Ichitan Group Public Company Limited

Bualuang Securities, or BLS, remains positive on the Thai stock market, assessing that the index is likely to trend upward from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could reach a best-case target of 1,780 points before shifting into sector rotation. Its base case puts the end-2027 target at 1,710 points, based on earnings per share of 106 baht, down 4% from the same period a year earlier, with the overall profit decline driven mainly by an earnings correction in upstream energy, refining and petrochemicals. The main supporting factors come from three drivers: the global technology wave, an upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital. It estimates that every 10 billion baht in net foreign buying would lift the index by about 15 to 20 points. For its fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, it recommends a barbell approach. The first core focuses on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC. The other core focuses on power producers with structural growth, namely GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL. It also recommends retailers such as CRC and COM7, tourism names such as AOT, AWC and CENTEL, hospitals such as BH and BDMS, as well as 2027 growth leaders such as CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. In the first half of 2027, it advises rotating into groups that benefit from lower costs, such as CENTEL, before shifting to high-dividend stocks and companies with strong cash flows as the portfolio's core in the second half of 2027.

The research division of Krungsri Securities issued an analysis expressing a positive view on beverage stocks, estimating group profit in 2026 at 8.98 billion baht, up 1%, and in 2027 at 9.7 billion baht, up 8%. It selected ICHI as the group's top pick with a target price of 18.10 baht and an expected dividend yield of 7%. The main supporting factor comes from a trend of earlier and more severe hot weather, with the research house assessing that El Niño has a chance of intensifying to Godzilla El Niño levels between October 2026 and April 2027, after Pacific Ocean temperatures began exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, a level considered Super El Niño. On costs, the research division stated that oil-linked and packaging costs account for roughly 7-35% of total costs. If oil prices rise by 5%, it would affect each company's profit by about 1.4-6.2%. Meanwhile, sugar costs account for only 2-6% of total costs, and every 5% increase in sugar prices would affect group profit by only about 0.7-1.2%. For third-quarter 2026 profit, the research division expects about 2.2 billion baht, up 11% from a year earlier but down 9% from the previous quarter, with CBG showing a standout trend, while ICHI is expected to post lower profit from a high base a year earlier. In 2027, ICHI is expected to be the strongest performer with profit rising 17%, driven by revenue gains from El Niño, alkaline water and green tea products, as well as lower costs and better operating leverage.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities said the beverage stocks expected to benefit most from the cabinet's extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus Phase 2 measure, which adds another 1,000 baht per person over two months from October to November 2026, is CBG, which derives about 70% of revenue from traditional domestic retail channels. Next come OSP and ICHI, with revenue shares of about 40%. SAPPE and COCOCO are likely to see fairly limited gains because most of their revenue comes from overseas markets. For the beverage group's third-quarter 2026 results, the team initially expects nothing exciting, as this is the low season for domestic sales due to the rainy season, while export revenue is lackluster because of Myanmar's import regulation problems and coconut water sales in the Chinese market continue to contract. However, the research team expects the group's profit to grow both quarter on quarter and year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by domestic sales that should accelerate on seasonal factors and government economic stimulus measures. The research team maintains an equal-weight investment rating on the beverage group, based on normal profit growth of 11% year on year for both 2026 and 2027, and picks CBG and ICHI as top stocks because they are expected to benefit most from the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure and are seen posting stronger profit momentum than the group in the second half of this year. CBG is supported by continued growth in domestic energy drink sales, rapid expansion of revenue from contract manufacturing of the LoveZa beverage brand, and revenue from helping distribute alcoholic beverages for others, which tends to be high during the year-end festival season. ICHI will be supported by additional production capacity from its Honchuan partner coming on stream in the fourth quarter of 2026, along with continued strong growth in alkaline water sales.

KGI Securities has raised its investment rating on Thailand's beverage sector to Outperform from Neutral, selecting CBG as its sole top pick for 4Q26, followed by OSP and ICHI. The research team views the recent share price decline as an opportunity to re-accumulate, as pressure from higher raw material costs following escalating US-Iran tensions and the low season in 3Q26F are only short-term factors that will not affect medium-term margins. The research team expects combined 2H26F earnings for the sector to grow both HoH and YoY, led by CBG, while 3Q26F core earnings should still grow YoY on revenue growth and good cost control at OSP and ICHI. Demand for Thai beverages remains mixed, with energy drinks growing 2.6% YoY in the year to June 2026 versus +1.8% in March, while ready-to-drink tea contracted 2% versus -6%, and the research team expects both categories to continue contracting YoY in 3Q26F but at a slower rate. After 3Q26F, intensifying El Niño conditions could be a catalyst driving demand significantly through 1H27F. Following the release of 2Q26 results, the market has revised up earnings for both CBG and OSP, bringing the sector's new 2026-27F earnings to -2%/+1% YTD from -3%/-3% previously, while ICHI's estimates remain unchanged. The research team's 2026F-27F core earnings reflect growth of 3%/9% YoY and are now close to consensus.

Asia Plus Securities reported that global sugar prices rose as of September 15, 2026 to 18.16 dollars per pound, up about 21% from the start of the year and 13% from a year earlier. The gain was driven by lower European output due to heatwave problems, concerns over a severe El Nino that would hit Asian production, rising demand in India after the government announced an exemption on sugar import taxes, and higher oil prices that pushed Brazil to produce ethanol instead of sugar. The research team estimates that higher sugar prices will have a negative effect on beverage stocks from higher production costs, but the impact will be fairly limited because most companies lock in annual sugar raw material prices and have already adjusted their production formulas to use sweeteners instead of sugar to a large extent. The share of sugar costs in total production costs for most companies is around 8% to 10%, while COCOCO has the lowest sugar cost share at less than 2%. The stock expected to be hit hardest is SAPPE, given its export share of more than 70%, while the stock expected to be least affected is COCOCO, though the research team is still watching the impact of El Nino on key raw materials such as mature coconuts and aromatic coconuts. The research team maintained an equal-weight investment stance on the beverage sector, expecting group-wide earnings to be unexciting in the third quarter of 2026 due to the low season, but to accelerate again in the fourth quarter of 2026, and picked CBG and ICHI as top stocks on expectations that both companies will post earnings growth on both a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis and hit their yearly highs in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Ichitan Group, or ICHI, has announced its entry into the fertiliser business through a joint venture with the Ek Yong Wong group, or EYW, owner of the Nok Pak Hang brand, which has been in the industry for more than 30 years. The venture will launch a new brand called Pu Kap Tan. ICHI will hold 51% of the new joint venture, while the EYW group holds 49%, with registered capital of 150 million baht. The move is part of the ICHITAN Mission 2026 strategy, which aims to create new revenue sources beyond the beverage business that serves as its main revenue base. The joint venture targets revenue of about 1.5 billion baht and net profit of 135 million baht within its third year. It expects revenue of about 370 million baht and net profit of 20 million baht in 2027, rising to revenue of 1 billion baht and profit of 75 million baht in 2028, before reaching revenue of 1.5 billion baht and profit of 135 million baht in 2029. The joint venture's goal is to capture about 4% of the retail market share in the NPK compound fertiliser market, or generate sales of around 1.3 billion baht within its third year, out of a Thai fertiliser market that the company estimates was worth about 82 billion baht in 2026. Of that, the NPK compound fertiliser market accounts for roughly 32 billion baht, and the top five players control about 75% of the market, leaving room for competition of around 25%, or a value of approximately 8 billion baht. The joint venture aims to complete the establishment of the company and its management team by December 2026, before preparing its supply chain system, products, brand and research between January and May 2027, and then commencing full operations in May 2027. All of the revenue and profit targets above are still company estimates, not actual operating results.

Kasikorn Securities said ICHI reported normalized second-quarter 2026 profit of 309 million baht, down 1% year on year but up 8% quarter on quarter, below its previous estimate on weaker-than-expected revenue, even though cost impacts came in better than expected. ICHI targets 2026 sales of 9 billion baht, up 11% year on year, with gross margin and net margin of no less than 23.5% and 14.5% respectively, in line with our estimates. Its alkaline water continues to grow amid an overall softening market, with management saying demand still exceeds production capacity. Sales are expected at 1.1 to 1.2 billion baht in 2026 before growing about 40% to 1.6 billion baht in 2027. On production, ICHI installed an additional packaging line in June 2026 and signed a long-term contract with an external manufacturer to move production of roughly 300,000 to 400,000 crates of tea, which will add capacity for alkaline water, with results expected as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, the Cambodian market remains weak, cutting first-half 2026 export sales by 75% year on year, so the company is looking for opportunities in other markets, especially Malaysia, where ICHI's alkaline water is the first product of its kind registered with Malaysia's food and drug authority and is in a market trial period after the first shipment in March 2026. Kasikorn Securities maintains its Buy rating and mid-2027 target price of 16.10 baht, based on a target PER of 16 times, below the historical average of 17 times, and views a dividend yield of 7% to 8% as sustainable, since the company has passed the peak of its investment cycle and has strong free cash flow.

Krungsri Securities said the Prime Minister has instructed the Ministry of Finance to extend the Thai Chai Thai Plus programme by another 1-2 months to ease the cost of living for the public, after the programme enters its final month this month, with 40-50 billion baht still remaining in the budget. The research team views this positively, in line with the direction signalled earlier by the Minister of Finance, and expects the remaining funds to lead to a 2-month extension of the programme, which would support new money flowing into the economy. Based on the first phase of funding, which covered a 4-month period, the funding for this 2-month round is expected to be around 35-36 billion baht, and the portion contributed by the public at a similar level would inject 70-72 billion baht in new money into the system, or about 0.4% of GDP. Stocks expected to benefit are food and beverage groups sold through traditional retail channels, such as NEO, OSP and ICHI, but there is expected to be negative sentiment toward large retail stocks, which are expected to face continued impact, especially those selling essential goods.

Ichitan Group Public Company Limited, or ICHI, owned by Pasakorn Nathee, announced its expansion into the agricultural sector through a joint venture with the Aekyongwong Group Company Limited, a Thai fertilizer operator, to establish Tan Fertilizer Company Limited with registered capital of 150 million baht. ICHI holds 51% and the Aekyongwong Group holds 49%. The new company will target the Compound NPK fertilizer market, a premium segment in Thailand's chemical fertilizer market with a total value of over 80 billion baht, of which this premium segment is worth approximately 32 billion baht. It will start by taking over the premium fertilizer brand Rampatec, which the Aekyongwong Group has marketed for three years and which has latest sales of about 70 million baht per year. ICHI has set a revenue target for the first three years, from 2027 to 2029, of 1.5 billion baht, along with a market share target of 3-4%, amid competitors such as Mongkut brand fertilizer, Yara brand fertilizer, Hua Wua Khan Tai brand fertilizer, Kratai brand fertilizer, Ma Bin brand fertilizer, Ruea Bai Khai Muk brand fertilizer, and Nok Krachian brand fertilizer.

Two brokers remain buyers of Ichitan Group Public Company Limited, or ICHI, expecting profit to begin recovering from the fourth quarter of 2026 after production capacity constraints ease. Bualuang Securities said the company expects machinery problems to gradually clear in September and production lines to return to normal from October, which will allow alkaline water to return to full production, supported by new products, the start of production for a new OEM customer, and capacity from a partner factory expected to begin in November. It expects the gross margin in the third quarter of 2026 at around 23.5% before recovering in the following quarter. Meanwhile, the joint venture in the NPK granular chemical fertilizer business through Tan Fertilizer, in which ICHI holds 51%, with an investment of no more than 76.5 million baht, is expected to start operations in May 2027, targeting revenue of 1.5 billion baht and net profit of 135 million baht in 2029, an upside of about 9% to market profit estimates for 2029. Krungsri Securities takes a neutral view, noting that the investment will transfer the premium fertilizer brand Rampatech, which has sales of about 70 million baht, and targets revenue of 1.5 billion baht in three years, or 12% of total revenue. Both brokers also highlight dividends, expecting a dividend yield of about 6.8-7.0% in 2026.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that ICHI will begin investing in Ton Fertilizer, a business importing, producing, and distributing granulated chemical fertilizer for field crops and horticultural crops, as well as other chemicals and agricultural equipment. The company has registered capital of 150 million baht, with ICHI holding 51% and the remaining 49% held by a partner group with expertise in the fertilizer business. This investment plan amounts to 76.5 million baht for the 51% stake in the granulated chemical fertilizer, or NPK, business. The company will take over the premium fertilizer brand Rampatech, which has sales of about 70 million baht, into the new company, expected to begin in May 2027F, and targets revenue from this investment to increase significantly to 1.5 billion baht within 3 years, accounting for 12% of total revenue. Meanwhile, partner Ek Yong Wong has more than 10 years of expertise in the fertilizer business and owns the fertilizer brand Nok Pak Hang, which had revenue of 3 to 4 billion baht per year in 2021-25. The chemical fertilizer market is larger than 80 billion baht, with the granulated chemical fertilizer market at 32 billion baht. The company will consolidate this company into its financial statements, expected to begin in 2H27F, and this is not expected to affect dividend payments, which remain at a 100% payout. The analyst maintains 2026F normal profit at 1.26 billion baht, up 5% year-on-year, and expects 2027F profit at 1.47 billion baht, up 17% year-on-year, while maintaining a Buy recommendation with a 2027F target price of 18.1 baht based on a PER of 16x and an expected dividend yield of 7%, without yet including this investment in the estimates.

Ichitan Group Public Company Limited, or ICHI, has announced a spin-off into a new business of distributing premium fertiliser through the formation of a joint venture with Ek Yong Wong Group Company Limited, a major Thai fertiliser producer and distributor. Mr. Tan Passakornnatee, Director and Managing Director, disclosed that the company targets within 3 years for Tan Fertilizer Company Limited, the joint venture in which ICHI holds 51%, to have revenue of 1.5 billion baht and profit of 135 million baht. Operations are expected to begin around May 2027. In the initial phase, the Ek Yong Wong group will transfer the premium fertiliser brand Rampatec, which has been marketed for about 3 years and had latest sales of approximately 70 million baht per year, into the JV, and will purchase fertiliser from the JV for distribution worth about 400 to 500 million baht. Mr. Thanapun Kongnuntha, Deputy Managing Director of the Beverage Business Line, said that operating results in the second half of 2026 will grow over the first half, which had revenue of 4.09163 billion baht and net profit of 595.77 million baht, driven by orders from both existing and new customers, benefiting from weather conditions and the government's Thai Help Thai Plus measures. He also expects revenue this year of 9 billion baht, up from 8.23986 billion baht last year.

Ichitan Group, or ICHI, is expanding into the fertilizer business by partnering with EYW Group Holding, or HoldCo, to establish a new joint venture company named Ton Fertilizer with a registered capital of 150 million baht. The company will operate the import, production, and distribution of granular fertilizer for field crops and horticultural crops. ICHI will hold 51% of the shares, while HoldCo will hold 49%. HoldCo is held by Ekayongwong Company with 45% and Mr. Nattawut Srisuthep with 44%, both of whom are experts in fertilizer and agricultural products. The new company will call for the first payment of 25% of the share value and the full amount by May 2570 (Buddhist Era), with the company expected to be established by the end of 2569 (Buddhist Era).

Yuantai Securities maintains a positive outlook on Ichitan Group's (ICHI) growth trend in the second half of the year, expecting normal profit in Q3 2026 to be 345-375 million baht, growing quarter-on-quarter and flat to slightly up year-on-year, supported by the ready-to-drink green tea market returning to growth of 3.6% and the acceleration of new product launches, especially new flavors of alkaline water and products co-branded with Kumamon. Meanwhile, the OEM business continues to decline due to production capacity constraints. However, key partner Honshin will start operating its factory in November 2026 to produce Ichitan and Shizuoka brand products, giving the company sufficient capacity for alkaline water and allowing it to resume production for IF again. This could lead normal profit to hit the year's peak in Q4 2026, with potential upside to estimates if contracts with two new customers in the alkaline water segment are signed within the year. The company also plans CSR spending of about 28 million baht per quarter in the second half, which can be double-deducted for tax purposes. Meanwhile, another partner, Precision, is expected to start production in Q3 2027, with both partners supporting growth for 2-3 years without major investment. Yuantai Securities maintains its normal profit estimates for 2026-2027 at 1,209 million baht and 1,326 million baht, respectively, and maintains a fair price at end-2027 of 16.90 baht, while upgrading its recommendation to "Buy" from "TRADING".

Ichitan Group, or ICHI, has raised its 2026 revenue target for the alkaline water segment to 1.14 billion baht, up from the previous 1 billion baht, following record-high sales. The company also aims for 1.6 billion baht in 2027. Mr. Tan Passakornnatee, Chief Executive Officer, revealed that the company plans to launch a new flavor with aloe vera, expand its functional drink portfolio, partner with Thai Coconut to enter the coconut water mixed with herbs market, and expand the premium Shizuoka tea market in the second half of 2026. For international markets, the company targets export revenue of about 180 million baht this year and expects to receive approximately 26 million baht in profit share from Indonesia. It is also accelerating market expansion in Laos and Malaysia after ending operations in Cambodia. Meanwhile, the OEM business is expected to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026 after production line improvements, and the company is studying M&A opportunities to support growth.

Brokers expect ICHI's revenue this year to be 8.68 billion baht, up 7.3% as expected. Management maintains its 2026 revenue target of 11-12% growth to 9 billion baht, but we use a more conservative assumption of 8.68 billion baht, +7.3% y-y, which should be achievable as forecast. The order trend remains very strong. It is expected that the machine breakdown will be fixed by September and production will return to full capacity in October, supporting faster revenue growth in the fourth quarter of this year. Partners such as Hon Chuan and Precision will begin contract manufacturing for ICHI, with Hon Chuan starting this November and Precision in 2027. The company continues to pay out 100% of profits as dividends, with an expected yield of around 7% per year, and is considering investment in new businesses.

I-Chitan Group Public Company Limited (ICHI) has unveiled its business plan for 2026, targeting a gross profit margin of no less than 23.5% and a net profit margin of no less than 14.5%. The company has also raised its revenue target for the alkaline water segment to 1,140 million baht, up from the previous 1,000 million baht, following consecutive all-time high sales. The company will partner with Thai Coconut to launch coconut water products blended with herbs and matcha, as well as penetrate the premium Shizuoka tea market in the second half of the year. For international operations, the company targets export revenue of 180 million baht this year and expects to recognize approximately 26 million baht in profit share from Indonesia after adjusting its strategy to focus on traditional trade channels. Meanwhile, it has expanded into new markets in Laos and Malaysia to replace Cambodia, where marketing has been halted. The OEM business is expected to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026 after production line improvements. The company will not invest in new factories but will leverage its partnership with Hon Chuan Group, which is set to begin production in October-November. The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.25 times and will use internal funds for potential future acquisitions.

Ichitan Group or ICHI revealed during its earnings call that the company will adopt an asset-light strategy through business partners to expand production capacity to support growth over the next 3-5 years, without investing in new factories. Partners will build factories on adjacent land, with construction expected to be completed in October 2026 and operations starting in November 2026. Ichitan has the first choice right to purchase products at special prices without minimum purchase commitments. Meanwhile, the company has raised its alkaline water sales target for this year to 1.14 billion baht from the previous target of 1 billion baht, and aims to expand to 1.6 billion baht next year, inspired by trends in Japan and Taiwan where sales have reached all-time highs. Additionally, the company maintains its full-year gross margin target of no less than 23.5% and net margin of no less than 14-15%, while continuing to study M&A opportunities using the company's working capital.

Asia Plus Securities' research team has issued an analysis of beverage stocks ICHI and OSP after both announced interim dividend payments from first-half results, along with an assessment of third-quarter 2026 and full-year 2026 trends. ICHI reported normalized profit of 309 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 8% quarter-on-quarter but down 1% year-on-year, 7% below the research team's estimate but close to market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter profit growth came from an 11% quarter-on-quarter rise in sales, driven by the hot season and the Thai Chuay Thai Plus stimulus measures. For the third quarter of 2026, profit is expected to be flat quarter-on-quarter despite entering the low season, because alkaline water sales continue to expand well both domestically and through new exports to China and Canada, and the company may begin original equipment manufacturing services. However, profit is expected to decline slightly year-on-year due to lower margins from higher packaging costs. The company announced a first-half dividend of 0.45 baht per share, representing a yield of 3.0%. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 normalized profit estimate at 1.25 billion baht, up 1% year-on-year, and keeps a speculative buy recommendation with a target price of 15.80 baht. For OSP, normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 was 1.1 billion baht, down 5% quarter-on-quarter but up 9% year-on-year, close to both the research team's and market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter profit decline came from a 4% quarter-on-quarter drop in sales, with beverages down 5% quarter-on-quarter due to Myanmar import regulations and other products down 7% quarter-on-quarter following a policy to reduce glass bottle production for external customers. Meanwhile, year-on-year profit growth was supported by a record gross margin of 42.8% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 41.9% in the second quarter of 2025, and selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales fell 2.1 percentage points to 22.5%. For the third quarter of 2026, profit is expected to contract quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal sales slowdown and higher raw material costs from the war situation, but still grow year-on-year thanks to production efficiency and marketing expense control. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 normalized profit estimate at 3.89 billion baht, up 11% year-on-year, and upgrades its recommendation to buy from speculative buy, using a 2027 target price of 19.20 baht. It expects profit recovery both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside the company's announced dividend of 0.45 baht per share, representing a yield of 2.6%.

Land and Houses Securities has issued an analysis recommending a buy on BTG with a target price of 23.62 baht, and on ICHI with a target price of 16.36 baht, while also assessing support and resistance levels for each stock. For BTG, second-quarter 2026 results came in below expectations, with net profit of 598.4 million baht, down 76.9 percent from a year earlier, due to weaker domestic pork and chicken prices, higher raw material and transport costs, and a special expense of 128 million baht from writing off tax credits in Cambodia. However, the second half is expected to recover as meat prices improve on tighter supply and accelerating domestic demand. For ICHI, second-quarter 2026 profit was 309 million baht, down 24.1 percent from a year earlier but up 7.9 percent from the previous quarter, as overseas sales fell sharply even though domestic sales still grew 6.6 percent. The company announced an interim dividend of 0.45 baht per share. Normal profit in the third quarter is expected to be flat from the previous quarter, supported by new products in collaboration with well-known brands, overseas market expansion, and cost control.

Kasikorn Securities has maintained its buy recommendation on ICHI shares and raised its target price to 16.10 baht, after the company reported second-quarter 2026 normalized profit of 309 million baht, down 1 percent from a year earlier but up 8 percent from the previous quarter. The result came in below the research team's earlier estimate due to weaker-than-expected revenue, although the cost impact was better than anticipated. The research team has slightly adjusted its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by 0 to 2 percent, reflecting a better-than-expected gross margin. It expects pressure from PET costs to peak in the third quarter of 2026, but still forecasts normalized profit in the first half of 2026 to grow 6 percent from a year earlier. The higher target price reflects the revised earnings estimates and an increase in the target price-to-earnings ratio from 15 times to 16 times, driven by better-than-expected cost clarity.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that ICHI reported second quarter 2569 core profit of 309 million baht, up 8% year on year and 8% quarter on quarter, excluding a special gain from land sales of 120 million baht in the second quarter of 2568. Total revenue was 2.1 billion baht, down 5% year on year but up 11% quarter on quarter. Domestic revenue, which accounted for 97% of total revenue, still grew 7% year on year despite the impact of longer than normal machine maintenance causing some product shortages, and alkaline water production overlapping with other product lines. Alkaline water is expected to grow 100% year on year and 6% quarter on quarter, accounting for 13 to 14% of revenue. Meanwhile, overseas revenue fell 81% year on year, mainly from lower Cambodia sales and lower OEM sales due to the fake coconut water problem in China. Gross margin was 23.5%, compared with 24.0% in the second quarter of 2568 and 24.1% in the first quarter of 2569, better than expected even though packaging costs rose. SG&A expenses to sales increased to 9.8% from 7.2% and 7.6% respectively, due to community and social investment promotion measures of 36 million baht, compared with 8 million baht in the first quarter of 2569, and the company received tax benefits of 72 million baht. The second half of 2569 trend is expected to improve in both revenue and easing costs. First half profit accounted for 47% of the full year 2569 normalized profit estimate of 1.26 billion baht, up 5% year on year. Second half profit is expected to increase both year on year and from the first half, supported by the El Nino period expected from October to March 2570, new alkaline water flavors launching in September, production returning to normal, full shelves, and easing costs. If oil does not exceed 90 to 95 dollars, it is still manageable. The company estimates 2570 profit to increase 17% from 8% revenue growth and lower costs. Medium to long term picture still has supporting factors, including high margin alkaline water still growing strongly and set to become the second best selling product after green tea. Production capacity increases from a partner factory completed in November 2569, supporting growth for at least three years. Depreciation will start to decline by 150 million baht in 2571 and by 50 million baht per year in 2572 to 2574, not yet included in estimates. Tax benefits double from higher community and social investment promotion measures, from investment of 300 million baht to 421 million baht, making tax saving increase from 600 million baht to 842 million baht, with the increase not yet included in estimates, and this applies from the fourth quarter of 2568 to the fourth quarter of 2571. Krungsri Securities selects ICHI as a top pick in the beverage sector, recommends Buy, and adjusts the target price to 2570 at 18.1 baht based on a PER of 16 times. It views ICHI as benefiting the most from El Nino period revenue and easing costs after the war, and expects a high dividend yield of 6.4%.

Bualuang Securities assesses the SET Index over the final five months of 2026 to be in a sideways-up trend, with a range of 1,580 to 1,700 points. Mr. Piriyapol Khongwanit, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, stated that first-half earnings of Thai listed companies grew strongly, leading to an upward revision of the market's earnings per share estimate by about 4% to 103 baht. When rolling over to mid-2027, the SET Index target becomes 1,710 points. The index is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, supported by the high season for tourism, stable high crude oil prices, and continued foreign capital inflows. Notably, net inflows in July reached as high as 47 billion baht, bringing total net purchases since the start of the year to around 74 billion baht. In the second half, there is potential for additional foreign inflows of 160 to 200 billion baht. On investment strategy, a barbell portfolio is recommended, balancing growth stocks and high-dividend stocks, highlighting five key themes: Long-term Growth, such as GULF, WHAUP, and GUNKUL; Defensive and Yield Play, such as KTB; Normalization and Stimulus, such as COM7, CRC, ERW, and CBG; Event Play from Super El Niño, such as CPF, BTG, and ICHI; and Geopolitical and Inflation Hedge, such as PTT and PTTGC. It also advises avoiding property and asset management stocks due to fragile domestic purchasing power. Meanwhile, US technology stocks remain positive despite short-term corrections, recommending accumulation of quality growth names with clear earnings and valuation support. For Thai technology stocks, only short-term speculative trading is suggested. Mr. Chaiporn Nompitakcharoen, Managing Director of Securities Business at Bualuang Securities, disclosed that for the final five months, the recommended portfolio allocation is 74% equities, 22% fixed income, and 4% alternative assets and gold. The US stock market is viewed as the most attractive, while the firm continues to expand its wealth advisory business and promote block trades to capture the uptrend.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Krungsri Securities, or KSS, says the extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures into the fourth quarter of 2026 is a positive factor for the Thai stock market. Retail lenders such as MTC, KTC, and JMT will benefit, while ICHI is likely to gain from higher sales. KSS estimates MTC will post a net profit of 1.88 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 14 percent from a year earlier, and sees a chance for full-year 2026 profit to beat estimates if loan-loss provisions decline. It gives a 2026 target price of 40 baht. For ICHI, KSS expects a core profit of 306 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 7 percent from both a year earlier and the previous quarter, with a standout dividend yield. It forecasts a 2026 yield of about 6.8 percent and expects an interim dividend for the first half of 0.50 baht per share to be announced this August.

Pi Securities assesses ICHI shares, forecasting second-quarter 2026 sales at 2.1 billion baht, down 5 percent year-on-year, due to a 2 percent decline in ready-to-drink green tea sales, lower OEM sales, and lost sales in international markets from the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. Meanwhile, YenYen sales are expected to recover for a second consecutive quarter, and alkaline water sales continue to hit new record highs, driving non-tea product group sales up 59 percent year-on-year. Gross margin is expected to decline 50 basis points year-on-year from higher plastic pellet costs, but cost pressure is easing after PET resin prices fell to 1,070 US dollars per ton in July 2026 from a peak of 1,260 US dollars per ton in March to April 2026. The ready-to-drink green tea market, valued at 17 to 18 billion baht, returned to year-on-year growth in April 2026 and is trending favorably in the second half of 2026 due to hotter weather from El Niño and the government's Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures. Pi Securities recommends a hold rating for dividend income, with a target price of 16.00 baht, based on a PE multiple of 16 times 2027 earnings, close to the beverage sector average, raised from 13.00 baht to reflect the recovery of the ready-to-drink green tea market and the growth opportunity in alkaline water.

KGI Securities Thailand has upgraded its recommendation on ICHI to buy, with a new target price of 16.50 baht, up from 13.70 baht. The research team has raised its core profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 3 to 6 percent, driven by higher gross margins, even though ready-to-drink tea sales are below expectations. It expects a return to 10 percent year-on-year growth in 2027, supported by continued expansion in the alkaline water business, clearer positive effects from El Niño, and lower PET resin costs. The research team also views ICHI as an attractive defensive stock offering high dividend yields, estimating a dividend yield of around 6 percent and an interim dividend for the first half of 0.46 baht per share, representing a yield of 3.1 percent. For the second quarter of 2026, net profit is forecast at 313 million baht, down 23 percent from the same period last year but up 9 percent from the previous quarter, due to a high profit base last year from land sales and seasonally higher sales in the current quarter.

Analysts at TISCO Securities expect Ichitan Group, or ICHI, to pay a dividend of 0.50 baht per share from its first-half 2026 operating results, representing a first-half dividend yield of about 3.5% and a full-year yield of about 7.9%. They maintain a buy recommendation and raise the target price to 17.80 baht from 14.60 baht, reflecting the expansion of alkaline water production capacity and the ability to maintain margins despite higher PET resin costs. Based on these projections, Tan Passakornnatee, director and largest shareholder holding 360,639,600 shares or a 27.74% stake as of March 16, 2026, would receive an interim dividend worth over 180 million baht before tax.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.