Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited

Chaiwat Kovavisarach, Chief Executive Officer and President of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that he sold 600,000 ordinary shares of the company at an average price of 55.50 baht on September 25, 2026, through the Stock Exchange of Thailand via Auto Matching, with Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited acting as the broker for the transaction. Following this sale, Chaiwat still holds 2,500,000 BCP shares. The share sale came after reports that Chaiwat will step down from his position as BCP CEO by the end of this year.

Asia Plus Securities reported that the Oil Fund's position as of 20 September 2026 showed a deficit of 92.3 billion baht, split into a 52.3 billion baht deficit in the oil account and a 40 billion baht deficit in the LPG account. The fund carries an average payout burden of about 700 million baht per day, meaning it is likely to exceed a 100 billion baht deficit by the end of September. The existing 20 billion baht loan facility has already been fully drawn. The government has three main approaches to managing the burden: seeking an allocation from the 400 billion baht under the emergency decree, and if that is insufficient, possibly borrowing an additional 100 billion baht with a possible request for a Ministry of Finance guarantee; gradually reducing subsidies or ending the diesel price freeze; and using targeted relief measures. The government is also applying a measure to cut refinery prices for B0, B7 and B20 diesel by 4 baht per litre from 16 September to 31 October 2026, alongside the fund. The research team views each option as having different impacts. The liquidity top-up approach would have a limited effect on operators and help reduce volume-sales risk for OR and PTG, while the subsidy-reduction approach would pressure purchasing power and oil consumption volumes. The burden-shifting approach would raise risks to marketing margins and profits for the refinery group, namely TOP, BCP, IRPC, SPRC and PTTGC, and would also pressure the per-litre gross margins of OR and PTG.

Today's stocks to watch span several key developments. Bangchak, or BCP, is changing its top leadership for the first time in 12 years, after the board unanimously resolved to appoint Bundit Hansapaiboon as the new CEO, succeeding Chaiwat Kovavisarach, whose term has ended, effective January 1, 2027, after more than a decade at the helm. The stock fell nearly 3% on concerns over the leadership change. Meanwhile, BCPG clarified the case in which the Department of Special Investigation requested information on its investment in the Phetchaburi oil depot and jetty project, confirming it is ready to cooperate fully and that there has been no conclusion or ruling from the relevant agencies. Central announced a new investment plan in Vietnam totaling 3.5 billion US dollars, covering retail, real estate, and hotels, split into 1.5 billion dollars for CRC to expand roughly 50 stores over three to five years, and another 2 billion dollars for CPN, after seeing substantial room for economic and purchasing-power growth. EGCO is pushing into the United States, acquiring a large 615-megawatt natural gas power plant in central New York under a tolling agreement that locks in long-term cash flow and captures electricity demand from AI and data centers. SPALI declared that Thai real estate has passed its bottom, and it will launch 19 new projects worth a combined 22.66 billion baht in the second half, with brokers saying profits have reached a turning point, raising this year's profit forecast by 10%, highlighting a 7.7% dividend yield, and setting a buy rating with a 21 baht target price.

Ms. Thitipat Chotdechachainan, secretary to the Minister of Energy, disclosed that the leak point in the oil transport pipeline on Chuea Phet Road, Rama 3, has been located. It lies beneath a pipe sleeve about 1.8 metres long that is so tightly attached to the pipe it cannot be slid off, so the sleeve must be peeled away sheet by sheet to inspect the pipe's condition in detail. Results of testing with a UT Scan, or Ultrasonic Testing, yesterday evening indicated that the seepage point is about 1.2 metres in from the end of the sleeve, and a gash roughly 6.6 centimetres long and about 7 millimetres deep was found on the pipe. The Department of Energy Business has instructed Bangchak Corporation to bring in a qualified third party to help with the inspection. The engineering team will speed up repairing the gash using the wrap method, then re-check with UT Scan and other tools at least twice before entering the pressure test process. After that, an intelligent pigging test will be run to inspect the entire roughly 32-kilometre length of the pipeline in order to assess pipe thickness and search for additional leak-risk points. If risk points are found, the company must prepare a pipe replacement plan, including for the currently damaged point. Meanwhile, the Department of Energy Business has ordered the company to submit the pipeline's maintenance history and data on all locations where pipe sleeves were installed, especially all pipeline sections at the bridge piers, which must be surveyed and re-planned to align with current site conditions.

The Thai stock market swung lower and fell below the 1,600-point level during September 14-18, 2026, with DELTA the main stock weighing on the index after its parent company issued a $1.5 billion convertible bond exchangeable into DELTA shares. The conversion price was set at a premium of 15-20% for a one-year tenor, equivalent to 289-302 baht, and 30-40% for a five-year tenor, equivalent to 327-353 baht. As a result, bondholders short-sold the shares to reduce price risk. The bond was split into a one-year tranche worth $500 million and a five-year tranche worth $1.0 billion, issued by Delta of Taiwan to fund business expansion. Meanwhile, the Fed meeting raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, as the market expected, and the Dot Plot projected rates at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027. Tourism-related stocks AOT, MINT and CENTEL were pressured by the delay of the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure from late 2026 to 2027. Oil and refinery stocks TOP, SPRC and BCP were pressured by an announcement in the Royal Gazette cutting the ex-refinery price for high-speed diesel by 4.00 baht per litre, from a previous reduction of 2.40 baht per litre. Banking stocks KBANK, KTB and BBL, along with insurers BLA and TLI, rose on expectations that interest rates are on an upward trend.

BFPL, or Bangkok Fuel Pipeline Transportation and Logistics Co., Ltd., a company in the Bangchak Corporation group, and BPT, or BAFS Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services, have reported progress in their investigation into the case of oil contamination along Cheuapleung Road beneath the Rama III elevated bridge. On 16 September 2026, they opened up the ground for further inspection, as oil may have been seeping from the oil pipeline route in that area. Both companies have secured the area and are accelerating a detailed investigation to confirm the point of origin and the true cause. Once the cause is confirmed, they will expedite the preparation of a repair plan to submit to the Department of Energy Business and carry it out as quickly as possible, while managing oil transport through other channels so that deliveries can continue without interruption. Earlier, the inspection reported on 12 September 2026 found no abnormalities in the pipeline within the area examined, but because the source of the contamination still could not be identified, the inspection area was expanded to the surrounding vicinity, where slight traces of oil were found nearby. A connection to the incident cannot yet be concluded. After repairs, both companies will inspect conditions inside the pipeline system along its entire length of approximately 32 kilometres using Intelligent Pig equipment to ensure there are no other abnormalities. The oil pipeline system is an asset held under the operating licence of BPT, while BFPL has been granted the right to use and manage the pipeline system and has been the pipeline system operator since 1 January 2022. BPT and BFPL have arranged insurance policies covering both third-party liability and property damage and business interruption, and have also communicated with and provided assistance to members of the public, communities, and operators affected by this incident.

Ms. Thitipat Chotdechachainun, Secretary to the Minister of Energy, disclosed that officials detected a spot where oil was seeping from an oil transport pipeline in the Rama 3 area, after excavation revealed an underground cavity and oil mixed in the old drainage system. The pipeline system's operating licence is held by BAFS Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd., or BPT, while Bangkok Fuel Pipeline Transportation and Logistics Co., Ltd., or BFPL, part of the Bangchak group of companies, is the pipeline system operator. Both companies must take responsibility for all damage incurred and must act in accordance with the orders of the Department of Energy Business. The Department of Energy Business has set out a three-part action plan: expediting the search for and repair of the damaged points, with the pipeline owner required to submit maintenance and repair history records for inspection; conducting a Pigging Test along the entire pipeline route of approximately 32 kilometres, under which any leakage or abnormality found requires operations to stop immediately; and preparing a plan to replace the pipeline and adjust the route in areas where defects or flaws are found, especially where the pipeline runs beneath bridge piers or high-risk structures, in order to prevent the problem from recurring in the future.

The Energy Policy Administration Committee resolved to revoke its September 9, 2026 announcement that cut the refinery-gate diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre, and to raise that discount for diesel to 4.00 baht per litre from September 16, 2026 to October 31, 2026. As a result, Dao Securities holds a negative view on the refinery group given heightened policy risk, believing the impact on earnings and cash flow, from largest to smallest, falls on BCP, TOP, PTTGC, IRPC and SPRC. It maintained an equal-weight stance on the energy sector and advised avoiding refinery stocks for now, with a hold rating on TOP and a target of 70.00 baht, a hold on SPRC with a target of 12.00 baht, and a buy on BCP with a target of 50.00 baht. It also continues to favour PTTEP with a buy rating and a target of 180.00 baht, on the back of average selling prices for oil trending higher again in the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities views the refinery group as slightly negative after the government sought a larger-than-expected diesel price discount from refineries. If the government keeps requesting a 4 baht per litre diesel discount through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would see downside of about 6% for TOP, 8% for SPRC and 7% for BCP, while target prices would be affected by about 1.4% for TOP, 2.2% for SPRC and 2.8% for BCP respectively. It nonetheless remains bullish on the refinery group on expectations of tight supply, picking TOP as its top pick, and expects the CFP project to begin commercial operation in the third quarter of 2028 as a factor supporting long-term growth potential.

Krungsri Securities maintains a BULLISH view on the refinery sector, expecting that over the long term in 2026-2028 the group will stand out on tightening supply trends and limited new capacity coming online, keeping refining margins above the 10-year average. Although spreads will normalize, they can still generate strong cash flow and sustain high dividend payouts. It selects TOP as its top pick on growth prospects and stronger long-term competitiveness than peers after the CFP project starts commercial operation in the third quarter of 2028, with a buy recommendation and a target price of 83 baht. In the case that the Oil Fuel Fund Committee resolves to cut the ex-refinery price of diesel by 4 baht per liter from 16 September to 31 October 2026 to ease the cost of living during the Middle East conflict, the research team views this as slightly negative for the refinery group, implying downside of about 3-4% to group earnings forecasts and trimming 2027 target prices by roughly 0.6-1.2%. If the government extends the 4 baht per liter discount through the end of 2026, earnings forecasts would see downside of about 6% for TOP, about 8% for SPRC and about 7% for BCP, with target prices affected by about 1.4% for TOP, about 2.2% for SPRC and about 2.8% for BCP respectively. However, the research team believes that if product spreads begin to narrow after October 2026, the government is likely to reduce the diesel price discount over the remainder of the year, noting that state intervention will gradually ease in line with product spreads as oil prices return to normal levels, allowing the refinery group to keep generating strong cash flow and paying high dividends. If share prices in the sector decline, it sees that as a buying opportunity.

The Energy Policy Administration Committee, or EPAC, has issued a notice reducing the ex-refinery price for high-speed diesel, including B0, B7 and B20, by the same rate of 2.40 baht per litre, effective from 16 September to 31 October 2027, according to Asia Plus Securities. This announcement exercises powers under the Emergency Decree on the Prevention and Resolution of Fuel Shortages, B.E. 2516, to draw excess benefits from refining margins to lower costs at the refinery gate. It marks the seventh time the government has pulled profit margins from refinery operators to help ease the cost of living, and it extends the price intervention until the end of October 2027, from the previous round that was due to expire on 15 September 2027. The new round covers 46 days, split into 15 days affecting the third quarter of 2027 and 31 days in the fourth quarter of 2027. It is expected to affect the profits of refinery operators in proportion to their diesel production. PTTGC is estimated to be hit hardest at about 2.9 billion baht, BCP at about 2.19 billion baht, TOP at about 2.15 billion baht, IRPC at about 1.87 billion baht, and SPRC at about 994 million baht. Looking at the impact in the third quarter of 2027 alone, the pressure on refinery profits is heavier than in the second quarter of 2027. PTTGC is expected to take a total hit of about 5.0 billion baht, of which about 960 million baht comes from the latest measure. Next are BCP and TOP at about 3.7 billion baht and 3.6 billion baht respectively, with about 714 million and 608 million baht respectively from the latest round. IRPC is expected to take a total hit of about 3.2 billion baht, with 714 million baht from the latest round, while SPRC is expected to take a total hit of about 1.7 billion baht, with 324 million baht from the latest round. In the fourth quarter of 2027, between 1 and 31 October, PTTGC is expected to be affected by about 2.0 billion baht, BCP by about 1.48 billion baht, TOP by about 1.45 billion baht, IRPC by about 1.26 billion baht, and SPRC by about 670 million baht. This issue is seen as negative sentiment weighing on the refinery sector due to government intervention, along with high uncertainty over both the timeframe and the size of the refining margin cut, which could change in the period ahead. Meanwhile, the Singapore refining margin, which is referenced to TOP, has fallen to 16.9 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2027 to date, from 21.3 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2027. The research team recommends only seeking short-term trading opportunities based on fund flows into the energy sector, and to do so with caution.

The Social Security Office reported to the SEC via Form 246-2 that on September 7, 2026, it sold 3 million shares of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, representing 0.2050% of the company. The transactions were carried out through Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, CGS International Securities (Thailand) Company Limited, and TTB Wealth Securities Public Company Limited. As a result, the Social Security Office now holds 145,414,497 BCP shares, or 9.9396%, down from 148,414,497 shares, or 10.1447%. The pre-transaction holding listed in the SET shareholder register stands at 200,914,497 shares, or 13.64%, which does not match the figure reported in the SEC's Form 246-2. Although the Social Security Office did not disclose the selling price, had the shares been sold at that day's closing price of 59.75 baht, the proceeds would have been about 175.25 million baht. It also received a dividend that BCP paid at 3.00 baht per share, since the sale took place on the same day the stock went ex-dividend, with actual payment scheduled for September 17, 2026. The sale came as refinery stocks were in an uptrend, driven by high refining margins and intensifying conflict in the Middle East that pushed crude oil prices back above 100 dollars per barrel. Over the past three months, BCP shares have risen more than 73%, outpacing the refinery sector's gain of just 12.28%.

Asia Plus Securities stated that the SET Index's overall picture is just waiting for a continued rebound after holding above the 1580-point base, which is the second-level Buy Zone of 1575-1585 points. The next resistance is at 1615 points; breaking through it would open strong upside. For S50U26, it recommends Long at 1060 points, waiting for a bounce to take profits at 1080-1100 points, or averaging Long at 1045-1050 points with a Cut below 1040 points. First point: G20 opens the way to rescue the global economy, despite the US threatening additional sanctions on Iran, which could impact oil and financial markets. In the short term, it gives positive weight to upstream energy to hedge against the risk of rising oil prices, supporting PTTEP, PTT, and BCP. Be cautious of stocks sensitive to energy costs and slowing global economy, such as IVL, PTTGC, SCC, AAV, BA, PSL, TTA, and RCL. Second point: The Cabinet approved a 400 billion baht energy fund to stimulate the economy and boost Thai energy megaprojects. It approved a decree to borrow 400 billion baht to alleviate the energy crisis and invest in energy transition projects, divided into 200 billion baht for public assistance and 200 billion baht for energy investment. Standouts: GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, CK, and WHA. Third point: The mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla is set to approve the second phase of double-track railways with 6 routes, totaling 316 billion baht, along with a 10 billion baht disaster insurance budget. Standouts: CK and STECON.