Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Refinery stocks are getting a boost from the Singapore reference refining margin, which rose to around 20.5 dollars per barrel in late September 2026 and is expected to hold at high levels. Suwat Sinsadok, managing director of Global Securities, said the fourth-quarter 2026 refining margin will be close to the 20.5 dollars per barrel seen in the third quarter and could reach as high as 30 dollars per barrel given tight global oil supply. He set a target price of 88 baht per share for Thai Oil, or TOP, the most outstanding stock in the group. Sorachai Pitayapruek, a fundamental analyst at Krungsri Securities, said the catalyst came from an attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia that forced a temporary shutdown, pushing tanker freight rates from more than 10 dollars per barrel to more than 20 dollars per barrel. He expects the fourth-quarter 2026 refining margin to stay in double digits, supported by winter oil storage demand. Third-quarter 2026 earnings for the refinery group are expected to recover clearly, especially TOP, which posted a stock loss of about 7 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026 and may instead book a stock gain. Krungsri Securities maintained a positive investment weighting on refinery stocks, naming TOP the most outstanding with a target price of 83 baht, supported by its Clean Fuel Project.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index will trade in a range of 1550-1620 points this week. Domestically, the key factor to watch remains flooding, after the government began gradually releasing water from the Chao Phraya Dam; if there is no additional heavy rain, the impact may not be significant. Externally, attention should be on the Middle East situation, which could escalate again, serving as a catalyst for crude oil prices and inflation. Meanwhile, US bond yields have eased slightly on hopes that the US will not rush to raise interest rates in October, though yields remain elevated. For investment strategy this week, the recommendation is to accumulate stocks on dips that are expected to show strong earnings trends and have supporting stories. The top picks for the week are TOP and BCH. TOP is given a base price of 75.20 baht, supported by refining margins benefiting from the Middle East situation and China and the US announcing a ban on diesel exports in October. Its third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook remains good on high refining margins and expected stock gains; the buy recommendation is maintained. BCH is given a base price of 12.50 baht, based on a stronger third-quarter 2026 outlook as Thai patient volumes recover, SSO revenue improves, and foreign patients, especially from the Middle East and CLMV, grow. The target price is based on DCF at a WACC of 8.2%, offering a dividend yield of around 4-5% in 2026-27; the buy recommendation is also maintained.

KGI Securities said there is a growing risk that the United States will ban diesel exports, after US retail diesel prices surged past US$6.50 per gallon on supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war. US officials indicated the government is considering measures to restrict diesel exports, though the format remains uncertain, ranging from a full export ban and partial caps to voluntary export reductions. Data from BCA Research dated September 24 showed US diesel exports hit a record 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in February 2026, and estimated that a full US export ban, combined with supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, would affect about 47% of global diesel exports. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 16% of global diesel exports, with most shipments going to Europe and South America. The research team views this possibility as a positive factor for sentiment on Thai refinery stocks, namely SPRC, TOP, BCP, IRPC and PTTGC.

Shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, rose 7.84% to 72.25 baht, up 5.25 baht, on heavy trading volume of 1.49281 billion baht. Krungsri Securities recommends Buy with a 2027 target price of 83 baht, viewing the company as a beneficiary of tight global refined oil supply, especially diesel, which supports a recovery in refining margins, or GRM. Since TOP's production mix is about 50% diesel, it benefits directly. The research team estimates that TOP's profit could see upside of about 47-92% from its previous forecast after the escalation of war conditions raised the likelihood that energy price and refining margin assumptions will be revised higher, with further upside possible if supply factors and refining margins remain strong. The stock valuation also remains attractive, with PBV at about 0.6-0.7 times, while the expected dividend yield is more than 3.5% per year.

Refinery stocks led by TOP and SPRC rose sharply today after China restricted exports of oil products, prompting the market to expect that supplies of refined fuels in Asia may tighten, particularly diesel and jet fuel. At 10:28 a.m., TOP stood at 71.50 baht, up 4.50 baht, or 6.72%, with trading value of 1.09 billion baht, while SPRC stood at 14.70 baht, up 0.70 baht, or 5.00%, with trading value of 287.21 million baht. Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 0.28%, to 102.60 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 27 cents, or 0.29%, to 93.14 dollars per barrel, after China did not allow major refineries to export diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau in October. Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier and additional troops of up to about 10,000 personnel to the Middle East, and has called on Germany and France to release diesel from emergency reserves, proposing that the European Union release a total of about 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months.

Krungsri Securities maintains its Base-Best target for the Thai stock market index this year at 1,680-1,750 points, based on EPS of 103 baht, up from 98 baht, at a P/E of 17.0 times. The near-term momentum comes from the earnings quality of two main groups: those benefiting from energy and inflation, and those gaining momentum from the upstream AI CAPEX cycle, which is expected to help listed companies' profits continue expanding for at least two more quarters, namely the third and fourth quarters of this year. The research team assigns an Overweight investment weighting to three main groups: the group benefiting from the CAPEX cycle, covering the power sector with a recommendation for GULF, banking with a recommendation for KBANK, electronic components with a recommendation for DELTA, and construction contracting with a recommendation for SCC; the NTM Re-ratings group with potential to recover over the next 12 months or re-enter the MSCI index, such as THAI, PTTGC and TOP; and the agriculture and food group, covering agricultural substitutes, which benefits from Super El Niño, such as IVL. At the same time, it has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment rising 8.6% and exports rising 14.0%. Meanwhile, the pipeline of large-scale investment covers FDI/BOI, the PDP2026 worth 2.14 to 2.48 trillion baht, and mega projects worth 1.3 trillion baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects the index to move within a support range of 1,560 to 1,550 points and a resistance range of 1,680 to 1,750 points, with top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 being TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Research from Asia Plus Securities indicates that foreign investors net sold Thai stocks for six consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 20 billion baht, pressured by US bond yields rising faster than Thai yields, flooding issues and rising political temperature, as well as a baht that continues to weaken, which increases the chance of foreign exchange losses for foreign investors. However, foreign investors are still gradually accumulating certain companies, focusing on banks, energy, and some petrochemical stocks with strong stories and laggard prices. SCB led with net buying of 2.974 billion baht, followed by PTT at 1.361 billion baht, TOP at 882 million baht, IRPC at 627 million baht, and BBL at 517 million baht. Meanwhile, the research team also recommends three standout stocks: TRUE, on the trend of third-quarter 2026 profit growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with an expected dividend yield of about 1.2%; GULF, benefiting from positive sentiment from falling oil prices and the investment theme tied to the Power Development Plan and data centers; and PLANB, which is likely to raise its 2027 profit forecast on its share of investment in ICARE and its entry into the high season for the out-of-home advertising business in the second half of the year.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited expects the SET Index to move sideways today, with support at 1,595 and 1,590 points and resistance at 1,608 and 1,612 points, amid pressure from the US-Iran war that is keeping crude oil prices and US government bond yields elevated. However, the market is supported by political clarity after the Constitutional Court ruled that the barcode ballot papers do not violate the constitution, which helps underpin government stability and facilitates the continuation of public investment policy. The tourism sector is beginning to recover, with the number of foreign tourists between 20 and 27 September 2026 at 482,000, up 4.1% week-on-week, while Chinese tourists rose as much as 42%. Meanwhile, concerns over AI safety have eased after NVIDIA launched a software platform to control Agentic AI. For today's top picks, Krungsri selected GULF, CK and TOP as its Alpha Espresso Picks, with 2027 target prices of 77 baht, 25.35 baht and 83 baht respectively.

Pie Securities stated that pressure on the Thai stock market from flooding is believed to be over, but global conditions remain under pressure from the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have repeatedly hit new record highs. US government bond yields rose across all maturities, driven by concerns over higher inflation in line with energy prices and investors demanding greater returns in light of US debt risks. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude closed up 0.9% amid concerns over tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. The research team estimates the SET index range at 1585 to 1610 points, advises increased caution, and recommends focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, namely the banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB; the export group ITC and TU; the defensive group ADVANC; and the energy group PTT, PTTEP, TOP, and PTTGC. This morning the baht continues to weaken, which may pressure foreign capital flows.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, released an analysis of the refinery sector, maintaining a positive view and raising its normal profit estimates for the group in 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 29% respectively, along with target price increases of 6-19%. The main supporting factor comes from the prolonged and widening war situation in the Middle East, which has cut Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity to 6.3 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, ramping up production and refilling global oil inventories is expected to take at least six months, creating a shortage of refined products, especially middle distillates, whose price spread is estimated at 44-65 US dollars per barrel, two to three times above normal levels, and is expected to persist through the first half of 2027. For its top pick in the sector, KSS chose Thai Oil, or TOP, with a 2027 target price of 83.00 baht, based on expected normal profit growth averaging 14% per year from 2026 to 2028, the strongest in the group. It also maintained a buy rating on Star Petroleum Refining, or SPRC, raising its 2027 target price to 15.30 baht from 13.50 baht, and maintained a buy rating on Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, raising its 2027 target price to 68.00 baht from 62.00 baht.

Krungsri Securities estimates that the flood situation in Bangkok, caused by a strong low-pressure cell in the Bay of Bengal that has strengthened the southwest monsoon, will have a negative short-term impact on the Thai stock market. Krungsri economists estimate the impact at about 0.16% of GDP, assuming the floods affect 25% of Bangkok's GPP for one week, since Bangkok is the main economic area accounting for roughly 34% of GDP in 2024. They estimate that the SET is likely to fall by 0.25-0.5% in response, given the limited impact. The research team notes that the main severity occurred during the weekend holiday, and that mechanisms to reduce the impact now exist, such as working and studying from home, while the industrial sector, including industrial estates, has not yet seen any significant impact. However, the monsoon trough passing through the main EEC area must be monitored. As for dam water levels on 27 September 2026, they stood at 77% nationwide, compared with 88% on 27 September 2011, and water discharge through Nakhon Sawan province remains about 2-3 times lower than in 2011, leading to the assessment that compounding effects from water released from the North are unlikely to occur in 2026, with the risk picture significantly lower than in the severe flood year of 2011. Stocks that benefit in the short term include consumer staples retailers such as CPALL, mass transit, and groups that benefit from home repairs such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, SCC and TASCO. Groups viewed negatively include insurance, hire purchase, banking, tourism, aviation, property, restaurants and industrial estates. Krungsri picks Global Plays Energy Security stocks, namely TOP, PTTGC, IVL and the components maker DELTA, ahead of trading gains in consumer staples retailer CPALL, and recommends accumulating tourism stocks AWC and ERW on dips.

Mr. Wikit Thirawannarat, IAA, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy at Bualuang Securities, unveiled a portfolio-adjustment strategy for the final stretch of the year in the fourth quarter of 2026, recommending investors rotate among sectors in step with the market. Stocks with their main revenue from overseas remain the key driver, because domestic purchasing power alone is not enough to move the market. The groups that outperformed the market in the third quarter of 2026 were those tied to the global economy and commodities, including petrochemicals, refineries, shipping stocks such as RCL and PRM, agricultural and food-export names such as TVO, TU and ITC, and electronic components such as KCE and HANA. Meanwhile, groups tied to domestic consumption, such as telecoms ADVANC and TRUE and retailers CPALL and CPAXT, rose more slowly than the market. Three investment themes lead the way. First, refineries and petrochemicals, where supply is tight and global demand is strong, with TOP trading at a price-to-book ratio of only about 0.7 times and paying consistent dividends. Second, power plants, expected to be the star performer in the fourth quarter, driven by the build-out of data centers and production bases by foreign companies, clarity on direct PPA contracts, and the power development plan. Third, energy and technology infrastructure, which benefits from transmission systems, substations, smart grids, smart meters, rooftop solar and submarine cable projects. As for industrial estates, after a big run-up in the first and second quarters of 2026, they are expected to enter a period of consolidation and rebound within a sideways range. On external factors, the surge in bond yields worldwide is a highlight to watch; if yields start to fall, that would be a key turning point for the stock market. The Bank of Japan may keep raising rates through the middle of next year, ending at around 1.75 to 2.0 percent, South Korea at 3.5 percent, Europe at 3.0 percent in the first quarter of next year, and the US Federal Reserve may hike another one to two times. As for new US tariffs, the assessment is that they will target specific rival countries rather than be imposed across the board, so Thailand is likely to escape them and may even benefit from cheaper imported raw materials such as soybeans and soybean meal, which would lower animal-feed costs and support meat-export groups such as chicken and pork. On investment strategy, short-term traders are advised to rotate through sector rotation, alternating between banks and commodities, while long-term investors are advised to focus on infrastructure and power plants, with standout large-cap stocks capable of winning projects and co-investing in infrastructure being GULF and PTT.

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the decline in Singapore reference refining margins is temporary. Margins fell from more than 20 US dollars per barrel at the start of the US-Iran conflict to around 7 US dollars per barrel, driven by seasonally weaker demand and increased exports of refined oil products from China. However, the refined products market is expected to tighten as winter approaches, supporting a recovery in Singapore refining margins in late the fourth quarter of 2026, with middle distillates as the main driver, given low diesel inventories, seasonally rising energy demand, low European natural gas inventories, and the possibility that European refineries will reduce runs. For the longer-term outlook, Kasikorn Securities expects global excess refining capacity to fall from 5.9 million barrels per day in 2025 to 4.7 million barrels per day by 2028, which would help Singapore refining margins gradually improve to 7–8 US dollars per barrel. On domestic factors, Kasikorn Securities estimates that the measure cutting ex-refinery diesel prices by 4 baht per litre could reduce profits of refinery companies by about 4–10%. Although it views the share price decline as having largely reflected that impact, there remains risk of further intervention if crude oil prices and diesel price spreads rise sharply. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities Company Limited stated that as of September 20, 2026, the Fuel Fund had a negative position of 92,300 million baht, comprising a negative oil account of 52,300 million baht and a negative liquefied petroleum gas account of 40,000 million baht, with average daily obligations of about 700 million baht. There is therefore a chance the fund's position will exceed a negative 100,000 million baht by the end of September, after the previous 20,000 million baht loan facility was fully used. It also stated that the measure cutting ex-refinery diesel prices for B0, B7, and B20 diesel by 4 baht per litre, effective from September 16 to October 31, 2026, is an issue to watch, especially the possibility of extending the measure after that period, which could add pressure on TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC. Amid those risks, Kasikorn Securities still picks Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, as its top stock in the sector, citing attractive valuation and long-term profit growth potential from clean energy projects, with a "Buy" recommendation and a target price of 75.20 baht.

Krungsri Securities said the Thai stock market between 21 and 24 September 2026 moved above the 1,600-point level, supported by positive expectations that the US leader will meet the Chinese leader on 24-25 September, which boosts the prospect of further trade easing. Meanwhile, the electronics group gained positive momentum from AI after President Trump confirmed that the US will continue developing AI despite safety concerns, together with a boost from META's new AI that is helping accelerate demand. The refinery and petrochemical group, such as TOP, SPRC and PTTGC, rose on news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, which if implemented would tighten diesel supply in the market and push refining margins higher. The banking group, such as KBANK and BBL, also rose on positive sentiment, supported by news that Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness to Stable while keeping the credit rating at BBB+. The groups that fell more sharply than others included retail, such as CRC and CPALL, which faced negative sentiment from the Cabinet resolution extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure, and exporters such as CPF, whose share price fell in line with Chinese hog prices, which dropped 1.8% week-on-week to RMB 10.64 per kg, or 53.00 baht per kg, from a cost of RMB 13.50 per kg, because of oversupply. Meanwhile, Thai hog prices were flat week-on-week at 75.50 baht per kg, against a cost of 60.00 baht per kg. Market earnings for 2026F stood at 110.9 baht, up slightly week-on-week, with the groups whose estimates were revised up being petrochemicals and packaging, while the groups revised down were agriculture and property. Last week, capital flowed out of Asia excluding Japan by a total of 1.661 billion dollars, with Thailand seeing an outflow of 95 million dollars, split into net stock sales of 107.5 million dollars and net bond buying of 12 million dollars. The baht was flat at 33.3 baht.

Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of Globlex Securities, told "Than Hoon" that oil prices are likely to remain elevated for at least another six months, with a base-case floor of 70 to 80 dollars per barrel and a chance of swinging up to 80 to 90 dollars per barrel. He noted that commercial and strategic petroleum reserves in many countries around the world have fallen to very low levels. He also pointed out that a key window of roughly one to two months could see the opposing sides return to the negotiating table, under pressure from the U.S. general election and the start of winter. Even if talks conclude, repairing damaged production facilities in Russia and the Middle East will take time, meaning supply will not recover quickly over the next six months. On investment strategy, he still favors the energy and refinery groups, viewing the government's move to skim 4 baht per liter from refining margins as a negative but tolerable factor, because global refining margins, or GRM, remain above 10 dollars per barrel and the diesel crack spread is around 50 dollars per barrel. PTT is the top pick, while TOP is given a fundamental target price of 88 baht, BCP just over 75 baht, and SPRC 15.50 baht. For petrochemicals, he recommends focusing on stocks that also have refineries, seeing IRPC and PTTGC as beneficiaries, followed by IVL.

Shares of Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, and Thai Oil, or TOP, rose against the broader market after Maybank Securities (Thailand) said the United States is considering a 90-day ban on diesel exports, which would keep the global diesel spread tight. BCP gained 0.50 baht, or 0.92%, to 54.75 baht, from a high of 56.75 baht, while TOP added 0.25 baht, or 0.35%, to 71.25 baht, from a high of 73.50 baht. Maybank said the administration of President Donald Trump is preparing a plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days to lower domestic energy prices, and the situation is likely to keep the global diesel market tight. For BCP, Maybank sees its valuation as attractive, with a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of just 2.8 times, the lowest in the refinery group, and gives a strategic target price of 65.00 baht. The US plan is also affecting Republicans ahead of the midterm elections on November 3.

Shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, rose 2.00 baht, or 2.82%, to 73.00 baht on trading value of 602.25 million baht, supported by progress on its clean energy project, CFP, which as of July 2026 stood at 34.87% after TOP brought in a new project supervisor. The first part of the project, crude distillation unit 4, or CDU4, is expected to begin production in the second quarter of 2027, while the full project is expected to start production in the third quarter of 2028. The CFP project is expected to help cut production costs and add about 2 dollars per barrel to refining margins. Krungsri Securities maintained its buy recommendation on TOP with a 2027 target price of 83.00 baht, assessing that post-war profits could rise by about 47% to 92% from pre-war levels, while the stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of about 0.6 to 0.7 times and offers a dividend yield of more than 3.5% a year. Liberator Securities said TOP can still be traded on refining margin and oil price trends, but expects third-quarter 2026 earnings to decline in line with refining margins and the impact of increased negative inventory valuation adjustments at refineries.

The Energy Ministry is accelerating a proposal to the prime minister to unlock diesel exports after domestic stockpiles surged to 70-80% amid sluggish rainy-season demand, forcing refineries to cut production. The market views the move as slightly positive; if approved by early September it would come sooner than the previously expected fourth quarter of 2026 and would support refinery utilisation rates, adding roughly 0.5-1% to 2026 profits. Meanwhile, the MRT Blue Line has resumed full service at all stations from 5:30 a.m. after a short circuit in a 750-volt direct-current cable set damaged the power supply and signalling systems between Bang O and Kamphaeng Phet stations. Bangkok Expressway and Metro, or BEM, mobilised engineers for a full 12 hours of repairs and sent inspection cars along the tracks to test confidence. Separately, Chatchamongkhon Khemapirat, chief executive of Sriracha Construction Public Company Limited, or SRICHA, announced readiness for the second half of 2026 and into 2027, with a backlog from Thai Oil's Clean Fuel Project, or CFP, worth about 3.9 billion baht, and is pressing ahead to find new projects including LNG plants in Canada, Mozambique and Papua New Guinea, and markets in the Middle East such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn unveiled a contingency plan for the Airport Rail Link operating contract due to expire at the end of September, preparing to negotiate a one-to-three-month extension, or if the private operator confirms handover on schedule, to let the State Railway of Thailand run the service itself, pending a conclusion from the SRT board. Siam Asset Public Company Limited, or SA, plans to offer three tranches of bonds with maturities of two years and one month to three years and three months, at fixed coupons of 7.15-7.45% per year, paying interest every three months, with subscriptions open on 25 and 28-29 September, to use the proceeds to repay existing bonds maturing in November 2026; the issue carries a TRIS Rating credit rating of BB.

InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.

Krungsri Securities maintains a BULLISH view on the refinery sector, expecting that over the long term in 2026-2028 the group will stand out on tightening supply trends and limited new capacity coming online, keeping refining margins above the 10-year average. Although spreads will normalize, they can still generate strong cash flow and sustain high dividend payouts. It selects TOP as its top pick on growth prospects and stronger long-term competitiveness than peers after the CFP project starts commercial operation in the third quarter of 2028, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 83 baht. In the case that the Oil Fuel Fund Committee resolves to cut the ex-refinery price of diesel by 4 baht per liter from 16 September to 31 October 2026 to ease the cost of living during the Middle East conflict, the research team views this as slightly negative for the refinery group, implying downside of about 3-4% to group earnings forecasts and trimming 2027 target prices by roughly 0.6-1.2%. If the government extends the 4 baht per liter discount through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would see downside of about 6% for TOP, about 8% for SPRC and about 7% for BCP, with target prices affected by about 1.4% for TOP, about 2.2% for SPRC and about 2.8% for BCP respectively. However, the research team believes that if product spreads begin to narrow after October 2026, the government is likely to reduce the diesel price discount over the remainder of the year, noting that state intervention will gradually ease in line with product spreads as oil prices return to normal levels, allowing the refinery group to keep generating strong cash flow and paying high dividends. If share prices in the sector decline, it sees that as a buying opportunity.

Several securities firms have turned positive on progress at Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, on its CFP clean energy project, as construction proceeds on schedule. The project will raise refining capacity, allow a wider range of crude oil grades to be processed, and shift the product slate toward higher-value products, key factors for lifting refining margins and long-term profitability. Trinity Securities said that after visiting the CFP project, it views the project as a major turning point for TOP's refinery structure, raising refining capacity from 375,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, increasing the share of upgrading unit capacity from 28% to 50%, and lifting the refinery complexity index from 9.8 to 12. The share of high-value products, especially diesel and jet fuel, will rise from 53% to 62%. Trinity recommends Trading Buy on TOP with a target price of 74 baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand said the CFP project will raise refining capacity from 275,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, increase the ability to process cheaper heavy crude to 40-50%, and cut the use of light crude from nearly all of the slate to about 40-50% by the end of July 2026. As of end-July 2026, construction under the EPCM contract is 34.87% complete, with the fourth crude distillation unit, CDU-4, with a capacity of 220,000 barrels per day, targeted to start commercial operations in the second quarter of 2027, before the CFP project fully opens in the third quarter of 2028. The ERU unit, part of the CFP project, will have 250 megawatts of power generation capacity and produce 175 tonnes of steam per hour. TOP and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, are in talks to buy and sell ERU after failing to meet the original conditions, with a conclusion expected by October 30, 2026. Yuanta maintains a Trading recommendation with a target price of 74 baht. Globlex Securities said the project's total investment value is about 7.15 billion US dollars, or about 6.39 billion US dollars excluding ERU, and maintains a Buy on TOP with a target price of 88 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) expects TOP's crude run rate to gradually rise from 307,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 320,000 barrels per day in 2027 and 350,000 barrels per day in 2028, before increasing to 400,000 barrels per day in 2029 after the CFP project fully opens. It expects the project to add about 4-5 US dollars per barrel to market refining margins, and maintains a Buy on TOP with a target price of 70 baht.

PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, has returned to the spotlight as a star stock after foreign media reported that ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi energy giant, is quietly negotiating to acquire stakes in PTT's refining and petrochemical affiliates. Most analysts view the move positively over the long term, citing asset value unlocking and hedging against crude oil feedstock risk. Most brokers assess that Thai Oil, or TOP, has the highest chance of gaining a new partner to strengthen its business, given its highly efficient refinery and low reliance on petrochemicals. InnovestX Securities said PTT clarified that it is currently studying and discussing with several potential partners, but there has been no significant progress and no agreement has been reached with any counterparty. PTT confirmed it will remain the major shareholder and retain control of the business as before, and InnovestX maintained its OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of 50 baht. Meanwhile, Sorachai Phitthayaphruks, a senior analyst at Krungsri Securities, views that a partner, whether ADNOC or another company, would likely invest in TOP because of its potential to expand the refinery under the CFP project starting in 2028. PTTGC is studying a joint venture with Siam Cement, or SCC, while IRPC has no capacity expansion. Krungsri Securities raised TOP's target price from 70 baht to 83 baht with a buy recommendation, and set PTT's target at 44.50 baht, also a buy. Tisco Securities said the ADNOC news is not entirely new and believes the market has likely anticipated it, maintaining buy recommendations for PTT and TOP with fair values of 45.00 baht and 73.50 baht, respectively, and hold recommendations for PTTGC and IRPC with fair values of 43.00 baht and 2.50 baht, respectively. Over the past month, PTT's share price rose from 39.75 baht on August 14, 2026, to 42.00 baht on September 11, 2026, up 2.25 baht or 5.66%, hitting a five-year high of 42.75 baht along the way and closing at 41.75 baht at midday today. In September, PTT is due to pay an interim dividend, speculated at 1 baht per share.

Kasikorn Securities estimates the SET index will trade in a range of 1,590-1,620 points this week and recommends accumulating stocks expected to post standout profits in the second half of 2026, picking BBL and TOP as its top picks for today. The company had previously estimated the index range at 1,580-1,620 points. The Thai stock market last closed at 1,604.52 points, down 0.65% on selling pressure in petrochemical, finance and construction stocks. On external factors, the Fed Watch Tool assigns an 88% probability to a US rate hike on September 16, 2026, according to the latest survey, and the market puts the odds of a 0.25% rate increase at more than 60%. Domestically, risks remain from political issues, particularly the "Senate collusion" case, which could affect sentiment over short-term political stability, while the FTSE rebalancing at the end of the week could add to market volatility. Stocks viewed as attractive include BBL, BGRIM, DELTA and SCGP. For BBL, the company sets a target price of 203.00 baht and expects loan growth of 3.57% in 2026, benefiting from interest rates passing their trough, with valuation still inexpensive at a PBV of about 0.6 times. For TOP, it sets a target price of 75.20 baht and maintains a "buy" rating, citing short-term benefits from a high proportion of oil production and long-term potential gains from the CFP project.

Brent crude rose to test nearly $110 per barrel in early trading today after fighting between Houthi armed groups in Yemen and Saudi-backed forces intensified. Analysts at Trinity Securities said supply concerns and an increasingly tight oil market continue to build, and reiterated their view from early this month that holding energy stocks remains necessary to protect portfolios from geopolitical risk factors that appear likely to drag on indefinitely. Trinity sees the refinery group as attractive, naming three stocks: BCP, SPRC and TOP, on expectations that third-quarter earnings momentum will remain strong.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock index on September 10, 2026, may pull back and consolidate after the investment atmosphere returned to a risk-off stance, driven by the rise in the 10-year US government bond yield and continuously climbing oil prices, which brought the market back to worrying about inflation trends and the direction of US interest rates. It estimates support at 1,605 and 1,600 points, with resistance at 1,625 and 1,630 points. The key pressure comes from Brent crude oil, which rose 3.4% to reach 100 dollars per barrel, the highest since May 22, amid supply concerns after heightened tensions in the Middle East, while demand from China has begun to recover. This is seen as a short-term positive for energy stocks PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC and IRPC, as well as petrochemical stocks PTTGC and IVL, but a negative factor for SPP power plants such as GPSC and BGRIM due to rising fuel cost risks. Meanwhile, the US bond market has resumed creating pressure after the US Treasury's buyback of long-term bonds came in at 6 billion dollars, which, although double the previous amount, was still below the market's expectation of 7 to 8 billion dollars. As a result, 2-year and 10-year US bond yields rose 0.04%, and the market assigns more than 60% weight to the possibility that the Fed may raise rates to curb inflation. This high bond yield environment is seen as a positive factor for insurance stocks such as BLA and TLI. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows still show positive signals: on September 9, foreign investors net bought 3,137 million baht of Thai stocks, with cumulative net buying of 10,038 million baht since the start of September and 61,407 million baht since the start of the year, in contrast to domestic institutional investors who net sold 960 million baht, securities company accounts which net sold 1,260 million baht, and retail investors who net sold 917 million baht. On September 9, the SET closed at 1,617.89 points, down 4 points or 0.25%, with trading value of 81,330.74 million baht. For investment strategy, InnovestX recommends Selective Buy, focusing on stocks with specific positive factors, divided into three main themes: Policy and Domestic Play, Global Macro & Bond Yield Play, and Laggard Play. For the Global Macro & Bond Yield Play group, it gives weight to energy stocks PTTEP, BCP, TOP, shipping stocks PSL, TTA, as well as banking stocks KTB, BBL, KBANK and life insurers BLA, TLI. The Laggard Play group includes AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR.

Thai Oil (TOP) rose 4.49% to 69.75 baht, despite trading ex-dividend (XD) at 1.40 baht per share. News emerged that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is in talks with PTT, though not yet official. If a partnership materializes, TOP would likely benefit the most within the group, as its clean energy project CFP, slated for commercial production in 2027, requires substantial heavy crude oil, and ADNOC could support crude supply. The process might involve TOP issuing new shares to the new partner, with PTT unlikely to sell its existing stake. Meanwhile, refining margins in the second half are expected to improve seasonally, and geopolitical situations support crude prices and inventory gains, positively impacting Q3 2026 earnings. Brokers continue to rate TOP as a top pick in the sector, with a target price of 74 baht.

Thai Oil (TOP) shares continued to rise by 5.24% to 70.25 baht, despite the ex-dividend date, driven by buying on expectations of strong refining margins and the possibility of a new strategic partner. CLSA has selected TOP as a top pick in the Thai stock market. Meanwhile, ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi national oil company, is in talks to invest in a major Thai refinery, which could include a crude supply agreement and offtake of finished products to expand export markets. If the collaboration materializes, it is expected to enhance TOP's crude supply security, particularly for its Clean Fuel Project, and open opportunities to expand beyond Southeast Asia. However, the talks are still at an early stage with no conclusion yet. TOP has approved a dividend of 1.40 baht per share, with the ex-dividend date on September 9 and payment on September 24.