SCG Packaging Public Company Limited

SCG Packaging Public Company Limited, or SCGP, has filed a draft registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission to prepare the issuance and offering of unsubordinated, unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and 11 months, at an interest rate of 2.50% per year, with interest paid every 3 months, offered to the general public. The first subscription period runs from November 11 to 13, 2026, for general retail investors who hold bonds of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited issued under the 2/2022 series maturing in 2026, or SCGP26DA. The second period runs from November 26 to 27 and on November 30, 2026, for general retail investors as well as holders of SCGP26DA bonds. On Saturday, November 28 and Sunday, November 29, 2026, subscriptions will be open only through the online systems of certain bond underwriters. The bond underwriters are Bangkok Bank, Krungthai Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, and Siam Commercial Bank, with Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited acting as the bondholders' representative. The company's and the bonds' credit rating stands at A(tha), assigned by Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited on February 16, 2026. The company intends to use the proceeds from this bond offering to repay debt from its issuance of debt instruments.

Analysts at Daiwa Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited assess the direction of the stock market for October 2026, setting an index range of 1,500-1,630 points and expecting the market to return to focusing more on fundamentals during the mid-month earnings announcements, led by banking stocks, especially the views from the executives of large banks. External factors to watch include the BOT, Fed, and BOJ meetings, as well as the US midterm elections, with statistics indicating that Thai stocks often respond positively ahead of elections. Meanwhile, risks still stem from the Iran war situation, which has yet to find a resolution, and progress on government policies, including the Thai Helps Thai Plus Phase 2 tourism stimulus measures, the announcement of the 2027 Budget Act, the PDP2026 plan, and the momentum of a no-confidence debate motion. On investment strategy, long-term themes through AI and Data Centers remain favored, with five stocks recommended: ADVICE, BGRIM, CK, PLANB, and SCGP.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.

KGI Securities has initiated coverage of Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, with a Buy rating and a 2027 forecast target price of 305.00 baht. It views SCC's earnings as shifting away from reliance on the petrochemical cycle toward a broader recovery across its chemicals, packaging, and cement and building materials, or CBM, businesses, with chemical spreads expected to recover from their trough. Additional supporting factors include higher utilization at LSP, ROC, and MOC, the use of ethane as feedstock in the United States, and potential synergies from the PTTGC joint venture, which should help drive a recovery in sales volumes from 2027 onward. Meanwhile, SCGP and CBM will add strength and resilience to earnings, while lower CAPEX will accelerate the company's deleveraging. The bull-case target price stands at 381.00 baht on stronger spreads and benefits from lower feedstock costs, while the bear-case target price is 117.00 baht.

Kasikorn Thai Securities said in a Thai equity strategy analysis for the fourth quarter of 2026 that Thailand is entering a new upward investment cycle, driven by data center investment and the new Power Development Plan, or PDP2026. It raised its target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 index target under the assumption of market earnings per share of 105 points in 2027 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times, which is in line with the long-term average. Kasikorn Thai Securities expects electricity generating capacity serving data center demand in Thailand to rise to roughly 5 to 7 gigawatts by 2030, following the expansion of data center operators and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. For its fourth-quarter 2026 investment strategy, Kasikorn Thai Securities divided its approach into two main themes and selected five standout stocks: BBL, DELTA, BGRIM, SCGP and CPALL. The first theme covers stocks that benefit from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, while the second focuses on stocks whose earnings are likely to recover and which can pass on costs, namely SCGP and CPALL.

Kasikorn Securities estimates the SET Index will trade in a range of 1,560 to 1,620 this week, expecting the Thai stock market to recover after the Fed meeting and see a buy-on-fact rally even though the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years and signalled at least one more hike this year. Slowing oil prices help ease inflation concerns and support risk assets, but investors still need to watch Houthi attacks on oil facilities and the blockade of shipping routes, which could disrupt oil exports through the Red Sea and make oil prices volatile. The 10-year US bond yield eased slightly after testing 5%, while the Dollar Index held steady around 100, pushing the baht weaker to 33.3 per dollar and the yen lower after the Bank of Japan gave no signal of accelerating rate hikes. The key highlight this week is the discussion between Trump and Xi Jinping on September 24 on energy, AI and trade. Domestically, investors are watching the two-month extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus programme and August export figures. The strategy focuses on accumulating stocks expected to post strong profit growth, with DELTA, SCC, SCGP and BCH chosen as the week's top picks. For SCGP, the base price target is 37.30 baht after second-quarter 2026 profit of 2.3 billion baht, up 128% year on year and 47% quarter on quarter, beating expectations on Fajar's recovery and the pulp and paper business's EBITDA margin rising to 9.5%. For WHA, the base price target is 6.25 baht based on the sum-of-the-parts method. In the short term, uncertainty in Thailand's data centre business after the government set up a policy committee on the data centre business could pressure the share price, but in the longer term strong operating momentum in the second half of 2026 should draw investors back.

Kasikorn Securities, or KS, expects the Thai stock index to trade in a range of 1570-1620 points this week, anticipating a market recovery after the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the Fed raised interest rates as the market had expected. Meanwhile, inflation signals are starting to show signs of slowing, helped by crude oil prices beginning to correct after Saudi Arabia rerouted crude exports through Oman and accelerated the restoration of the East-West pipeline, easing supply concerns. At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back below 5%, supporting further speculative appetite for risk assets. In addition, the market is watching for domestic economic stimulus measures, with the Thai Chai Thai Plus program expected to be extended by another two months this week, which is positive sentiment for the domestic economy and provides further support for the cost of living. KS therefore continues to view pullbacks as opportunities to gradually accumulate stocks, selecting SCC and BGRIM as its top picks for the week. For SCC, the base price is set at 276.00 baht, supported by positive momentum from the announcement that Rayong Olefins, or ROC, will restart its olefins plant, which is expected to have a positive effect on earnings estimates going forward, along with additional support from the packaging business SCGP, which is showing more positive trends from the return of Fajar and improving selling prices, as well as ongoing M&A. SCC currently trades at a PBV of 0.8 times. For BGRIM, the base price is set at 22.00 baht after it adjusted electricity charges to link with gas prices for industrial user customers by about 50% starting in June, helping to preserve spark spread, and it plans to gradually convert customer contracts to a permanent gas-linked basis. Meanwhile, the data center business will support growth from 2027, with excess capacity of about 100MW that can serve additional demand from industrial user customers and data centers. BGRIM's own data center is expected to see Phase 1 reach commercial operation in the first quarter of 2027 and ramp up to full capacity of 48MW in the second quarter of 2027, though initially it may still record losses from low utilization.

Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said in a research note that ESG is entering an era in which it genuinely affects financial outcomes, and unveiled 10 stocks set to benefit from the ESG transition. The Stock Exchange of Thailand is preparing to move from SET ESG Ratings to the FTSE Russell ESG Scores framework, with listed companies due to learn their own scores in 2026 and public disclosure beginning in 2027. Preliminary statistics from the 2025 FTSE Russell ESG Scores assessment show that 222 Thai listed companies averaged 3.6 out of 5, placing them at a Good practice level, with the utilities, healthcare, and oil and gas sectors scoring most strongly. KS said ESG development is reaching a regulatory level that will affect profits and ROIC through a carbon pricing mechanism with a pilot price of 200 baht per tonne of carbon equivalent, a planned emissions trading system trial in 2029-2030, the EU CBAM measure, and the IFRS S1/S2 standards and Thailand Taxonomy. A study of SET100 stocks found that high ESG-rated shares do not always trade at more expensive PER or PBV multiples or post higher EPS growth, but that good ESG enhances investability through liquidity and the shareholding of foreign and institutional investors. The case of DELTA, which was removed from the SETESG index, reflects how money from ESG-linked funds affects short-term price volatility. The 10 standout stocks span five themes: renewable energy business expansion, GULF, BCPG and CKP; green industrial infrastructure, WHA and AMATA; ESG data services and carbon management, DITTO and BBIK; sustainable finance, BAY and TTB; and the circular economy, SCGP.

The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12–0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may raise once more this year. Its latest projections put the year-end 2026 rate at about 4.1%, with 2027 likely holding steady before a possible cut in 2028. Several brokers assess the meeting as negative for the Thai stock market in the short term, because US Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, which could pressure foreign capital flows and share prices, especially growth stocks and those with high P/E ratios, amid inflation still above the 2% target and oil prices holding above 100 dollars a barrel, forcing the market to cope with a prolonged period of high interest rates. Tisco Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,570–1,660 points, with support at 1,570–1,580 points and resistance at 1,630 and 1,660 points, and highlights the energy and commodities group such as PTTEP, PTT, SPRC, TOP, IVL, PTTGC, CPF, TFG, GFPT, TVO, SCGP and SCCC; the banking and insurance group such as KBANK, KTB, TTB, BLA and TLI; and the AI, infrastructure and power group such as HANA, AMATA, WHA, GULF, EGCO, ADVANC, TRUE and STECON. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities favors domestic and defensive plays with clear revenue and cash flow, especially BDMS and BCH, and warns that expensive, rate-sensitive stocks such as DELTA could come under pressure if the Fed signals more sustained rate hikes than the market expects.

SCG Packaging, or SCGP, has closed a deal to acquire a 90% stake in Jinjongfa Paper Industry Co., Ltd., or JZF, a paper packaging producer in Chonburi province, for 68 million baht. The investment will add 28,000 tonnes per year of production capacity, expand its customer base among Chinese customers and the fruit export market, improve cost and logistics management efficiency, and capture growth opportunities in the packaging business in the eastern region. SCGP will begin recognizing JZF's operating results in its consolidated financial statements from October 2026 onward. Wichan Jitpukdee, Chief Executive Officer of SCGP, said JZF is a corrugated paper box packaging producer that emphasizes efficient cost management, has a core customer base of operators in the fruit export market to China, and has a factory in Chonburi province, a strategic location close to customers in the eastern region. In 2025, JZF had revenue of 205 million baht, total assets of 240 million baht, and production capacity of 28,000 tonnes per year. The investment aligns with SCGP's strategic plan to expand its consumer goods packaging business in the ASEAN region, while creating synergies in operations, cost and trade management, and the sale of other related products and services. It also helps distribute existing fruit packaging orders to JZF to increase margins across the business group through cost management and reduced logistics expenses.

SCGP shares, or SCG Packaging Public Company Limited, continued to rise by 1.71% to 29.75 baht, after Tisco Securities Company Limited maintained its "Buy" recommendation and increased the fair value to 40 baht per share from 36 baht, based on an EV/EBITDA ratio of 10.8 times for 2027, in line with the company's historical average. The research department raised its profit forecasts for 2026-2028 by 9.3%, 9.1%, and 9.6%, respectively, after adjusting assumptions for packaging paper prices and profit margins. Despite concerns over rising imported recycled paper costs (RCP) and declining short-fiber pulp prices, the research department believes SCGP can still manage, as packaging paper prices continue to rise. The regional benchmark price in the third quarter of 2026 increased by 1.2% from the previous quarter, following a 5% increase in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, domestic recycled paper prices, which account for 60-65% of raw material costs, fell by 10% in Thailand, significantly offsetting cost pressures. The pulp business is less concerning, as SCGP has adjusted its production mix to increase dissolving pulp, whose prices remain strong, and China's new capacity of 2.2 million tons per year is mostly integrated production, not all entering the market directly. While the stock price has risen 15% in three months, compared to the SET's decline of 0.7%, it still trades at an EV/EBITDA of around 7.7 times for 2027, below its historical average, and the research department's 2026 profit forecast is 8% higher than the market's.

Kasikorn Securities expects the SET Index to move within a range of 1,570-1,600 points today, with a tendency to consolidate, pressured by the hawkish tone of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. This has led the market to increase the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 58.3% from 35.8%, putting pressure on risk assets. The broker recommends waiting for dips to accumulate stocks with strong earnings, with top picks today being SCGP and RATCH. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy plans to increase the quota for purchasing electricity from residential rooftop solar from 100 megawatts to 500 megawatts, and the Excise Department is considering adjusting the import tax on EVs from 10% to 30-40%.

Several Thai listed companies announced business updates at the same time. GULF disclosed that three joint ventures signed project loan agreements totaling no more than 8.6 billion baht with a 22-year tenor to develop three wind power projects with combined capacity of 208 megawatts. Commercial operation dates are expected to be phased in during 2027, with 25-year power purchase agreements with EGAT. Meanwhile, SCGP is spending 9.846 billion baht through Siam Kraft Industry Company Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary, to expand gypsum board paper production capacity in Kanchanaburi province by another 400,000 tonnes per year, with commercial operations expected in the fourth quarter of 2028. MPJ reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 51.1 million baht, up 69.2 percent, and first-half profit of 74.8 million baht, up 25.1 percent, while maintaining this year's revenue target of 1.264 billion baht, growth of 18 percent, and preparing capital spending of more than 1.14 billion baht over the next two to three years, including expanding its Laem Chabang container yard by another 28 rai, with service expected to begin in the second quarter of 2027. SUPER signed a long-term credit facility with the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam worth 8.3 trillion dong, or about 1.065 billion baht, to support phase one of the Soc Trang Wind Power Plant with capacity of 30 megawatts. The loan has a 15-year tenor. WICE unveiled its second-half 2026 strategy, moving forward with expanding its customer network and regional trade routes, while also entering the US market and expanding its service area to 158,020 square metres.

SCG Packaging Public Company Limited, or SCGP, has announced an investment of 9.846 billion baht to expand production capacity for gypsum board paper by an additional 400,000 tonnes per year. Commercial operations are expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2028, supporting a regional market of around 1.5 million tonnes per year that is growing 4 to 5 percent annually. Asia Plus Securities' research team views this investment as an upgrade of the business portfolio toward a niche market with limited players and high barriers to entry, due to the need for specialised production technology and a core customer base of global multinational companies such as Saint-Gobain. Currently, SCGP has gypsum board paper production capacity of only 75,000 tonnes per year and is already running at nearly full utilisation. This capacity expansion is therefore a significant business move in terms of scale, maintaining a high proportion of value-added products, and expanding export markets, which should support revenue and margins over the medium to long term. The research team maintains a buy recommendation with a discounted cash flow based target price of 36.00 baht per share.

Bualuang Securities and Krungsri Securities expect third-quarter 2026 net profit of listed companies to expand from the same period last year. KCE is projected to see printed circuit board delivery volumes rise, with average selling prices up 9 to 10 percent, lifting PCB revenue by 17 to 19 percent. CBG expects domestic energy drink sales to grow 10 percent and sales in Myanmar to jump 70 percent. ITC forecasts July to August sales up 10 percent from a year earlier and 7 percent from the previous quarter. In the hospital group, BH and BDMS expect July revenue to return to growth on Thai and Middle Eastern patients. The tourism and airport group, AOT and CENTEL, continues to show solid momentum, with July revenue per available room up 26 percent for AWC, 8 percent for CENTEL, 5 percent for ERW, and 4 percent for MINT. GPSC is supported by a full quarter of profit recognition from the GHECO-One and Glow IPP power plants. Krungsri Securities assesses that the electronic components group, led by KCE and HANA, is growing strongly both year on year and quarter on quarter. SCGP is expected to see profit recover on higher selling prices, strong sales volumes, and benefits from supply chain disruptions.

A survey of second-quarter 2026 earnings among companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand found that 71 firms recorded net profit growth of more than 100% compared with the same period last year. TMT Steel Public Company Limited, or TMT, led the pack with net profit of 299.87 million baht, up 910.23% from 29.68 million baht. Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited, or HANA, followed with net profit of 326.31 million baht, up 838.35%, and Susco Public Company Limited, or SUSCO, posted net profit of 120.59 million baht, up 797.01%. Among large-cap stocks with profit growth above 100%, True Corporation reported net profit of 6.55 billion baht, up 222.68%; Berli Jucker Public Company Limited posted net profit of 2.88 billion baht, up 191.07%; PTT reported net profit of 52.52 billion baht, up 143.93%; SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.30 billion baht, up 128.15%; and PTT Exploration and Production reported net profit of 27.20 billion baht, up 101.23%.

Five Thai listed companies with market capitalizations above 40 billion baht reported second-quarter 2026 net profit growth of more than 50 percent compared with the same period last year. PTTEP posted net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101 percent. True Corporation posted net profit of 6.554 billion baht, up 222 percent. SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.304 billion baht, up 128 percent. Central Plaza Hotel posted net profit of 166 million baht, up 51 percent. Siam Global House posted net profit of 955.48 million baht, up 83 percent.

SCG Packaging reported an EBITDA margin of 17% for the first half of 2026, exceeding its target of 14%. Net profit surged 103% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in Indonesia and Vietnam, with the Indonesian unit Fajar turning profitable in the second quarter. The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.93 times and debt-to-EBITDA fell to 2.6 times, while an interim dividend of THB0.4 per share was approved. Revenue from sales declined 3% year-on-year due to softer volumes, and the fiber business EBITDA dropped 23% amid lower selling prices and Thai baht appreciation. The company is strategically reducing exports to China, which fell to 2% of revenue, and is expanding capacity in Vietnam with a new fully automated box plant.

Bualuang Securities revealed that net profits for the second quarter of 2069 for stocks under its coverage came in 5.6% above market expectations, with 48% of stocks beating estimates compared to a five-year average of 37%. Standout performers were led by SCC, up 41% from its petrochemical business, SCGP up 20% from packaging and recycling, KKP up 18% from non-interest income, and TU up 10.9% from seafood demand. Meanwhile, DELTA missed profit forecasts by 31% due to supply chain issues. The research team also noted positive signals from IT retail sales at COM7 and ADVICE, which grew 10% and 17% year-on-year in July. In the lifestyle segment, MOSHI saw same-store sales rise 9% on the squishy toy trend. Tourism continued to recover, with foreign arrivals in July reaching 2.5 million, and ERW's revenue per available room expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month. Export demand for food and pet food remained strong, with TU projecting 5-6% growth and ITC projecting 10% growth. The investment strategy therefore focuses on COM7, ADVICE, MOSHI, CPALL, ERW, TU, and ITC.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Bualuang Securities reported that aggregate net profit of listed companies that have already reported, covering 32% of stocks under its coverage, came in 5.6% above market expectations and 7.2% above Bualuang's own estimates. Of the stocks that have reported, 48% delivered better-than-expected earnings, exceeding the five-year average of 37%. Notable outperformers included SCC, with profit 41% above expectations, SCGP 20% above, KKP 18% above, and TU 10.9% above. Meanwhile, DELTA reported earnings 31% below expectations due to supply chain issues. Key signals from the earnings season show that cyclical sector profits remain strong but momentum may slow, consumption is recovering selectively with IT and affordable lifestyle products growing well, tourism continues to recover, asset quality in the hire-purchase sector is stable, and demand for food and pet food exports remains robust.

SCGP shares closed the morning session at 31.75 baht, up 4.10 percent, hitting a 52-week high. The gains were driven by a second-quarter net profit of 2.30 billion baht, a 128.1 percent increase from a year earlier, thanks to recovering packaging demand, selling price adjustments, and effective cost management. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.40 baht per share, with the XD date on 4 August 2026, the record date on 5 August, and payment on 19 August 2026. Despite the XD date, the share price still rose, reflecting strong buying interest and investor confidence in the second-half outlook, supported by the high season for manufacturing and exports, merger and partnership strategies, and stable raw material and energy costs.

SCG Packaging, or SCGP, has joined forces with Rockworth, a leading office furniture creator, to advance environmental solutions. This covers packaging design for furniture products, development of furniture from paper-based materials, and solutions for events and exhibitions. The focus is on using cost-effective and recyclable materials, reducing transport weight, and lowering carbon emissions. Examples of their joint work include using Light Weight Sheet Board paper to redesign boxes for chairs and export goods, as well as developing paper furniture like the Stool HEX for flexible learning spaces. The partnership also plans to expand into temporary structure solutions for events that are easy to move and install, supporting an environmentally conscious brand image and contributing to the Net Zero 2050 goal.

SCG reported first-half 2025 results with Adjusted Cash EBITDA of 42.913 billion baht, up 35% from the same period last year, and announced an interim dividend of 3.5 baht per share, totaling 4.2 billion baht. Revenue from sales was 259.57 billion baht and profit for the period was 17.758 billion baht. Excluding special items, mainly inventory revaluation, profit for the period was 12.649 billion baht. At the end of the second quarter, SCG had cash on hand of 76.775 billion baht and reduced net debt by 39.176 billion baht from the previous quarter, bringing the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio down to 3.7 times from 5.0 times in the prior quarter. The growth was driven by an accelerated push into high-value products across all business units, including Chemicals, Cement and Construction Materials, SCG Decor, and SCGP, as well as organizational restructuring to cut costs and boost efficiency.

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited, or SCC, reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of approximately 11.5 billion baht, up 85 percent from the previous quarter and 41 to 48 percent above market expectations. The result was driven by a recovery in the petrochemical business SCGC, where product price spreads widened, higher sales volumes at packaging business SCGP, and improved selling prices in the cement and building materials segment, along with dividend income and share of profit from associates totaling more than 5.994 billion baht. However, most brokers warn that the third quarter of 2026 will slow down, due to the absence of seasonal extra income, a sharp contraction in petrochemical spreads starting in July, and plant maintenance shutdowns that will pressure sales volumes, while the domestic property market has yet to recover. Most brokers maintain a buy recommendation, with target prices ranging from 290 to 332 baht.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, has unveiled an investment strategy to cope with volatility from the Middle East conflict, the trade war, and the technology war, recommending two main themes. The first theme consists of stocks expected to deliver profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, including IVL, PTTGC, BCP, TRUE, SCGP, DOHOME, PTTEP, ADVICE, SC, ADVANC, PTT, and MASTER. The second theme covers stocks with growing profits but lagging share prices, namely BCPG, AMATA, DELTA, and CRC. At the same time, ASPS has designated DELTA, BDMS, and CPALL as standout picks due to their safety from wartime conditions and lack of negative impact. The firm also recommends investing in foreign securities depositary receipts such as MICRON01 to capture strong earnings momentum from memory chip demand, and OIL03 to benefit from the US-Iran conflict boosting oil prices. Another noteworthy point is that since April 2026, the earnings per share estimate for the Thai stock market has been revised up by 3.8 percent, the second highest in the world, trailing only the Dow Jones index and bucking the trend of downward revisions in regional markets.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities say the SET Index has risen over 31.2% from the start of the year to date, supported by foreign fund flows into electronics on the AI theme and better-than-expected domestic fundamentals. But at 1,650 points, the market is starting to face tight valuation constraints, especially for the large-cap stocks that have led the rally, where foreign ownership has exceeded the five-year average. They therefore expect a rotation of funds into laggard stocks where foreign ownership and valuations are below average, while earnings are still growing well. The short-term strategy recommends switching into laggard stocks via two themes. The first is Earnings Play, focusing on stocks with strong expected second-quarter 2026 earnings growth and a robust second half, such as ADVANC, CPN, GULF, PR9, SCGP, and TIDLOR. The second is Foreign Underowned Play, focusing on SET50 stocks where foreign ownership is below the five-year average and earnings momentum is good, such as BEM, CPALL, HMPRO, MTC, OR, TRUE, and TU.

SCG Packaging, or SCGP, reported a second-quarter 2026 core profit of 2.335 billion baht, up 51 percent from the previous quarter and 135 percent from a year earlier, exceeding analyst and market forecasts by about 17 and 22 percent respectively. The key driver was the packaging business in Indonesia under Fajar, which swung to a profit for the first time in four years after raising selling prices closer to market levels, along with higher sales volume in the Packaging Paper segment reaching 1.04 million tonnes. Yuanta Securities' research team raised its 2026 core profit forecast by 16 percent to 6.76 billion baht and lifted its end-2026 fair value to 35.00 baht per share, upgrading its recommendation from Trading to Buy, citing continued profit growth momentum for the rest of the year.

SCGP shares climbed more than 4% after reporting second-quarter 2026 net profit of 2.3 billion baht, up 128% from a year earlier and 20% above market expectations. The gains were driven by improved gross margins and a recovery at subsidiary Fajar, which returned to a net profit for the first time since the third quarter of 2022, at 107 billion Indonesian rupiah. The core integrated packaging business posted EBITDA of 5.2 billion baht, a 36% increase year-on-year, while total sales volume reached 1.51 million tonnes, up 5% from a year ago. DAO Securities raised its 2026 net profit forecast by 8% to 6.4 billion baht, maintained a buy rating, and lifted its target price to 35 baht. SCGP also declared an interim dividend of 0.40 baht per share, with the XD date set for 4 August 2026.

Krungsri Securities assesses the earnings direction of listed companies in the second quarter of 2026 as positive and likely to come in better than market expectations, supported by the banking sector's performance which was mostly in line to better than expected. Only BBL reported profit below market expectations but still in line with its own assessment. A key positive factor for the banking group is fee income from wealth management business, which is growing and becoming a new S-curve for the business. Meanwhile, asset quality remains manageable despite the impact of the war situation, with only SCB still vulnerable due to non-performing loan formation and BBL seeing mainly migration of existing debtors. Most banks' loans returned to expansion compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the positive effect of the investment cycle, with KBANK and KTB showing outstanding loan growth, while SCB remains the only bank with contracting loans. On the real sector side, stocks are starting to show positive signals, with SCGP reporting profit 21 percent above market expectations due to tight supply conditions in the Middle East, and PTTGC reporting profit above expectations from greater-than-expected supply disruption, similar to IVL and SCC. The research team views the decline in banking stocks after earnings announcements due to profit-taking as an opportunity to gradually accumulate, as fee income from wealth management is growing as a new support factor, asset quality has passed the peak risk point, and the impact from net interest margin has been largely priced in. Recommended top picks in the banking group are KBANK and KKP from wealth management growth, and KTB from strong asset quality. The team also unveils a list of standout stocks for the earnings season, expecting second-quarter 2026 results to be strong or to have passed the trough, including ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

SCGP expects its third-quarter 2026 performance to improve significantly from a year earlier, driven by continued expansion in both domestic and international demand and selling price increases to reflect higher costs. Currently, domestic revenue accounts for 87% and exports 13%. Meanwhile, demand in Vietnam has grown so strongly that capacity utilization has hit 100%, forcing the company to shift products from Indonesia to meet demand. The company is confident that full-year 2026 EBITDA will meet the target of 18.3 billion baht, up from 17.2 billion baht a year earlier, after achieving 10.4 billion baht in the first half, or more than 56% of the target. It also plans to spend another 7.61 billion baht in capital expenditure for the remainder of the year, with over 5 billion baht allocated for mergers and acquisitions and partnerships in the paper packaging and polymer segments in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. The rest will be used to expand production capacity, such as a plant in Vietnam that is set to add 26,800 tonnes per year of corrugated box capacity with a budget of 748 million baht, with production expected to start in September 2027. Finansia Syrus Securities recommends buying SCGP with a target price of 35 baht, after second-quarter profit surged 128%, and has raised its 2026–2027 profit forecast by 22%. Meanwhile, Trinity Securities estimates that SCC will report second-quarter net profit today of 8.2 billion baht, down 53% from a year earlier but up 32% from the previous quarter, with the chemicals business supported by improved PE/PP and PVC spreads.

Kasikorn Securities has assessed the second-quarter 2026 earnings of companies under Siam Cement Group. It expects SCC to report a net profit of approximately 7.8 billion baht, up 26 percent from the previous quarter, driven by recovering petrochemical spreads. SCGP is forecast to post a net profit of around 2 billion baht, a 100 percent increase from a year earlier, after Fajar swung to a profit. Meanwhile, SCGD is expected to report a net loss of 279 million baht, due to a special impairment charge of about 500 million baht and weak tile demand, with higher energy costs pressuring gross margin down to 25.7 percent. Kasikorn Securities recommends holding SCC with a target price of 263 baht, buying SCGD with a target price of 5.90 baht, and buying SCGP with a revised target price of 32.50 baht.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that global financial markets are under pressure from three key risk factors: Middle East tensions pushing Brent crude to 89 dollars per barrel, a trade war with the United States preparing to impose 50 percent import tariffs on certain Canadian goods, and a technology war after Chinese startup MOONSHOT AI launched its KIMI K3 model, which delivers performance close to top US models but at lower cost. This has triggered capital outflows from high-growth and AI sectors into oil, value, and high-dividend plays. The Thai stock market has become a safe-haven destination, attracting net foreign inflows of over 44 billion baht since the start of July, concentrated in communications, energy, and banking stocks such as TRUE, PTTEP, KBANK, TOP, BBL, and GULF. Asia Plus also warns that Thailand may post a trade deficit of around 4 billion dollars in June, as imports surged 35.8 percent year on year while exports grew only 15.2 percent year on year, lagging neighbors like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and China. On investment strategy, Asia Plus recommends top picks SCGP, PTTEP, and TIDLOR, while keeping an eye on eight Chinese depositary receipts: TENCENT80, BABA80, MEITUAN80, NETEASE80, XPENG03, GEELY80, KUAISH23, and XIAOMI80, as well as second-quarter earnings reports from US big tech led by TESLA and ALPHABET.