Lam Research Corp

BofA semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya raised his estimate for the AI data center systems addressable market to $2.2 trillion at a 40% annual pace for CY26-30, up from a prior $1.8 trillion at 33%. Arya said the virtuous flywheel of agentic tool adoption by consumers and enterprises, competition between public and private AI labs, and limited chip supply will likely keep AI spending robust for the next several years, adding that any pacing or addition of safety guardrails to frontier models is likely to increase rather than reduce compute requirements. He named Nvidia, Intel, Micron, Marvell and Lam Research as top picks with near-term catalysts, citing enhanced buybacks and multiple GTC tradeshow events for Nvidia, agentic CPU strength and foundry win anticipation for Intel, the start of buybacks from December 9 for Micron, an Analyst Day on October 6 and an XPU ramp for Marvell, and share gain potential across memory and logic for Lam Research. Arya said he also continues to like AMD, Applied Materials, Analog Devices and On Semiconductor, and is staying watchful on Broadcom, which he rates Buy on compelling valuation with potential for enhanced buybacks when the company reports fiscal fourth-quarter results in December. He noted that the SOX is trading at a 21x forward PE, 12% below its 24x median multiple since the onset of ChatGPT and well below 40%-plus projected EPS growth potential, and that the fourth and first calendar quarters have historically been the two best seasonal quarters to own chip stocks, with 300-500 basis points of median outperformance versus the S&P 500 from 2010 to 2025.

Lam Research drew fresh attention after management lifted its 2026 wafer fab equipment outlook to the low US$150b range while also flagging a sharp expected rise in advanced packaging revenue. The stock has risen 14.1% over the past week but is down about 19% across the last three months, even as its year-to-date share price return sits near 66% and its 1 year total shareholder return is about 141%. The current share price of $307.16 sits well below a narrative fair value of $423.85, a gap that hinges on how the AI driven memory cycle plays out. On earnings multiples the picture is tougher, with the stock trading on a 52.9x P/E, above both the peer average of 46.9x and a fair ratio of 44.6x. The narrative could break if memory makers pull back capex faster than expected or if China restrictions tighten and compress wafer fab demand.

Yuanta Securities views Lam Research Corporation, or DR LRCX19, as one of the beneficiaries of rising demand for NAND flash memory, especially as AI usage expands from model training toward broader real-world deployment. Lam Research derives a relatively large share of revenue from equipment used to produce NAND, while revenue from equipment for DRAM memory chips is also supported by growing demand for advanced chips, namely the stacking of DRAM into HBM, a technology in which Lam Research already has expertise. In the short term, improving US-China relations could also be a supporting factor for the company, since it generates a high proportion of revenue from China and had previously been restricted from selling certain types of equipment to Chinese customers. The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping could fuel short-term speculative interest. For the earnings outlook for fiscal year 2027, which ends in June 2027, the Bloomberg Consensus expects normalized profit to still grow strongly at 62% year on year, while the current price trades at a PER of 32 times for FY2027. It gives a target price of 4.80 baht per DR, implying 24% upside.

Bank of America forecasts the global semiconductor market will nearly double to $3.2 trillion by 2030 from $1.7 trillion in 2026, citing AI infrastructure, memory and data-center demand that remains far stronger than recent fears suggest. Analysts led by Vivek Arya wrote that despite rising concerns about a potential AI infrastructure and investment slowdown, they see no signs of slowing in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments or semiconductor pricing. The bank pointed to Nvidia B200 rental pricing at $5.72 per hour, up consistently over the past two months and less than 10% below its March peak of roughly $6.10, while AMD has also indicated it is not seeing weakening customer orders. Within the total, memory is expected to remain the biggest growth engine, with sales rising to $1.8 trillion by 2030 from $937 billion in 2026, core semiconductors projected to increase to $1.35 trillion from $739 billion, server-related sales jumping to $848 billion from $359 billion, and wafer-fabrication-equipment spending more than doubling to $359.8 billion from $155.9 billion. BofA sees Nvidia and AMD as resilient compute plays, Marvell in networking, and Analog Devices and onsemi in analog, while Micron, Lam Research, Applied Materials and Intel could also outperform if sector momentum improves; the key risk is whether hyperscalers eventually slow AI capital spending.

Lam Research said semiconductor equipment demand is "fundamentally sold out," with eight to 10 new clean rooms expected at its tier-one customers between now and the end of next year. Speaking during a Goldman Sachs discussion, an unnamed Lam executive said the company is prioritizing customer execution, capacity readiness and product-roadmap delivery, and is expanding manufacturing, hiring and installation resources to meet tool demand that customers want sooner than Lam can provide it. Lam's Customer Support Business Group posted its third consecutive record revenue quarter at nearly $2.5 billion, covering spare parts, services, equipment upgrades and the Reliant mature-node product line. The company reported gross margin of 52%, its highest in 20 years, and reiterated guidance of 51% to 52%, while saying differentiated products, operating closer to customers and pricing efforts could lift gross margin into the mid-50% range over several years. Lam expects DRAM wafer-fab-equipment spending to remain the largest contributor next year, followed by leading-edge foundry and logic, with NAND also growing, and it said the NAND conversion cycle should involve about $40 billion in spending through the end of next year. The executive added that major M&A is not part of Lam's ongoing strategy, though the company may pursue small tuck-in acquisitions from time to time.

Applied Materials reported quarterly revenues of $9.12 billion, up 24.8% year on year, exceeding analysts' expectations by 0.9%, as the 14 semiconductor manufacturing stocks tracked by the report delivered a very strong Q2 in which group revenues beat consensus estimates by 3.5% and next quarter's revenue guidance came in 6.5% above. President and CEO Gary Dickerson called it another record-breaking quarter with the highest sequential revenue growth in the company's history, citing significant improvement in inventory levels and next-quarter revenue guidance above analysts' expectations, though the stock is down 15.3% since reporting and trades at $453.00. Among peers, Kulicke and Soffa posted the group's fastest growth with revenues of $330.4 million, up 123% year on year and 5.7% above expectations, yet its stock is down 11.7% at $82.90, while KLA Corporation, the weakest of the group, reported revenues of $3.66 billion, up 15.2% and 1.3% above expectations, with its stock down 7.3% at $176.86. FormFactor reported revenues of $258.2 million, up 31.9% and 7.6% above expectations, with its stock up 34.7% at $112.38, and Lam Research reported revenues of $6.72 billion, up 30% year on year, meeting expectations, with its stock up 17.8% at $297.23.

JPMorgan raised its forecasts for the wafer fabrication equipment market and named KLA as its top pick among U.S. chip-equipment makers in a note to clients on Friday. Analyst Mio Shikanai lifted the bank's WFE market growth estimates to 31% for 2026, taking the market to $163 billion, 38% for 2027 at $225 billion and 17% for 2028 at $263 billion, a 28% compound annual growth rate over 2025 to 2028. Shikanai said cloud service providers are accelerating their investments in response to further growth in AI-related demand, with spending by the top four U.S. players seen growing at a 58% annual rate through 2028. DRAM memory and TSMC drove the upgrade, with the analyst expecting memory supply to lag demand even in 2028 and TSMC's leading-edge capacity to stay above 100% utilization. Shikanai said she sees the most attractive risk/reward in KLA given its relative underperformance year to date, underappreciated exposure to foundry and logic-led WFE spending in 2027, and potential for upward revisions to consensus revenue estimates, noting KLA shares are up about 50% this year but have lagged peers Lam Research and Applied Materials, up roughly 85% and 82%, respectively.

Applied Materials CEO Gary Dickerson told David Faber at Goldman's Copia Conference that the company is approaching 40% growth this year, driven entirely by AI compute demand, and he expects strong growth in 2026, 2027 and beyond, backed by rolling eight-quarter customer forecasts and longer tool-shipment commitments. The August quarter delivered revenue of $9.12 billion, up 24.8% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.50, and guidance for the October quarter calls for revenue near $10.25 billion; CFO Brice Hill said customer visibility extends in some conversations to 2030 and the company is preparing to double its quarterly system output by 2028. Dickerson said DRAM revenue grew from 22% to 26% of semiconductor systems revenue, with DRAM including HBM packaging up 52% year over year to record levels, while advanced packaging is expected to grow more than 70% in calendar 2026. Peer results corroborate the order book: Lam Research reported June-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion, up 30.0% year over year, and raised its calendar 2026 WFE view to the low $150 billion range from $140 billion; KLA posted record revenue of $3.66 billion with remaining performance obligations around $12.5 billion; and ASML plans to add 30% to its 2026 low NA EUV capacity of around 65 for 2027, with another 30% under investigation for 2028. Applied trades at a trailing P/E of 41x and forward P/E of 26x at a current price of $468.85, up 188.38% over the past year but down 10.11% over the past month and below its 52-week high of $738.88, with the 200-day moving average at $407.06.

Global wafer-fabrication-equipment spending is projected to rise 16.9% to a record $135.2 billion in 2026, up from $115.7 billion in 2025, with memory equipment growing faster than the broader market. Within that total, 300mm DRAM equipment spending is projected to rise 29% to $37 billion and 300mm 3D NAND equipment spending is expected to increase 28% to $14 billion, while logic, foundry and other equipment spending remains the largest category at approximately $84.2 billion but grows just 10.6%. The combined $51 billion of DRAM and NAND equipment spending is being driven by Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology and SK hynix simultaneously expanding investment in advanced DRAM, high-bandwidth memory, NAND, cleanrooms and advanced packaging. Lam Research, the most direct beneficiary, reported record June-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion and fiscal 2026 revenue of approximately $23.23 billion, up from $18.44 billion in fiscal 2025, and recently raised its quarterly dividend 27% from $0.26 to $0.33 per share. KLA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, up approximately 15% year over year, with fiscal 2026 revenue of $13.58 billion and GAAP net income of $4.83 billion, while ASML reported second-quarter 2026 net sales of €9.3 billion, a 54% gross margin and net income of €2.9 billion, and raised its expected 2026 net sales range to between €43 billion and €45 billion. The principal industry risk remains eventual memory overinvestment, though current investment is concentrated on advanced products, cleanrooms and process migrations.

Lam Research returned more than $5.12 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026 through share repurchases and dividends. Buybacks were the larger component at $3.85 billion, up from $3.42 billion in fiscal 2025, while dividends totaled $1.27 billion. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, revenues rose 30% year over year to $6.72 billion, non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 38.4% from 34.4%, and non-GAAP earnings per share climbed 37% to $1.82. In August 2026, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 27% to 33 cents per share from 26 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2027 projects revenues of $8.10 billion, implying 52.1% year-over-year growth.

Shares of Applied Materials, AMD, Broadcom, Lam Research, and Marvell Technology surged in afternoon trading after Qualcomm announced a multi-generational collaboration with Amazon Web Services to develop custom AI data center chips, and ASML, TSMC, and Intel revealed key advancements in next-generation chip manufacturing. Qualcomm's partnership with AWS focuses on co-designing custom AI chips for high-performance inference and data center workloads, aiming to cut operating costs and improve energy efficiency. At the SPIE Photomask conference, ASML and TSMC launched an initiative to transition from 6-inch to 12-inch photomasks, targeting a pilot line by 2031 and full production by 2033, which would reduce costs and boost output for advanced AI processors. Additionally, Intel Foundry and ASML confirmed that Intel has processed over one million wafers on its Intel 18A node using High NA EUV equipment. These developments boosted investor confidence in sub-2-nanometer chip designs and AI infrastructure, with Applied Materials up 3.4%, AMD up 6.5%, Broadcom up 3.3%, Lam Research up 4.2%, and Marvell Technology up 3.3%.

Bank of America has warned that chip stocks could fall another 10%, a decline that would push the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index back to its valuation discount versus the S&P 500 before ChatGPT's debut in November 2022. Analyst Vivek Arya cited rising interest rates, public pushback on data center projects, geopolitical tension, worries over circular financing among AI companies, and heavy investor positioning as near-term risks. Despite the caution, the bank raised its AI data center total addressable market forecast to roughly $2.2 trillion by 2030, up from $1.7 trillion in May, and named eight stocks as enhanced buying opportunities, including Nvidia, Marvell, Micron, and Lam Research. Arya also suggested Nvidia could follow Apple's post-2012 playbook by increasing cash returns to shareholders to ease concerns about its AI investments.

Guinness Global Innovators Fund highlighted KLA Corporation as a notable contributor in its second-quarter 2026 investor letter. The fund holds three semiconductor equipment manufacturers, which were its top performers over the quarter: Applied Materials up 111.8% in USD, KLA up 105.2%, and Lam Research up 103.0%. KLA, the leader in process control and yield management, continues to play a critical role as semiconductor manufacturing becomes increasingly complex, with demand for its inspection and metrology tools structurally supported by the transition to advanced nodes, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging. The fund returned 13.8% in GBP for the quarter, compared with 13.0% for the MSCI World Index and 13.1% for the IA Global sector average.

Guinness Global Innovators Fund highlighted Lam Research Corporation as a top performer in its second-quarter 2026 investor letter, with the stock gaining 103.0% in USD during the quarter. The fund noted that Lam, which specializes in etch and deposition, has been supported by accelerating DRAM and high-bandwidth memory demand, resilient China revenues, and faster-than-expected growth in its high-margin services business. Management has repeatedly raised its outlook for global wafer fabrication equipment spending, framing the current cycle as supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained, and extended its elevated growth outlook into 2026 and 2027. Lam Research closed at $314.00 per share on August 21, 2026, with a market capitalization of $383.62 billion and a 52-week gain of 210.03%.

Lam Research announced plans to invest more than US$3 billion over five years to expand its global research and development lab network and increase experiment capacity. The announcement follows a strong run for the stock, with a year-to-date share price return of 69.67% and a one-year total shareholder return of 211.75%, though the seven-day return declined 8.68% and the 90-day return fell 2.69%. Based on the most followed narrative, Lam Research's fair value of $323.38 sits slightly above the recent $314 close, framing the new R&D spending as part of a longer-term earnings story. However, a discounted cash flow model from Simply Wall St estimates fair value at $169.91, well below the recent price.

Applied Materials reported fiscal third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates on revenue and adjusted profit, yet its shares fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading and kept sliding into August 14, 2026, while rival Lam Research saw its stock rise 6% after its own stronger-than-expected results on July 29, 2026. Applied Materials posted adjusted earnings of $3.50 a share versus the $3.40 expected and revenue up 25% year over year to $9.12 billion, topping the roughly $9 billion forecast, and guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $10.25 billion, above the $9.55 billion analysts expected. Investors punished the stock because they wanted clearer proof the company is outpacing rivals rather than falling behind them, with Summit Insights Group noting Applied's topline has lagged peers including ASML and Lam Research, and Morgan Stanley calling the quarter good but not great. Lam Research forecast first-quarter revenue of $8.10 billion, well above the $7.09 billion expected, and adjusted earnings of $2.15 a share versus the $1.83 Wall Street expected, and its prior quarter also beat with revenue of $6.72 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.82 a share. Applied Materials trades at 32.14 times forward earnings, a discount to Lam's 34.59 times, KLA's 36.85 times, and ASML's 33.39 times, and a $220 million unrealized investment loss dragged GAAP earnings per share below estimates even as the adjusted figure beat.

Bank of America lowered its price target on Applied Materials to $650 from $720 while keeping a Buy rating, citing slower sequential growth and a flatter margin outlook. The move follows a record fiscal third quarter in which revenue rose 25% year over year to $9.12 billion and non-GAAP EPS jumped 41% to $3.50. BofA noted Applied's quarterly guidance implies roughly 13% sequential growth versus about 20% for Lam Research, and it compressed its valuation multiple to 27 times estimated 2028 earnings from 36 times previously. The bank simultaneously raised its EPS estimates for 2026, 2027 and 2028 by 8%, 15% and 22%, respectively, while highlighting roughly 50% year-over-year DRAM growth and more than 70% advanced-packaging growth tied to AI infrastructure demand.

Polen Capital Management's Focus Growth Strategy identified Lam Research Corporation as its top-performing holding in the second quarter of 2026. The fund returned 6.33% net of fees during the quarter, significantly underperforming the Russell 1000 Growth Index's 16.74% gain, as the market rally remained narrowly focused on AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks. Lam Research, a leading supplier of wafer fabrication equipment with strength in etch and deposition, reported record March-quarter revenue and earnings per share supported by AI-driven demand. Polen Capital repositioned the portfolio toward companies benefiting from structural growth in AI infrastructure, power demand, and aerospace, and remains confident in the long-term earnings potential of its holdings. Lam Research shares closed at approximately $326.11 on August 13, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $421.71 billion.

Lam Research Corporation plans to invest more than $3 billion over the next five years to expand its global research and development lab network. The semiconductor manufacturing equipment and services provider said the investment will increase its experiment capacity by over 50%. CEO Tim Archer said the company is investing to stay ahead of customer needs and strengthen its global innovation engine for next-generation semiconductor breakthroughs. Lam Research will begin expanding its lab network this year, which spans the U.S., Asia, and Europe and currently supports over one million experiments annually.

Semiconductor equipment stocks rose Thursday after SanDisk issued bullish multi-year financial targets at its 2026 Investor Day. SanDisk guided for revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens through fiscal 2030, non-GAAP gross margins of approximately 80%, operating margins around 75%, and adjusted free cash flow margin near 50%, with plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. The company has signed New Business Model agreements with eight customers covering about 50% of bits in fiscal 2027 and roughly two-thirds in fiscal 2028, backed by committed volumes and minimum financial guarantees. Lam Research climbed about 4% as the most direct equipment beneficiary, Applied Materials rose about 1.5% ahead of its Q3 earnings report after the close, and Camtek was roughly flat after last week's sharp run. SanDisk shares jumped about 14% intraday.

Applied Materials stock has nearly tripled over the past year, returning 193% while the S&P 500 gained 21%, even as trailing twelve-month revenue grew just 3.3% to $29.02 billion. The repricing rests on a guide rather than trailing results, with management guiding fiscal Q3 2026 revenue to $8.95 billion plus or minus $500 million, up nearly 23% year over year, and committing to more than 30% growth in its semiconductor equipment business for calendar 2026. Clean room space and roughly 2,000 direct suppliers pace the ramp, with the company tracking over 100 factory projects globally and adding more than 10 in a single quarter. Leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM and advanced packaging should account for more than 80% of the year-on-year growth in total wafer fab equipment spending in 2026, with a similar profile in 2027. AMAT reports fiscal Q3 2026 results today after market close, and whether revenue lands inside the $8.95 billion band matters less than whether the calendar-2026 equipment growth still carries a more-than-30% number.

Lam Research is positioned to benefit from Taiwan Semiconductor's stronger AI-driven revenue growth, which has led the foundry to raise its 2026 outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor's increased expectations are tied to artificial intelligence workloads and advanced chip manufacturing, driving demand for semiconductor equipment suppliers like Lam Research. Lam Research provides tools used in producing high-performance AI chips, and the surge in AI spending at Taiwan Semiconductor signals potential gains for the company as a key equipment provider in that ecosystem.

The massive buildout of AI data centers is creating distinct investment opportunities across semiconductor equipment, real estate, energy, and cooling, according to experts interviewed by Fortune. Hyperscalers are projected to spend between $750 billion and $800 billion annually, with some forecasts reaching $1 trillion, representing 2.5% to 3% of U.S. GDP. In chips, B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis recommends shifting focus from giants like Nvidia to equipment suppliers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Marvell Technology, citing severe undersupply that will drive multi-year capex growth. For real estate, CenterSquare’s Patrick Wilson highlights data center REITs Equinix and Digital Realty as beneficiaries of the shift from AI training to inference, which favors urban facilities with low latency. Morningstar’s Andrew Bischof points to utilities like American Electric Power, which plans $78 billion in infrastructure investment through 2030, while New Constructs’ David Trainer sees value in traditional energy stocks such as Valero and HF Sinclair. In cooling, Morningstar’s Nick Lieb favors Vertiv for its dominant position in precision cooling, though notes concentration risk, and Eaton for its diversified exposure to the electrical grid. Some analysts warn that current spending levels may be unsustainable, with hyperscalers increasingly relying on debt and equity issuance.

Shares of chip equipment makers rose on Monday after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue jump for July. ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research all moved higher, with ASML leading the gains. TSMC said its July revenue reached approximately $14.51 billion, a 5.6% increase from the prior month, and its January through July 2026 revenue totaled roughly $89.11 billion, up 37% from the same period in 2025. The world's largest chipmaker has been boosted by strong demand for semiconductors used in artificial intelligence, and last month it reported record second quarter revenue of $40.2 billion while raising its 2026 revenue growth forecast to more than 40%.

Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Oppenheimer analysts have named Palantir Technologies, Amazon, and Lam Research as their top AI stock picks following strong quarterly results. Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora reiterated a Buy on Palantir with a $255 price target after US commercial revenue surged 149% year over year, and the company raised full-year guidance to at least 134% US commercial revenue growth. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth raised Amazon’s target to $365 from $330, citing AWS revenue growth of 37% and a backlog that climbed to $496 billion. Oppenheimer’s Edward Yang kept a Buy on Lam Research with a $400 target, noting management raised its 2026 wafer fabrication equipment spending outlook to the low-$150 billion range and he increased 2027 and 2028 estimates by 7% to 9%.

On the afternoon of August 7, the semiconductor equipment sector saw a sudden surge. Xinqi Micro-Equipment hit the daily limit up, Lianxun Instruments soared over 7 percent, and Jingyi Equipment, Fuchuang Precision, and Helin Micro-Nano followed with gains. On the news front, SEMI forecasts that global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales will grow for five consecutive years, reaching 165.9 billion US dollars in 2026, up 23.2 percent year-on-year, and potentially rising to 229.5 billion US dollars by 2028, an upward revision of nearly 30 percent from the end-2025 forecast. WSTS expects the global semiconductor market to reach 1.51 trillion US dollars in 2026, a staggering 90 percent year-on-year increase, breaking the trillion-dollar mark for the first time. Aijian Securities analysis suggests that AI capital expenditure is being transmitted along the industry chain to the equipment end. Lam Research estimates that every 100 billion US dollars in data center capital expenditure corresponds to roughly 9 to 10 billion US dollars in wafer fab equipment demand. Soochow Securities points out that HBM is driving a comprehensive upgrade in memory processes, with thin-film, etching, and metrology equipment together accounting for over 50 percent of memory equipment capital expenditure, and will fully benefit from this round of memory capacity expansion. South Korea's semiconductor exports in July surged 178.8 percent year-on-year to 41.01 billion US dollars, exceeding 40 billion US dollars for two consecutive months. GF Securities believes multiple clues confirm this high-boom cycle for semiconductor equipment, with test equipment giants like Teradyne and Advantest reporting better-than-expected results, further evidence that the AI-driven upcycle is likely to continue strengthening.

Tesla and SpaceX are moving forward with a $16.8 billion semiconductor complex in Grimes County, Texas, designed to reduce Elon Musk's dependence on outside chip suppliers. The vertically integrated Terafab facility will combine chip design, wafer production, memory, advanced packaging and testing in one location, aiming to produce more than one terawatt of AI computing capacity annually for Tesla vehicles, Optimus robots, SpaceX satellites and AI data centers. The project could create significant opportunities for semiconductor-equipment suppliers such as ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA, with ASML already factoring expected Terafab demand into its future capacity plans. While the complex may give Musk's companies greater control over chip costs and supply, building an advanced factory at this scale carries major execution risks, and investors will monitor equipment orders, construction milestones and production timelines.

Zacks Investment Research featured Lam Research, The Cheesecake Factory, Vertiv, and Fortinet as promising growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks. Lam Research guided for September 2026 quarter revenues of $8.1 billion with a non-GAAP operating margin of 39.5%, while its fiscal 2027 earnings consensus estimate rose 17.6% to $9.24 per share over the past 30 days. The Cheesecake Factory reiterated plans to open up to 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026 and saw its 2026 earnings estimate increase 10.5% to $4.43 per share. Vertiv raised full-year 2026 guidance to approximately $14 billion in net sales and adjusted earnings of $6.65 to $6.75 per share, with its 2026 earnings estimate moving 3.6% higher to $6.64 per share. Fortinet lifted its full-year 2026 revenue growth target to 19%, implying $8.02 to $8.18 billion, and its 2026 earnings estimate advanced 8.3% to $3.40 per share.

Lam Research shares surged about 20% after reporting solid quarterly results and issuing guidance well above expectations. The company posted earnings of $1.82 per share versus the $1.70 consensus estimate, and guided next-quarter earnings to $2.15 per share, far exceeding the Street estimate of $1.84. Eric Bleeker of 24/7 Wall St. noted that the jump was amplified by how far the stock had fallen during July's selloff, and he views the results as good but not spectacular. He flagged valuation concerns, with shares trading a bit above 30 times forward earnings against a full-year estimate of $9.40, which he considers the upper end of the historical range. Bleeker remains bullish on the broader semiconductor equipment space, citing raised capex from Taiwan Semiconductor and optimistic signals from Intel, and he estimates 2028 equipment spending could come in roughly 25% above current Wall Street models, with particular interest in faster-growing sub-verticals like advanced packaging and testing.

A $10,000 investment in Lam Research made 10 years ago would be worth about $320,000 today, before counting dividends. With dividends reinvested, the total climbs to roughly $365,000, far outpacing the broad market. The return was driven by the chip industry's growing appetite for manufacturing equipment, with artificial intelligence demand pushing Lam's fiscal 2026 revenue up 26% to $23.2 billion and net income up 36% to about $7.3 billion. The stock recently jumped 18% to about $298 after record fiscal fourth-quarter results and guidance for September-quarter revenue of $8.1 billion. However, shares now trade at about 52 times fiscal 2026 earnings, a premium price for a cyclical business whose sales fell 14% as recently as fiscal 2024.

Equity investors are learning that not all artificial intelligence trades are created equal this earnings season. While S&P 500 firms are on track for a 29% surge in second-quarter earnings per share, the index has been flat since mid-July as traders penalized heavy AI spenders like Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc., while rewarding Microsoft Corp. for preserving cash reserves. European stocks have fared better, with the Stoxx 600 advancing 1.3% as its members posted a 19% profit surge, benefiting from lower tech concentration. The semiconductor supply chain also saw gains, with Lam Research Corp., Schneider Electric SE and Prysmian SpA among outperformers on robust AI-enabling demand. Profit expectations continue to rise on both sides of the Atlantic, with US earnings revisions seeing net upgrades for 15 straight weeks, the longest streak since 2022.

Mizuho pushed back on concerns that Chinese memory maker CXMT will flood the DRAM market and crush pricing, telling investors the fear is overblown. TMT sector specialist Jordan Klein said the firm's Japan team estimated CXMT's DRAM bit supply growth will rise only 13% year over year in 2027, below the broader industry's 21%, leaving the company at roughly 8% of global share. That would put CXMT's 2026-2028 compound annual growth rate at 24%, in line with the overall DRAM industry, which Mizuho said points to no reckless supply expansion to try and take share with aggressive pricing. The firm cited constraints including Applied Materials and Lam Research suspending tool servicing on CXMT's existing equipment in March 2026, aging equipment due for a refresh, yield pressure from node transitions during 2027, and a lack of EUV lithography tools as a major constraint. Klein added that the Chinese government wants CXMT to allocate much more capacity toward high-bandwidth memory rather than conventional DRAM, and the company lags big time in HBM and is not selling to non-China hyperscalers, further limiting its impact on global pricing dynamics.

The Nikkei 225 surged on the 31st, closing at 64,362.02, up 2,494.59 points from the previous day. During the session it briefly rose to 65,364.73, reclaiming the psychologically important 65,000 level for the first time in four days. The rally followed strong earnings from Microsoft and Lam Research in the US market the previous day, which sparked buying in AI-related stocks, and that momentum carried over to Tokyo, where semiconductor and AI-related shares led the gains. In the South Korean market, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also soared, improving investor sentiment. On the other hand, the rapid advance prompted some selling to lock in profits, and a stronger yen amid speculation of currency intervention weighed on automakers and other shares, trimming the day's gains at times.

Lam Research shares surged approximately 18.9% in Thursday's regular-session trading after the semiconductor-equipment company issued stronger-than-expected quarterly guidance. The company forecast revenue of $8.1 billion, plus or minus $400 million, for the quarter ending September 27, well above the analyst consensus of approximately $7.09 billion. Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.15 per share, plus or minus $0.15, compared with the $1.83 estimate. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached $6.72 billion, exceeding the $6.67 billion consensus, while adjusted earnings of $1.82 per share surpassed expectations of $1.68. The company supplies deposition, etching and cleaning systems to chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Samsung Electronics, and management cited expanding artificial-intelligence infrastructure as a driver of demand for advanced processors and memory.

The Nasdaq 100 surged 3.5% in afternoon trading, on pace for its strongest session since May 2025, driven by a blockbuster quarter from Microsoft and strong results from Lam Research that reinforced confidence in the artificial intelligence spending boom. Microsoft shares soared 16.6%, their best day since October 2008, contributing 73 basis points to the index's gain, while Lam Research jumped 18.5% after earnings and guidance exceeded expectations. Ten stocks accounted for 308 of the index's 351 basis points of gains, roughly 88% of the move from about a third of the index by weight, with Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, and Intel also posting double-digit percentage advances. The rally removed fears that hyperscalers would struggle to monetize AI and that capital spending was slowing, spreading well beyond the two companies that reported. Amazon and Apple are set to report after the close, with attention on cloud capital spending and hardware margins.

Meta Platforms shares tumbled almost 10% in extended trading after the company reported earnings per share of $6.18, missing analysts' estimates by $1.04 per share, and forecast third-quarter revenue between $61 billion and $64 billion, the lower end of which is lighter than the $63.15 billion estimated by analysts. Microsoft shares rose about 3% after quarterly revenue of $90.01 billion topped estimates of $87.62 billion, with Azure growth of 43% at constant currency beating StreetAccount estimates of 40.2% growth, and the company said Azure revenue in the 2026 fiscal year surpassed $100 billion for the first time. Starbucks shares jumped 5% after the coffee retailer raised its full-year outlook and reported same-store sales growth of 7.9%, with adjusted earnings of 85 cents per share beating estimates of 66 cents per share and revenue of $9.32 billion exceeding the $9.16 billion expected. Carvana shares tumbled 14% after the online used-car retailer's full-year earnings guidance of between $2.7 billion and $3 billion missed Wall Street expectations, which included forecasts of $3 billion to $3.2 billion from Deutsche Bank and $4.45 billion from Morgan Stanley. Other notable movers included Fortinet soaring more than 11% on strong billings, Lam Research jumping more than 6% on better-than-expected results, and Qualcomm falling more than 5% on mixed quarterly results.