stocks, where NASDAQ beat expectations by 53%, causing some funds to rotate into tech stocks and keeping Thai stocks under pressure and hard to move. It recommends stocks with supportive factors, namely PTT, GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, and stocks expected to post standout third-quarter profits, namely CPF, BDMS, BH, PR9, and KCE. Data from 594 companies, representing 98% of market capitalisation, show second-quarter 2026 net profit surged to 386 billion baht, growing 10.8% quarter-on-quarter and 12.5% year-on-year, with the energy sector contributing as much as one-third of profits. Commodity-linked stocks such as energy, petrochemicals, food, and agriculture accounted for as much as 44% of total market profit, compared with the normal level of about 30%. First-half profit already accounted for more than 60% of full-year estimates, making third- and fourth-quarter profit targets of only about 19% per quarter, or roughly 228 billion baht, not difficult to achieve. There is also a chance that full-year EPS estimates will be revised upward at year-end, adding upside to the SET Index.

Asia Plus Securities' research team has issued an analysis of hospital stocks BDMS and BH after their second-quarter 2026 earnings announcements, expecting profits at both companies to recover clearly in the second half of the year. BDMS reported normalized profit of 3.176 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, down 21.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and 9.0 percent year-on-year, due to higher drug and medical supply costs as well as depreciation from the opening of the new Bangkok Hospital Hua Hin building and the bed expansion at Bangkok Hospital Surat. The research team maintained its 2026 normalized profit forecast at 15.918 billion baht, down 1.7 percent year-on-year, and kept a buy recommendation with a target price of 23.00 baht. BH reported net profit of 1.89 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 1.7 percent year-on-year and 5.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, supported by revenue from international patients rising 7.1 percent year-on-year, and announced an interim dividend of 4.00 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 2 percent, with the stock going ex-dividend on August 28. The research team maintained its 2026 net profit forecast at 7.714 billion baht, growth of 2.7 percent year-on-year, and upgraded its recommendation to buy from speculative, with a 2027 target price of 220 baht.

BH shares rose 3.95% to 197.50 baht after reporting second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1.89 billion baht, up 1.7% from a year earlier and 5.5% from the previous quarter, in line with research expectations. The result was supported by revenue from international patients, which increased 7.1% year-on-year, led by Myanmar, the Middle East, and the United States, while Thai patient revenue declined 2.2%. The company announced an interim dividend of 4.00 baht per share, with the ex-dividend date set for August 28. Asia Plus Securities upgraded its recommendation to buy from speculative, with a 2027 target price of 220.00 baht per share, citing expectations for stronger second-half performance driven by a recovery in international patients and the high season for Thai patients.

Kingsford Securities expects the SET index to trade sideways today within a support level of 1,600 points and resistance at 1,620 to 1,630 points, awaiting the outcome of negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz and supported by strong earnings from large listed companies. The brokerage recommends gradually accumulating Value and Defensive Play stocks, naming 10 securities: KBANK, KTB, GULF, GPSC, ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, BH, BDMS, and BEM. For ADVICE, it recommends speculative buying with an IAA Consensus target price of 7.80 baht, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to rise both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by improving gross margins as IT product prices gradually increase, while robust sales of smartphones and other goods help offset the shortage of iPhones. The market forecasts 2026–2027 profit at 401 million baht, up 50% from the previous year, and 413 million baht, up 3% from the previous year. For AP, it recommends buying with an IAA Consensus target price of 9.74 baht, benefiting from the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for residential properties priced up to 7 million baht, extended until 30 June 2027. It expects second-quarter 2026 pre-sales to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by low-rise projects and a low base last year due to the earthquake. The market forecasts 2026 net profit at 4.62 billion baht, up 7% from the previous year, and 2027 net profit at 4.92 billion baht, up 6% from the previous year, with a forward PE of 5.6 times, PBV of 0.5 times, and dividend yield of 6.5%.

Techno Medical Public Company Limited, or TM, expects to receive AACI accreditation by September 2026, which will help expand its foreign customer base and attract referral cases from leading hospitals such as Bumrungrad Hospital, Samitivej Hospital, and the Bangkok Hospital group. Currently, the Wellness business has an occupancy rate of around 70 percent from a total of 65 beds, and there are plans to develop a Residence project for the elderly on land in the Saphan Sung area near the Orange Line electric train station, with a proposal expected to be submitted to the company's board by the end of this year. In addition, TM is adjusting its strategy to increase the proportion of OEM production from China to reduce costs and boost margins.

Krungsri Securities views Thai equities as having positive signals from Thailand becoming an AI investment hub and the Federal Reserve likely holding interest rates steady, setting an index target of 1,600 to 1,680 points and selecting eight standout stocks in banking, power plants, tourism, and other sectors. Mr. Korrapat Vorachet, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Research at Krungsri Securities, said Thailand is being seen as a new strategic location for AI infrastructure investment in the region, with advantages from sufficient reserve power generation capacity, competitive land costs, and utilities ready to support data centers. Meanwhile, the Fed may choose to patiently hold interest rates rather than hike aggressively amid fragile signals in the US labor market, which would be positive for Asian stock markets and value-market segments. The research team maintains its index target at 1,600 to 1,680 points, expecting the market to gradually recover and have a chance to revise earnings estimates upward after the second-quarter results pass. Recommended standout stocks include KBANK and KTB in the banking group, where prices are still below book value; GULF and GPSC in the power plant group to support electricity demand from data centers; PTT and SCC, which benefit from a new wave of investment; and AOT and BH in the tourism and healthcare group, helped by lower oil cost pressures and the return of Chinese tourists.

Bumrungrad Hospital has disclosed that each year tens of thousands of patients die from heart failure in Thailand, yet the public health system can carry out only around 30 heart transplants annually. The main bottleneck is not a shortage of donors, but rather that patient screening and referral processes remain inadequate. Dr. Patchara Ongcharit, a specialist in cardiothoracic surgery, noted that currently only four to five teaching hospitals provide heart transplant services, and Bumrungrad Hospital is the sole private hospital with the full capability, achieving a 30-day post-operative survival rate of 100 percent across seven cases to date. Meanwhile, Police Lieutenant Colonel Dr. Sakonwatchara Montriwet, a specialist in cardiology, spoke about the ECMELLA innovation, which combines ECMO, an artificial heart-lung support machine, with the Impella miniature heart pump to sustain patients in critical shock while they await a donor heart, effectively buying vital time to prevent other organ failure.

Asia Plus Securities says the Ministry of Public Health aims to push Thailand to become the regional hub for Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products, or ATMP Hub, within four years by upgrading ATMP industry standards covering cell production, storage, and transport, while requiring operators to meet GMP standards and obtain Cell Bank certification. The research team views this as directly positive for MEDEZE as the leader in Thailand's cell banking business, with over 50% market share and the country's first legally registered cell bank, reflecting readiness to expand into the ATMP business with leading medical institutions. If the ATMP Sandbox project makes concrete progress, it will be a key driver for the development of the anti-aging and regenerative medicine business, which has high growth potential. Currently, the company is awaiting registration of products for knee osteoarthritis and facial skin degeneration, and expects to start recognizing commercial revenue from 2027 onwards. Meanwhile, the growth of the ATMP industry provides structural support for the longevity business in the long term. BDMS stands out for expanding preventive health and anti-aging medicine services through WellEra and BDMS Wellness Clinic, covering anti-aging and regenerative medicine. Although the current revenue share is not high, it is a high-margin business that attracts high-purchasing-power customers. BH has a strength in VitalLife, which has been in the longevity business for over 20 years and is recognized by the premium medical tourism segment, thus also likely to benefit from the megatrend of anti-aging and health restoration medicine in the long term. The research team picks MEDEZE as the top stock for this theme due to the clearest growth potential in the ATMP business within the group, with a preliminary fair value of 8.00 baht based on historical P/E plus two standard deviations at 40.29 times, implying 22% upside, and recommends buying. BDMS and BH have opportunities to benefit from the long-term growth of the longevity and regenerative medicine business, with DCF-based fair values of 23.00 baht and 200.00 baht, respectively.