CP Axtra Public Company Limited operates wholesale and retail businesses for food and non-food products in Thailand, Malaysia, and internationally. It reports through the Wholesale and the Retail and Mall segments, offering general consumer goods such as fresh food, dry goods, and non-food products under the Makro brand via its online platform and wholesale stores. The company is also involved in food product import and trade, warehouse management, investment in commercial space management, production of raw and cooked protein products, dairy products, and other food-related products, building rental and integrated logistics services, and restaurant operations. It additionally provides freight, delivery rental, and storage services, as well as technical and supporting services. Formerly known as Siam Makro Public Company Limited, it changed its name to CP Axtra Public Company Limited in June 2023, was incorporated in 1988, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stimulus extension and AI tie-up lift CPAXT, but weak sales and Malaysia deal risks weigh
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Government stimulus extension boosts demand The Cabinet extended the Thai Chuay Thai Plus co-payment program by two months to November 30, 2026, with a 42.69 billion baht budget. This supports consumer spending and small shops that buy stock from Makro, directly benefiting CPAXT's sales.
This is a new government action that directly boosts CPAXT's demand and was not in earlier reports.
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Weak same-store sales and high energy costs pressure margins Tisco reported that CPAXT's Makro same-store sales fell 1% and Lotus's fell 4% in July, with weakness likely continuing. High oil prices above $100 raise logistics and utility costs, squeezing profits and potentially delaying recovery into late 2026.
This highlights the real counterweight: underlying sales weakness and cost pressures that could offset stimulus benefits.
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Malaysia acquisition raises governance concerns CPAXT is spending 13.4 billion baht to acquire The Food Purveyor in Malaysia, but the deal faces scrutiny over transparency and potential conflicts of interest due to linked management. This could weigh on investor confidence until details are clarified.
This is a new major capital allocation with governance risks that could affect CPAXT's valuation and investor trust.
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AI partnership to improve retail efficiency CP Group, AIS, True, and Amazon launched a five-year AI collaboration to transform over 19,000 service points, including 7-Eleven, Lotus's, and Makro, with AI and computer vision. This should enhance customer experience and operational efficiency for CPAXT's stores.
This is a new strategic technology initiative that could improve CPAXT's long-term competitiveness and margins.
Q3 2026
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Stimulus extension and AI tie-up lift CPAXT, but weak sales and Malaysia deal risks weigh
▲
Government stimulus extension boosts demand The Cabinet extended the Thai Chuay Thai Plus co-payment program by two months to November 30, 2026, with a 42.69 billion baht budget. This supports consumer spending and small shops that buy stock from Makro, directly benefiting CPAXT's sales.
This is a new government action that directly boosts CPAXT's demand and was not in earlier reports.
▼
Weak same-store sales and high energy costs pressure margins Tisco reported that CPAXT's Makro same-store sales fell 1% and Lotus's fell 4% in July, with weakness likely continuing. High oil prices above $100 raise logistics and utility costs, squeezing profits and potentially delaying recovery into late 2026.
This highlights the real counterweight: underlying sales weakness and cost pressures that could offset stimulus benefits.
◆
Malaysia acquisition raises governance concerns CPAXT is spending 13.4 billion baht to acquire The Food Purveyor in Malaysia, but the deal faces scrutiny over transparency and potential conflicts of interest due to linked management. This could weigh on investor confidence until details are clarified.
This is a new major capital allocation with governance risks that could affect CPAXT's valuation and investor trust.
▲
AI partnership to improve retail efficiency CP Group, AIS, True, and Amazon launched a five-year AI collaboration to transform over 19,000 service points, including 7-Eleven, Lotus's, and Makro, with AI and computer vision. This should enhance customer experience and operational efficiency for CPAXT's stores.
This is a new strategic technology initiative that could improve CPAXT's long-term competitiveness and margins.
News & notes movingCPAXT.BK
Thailand
CPAXT.BK
Kasikorn Securities says September SSSG recovered to +1.0%, led by food and retail
Kasikorn Securities reported that same-store sales growth, or SSSG, recovered to +1.0% in September, up from +0.4% in August and +0.6% in July. That made it the best month of the third quarter of 2026, led by the food and convenience store segments, with BJC, CPALL, CRC and TAN standing out as stocks showing improving momentum. CPAXT saw its B2B business improve while B2C remained negative at a mid single-digit rate. The research team expects SSSG for the consumer staples group to accelerate to +1–2% in the third quarter of 2026 from +0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, while the luxury goods group should improve to +1–3% from +0.4%. CRC's food business remains strong at +4–6%, and TAN rebounded sharply by 10% in September. The home decoration group remains weak, with third-quarter 2026 SSSG expected to improve only slightly to about -1.0% from 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026. DOHOME came in at around +4–5% off a very low base, while GLOBAL was at about -5%, and HMPRO and CRC's hardline group remained negative at a low single-digit rate. Kasikorn Securities maintained a neutral view on the commerce sector and favours food-focused retailers such as CPALL, as well as CRC, on the momentum in their food and fashion businesses, while home decoration retailers have a chance of a strategic recovery from demand for repairs and home improvements following the floods since early October.
KS-SBITO says floods only slightly dent tourism, recommends home-repair and retail stocks to benefit from recovery
Securities analysts at Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said that although nationwide reservoir water levels are as high as 78% of capacity, the tourism sector is still operating normally, so they estimate that third-quarter 2026 earnings for the tourism group will be affected only slightly. Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has reported no flight cancellations, and major airlines AAV, BA and THAI continue to operate as normal. Meanwhile, hotel operators led by AWC, CENTEL, DUSIT, ERW, MINT, SHR and VRANDA have suffered no property damage, though room booking cancellations in the provinces run about 2% to 15%, partly offset by guests extending their stays. KS therefore maintains its investment weighting on the hotel group, sees the drop in share prices driven by the flood factor as a buying opportunity, and recommends buying AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht. Separately, SBI Thai Online, or SBITO, assesses that this crisis will be a medium-term boost for four main business groups in the recovery: the home repair and construction materials group, led by HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and MR.DIY; the retail and consumer goods group, led by CPALL and CPAXT; the communications group, led by ADVANC and TRUE; and the tourism group, where economic activity will gradually recover after the situation eases.
AWC.BK · Capital · Positive KS recommends buying AWC with a 3.74 baht target price, calling the flood-driven share drop a buying opportunity.
CENTEL.BK · Capital · Positive KS recommends buying CENTEL with a 48.11 baht target price, viewing the flood-related price drop as a buying opportunity.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO expects the retail and consumer goods group led by CPALL to benefit from medium-term recovery after the floods.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO names CPAXT among the retail and consumer goods leaders expected to gain from post-flood recovery.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO lists DOHOME in the home repair and construction materials group set to benefit from flood recovery.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO names GLOBAL among home-repair and construction materials leaders expected to benefit from post-flood recovery demand.
TTBWEALTH Picks 8 Stocks to Benefit from Flooding, Highlighting Retail and Construction Materials
TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Property/Casualty & Reinsurance Underwriting ▼Demand
Climate Adaptation & Water › Resilient Buildings & Retrofit ▲Demand
AOT.BK · Demand · Negative AOT is listed among tourism groups negatively affected by the flooding as travel demand weakens.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Negative CENTEL had hotels hit by flooding (Lat Phrao lobby, Pattaya) with customer cancellations and food sales declines from store closures.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL is named a consumer-goods retail beneficiary as flooding drives stock-up demand.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT is named a consumer-goods retail beneficiary expected to gain from flood-related demand.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL/CPAXT/CRC named among consumer goods retail stocks expected to benefit from flooding-driven demand.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive DOHOME named in home improvement/construction materials group expected to benefit from post-flood home repair demand.
Brokers say retail stocks are buoyant as floods boost sales, recommend buying BJC, CPALL and CPAXT
Analysts at CGS International Securities (Thailand) said they hold a positive view on retail stocks, as flooding in many areas of Thailand has made travel inconvenient for the public and impossible in some areas, causing demand for food and consumer goods to rise clearly. They see this as a short-term positive for retail stocks and a driver of stronger sales growth for operators. The standout stocks in the group are BJC, CPALL and CPAXT. The research team gives a buy recommendation on BJC with a target price of 18.00 baht, while analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) give a buy recommendation on CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to grow from the same period a year earlier, supported by continued convenience store expansion and same-store sales growth. They expect fourth-quarter 2026 profit to recover strongly, with first-half 2026 profit forecast to account for about 53% of the full year, and they estimate full-year profit at about 31 billion baht, growth of roughly 8.4% from a year earlier. For CPAXT, they set a target price of 16.40 baht with a trading buy recommendation, after the company reported progress on the completed acquisition of 100% of the issued and paid-up shares of The Food Purveyor Sdn. Bhd., or TFP. TFP is one of the main players in Malaysia's premium retail business, holding about 30% market share, operating premium supermarkets under five brands: Village Grocer, B.I.G., BSC Fine Foods, OTK and The Food Merchant, with a network of 50 branches, mostly in city-centre locations and near tourist areas. The research team holds a neutral view on the transaction, estimating CPAXT's 2026 profit at 9.5 billion baht, growth of about 1.8% from 2025, and continuing to expand in 2027 by about 14.3% to roughly 11 billion baht.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive CGS gives buy on BJC with 18.00 baht target as flood-driven demand for food and consumer goods lifts retail sales.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Yuanta gives buy on CPALL with 63.00 baht target, citing flood-boosted sales plus convenience-store expansion and same-store sales growth.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Positive CPAXT gets trading buy with 16.40 baht target after completing acquisition of 100% of The Food Purveyor.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive Flooding in Thailand is seen lifting demand for food and consumer goods, a short-term positive for retail operators including CPAXT.
The Food Purveyor · Capital · Neutral TFP is the acquisition target of CPAXT; the research team holds a neutral view on the transaction.
Yuanta says Thai stocks to benefit from Bangkok floods, impact limited
Yuanta Securities said a depression caused rainfall to accelerate, triggering flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas over the past weekend, sparking panic and demand to stockpile essential goods. However, because this round lacked the additional pressure of northern runoff and high sea tides seen in 2011, conditions in many areas eased quickly, especially in inner Bangkok. The research team assesses the impact on investment sentiment as relatively limited, similar to the cases of Japan or South Korea, where situations eased quickly and barely affected investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the economic impact at a maximum of about 10 billion baht, or 0.05% of GDP, which is considered not large. The research team therefore maintains its EPS forecast for this year at 103 baht per share. The sector directly affected is insurance, from claims during the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, while sectors expected to be slightly affected are finance and commercial banks, from measures to help debtors. Sectors that may gain positive sentiment from stockpiling goods and home repairs are home improvement, construction materials, and retail and wholesale of essential goods, such as GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, CPALL, BJC, and CPAXT, as well as telecom operators ADVANC and TRUE, from data usage and work-from-home measures.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive Named among home improvement and construction material retailers expected to gain positive sentiment from stockpiling goods and home repairs after Bangkok floods.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Positive Named among home improvement retailers expected to benefit from stockpiling of goods and home repairs following the Bangkok flooding.
TRUE.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a telecom operator expected to gain from increased data usage and work-from-home measures during the Bangkok floods.
ADVANC.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a telecom operator expected to gain positive sentiment from data usage and work-from-home measures during the Bangkok floods.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive Named among retail/wholesale of essential goods expected to gain from stockpiling during the floods.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Named among retail/wholesale of essential goods expected to gain from stockpiling during the floods.
Asia Plus recommends 10 stocks set to benefit from flooding, flags risks weighing on the economy and the SET
The research team at Asia Plus Securities stated that fund flow remains a pressure point, while flood risk in Bangkok adds downside to the economy and the SET. Foreign capital flowed out of the Thai stock market for four consecutive trading days, totaling 8.2 billion baht between September 22 and 25, with net selling every day, while domestic investors were the main buyers, reflecting that buying in the market still relies more on domestic flow than on a return of foreign capital. During the recent holiday period, Bangkok faced nearly 48 hours of continuous heavy rain, with accumulated rainfall in some periods exceeding 300 millimeters over two to three days, causing many canals to reach full capacity and flooding in many areas, including some locations that are not normally flood-prone. The risk has therefore shifted from water awaiting drainage to disruption of travel, trade, and economic activity, which is significant because Bangkok accounts for roughly one-third of the country's GDP in terms of gross provincial product. Compared with major floods in the past, in 1983 the SET fell for five consecutive months, accumulating a 9.4% decline; in 1995 it fell for five months, down 14.2%; and in 2011 it dropped sharply by 19.2% in just two months before water entered Bangkok severely. The research team therefore views flooding as a factor that raises risk premium rather than waiting to see maximum damage before acting. For investment strategy, Asia Plus divides the relevant stocks into three groups based on the period in which they benefit. The first is consumer retail goods, namely CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC, which may see short-term demand from stockpiling of food, drinking water, and essentials. The second is hospitals, namely BDMS and BCH, which may benefit in the short to medium term from patients and diseases that come with flooding. The third group, which benefits more clearly during the receding water and recovery phase, includes HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TASCO, and DCC, driven by demand for construction materials, repair equipment, and home renovation.
Trinity flags insurance stocks as pressured after flash floods in Bangkok
Analysts at Trinity Securities assess that the flash flooding in Bangkok over the past weekend could create sentiment pressure on insurance stocks, especially companies with auto and property insurance portfolios that may face rising claim costs and loss reserves, such as TIPH and THRE. In addition, groups tied to people's mobility, including shopping malls and restaurants such as CRC and CPN, as well as mass transit operators like BEM and BTS, may be affected by a short-term drop in traffic. Conversely, Trinity sees a chance of positive sentiment for consumer staples retail stocks, such as convenience store operator CPALL and hypermarkets BJC and CPAXT, which may see short-term demand for stockpiling goods, as well as the home improvement and construction materials sector, which may benefit from post-flood purchasing demand, such as HMPRO and TOA.
Bualuang flags strong year-end 2026, touts petrochemical and power stocks to lead
Mr. Wikit Thirawannarat, IAA, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Investment Strategy at Bualuang Securities, unveiled a portfolio-adjustment strategy for the final stretch of the year in the fourth quarter of 2026, recommending investors rotate among sectors in step with the market. Stocks with their main revenue from overseas remain the key driver, because domestic purchasing power alone is not enough to move the market. The groups that outperformed the market in the third quarter of 2026 were those tied to the global economy and commodities, including petrochemicals, refineries, shipping stocks such as RCL and PRM, agricultural and food-export names such as TVO, TU and ITC, and electronic components such as KCE and HANA. Meanwhile, groups tied to domestic consumption, such as telecoms ADVANC and TRUE and retailers CPALL and CPAXT, rose more slowly than the market. Three investment themes lead the way. First, refineries and petrochemicals, where supply is tight and global demand is strong, with TOP trading at a price-to-book ratio of only about 0.7 times and paying consistent dividends. Second, power plants, expected to be the star performer in the fourth quarter, driven by the build-out of data centers and production bases by foreign companies, clarity on direct PPA contracts, and the power development plan. Third, energy and technology infrastructure, which benefits from transmission systems, substations, smart grids, smart meters, rooftop solar and submarine cable projects. As for industrial estates, after a big run-up in the first and second quarters of 2026, they are expected to enter a period of consolidation and rebound within a sideways range. On external factors, the surge in bond yields worldwide is a highlight to watch; if yields start to fall, that would be a key turning point for the stock market. The Bank of Japan may keep raising rates through the middle of next year, ending at around 1.75 to 2.0 percent, South Korea at 3.5 percent, Europe at 3.0 percent in the first quarter of next year, and the US Federal Reserve may hike another one to two times. As for new US tariffs, the assessment is that they will target specific rival countries rather than be imposed across the board, so Thailand is likely to escape them and may even benefit from cheaper imported raw materials such as soybeans and soybean meal, which would lower animal-feed costs and support meat-export groups such as chicken and pork. On investment strategy, short-term traders are advised to rotate through sector rotation, alternating between banks and commodities, while long-term investors are advised to focus on infrastructure and power plants, with standout large-cap stocks capable of winning projects and co-investing in infrastructure being GULF and PTT.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Solar ▲Demand
TOP.BK · Supply · Positive Highlighted in the refinery/petrochemical theme where supply is tight and global demand strong, with TOP at ~0.7x P/B and consistent dividends.
ADVANC.BK · Demand · Negative ADVANC is grouped among domestic-consumption telecoms that rose more slowly than the market, as domestic purchasing power is insufficient.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Negative CPALL is listed among domestic-consumption retailers that underperformed the market due to weak domestic purchasing power.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Negative CPAXT is listed among domestic-consumption retailers that rose more slowly than the market amid weak domestic consumption.
KCE.BK · Demand · Positive Named among electronic components (KCE, HANA) that outperformed on global-economy/export demand.
PRM.BK · Demand · Positive Named among shipping stocks (RCL, PRM) that outperformed the market on global-economy exposure.
Kasikorn says flood statistics only drag Thai stocks down 1%, advises waiting to buy at 1,565-1,580 points
Kasikorn Securities reviewed past flood statistics in Thailand, noting that since 2006 there have been more than 7 flood events, and found that the SET Index delivered negative returns of about 1% over a one-month period, except in 2011 when the great flood sent the SET down 14%. Sectors that outperformed the market were led by ICT and commercial banks, while financials and insurance fell about 2%, and electronics dropped the most at 8%, mostly due to 2011. As for the economic impact, excluding 2011, the monthly effect was in the range of 10 to 50 billion baht, or no more than 0.1-0.3% of GDP. And if assessed from the upside of extending the Khon La Khrueng co-payment scheme by 2 months, GDP estimates could come in around 2.0% plus or minus. Kasikorn Securities estimates the impact of this flood on the market's earnings per share forecast for 2026 to be fairly limited, and estimates the SET Index support range at 1,565-1,580 points, while viewing the decline as an opportunity to gradually accumulate banking, power plant, and electronics stocks, focusing on KTB, BBL, DELTA, and BGRIM. Meanwhile, many analysts view this flood situation, which occurred in late September 2026, as not yet as severe as the great flood of 2011, so panic selling is unlikely. Retail stocks benefit from stockpiling of food and essential goods, namely CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC, and after the water recedes it will be time for cleaning and home repairs, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, as well as road repairs, namely TASCO. Initially, state banks and commercial banks have rolled out customer assistance measures. For example, TMBThanachart Bank introduced the "Tang Lak" or "Get Back on Your Feet" measure covering all customer groups. Krungthai Bank introduced assistance measures for retail customers and SME operators, covering interest rate cuts and reduced installment payments, with customers able to express intent to join the program from September 26 to December 31, 2026. And Thai Airways is offering one free ticket change to help passengers affected by flooding in Bangkok and its vicinity.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive DOHOME is cited as a home-repair beneficiary once floodwaters recede.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive GLOBAL is named as a home-repair/cleaning beneficiary after the flood recedes.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Positive HMPRO is listed among home-repair/cleaning beneficiaries after the flood recedes.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Kasikorn recommends accumulating banking stocks like BBL, and state/commercial banks are rolling out customer assistance measures amid the flood.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive Kasikorn recommends accumulating DELTA (electronics) as the flood-driven decline is seen as a buying opportunity.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is recommended for accumulation and is rolling out customer assistance measures amid the flood.
Yuanta Securities Expects SET to Hold Steady at 1,600-1,610 Points, Eyes US-China Leaders' Meeting
Yuanta Securities assesses that the SET Index is likely to hold steady, with support at 1,600 points and resistance at 1,610 points. The market leaders remain the anti-oil group, namely power plants, packaging, and transport, while upstream energy and refinery stocks may consolidate as crude oil prices weaken for a fifth consecutive day, down another 2%, following news of a return to diplomatic negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran proposing to open the strait within 7 days in exchange for the United States reducing military and economic pressure. As for retail stocks, which have underperformed for a long time, a rotational rebound is expected after pressure from the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme eased, with the Cabinet meeting extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure by another 2 months with a 1,000 baht contribution, which the market had already anticipated, and is therefore seen as neutral on that conclusion. Retail and wholesale stocks such as CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC are expected to rebound in rotation. The factor to watch is the joint meeting between the Chinese and US presidents on September 24, which is still seen as neutral, with no concrete conclusion expected.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive Expected rotational rebound in retail/wholesale stocks as pressure from the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme eases after its 2-month extension.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL named among retail stocks expected to rebound in rotation as Thai Chai Thai Plus pressure eases.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT named among retail/wholesale stocks expected to rebound in rotation as Thai Chai Thai Plus pressure eases.
Asia Plus keeps retail sector weighting at market weight, picks CRC, COM7 and BJC as top picks
Asia Plus Securities said the Cabinet meeting on 22 September 2026 approved an additional 1,000 baht for the Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme, adding 500 baht per month for October and November 2026 under the same conditions, with the government paying 60% and the public paying 40%. The purchase limit for state welfare cardholders was also raised to 1,000 baht per person per month in October 2026, from 300 baht per person per month previously. The research team holds a neutral view on the impact of the scheme's extension, since the monthly amount was cut to just 500 baht from 1,000 baht during June to September 2026, and retail companies have so far received very little direct benefit from the scheme because their stores do not meet the conditions for joining the programme. The businesses likely to see a small benefit are wholesale consumer goods, fresh food and some construction materials that shops buy in to resell, which supports BJC, CPAXT, CRC and DOHOME. CPALL sees a negative effect but a fairly limited one, while HMPRO and COM7 are seen as unaffected. For third-quarter 2026 earnings trends, the research team expects the sector's combined profit to fall quarter on quarter on seasonality but to grow well year on year on positive same-store sales growth, store expansion, better margins and lower interest expenses. The research team keeps its investment weighting for the sector at market weight and still picks CRC, COM7 and BJC as top picks, given third-quarter 2026 profit trends that should grow year on year more strongly than the sector.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive BJC is named a top pick and a likely small beneficiary as a wholesale consumer goods business supported by the extended Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive CRC is a top pick and named among the likely small beneficiaries of the extended Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Negative CPALL is seen as negatively affected, though fairly limited, by the scheme extension.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT is listed among businesses likely to see a small benefit from wholesale consumer goods and fresh food demand under the scheme.
COM7.BK · · Neutral COM7 is named a top pick on strong Q3 2026 profit growth, but the article explicitly says it is unaffected by the stimulus scheme.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive The extended Thai Chai Thai Plus scheme supports wholesale consumer goods and construction materials that shops buy to resell, which the article says benefits DOHOME.
Foreign investors buy Thai stocks net 52.682 billion baht, boosted by fund flows and Meta's new AI model
Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.
META · Technology · Positive Meta launched a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, expected to extend its advertising business and accelerate AI capex demand.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive Meta's new free AI model expected to accelerate AI CAPEX demand, benefiting Thai component stocks especially DELTA.
HANA.BK · Demand · Positive Meta's new free AI model is expected to accelerate AI CAPEX demand, benefiting Thai component stocks especially HANA.
AMATA.BK · Regulation · Positive NBTC's proposed data center board criteria (power purchase agreements, domestic materials, sustainability) is expected to boost industrial estate stocks like AMATA.
CBG.BK · Demand · Positive Cabinet's Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 extension and welfare-card credit injection expected to benefit consumer goods stocks like CBG.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Stimulus measures expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPALL.
Lotus's Go Fresh Expands with Six Large-Format Stores, Highlighting Fresh Food and Full Online Integration
Lotus's Go Fresh, under CP Axtra Public Company Limited, or CPAXT, is pressing ahead with expanding its neighborhood supermarkets into larger formats in locations suited to each community, aiming to broaden its product range across fresh food, vegetables, fruit, frozen foods, and household essentials, while linking in-store services with online channels. There are six stores serving as the prototypes for this new format: the Soi Suphaphong branch in Bangkok, the Soi Rewadee 38 branch in Nonthaburi, the Phra Pokklao Road branch in Chiang Mai, the Sri That branch in Udon Thani, the Phuket Fantasea branch in Phuket, and the Pracha Suk Sawang Road branch in Chonburi. The company says this model has delivered strong operating results and that the experience gained from these stores can be leveraged to expand into other areas. CPAXT will apply feedback and lessons from the flagship stores to store layout, product selection, and service, with branch development taking into account location, floor space, and consumer behavior in each community. The new-format stores are also connected to Lotus's Shop Online, allowing customers to shop in store or order fresh food and essentials from their local branch for home delivery. Lotus's Go Fresh will continue to expand larger stores in suitable locations as it pursues its goal of becoming the leader in Thailand's supermarket market.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT is expanding Lotus's Go Fresh with six large-format prototype stores and full online integration, broadening product range and reach to drive sales.
InnovestX Unveils 4 Standout Stock Themes as SET Slips Below 1,600 Points
InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.
AMATA.BK · Regulation · Positive Named as a stock benefiting from government policy on the draft PDP2026 plan and rooftop solar support.
AOT.BK · Regulation · Positive Listed among stocks supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus economic stimulus program.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Selected as a bank benefiting from high bond yields after the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5%, and also cited for dividend yield above 5%.
AP.BK · Regulation · Positive Named in both the high-dividend defensive theme and the laggard theme on expected H2 2026 earnings growth.
BCH.BK · Capital · Positive Included in the laggard theme on expectations its second-half 2026 earnings will grow year on year and versus H1.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus and Thai Tiew Thai Plus stimulus programs.
CPAXT builds on Hidden Taste Thailand with ready-to-eat products, targets 300 RTE menu items
CP Axtra Public Company Limited, or CPAXT, which operates the Makro and Lotus's wholesale and retail businesses, is extending its cooking competition Hidden Taste Thailand Presented by Lotus's into product development under Lotus's own brand, covering ready-to-eat boxed meals, frozen food and bakery items. The full range of three formats is sold at large Hypermarket branches, while smaller Supermarket outlets focus on frozen food. Worawan Pianlikhitwong, Chief Transformation Officer of CPAXT, said the model treats content as a starting point that is extended into real products and experiences. The programme is Lotus's own entertainment intellectual property, built on the concept of from screen to plate. It drew 100 contestants from a wide range of professions, the largest number among cooking competitions in Thailand, and worked with food experts from Suan Dusit University to develop and select menus under a 3C model spanning content, community and commerce. Among the most popular dishes are crispy salt-and-chilli chicken wings from Wa, a home cook from the Monthong community, and creamy mushroom carbonara spaghetti, the winning dish of season one by Chef On. The company is also extending the programme into a Hidden Taste Thailand Pop-up Experience that brings the show's chefs to meet consumers in its branches, starting at Happitat as the first location, with plans to rotate the event through major branches nationwide. It aims to expand its ready-to-eat, or RTE, portfolio to a total of 300 menu items, in line with its Happy & Healthy Mall strategy to elevate itself into a full-service food destination.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT is extending Hidden Taste Thailand into Lotus's own-brand ready-to-eat products and targeting 300 RTE menu items, expanding its product offering and food-destination strategy.
Land and Houses recommends buying CPAXT on weakness with a 17.00 baht target, awaiting a recovery in Q4 2026
Land and Houses Securities recommends "buy on weakness" for CP Axtra Public Company Limited, or CPAXT, with a target price of 17.00 baht, expecting net profit to begin recovering from the fourth quarter of 2026 onward and to grow strongly in 2027. Land and Houses assesses that third-quarter 2026 earnings will weaken both year on year and quarter on quarter, pressured by the low season during the rainy months, energy price pressure, and the recognition of a further 200 million baht loss from the Happitat project this quarter. Total sales are still expected to grow 1-2% year on year, driven by store expansion and omni-channel operations, even though overall purchasing power remains weak due to the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" program and energy prices, with same-store sales growth still negative overall. Meanwhile, the acquisition of The Food Purveyor in Malaysia, valued at about 13.1 billion baht, will help drive retail revenue growth of 4% and lift overall margins, beginning to contribute 1-2% to net profit from 2027.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Positive Land and Houses Securities recommends buy on weakness with a 17.00 baht target, expecting profit recovery from Q4 2026.
The Food Purveyor · Capital · Positive CPAXT's acquisition of The Food Purveyor for about 13.1 billion baht will drive retail revenue growth and margin improvement from 2027.
LH.BK · Capital · Neutral Land and Houses Securities is the analyst issuing the CPAXT recommendation, not a subject of the news.
Finance Ministry Permanent Secretary Backs Extension of Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2; Brokers Favor CPAXT, BJC, NEO as Beneficiaries
Lavaron Sangsnit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and chairman of the screening committee for the 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree, said there is justification and necessity to extend the Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 program, as energy price pressures from external factors remain prolonged, especially oil prices that have risen above 100 again. The existing program ends on September 30, so it must be pushed forward quickly to avoid a gap in assistance to the public. As for the funding, the first relief loan tranche of 200 billion baht now has about 40 billion baht remaining; at the current payout rate it would last only one month. But under legal provisions, funds can be shifted from the second tranche of 200 billion baht to top up the first, allowing the program to be extended beyond one month, or possibly through the end of the year. The screening committee is scheduled to meet this week before submitting the matter to the Cabinet for approval. Meanwhile, analysts at Dao Securities (Thailand) have a positive view on retail and related stocks, favoring CPAXT with a buy rating and a target price of 17.00 baht, and BJC with a buy rating and a target price of 18.50 baht, as they are key suppliers to general stores and restaurants participating in the program. They also favor NEO in the consumer goods group with a buy rating and a target price of 27.00 baht. The research team expects third-quarter 2026 profit to grow from the same period last year on domestic revenue growth of 12%, and has raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 13% and 3% respectively. It projects 2026 net profit at about 642 million baht, up 14% from the previous year.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive BJC named by Dao Securities as a key supplier to stores and restaurants in the Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 program, which is set to be extended.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT favored with a buy rating and 17.00 baht target as a beneficiary of the extended Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 program.
NEO.BK · Demand · Positive NEO favored in the consumer goods group with a buy rating and 27.00 baht target, expected to gain from the program extension and domestic revenue growth.
CPAXT spends 13.4 billion baht to acquire The Food Purveyor in Malaysia, governance and conflict-of-interest concerns in focus
CP Axtra, or CPAXT, is spending more than 13.4 billion baht to acquire The Food Purveyor, or TFP, in Malaysia, and will need to expand investment in IT and AI systems to connect cross-border supply chains. The capital market is watching the transparency of this deal, because Supachai Chearavanont, chairman of the board and chairman of the executive committee of CPAXT, serves as chief executive officer and holds 99.99% of Arise Ventures, or Arise, which is linked to a 24.95% stake in TRUE and could become a major trading partner of the organisation in the future. The interlinked management structure between the party that reviews budgets and a prospective trading partner means CPAXT's independent directors must tighten their use of the related-party transaction, or RPT, criteria of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC. Infrastructure investment to support further branch expansion should go through an open bidding process and rely on fair market value mechanisms to protect the best interests of the public company and prevent doubts about conflicts of interest. Managing conflicts of interest transparently is a key test of the CPAXT board's ability to protect the value of the business.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Neutral CPAXT is spending 13.4 billion baht to acquire The Food Purveyor, an M&A deal whose transparency and conflict-of-interest concerns are under scrutiny.
The Food Purveyor · Capital · Neutral The Food Purveyor is the acquisition target in CPAXT's 13.4 billion baht deal, with governance concerns around the transaction.
Arise Ventures Group · · Neutral Arise Ventures is cited as Supachai Chearavanont's vehicle linked to a TRUE stake and a possible future trading partner, but no direct impact is stated.
Tisco expects government to extend Thai Chai Thai Plus by 1-2 months, pressuring retail stocks
Tisco Securities said Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced on Friday that the government wants to extend the Thai Chai Thai Plus programme, which was originally scheduled to end in late September, using remaining budget funds. The research team expects the government may top it up with unused money from other measures under the original 200 billion baht budget ceiling, which should be enough to extend the programme by about one month, or 25 billion baht, or at most two months. Tisco's research team views the programme as negative for the commerce sector, especially retail businesses, because it prolongs the pressures the sector already faces. Same-store sales growth in July was negative across almost the entire group, with the exception of CPALL, which was supported by the tourism recovery even though its growth rate was only 1-2%. CPAXT, whose Makro was down 1% and Lotus's down 4%, and BJC, down 1%, continued to report negative same-store sales growth, and the research team expects those figures may remain weak in August as well. If the programme is extended through October or November, the weakness in same-store sales growth could carry over into fourth-quarter 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose to 100 US dollars a barrel for the first time since 23 July, and higher energy prices may be one of the key reasons the prime minister wants to extend the spending support programme. For retail operators already facing weak same-store sales growth, this factor will add pressure on margins through higher logistics, transport and utility costs, reinforcing the research team's view that 2026 remains a challenging year for the commerce group. It also believes high energy prices may lead the market to expect the Bank of Thailand to raise its policy rate sooner than anticipated. Under such a scenario, investment flows may rotate out of the economic recovery theme, which includes the commerce group as well as tourism, transport and healthcare, and into energy and banking stocks.
BJC.BK · Demand · Negative BJC's same-store sales fell 1% and the Thai Chai Thai Plus extension prolongs weak retail demand, with high energy costs further pressuring margins.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Negative CPALL's same-store sales growth was only 1-2% and the programme extension prolongs retail-sector pressure, with higher energy costs adding margin pressure.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Negative CPAXT's Makro same-store sales fell 1% and Lotus's fell 4%, and the Thai Chai Thai Plus extension prolongs the retail weakness into Q4 2026.
Watch for Phase Two of "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" — Standout Stocks CPAXT, BJC, CPALL
The Ministry of Finance is considering extending the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" program, a 60/40 co-payment measure, by roughly one to two months from its original end date of September 30, 2026. The co-payment formula may be adjusted from 60/40 to 50/50 or to the "Khon La Khrueng" half-half format if the extension goes ahead. The program is drawing close attention amid the protracted war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, which has pushed crude oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel, pressuring travel costs, transport costs, and the public's cost of living. From a stock market perspective, the stock expected to benefit most is CPAXT, which not only gains directly from consumers but is also supported by the mom-and-pop shops and small retailers joining the program, who must buy stock from Makro. Previously, Krungsri Securities viewed CPAXT as one of the stocks benefiting from the measure and gave it a target price of 19 baht. BJC, or Berli Jucker, holds both the Big C retail business and a consumer goods business. CPALL benefits directly from higher consumption through its nationwide 7-Eleven network. Globlex Securities also previously picked CPALL and CPAXT as stocks benefiting from government measures and the stimulus of purchasing power, while consumer goods names such as CBG and OSP stand to gain in a "second round" manner.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT is expected to benefit most, gaining directly from consumers plus mom-and-pop shops buying stock from Makro under the program.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL benefits directly from higher consumption through its nationwide 7-Eleven network under the co-payment program.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive BJC's Big C retail and consumer goods businesses stand to gain from the Thai Chuay Thai Plus co-payment stimulus boosting consumption.
CBG.BK · Demand · Positive CBG is cited as a consumer goods name that stands to gain in a 'second round' manner from the stimulus measure.
OSP.BK · Demand · Positive OSP is cited as a consumer goods name that stands to gain in a 'second round' manner from the stimulus measure.
Yuanta keeps Overweight on retail stocks, picks BJC as Top Pick
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) expects that in July and August 2026, the SSSG of retail stocks under its coverage will come in at around -1% to +1% year on year, flat to improved compared with an average of -0.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, and better than -3.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. For the consumer staples group, comprising CPALL, CPAXT, BJC and CRC, average SSSG is expected at -0.5% year on year, an improvement from -1.0% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 and -1.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, led by BJC, whose SSSG in August 2026 turned positive for the first time in 2026. CPALL is expected at +1% to +3% year on year and CRC at +1% to +3% year on year, while CPAXT remains weak, with Makro expected to contract 1% to 2% year on year and Lotus expected to contract 3% to 5% year on year. For the home improvement group, comprising GLOBAL, DOHOME and HMPRO, average SSSG is expected at -0.8% year on year, flat from -0.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 but better than -5.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2025. DOHOME improved to +5% to +7% year on year on a low base, while GLOBAL and HMPRO remain weak at -5% to -7% year on year and -1% to -3% year on year respectively. The research team expects the retail group's normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to fall quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, but still grow year on year, supported by revenue growth in line with SSSG trends and planned branch expansion, with gross margins expected to improve year on year on still-high product prices. The year-to-date return of SETCOMMERCE stands at +11%, a significant laggard versus the SET Index at +29%, and retail stocks trade at an average 2026 PER of only 15.1 times, close to -1.4 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. The research team therefore maintains its Overweight investment weighting and picks BJC as Top Pick with a target price of 18.00 baht, and is in the process of reviewing upward its earnings forecasts and target price, expected at around plus or minus 19 baht, on the strong SSSG recovery in August 2026, with the stock trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.7 times, below -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average. It also picks CPALL with a target price of 63.00 baht on the continued SSSG recovery trend and still-cheap valuation, trading at a 2026 PER of only 13.5 times, equivalent to -2 standard deviations of the five-year historical average.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive BJC's SSSG turned positive in August 2026 for the first time in 2026, leading the consumer staples group's improvement, and is named Yuanta's Top Pick.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Negative GLOBAL's SSSG remains weak at -5% to -7% YoY, indicating continued soft end-customer demand.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Negative HMPRO's SSSG remains weak at -1% to -3% YoY, reflecting soft end-customer demand.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL's SSSG is expected at +1% to +3% year on year, above the consumer staples average.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Negative CPAXT remains weak, with Makro expected to contract 1%-2% and Lotus 3%-5% year on year.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive CRC's SSSG is expected at +1% to +3% year on year, above the consumer staples average.
KS and ASPS Expect Retail Sector SSSG to Recover, Highlighting CPALL, MOSHI, CRC
Kasikorn Securities (KS) assesses that same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the retail sector in August 2026 is likely to expand slightly at 0-1%, supported by a low base in the previous year. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) views that SSSG will mostly turn slightly positive, led by BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, but CPAXT and HMPRO remain negative due to not participating in the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" project. KS expects the average SSSG for the sector in July-August to turn positive at approximately 0.5%, from a negative 0.6% in Q2 2026, and selects CPALL, MOSHI, and CRC as top picks. ASPS, on the other hand, selects CRC, COM7, and BJC. The research side maintains a "Neutral" view on the commerce sector, and ASPS maintains an "Equal-weight" investment rating on the commerce sector, expecting sector profits in 2026 to grow 12% year-on-year.
Asia Plus Securities Picks CRC, COM7, BJC as Top Retail Stocks, Expects Profit Growth
Asia Plus Securities assesses retail stocks, expecting that the SSSG in August 2026 for most companies will trend slightly positive, including BJC, CPALL, CRC, and DOHOME, due to a low base in the previous year and product price adjustments. Meanwhile, CPAXT and HMPRO are expected to remain negative due to fragile purchasing power and the impact of not participating in the Thai Helps Thai Plus project. For the third quarter of 2026, the group's SSSG is expected to be slightly positive, with DOHOME likely to grow the most at around 4-5%, while HMPRO and CPAXT are likely to decline the most. The group's total profit is expected to decrease QoQ but grow well YoY, driven by positive SSSG, store expansion, and improved margins. The research department maintains a market-weight rating and selects CRC, COM7, and BJC as top picks due to their outstanding third-quarter profit trends.
CPAXT Revamps 60 Projects Across Thailand, Boosting Hypermarket for Long-Term Growth
CP Axtra, or CPAXT, the operator of Makro-Lotus, has announced plans to develop and renovate 60 projects across 29 provinces nationwide between 2026 and 2027 under the Happy & Healthy Mall strategy. This initiative elevates the Hypermarket from a traditional retail space to the core of projects that attract people to shopping centers, linking shopping and lifestyle under four pillars: Food Destination, Lifestyle, Wellness, and Sustainability. It also adds over 50,000 products, focusing on fresh food, ready-to-eat meals, and craft-style bakery through Open Kitchen, and utilizes retail technologies such as AI and Electronic Shelf Labels to enhance customer experience and drive long-term growth.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Positive CPAXT announces a 60-project renovation and development plan across 29 provinces for 2026-2027, a major capex/growth investment.
Retail Stocks Rally on End of Economic Stimulus Measures
Retail stocks rose, led by BJC, which gained 3.03% to 17.00 baht, while CPAXT and CPALL advanced 1.37% and 1.09%, respectively. This follows broker expectations that the end of the government's economic stimulus program in September will help reduce spending distortions and support a return to positive same-store sales growth (SSSG). Tisco Securities noted that August SSSG for the retail group declined 0.6% from June, but BJC was the only one to report positive SSSG, beating expectations. Meanwhile, CPALL remains a standout due to the tourism recovery and ready-to-eat food, while CPAXT still faces pressure from the stimulus program. We expect September trends to be similar to August, as the stimulus program continues to affect consumer spending patterns for the remainder of the measure.
CPAXT invests 13.5 billion baht to buy TFP in Malaysia; KKPS keeps Hold with target price of 16.70 baht
CPAXT has agreed to acquire The Food Purveyor (TFP) in Malaysia for 1.66 billion ringgit, or approximately 13.5 billion baht. The deal was approved by regulators on September 1, 2026, and is expected to boost CPAXT's retail sales by about 4% in 2027, but the impact on net profit in the same year is only about 2% due to financing costs from a loan covering 80% of the deal value at an interest rate of 3%. TFP is a premium supermarket operator in Malaysia under the brands Village Grocer, BSC Fine Foods, and The Food Merchant, with about 50 branches, and has a revenue growth rate about twice that of the Malaysian food retail industry, which grew about 4% in 2025. However, the acquisition price is relatively high, with an implied P/E of about 28 times, assuming a net profit margin of 5%. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) maintains a "Hold" recommendation on CPAXT shares with a target price of 16.70 baht, viewing the deal as having long-term strategic rationale in expanding into the premium market and increasing bargaining power with suppliers, but the short-term earnings boost is limited. Meanwhile, earnings per share (EPS) estimates are expected to rise from 0.897 baht in 2025 to 1.11 baht in 2028, and the dividend yield is about 5-6%.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Neutral CPAXT agrees to acquire Malaysia's TFP for 13.5 billion baht, a debt-funded M&A deal with limited near-term earnings boost and a rich 28x implied P/E.
The Food Purveyor · Capital · Neutral TFP is the acquisition target, a premium Malaysian supermarket operator with ~50 branches and revenue growth twice the industry's.
KKP.BK · Capital · Neutral KKPS is only cited as maintaining a Hold rating and 16.70 baht target on CPAXT, not as a subject of the news.
CPAXT Eyes TFP to Boost Profit, Sets Base Price at 15 Baht
KGI Securities (Thailand) stated that CPAXT has launched "The Happitat" project on August 21, 2026, under the concept of "Happiness-Led Destination," with a total investment value of 15 billion baht. The project is divided into three main towers, with a total retail area of approximately 43,000 square meters and a total office area of approximately 24,000 square meters. It is expected to attract about 19 million visitors per year and is expected to recognize a loss of 500 million baht from this project this year. In the acquisition of ordinary shares of The Food Purveyor Sdn. Bhd. Group (TFP), the final price was MRR 1,597 million, or approximately 13.095 billion baht, with 80% of the funding coming from bank loans. The company expects TFP's sales to account for approximately 4% of its retail sales and to support profit growth from 2027 onwards. However, CPAXT's profit is expected to decline in the third and fourth quarters of this year due to the impact of government stimulus measures and business expansion costs. The company maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 8.8 billion baht and maintains a "Hold" recommendation with a year-end 2026F target price of 15.00 baht, based on a PER of 18.0 times.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Neutral CPAXT's TFP acquisition (~13.1bn baht, 80% debt-funded) is expected to support profit growth from 2027, but Q3/Q4 profit is seen declining on stimulus impacts and expansion costs, with a Hold rating and 15-baht target.
KGI.BK · Capital · Neutral KGI Securities is only the analyst issuing the Hold rating and 15.00-baht target price on CPAXT, not a subject of the news.
CPAXT closes deal to acquire The Food Purveyor for 1.3 billion baht
CP Axtra, or CPAXT, announced the completion of its acquisition of The Food Purveyor, a premium supermarket operator in Malaysia, for 1,660 million Malaysian ringgit, or approximately 13,483 million baht. Its subsidiary, Lotuss Stores (Malaysia), acquired 100% of the shares on September 1, 2026, after fulfilling conditions and obtaining regulatory approvals. This makes The Food Purveyor an indirect subsidiary, operating under the brands Village Grocer, B.I.G., BSC Fine Foods, OTK, and The Food Merchant, with a total of 50 branches. KGI Securities expects TFP's profit to be around 38 million ringgit, or 300 million baht per year, based on a 31% market share in Malaysia's premium supermarket market, which is valued at 4.1 billion ringgit, and a net margin of 3%. Meanwhile, CPAXT may incur debt of 60-70% of the investment value and use some cash of around 4-5 billion baht, causing its debt-to-equity ratio to rise from 0.4 times to 0.42-0.43 times. The outlook is neutral due to limited synergies, and third-quarter profit is expected to decline due to government stimulus measures and business expansion costs. The recommendation is 'Hold' with a target price of 15 baht.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Neutral CPAXT completed its 13.5bn baht acquisition of The Food Purveyor, funded largely by debt, lifting D/E to 0.42-0.43x with neutral outlook and limited synergies.
The Food Purveyor · Capital · Positive The Food Purveyor is acquired by CPAXT's subsidiary for 1,660 million ringgit, becoming an indirect subsidiary with 50 branches.
Lotuss Stores (Malaysia) · Capital · Neutral Lotuss Stores (Malaysia) is the acquiring subsidiary that bought 100% of The Food Purveyor shares, a transaction execution detail.
KGI.BK · Capital · Neutral KGI Securities is cited only as the analyst issuing the Hold rating, 15 baht target price, and profit estimates for CPAXT.
CPAXT rated AA-, to issue 15 billion baht in debentures
TRIS Rating has assigned a rating of "AA-" to the new senior unsecured debentures of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT), with a total issue amount not exceeding 15 billion baht and a tenor of up to 3 years. The company will use the proceeds to repay existing bank loans. At the same time, TRIS Rating has affirmed the company's corporate and existing debenture ratings at "AA-" with a "Stable" outlook, reflecting its status as a key subsidiary of CPALL. In the first half of 2026, total revenue increased by 3.6% to 268 billion baht, but EBITDA decreased by 2.5% to 17 billion baht, and the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio rose to 5.1 times. The company plans to refinance its debt with the new debentures and is preparing to acquire a premium supermarket in Malaysia for 14 billion baht, having already secured a loan facility from a Malaysian bank.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Positive TRIS assigns AA- rating to up to 15 billion baht new debentures and affirms corporate rating with Stable outlook, a financing/credit event for CPAXT.
GGC partners with CPAXT to study collection of used cooking oil for high-value products
Global Green Chemicals Public Company Limited (GGC) and CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) have signed a memorandum of understanding for strategic cooperation to study the feasibility of collecting and managing used cooking oil (UCO), with the goal of improving the quality of used oil and developing it into value-added products under the concept of turning waste into opportunity, while supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. This cooperation aims to apply the circular economy concept to reduce waste and increase the value of raw materials. Witnesses to the signing included Mr. Adisak Chusuk, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency; Mr. Phakphong Wangrattanasophon, Chief Operating Officer of the Basic and Intermediate Chemicals Business Group of GC; and Lieutenant General Thitawat Sathienthip, Director of GGC, at the Lotus headquarters.
GGC.BK · Demand · Positive GGC partners with CPAXT to study collecting used cooking oil as feedstock for developing high-value products.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT signs MOU with GGC to collect and manage used cooking oil, creating a new value-added business channel from its waste oil.
CP Group, AIS, True, and Amazon Join Forces to Propel Thailand into Regional AI Hub
Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group), AIS Ventures Group, True Corporation, and Amazon have announced a five-year strategic partnership to elevate Thailand into a regional AI hub, with the goal of training 3 million Thais, including CP Group employees, in cloud and AI skills through courses and training programs in collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The partnership covers multiple areas, including the development of CP Group's AI Center of Excellence, elevating True into an AI-First Organization, using AWS in Ascend Money's financial services, and transforming over 19,000 service points of 7-Eleven, Lotus's, and Makro with AI and cloud technology. Additionally, an AI innovation hackathon platform named "AI FOR ALL" will be launched, allowing Thais aged 18 and above to develop Generative AI prototypes to address national challenges in public health, agriculture, and education. Mr. Supachai Chearavanont, Senior Vice President of CP Group, stated that Thailand must build a robust AI ecosystem and leverage the Thai capital market as a gateway for future startup listings.
Cloud & Digital Infrastructure › Mega-cap Hyperscalers ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Applications & Copilots ▲Demand
Cloud & Digital Infrastructure › Horizontal SaaS Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Tooling, Data & MLOps ▲Demand
Charoen Pokphand Group · Demand · Positive CP Group partners with AWS to train 3 million Thais and transform its businesses with AI, boosting demand for AWS services.
AMZN · Demand · Positive AWS partnership to train 3 million Thais and deploy AI across CP Group businesses, expanding cloud adoption.
TRUE.BK · Demand · Positive Elevating True into an AI-First Organization, leveraging AWS for innovation.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Transforming 19,000 7-Eleven service points with AI and cloud technology, enhancing operations.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive Lotus's and Makro service points to be transformed with AI and cloud technology.
Ascend Money · Demand · Positive Using AWS in Ascend Money's financial services to enhance offerings.
CP AXTRA Opens Happitat, a New Happiness Landmark in Bang Na
CP AXTRA officially launched Happitat on 21 August, spanning more than 200,000 square metres in the Bang Na area under the Happy & Healthy Mall concept, aiming to elevate its retail business into an experience platform. The project comprises three main buildings: Bloominas, Wonderwild, and Festie Town, along with The Hilltop Offices, a 10-storey office building targeting LEED Gold and WELL Gold standards. A key sustainability highlight is its connection to more than 30 rai of natural forest and a zero waste to landfill goal. The launch event featured a drone show with more than 2,222 drones, setting a new record for Thailand.
Asia Plus sees retail group 2Q26 profit up 11% YoY
Asia Plus Securities estimates combined normalized profit of seven commerce companies, namely BJC, COM7, CPALL, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME and HMPRO, in the second quarter of 2026 at 16 billion baht, down 15% from the previous quarter but up 11% from a year earlier. The quarterly softening came from seasonal effects and higher selling and administrative expenses from energy costs and business expansion, while year-on-year growth was supported by better gross margins at almost every company. DOHOME posted the strongest profit growth in the group both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year at 22% and 94% respectively, driven by higher steel product margins. CPAXT was the weakest, with profit down 33% from the previous quarter and 20% from a year earlier because selling and administrative expenses rose from expanded logistics capacity. The research team expects combined normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 to still contract quarter-on-quarter due to seasonality, as the rainy season brings the lowest sales of the year and construction material margins normalize, which would weigh most on DOHOME. However, profit is expected to keep growing year-on-year thanks to a low base in the third quarter of 2025, business expansion and higher margins. Profit is forecast to accelerate again both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, which is the high season.
CPAXT to open 15 billion baht Happitat project on 21 August
CP Axtra is set to officially open the Happitat project, worth more than 15 billion baht, on 21 August, targeting an 85% occupancy rate for the shopping centre by the end of this year, higher than the original target of 80% by the end of 2026. Currently 197 brands have reserved space, with around 100 brands already open, and average daily visitors are expected to reach 50,000 to 80,000. The 10-storey Hilltop Offices building has about seven and a half floors reserved, representing an occupancy rate of more than 70%. If this first shopping centre project succeeds, the company plans to expand the business model to major provincial cities in the future.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive Opening of Happitat project with high occupancy targets and strong brand reservations indicates strong demand for its shopping centre and offices.
Yuanta maintains buy rating on OSP with target price of 21.80 baht
Yuanta Securities maintains a buy recommendation on Osotspa Public Company Limited, or OSP, with a fair value of 21.80 baht, after attending an analyst meeting yesterday. The broker expects third-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 750 to 850 million baht, down quarter-on-quarter due to seasonality but still growing year-on-year, even though revenue from Myanmar is pressured by import licenses and the new accounting standard TAS21. Domestic business is expected to grow 5 to 7 percent, supported by energy drinks, health drinks, and personal care products. Gross margin is expected to decline to 39.5 to 40.5 percent due to packaging and ingredient costs, but still rise slightly from a year earlier thanks to the consolidation of production at the Ayutthaya facility. Management said the import license issue in Myanmar is starting to ease, and sales in Laos and Indonesia are strong, so overseas revenue in the second half of 2026 may decline less than in the first half. For the fourth quarter, profit is expected to return to growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. The company will lease 45 rai of land to CPAXT for 30 years and will begin recognizing rental income of about 40 million baht per year from the second quarter of 2027. Yuanta maintains its 2026 and 2027 normalized profit forecasts at 3.861 billion baht and 4.12 billion baht, respectively, and notes the first-half 2026 dividend of 0.45 baht per share, representing a yield of 2.5 percent. The stock will trade ex-dividend on August 27, 2026, with payment on September 10, 2026.
CGSI says CPALL Q3 is the year's trough before a strong Q4 rebound
Analysts at CGS International Securities Thailand, or CGSI, said CPALL posted core profit of 7.4 billion baht, up 5.6% from a year earlier but down 17.1% from the previous quarter in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, in line with the firm's estimate and Bloomberg consensus. The modest year-on-year profit growth reflected weaker earnings at CPAXT and higher total operating expenses, partly offset by still-strong convenience store earnings and lower interest expenses. The convenience store and related businesses grew revenue 5.3% from a year earlier, with EBIT margin up 60 basis points to 10.0% and net profit up 13.5% from a year earlier. As a result, first-half fiscal 2026 net profit came to 16.6 billion baht, up 15.9% from a year earlier and equal to 53% of the firm's full-year estimate. Same-store sales in the convenience store business grew 0.8% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with low single-digit growth in April to May before flattening in June because the launch of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme temporarily pulled purchasing power away from 7-Eleven stores. Management said during the analyst meeting after the results announcement that same-store sales in the first 10 to 12 days of June were negative at a low single-digit rate before gradually recovering late in the month. Spending per bill rose 0.9% from a year earlier while customer traffic fell 0.7% from a year earlier. However, merchandise margins remained strong, with food margins up 30 basis points from a year earlier, non-food margins up 20 basis points, and the average margin on all merchandise up 20 basis points to 28.0% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, thanks to a higher sales mix of ready-to-eat products. Higher fuel costs for transporting goods from distribution centers to stores partly offset the benefit, leaving the convenience store business gross margin flat at 29.3%, while the ratio of selling, general and administrative expenses to operating revenue fell 30 basis points from a year earlier to 27.3%. CGSI analysts expect the third quarter of fiscal 2026 to remain CPALL's weakest quarter of the year, due to slower sales during the rainy season, the full-quarter impact of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme, and still-soft results at CPAXT. However, the trough may not be as severe as feared, with management saying the impact in June was lower than expected and smaller than during the Khon La Khrueng Plus scheme in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. The analysts therefore expect convenience store same-store sales to recover significantly in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 once the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme ends in September, supported by the high season for tourism and a low base from government measures in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. In addition, lower oil prices should help reduce transport costs from distribution centers to stores and support gross margin expansion. CGSI analysts said consolidated core profit growth of only 5.6% from a year earlier masks improving fundamentals in the convenience store business, as seen in revenue growth of 5.3% from a year earlier, EBIT margin up 60 basis points to 10.0%, higher merchandise margins, and more effective cost control. At the same time, the impact from the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme was smaller than the market feared, so downside risk should ease in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 and the recovery should become clearer in the fourth quarter. CGSI therefore maintains a buy rating on CPALL with an unchanged target price of 61.50 baht, seeing upside from stronger-than-expected consumption and tourism recovery, while downside risks are a larger-than-expected impact from the Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme and weak domestic demand weighing on sales.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Negative Same-store sales growth slowed to 0.8% and June sales were negative due to Thai Chuay Thai Plus scheme pulling demand away from 7-Eleven.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Negative Weaker earnings at CPAXT contributed to CPALL's modest profit growth, indicating softer demand or performance at the subsidiary.
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited said CPALL reported 2Q26 core profit of 7.40 billion baht, up 6% from a year earlier but down 17% from the previous quarter, broadly in line with analyst and market expectations. Including a foreign exchange gain of 113 million baht, net profit was 7.51 billion baht, up 11% from a year earlier but down 18% from the previous quarter on seasonal factors. Year-on-year growth came from the convenience store business and related businesses, which accounted for 85% of profit, with profit rising 18% on a 0.8% increase in same-store sales. Store count expanded to 16,284, up 689 stores from a year earlier and 200 stores from the previous quarter. Selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales fell 20 basis points from a year earlier, and sales support income grew well, helping to offset CPAXT profit, which accounted for 15% of profit and fell 18% from a year earlier due to weaker same-store sales, with wholesale down 0.9% and retail down 3.9%. Gross margin fell 20 basis points from a year earlier, while expenses rose to support online channels, new stores, and Happitat. For 3Q26 core profit momentum, growth from a year earlier is still expected because convenience store same-store sales are still growing 1%, and energy cost pressure is expected to ease, so convenience store gross margin should expand from a year earlier. Meanwhile, core profit is expected to soften from the previous quarter on rainy-season seasonality. Krungsri Securities maintains a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 66 baht, viewing CPALL as a defensive growth stock driven by new product strategies and improving 7-Eleven margins, allowing profit to grow even while purchasing power recovers slowly. Core profit for 2026 to 2027 is forecast at 30.5 billion baht and 32.7 billion baht, growing 8% and 7% from a year earlier respectively. The stock trades at a one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 13.6 times, about one standard deviation below its three-year average, with upside of around 35%.
Brokers see slow second-half recovery for CPAXT after Q2 2026 profit stumble
Most brokers maintain a Hold or Neutral rating on CPAXT after second-quarter 2026 net profit fell both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to about 1.87 to 1.9 billion baht, below expectations, due to higher SG&A expenses from store expansion and omnichannel systems, as well as weaker same-store sales. The B2B wholesale business declined 0.9% and B2C retail fell 3.9% amid slowing purchasing power and the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. On the positive side, core business revenue grew from new store openings and online channels, along with income recognition from Lucky Frozen and data monetization. The Lotus's business in Malaysia also continued to grow, and a first-half dividend of 0.18 baht per share was announced, with the ex-dividend date on 20 August 2026, representing a yield of about 1.2%. However, analysts expect third-quarter profit to remain weak as it is the low season, and see downside risk to full-year 2026 profit estimates of about 9.45 to 9.67 billion baht. Additional pressure comes from losses at The Happitat project, which are expected to increase by about 200 million baht per quarter, and interest expenses from the acquisition of The Food Purveyors in Malaysia worth about 14 billion baht.
CPAXT.BK · Capital · Negative Q2 2026 net profit fell below expectations due to higher SG&A expenses and weaker sales, with analysts seeing downside risk to full-year estimates.
CPAXT expects 2026 revenue growth of 2-6%, with 3 wholesale branches opening in second half
CPAXT expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow in the low-to-mid single digits, after first-half total revenue reached 268.33 billion baht, up 3.6% from the same period last year. Second-quarter 2026 total revenue was 132.28 billion baht, up 2.5%. The company aims to keep this year's sales growth within a range of no more than 2-6% amid challenges from the global economy and inflation, while maintaining gross profit margin from sales at around 14% and keeping net debt to equity below 0.4 times. In the second half, the company plans to open 3 new wholesale branches, comprising 2 in Thailand and 1 in the Philippines. Its retail business will open 12 more branches, consisting of 2 large format stores, 2 supermarkets, 5 Go Fresh stores, and 3 in Malaysia. In the first half, no wholesale branches were opened, but 127 retail branches were already opened. For the Mall Program, 14 more branches will open in the second half, bringing the full-year total to 20 branches, which will increase total net leasable area by about 9% from 1,185 square meters at the end of 2025.
CPAXT maintains 2026 sales growth target in low-to-mid single digits
CPAXT maintains its 2026 sales growth target in the low-to-mid single digits, supported by its Omni Channel strategy which aims for a 25 percent share of total sales. The company also plans to keep gross profit margin close to the previous year's level and control net gearing at no more than 0.4 times. In the second half, it will continue opening new branches, including three wholesale and twelve retail outlets, bringing total new store openings for the year to 142 branches and increasing net selling space by about 3 percent from the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the Mall Program will add 14 branches, raising total net leasable area by approximately 9 percent from the end of 2025.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive Company maintains sales growth target and expands store network, indicating sustained demand for its retail and wholesale offerings.
Thailand
