Fair Isaac Corporation

Corporate upheaval and strategic announcements drove sharp moves in several stocks this week. MongoDB plunged 18.5% on Monday and is on course to end the week down around 14.7% after President and CEO Chirantan Desai resigned with immediate effect to lead a new AI initiative at Meta Platforms; former chief executive Dev Ittycheria returns as interim CEO, and the company reaffirmed its third-quarter and full-year guidance. Synopsys surged 12.8% on Thursday and has gained around 9.2% over the week after setting long-term targets at its 2026 Investor Day in New York, projecting fiscal 2027 revenue of $11.1 billion to $11.2 billion, roughly 15% growth at the midpoint, non-GAAP earnings of $19.04 to $19.12 per share, free cash flow of around $3.1 billion, and plans to repurchase approximately $1 billion of stock, alongside a partnership with OpenAI on GPT-Synopsys and a multi-year IP agreement with Amazon. Mattel jumped 18.8% on Thursday and is on course to close the week up 13.6% after The Wall Street Journal reported that Authentic Brands Group has approached the toy maker with an offer that could value it at more than $20 per share, or around $6 billion or more. Nike fell 5.3% over the week to its lowest level since 2013 after mixed fiscal first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share topping expectations of 44 cents but revenue of $11.21 billion missing estimates of $11.35 billion and falling 5% on a currency-neutral basis. Fair Isaac is down 22.7% for the week after Bloomberg reported that the Federal Housing Finance Agency plans to require lenders to use credit data from only two of the three major bureaus for mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Nike tumbled 9.6% in premarket trading to $31.79 after the athletic footwear and apparel giant reported mixed fiscal first-quarter 2027 results and issued a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook. Nike reported adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share, topping the 44-cent consensus estimate, but revenue of $11.21 billion missed expectations of $11.35 billion and declined 5% on a currency-neutral basis from a year earlier. Synaptics surged 13.8% in premarket trading after onsemi and Synaptics amended their merger agreement, converting the transaction from an all-stock deal into an all-cash acquisition at $123 per share, valuing Synaptics at about $5.7 billion. The change followed an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from an unnamed strategic party received by Synaptics on Sept. 2, prompting the two companies to renegotiate the deal structure and consideration. Moderna rose 2.2% in premarket trading to $193.15 after Nasdaq confirmed the biotechnology company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index effective Oct. 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery, while Fair Isaac fell 6.9% after Bloomberg reported the Federal Housing Finance Agency plans to require lenders to use credit data from only two of the three major credit bureaus for mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Fair Isaac shares fell 7% after hours Thursday and TransUnion dropped 6% following a Bloomberg report that the Federal Housing Finance Agency plans to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to require lenders to pull credit data from two major credit reporting bureaus instead of three. The requirement could be announced as soon as Oct. 12, when FHFA Director Bill Pulte is scheduled to speak at a mortgage industry conference in Chicago, according to a person familiar with the plans cited by Bloomberg. The move would mark another significant change for an industry already under pressure from Pulte, who has repeatedly called for lower credit-reporting and scoring costs in the mortgage market and said on Sept. 3 that the agency was seriously considering bi-merge. It adds to a brutal stretch for FICO, whose shares plunged nearly 49% in September, including a 27% drop on Sept. 29, after FHFA put VantageScore, FICO's main rival, on the same mortgage-pricing grid as the traditional FICO Classic score. Three companies, Equifax, Experian Plc and TransUnion, dominate the credit-reporting industry and jointly own VantageScore, and mortgage lenders have traditionally used a tri-merge report combining credit data from all three bureaus, so the reported change represents a potential double hit: greater competition for FICO in mortgage scoring and lower demand for the bureaus' traditional three-bureau reports.

Carnival Corp. Ltd. shares jumped 13.4% after the company reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 per share. CarMax Inc. shares climbed 4.7% after posting second-quarter fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings of $1.16 per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.68 per share. Vail Resorts Inc. shares rose 2.3% after the company posted a fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted loss of $5.34 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $5.40 per share. Fair Isaac Corp. shares plunged 26.5% following Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte's introduction of a single pricing grid to mortgage pricing.

Fair Isaac Corporation shares fell 20% in pre-market trading after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced a unified mortgage pricing grid that places VantageScore on equal footing with FICO Classic. According to Bloomberg Law, Pulte said on social media that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will consolidate their loan-pricing matrices into a single grid. Hours later, TransUnion said in a press release that it will hold standalone VantageScore 4.0 mortgage pricing at 99 cents per score through December 2028, giving lenders multi-year cost certainty. The move follows a 15.2% drop 25 days ago, when the FHFA approved VantageScore 4.0 for all lenders originating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage loans. FICO is down 60.2% year to date and, at $654.71 per share, trades 65.2% below its 52-week high of $1,880 from October 2025.

Rocket Companies' Rocket Mortgage unit, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said it will become the first lender to use VantageScore 4.0 as its preferred credit scoring model on all eligible loans, sending shares up 2.58% at the open. Starting in the fourth quarter, Rocket will default to VantageScore for mortgages delivered to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, VA home loans and other eligible products. Rocket said roughly four months of testing showed VantageScore helped more clients qualify while cutting credit scoring costs, and that it has pulled 1.4 million credit reports this year using both VantageScore and FICO, with borrowers who saved money under VantageScore saving an average of $1,600 at closing. The model can factor in rent and utility payments where they appear in credit files, allowing it to score some consumers with thin credit histories, and CEO Jay Bray credited FHFA Director Pulte for encouraging the use of multiple scoring models. Investment-property, second-home, home equity, FHA and jumbo loans will stay on FICO for now, and Rocket's broker channel, Rocket Pro, will offer both scores.

AstraZeneca agreed to make a $2 billion strategic equity investment in Summit Therapeutics, sending the biopharmaceutical company's shares up 17.1% in premarket trading. The investment supports a collaboration combining Summit's flagship bispecific antibody, ivonescimab, with AstraZeneca's oncology pipeline, and AstraZeneca will acquire convertible preferred shares at a price equivalent to $18.36 per common share, a 10% premium to Summit's five-day volume-weighted average price. Fair Isaac tumbled 15% after the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced changes to mortgage pricing that will introduce competition to FICO's longstanding role in the mortgage credit-scoring market; FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will consolidate their separate pricing matrices into a single unified grid that will incorporate VantageScore alongside the traditional FICO Classic score. CarMax rose 3.7% after reporting fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.16 per share, beating analyst expectations of 68 cents, with revenue of $7.88 billion topping forecasts of about $7.06 billion. AAR Corp. surged 6.9% after announcing an agreement to acquire a 65% controlling interest in MRO Holdings at an implied enterprise value of $4 billion, alongside adjusted diluted EPS of $1.49 and revenue of $918 million that beat expectations. Netflix rose 1.4% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the streaming giant to Buy from Hold with a $95 price target, while AbCellera Biologics gained 2.1% on a JPMorgan Overweight initiation with a $17 price target and Q32 Bio rose 9.4% ahead of a key clinical data presentation at the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology Congress in Vienna beginning Sept. 30.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept VantageScore 4.0 from all mortgage lenders, ending Fair Isaac Corporation's decades-long monopoly in the US mortgage credit scoring market. Fair Isaac, known as FICO, had implemented cumulative price increases of roughly 1,800% per score since 2020, but VantageScore is marketed at under $1 against FICO's $10-plus. Following the September 4, 2026 order, FICO's stock fell about 16.7% to $932.26, roughly 53% down from its 52-week high of $1,998. In its third quarter results released on July 29, 2026, revenue rose 26% to $674 million, with mortgage origination revenue surging 97% and accounting for 62% of Scores revenue, while total software segment revenue grew by just 2%. The erosion from VantageScore adoption will be slow due to system upgrades, but FICO's unconstrained pricing power is gone, and the stock now trades at roughly 32 times earnings with short interest near 10.01% of float.

Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) fell 15.2% in afternoon trading after the Federal Housing Finance Agency approved VantageScore 4.0 for all lenders originating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage loans, according to a company press release. FHFA Director Bill Pulte directed the government-sponsored enterprises to immediately allow all mortgage lenders to use the VantageScore 4.0 credit scoring system, expanding a limited rollout that began on May 1, 2026, and already accounted for over 9% of GSE mortgage securitizations by late August. The approval introduces direct competition to FICO's Classic FICO model, which had historically held an exclusive monopoly on the mortgage-scoring market, raising investor concerns about potential market-share erosion and margin pressure. FICO shares are down 43.2% since the beginning of the year, trading at $933.70, which is 50.3% below their 52-week high of $1,880 from October 2025.

In midday trading, several stocks made notable moves. Guidewire Software plummeted 21% after issuing weaker-than-expected current-quarter revenue guidance of $372 million to $378 million, below the LSEG consensus of $387 million. Tesla dropped 6% following a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration investigation into whether its Cybercab meets federal safety standards, after the company launched robotaxis in Austin. Sandisk and KLA rallied more than 8% and 7% respectively, as the semiconductor sector gained ahead of the long weekend, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) up over 2% and the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) up 5%. Quanex Building Products surged 19% after beating third-quarter estimates with adjusted earnings of 79 cents per share on revenue of $501.8 million, versus the FactSet consensus of 66 cents and $497.5 million. AMC Entertainment rose 6.5% after CEO Adam Aron criticized Robinhood's stock tokens as "contemptible, outrageous, disgusting," while Robinhood slipped nearly 1%. Credit monitoring firms Equifax, TransUnion, and Fair Isaac fell after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte said they have been "overcharging Americans for too long," with Fair Isaac down over 15%, Equifax down 6.8%, and TransUnion down over 7%. Smith & Wesson gained 6% on an earnings beat, reporting 6 cents per share versus an expected loss of 6 cents, on revenue of $112.6 million versus the $98.7 million consensus. Lululemon Athletica tumbled 17% after forecasting current-quarter earnings of 93 to 98 cents per share on revenue of $2.29 billion to $2.32 billion, below analyst expectations of $2.40 per share and $2.53 billion. Zscaler slipped 5% despite beating earnings estimates, while Adobe fell 6% after announcing Anil Chakravarthy as its next CEO. Asana dropped 14% on weak guidance, Samsara advanced 4% on strong full-year outlook, UiPath lost 16% despite in-line guidance, and Oxford Industries sank 17% after cutting its full-year guidance.

US stock futures pointed higher Friday morning, with E-mini S&P 500 contracts up about 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures ahead roughly 0.5%, as investors awaited the June US PCE price index. The headline PCE is expected to dip 0.1% month on month, while the core reading is seen up 0.2%, suggesting inflation is easing slowly but remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Second quarter US GDP is projected at 2.1% annualised, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Among top movers, Nebius Group surged 27.13% ahead of its Q2 2026 earnings release, Bloom Energy jumped 26.49% after analyst updates and raised 2026 revenue guidance, and Sandisk gained 25.99%. On the losing side, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals fell 28.31% after narrowing quarterly guidance and reducing its full-year product revenue target, Fair Isaac declined 17.01% following Q3 results and a sharply lower price target from RBC, and Tradeweb Markets dropped 9.60% after its Q2 earnings update.

Meta Platforms tumbled more than 9% after posting quarterly earnings per share of $6.18, missing analysts' estimates by $1.04 per share, while Microsoft jumped 15% on revenue of $90.01 billion that topped expectations. MarketAxess surged 30% after Intercontinental Exchange agreed to buy the bond trading platform for $167 per share in a deal valued at more than $5 billion. Crocs dropped more than 10% despite beating fiscal second-quarter expectations and raising its forecast, as margins came in weaker than expected. Other notable movers included Quanta Services up nearly 15% on strong results, Fair Isaac plunging more than 16% on mixed results and a delayed direct license program, and Teladoc Health sinking 29% after missing revenue estimates and lowering guidance.

Fair Isaac Corporation reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $674.2 million, missing analyst estimates of $684.7 million despite 25.7% year-on-year growth. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $12.18, beating the consensus of $11.78 by 3.4%. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $2.53 billion at the midpoint, up from $2.45 billion, but that figure fell 0.9% short of Wall Street expectations. Operating margin improved to 53.8% from 48.9% in the same quarter last year, and free cash flow margin rose to 54.9% from 51.5%. Shares fell 9.4% to $1,245 in after-hours trading following the release.

Brown Advisory’s Large-Cap Growth Strategy sold its entire stake in Fair Isaac Corporation during the first quarter of 2026, citing rising mortgage rates, new lower-priced alternatives from credit bureaus, and regulatory uncertainty that clouded the outlook for FICO’s mortgage-related business. The strategy noted that mortgage rates moving back above 6% and competitive pricing pressure reduced near-term visibility, even though FICO remains a high-quality franchise. The exit came amid a 31.51% decline in FICO shares over the prior 52 weeks, with the stock closing at $1,270.83 on July 2, 2026, for a market capitalization of $29.47 billion. The strategy’s overall portfolio modestly trailed the Russell 1000 Growth Index in the quarter, with Information Technology and Health Care the largest detractors, while Industrials and Consumer Discretionary contributed positively.

Fair Isaac Corporation shares have dropped roughly 50% from a 52-week high of $2,206 in May 2025 to around $1,076 by late June 2026, leaving a market capitalization of about $26 billion. The decline followed a Federal Housing Finance Agency decision clearing lenders to use VantageScore 4.0 on mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ending FICO's exclusive role in that channel, with implementation confirmed in April 2026. Even after the drop, the stock trades at about 33 times trailing earnings of $32.76 per share and roughly 27 times guided non-GAAP earnings of $40.45 per share, while the Scores segment grew 60% to $475.0 million at a 91% operating margin in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to about $2.45 billion and authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program, though the company carries negative shareholders' equity from years of aggressive buybacks. Institutional investors are split, with 411 funds adding to positions and 576 trimming in the most recent quarter, while Akre Capital Management built its stake aggressively and Baron Asset Fund named Fair Isaac a contributor.

Jim Cramer told a Mad Money caller that he likes Fair Isaac Corporation but will not invest in the stock because of persistent fears that artificial intelligence could disrupt the company. Cramer said he is not going to get in the crosshairs of companies that might get hurt by AI, calling it too painful. He acknowledged that FICO is not as easily disrupted as the market thinks, but noted that every time the stock lifts, people sell it, comparing the dynamic to Intuit, Workday, and ServiceNow. Cramer said he cannot stop the flood of thoughts that Anthropic is going to destroy the company, so he is not going to get into that hornet's nest even though he likes the company.