Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates in bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation across Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The company mines bauxite and other aluminous ores, refines bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and industrial chemical producers, and conducts aluminum smelting and casting. It also offers aluminum powder, scrap, and primary aluminum in commodity-grade and value-add ingot forms to customers in transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. Founded in 1886, it is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Alcoa's $4.1B South32 buy and new power deals reshape its future
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Long-term power secured for Norwegian smelter Alcoa signed two power deals with Statkraft for 4.8 TWh of electricity through 2031, covering its Lista aluminium plant in Norway. This locks in stable, predictable energy for years, lowering the risk of costly shutdowns and supporting steady production.
It shows Alcoa is securing a key input for its operations, which supports future earnings and reduces uncertainty.
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Gas supply deal for Western Australia refineries Woodside will supply 31.1 petajoules of natural gas to Alcoa's Western Australian refineries from 2027 to 2030. This ensures a steady feedstock for alumina production, helping avoid supply disruptions and keeping costs in check.
It secures a critical input for Alcoa's alumina refineries, which is essential for reliable and cost-effective production.
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Alcoa to acquire South32's aluminum assets for up to $5.6B Alcoa agreed to buy South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum operations for about $4.1 billion upfront plus up to $750 million more if prices rise. The deal adds assets in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa and is expected to create $900 million in synergies. The stock fell on the news as investors weighed the large cash outlay and new shares.
This is the biggest strategic move this period, reshaping Alcoa's portfolio and driving the stock's sharp reaction.
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Alcoa funds South32 buy, adds gallium, tariff fight drags on
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U.S. pays Alcoa $174M to build gallium plant in Australia Washington gave Alcoa $174 million to build a gallium plant at its Western Australia refinery, making a semiconductor metal China mostly controls. It is new, non-aluminum revenue tied to defense demand, a small but real plus for Alcoa's long-term earnings.
New government funding for a new product line is a fresh positive driver for AA.
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Canada hits U.S. aluminum with retaliatory tariffs Canada put 15% duties on U.S. aluminum, answering America's 50% tariff on Canadian metal. Alcoa sells Canadian-made aluminum into the U.S., so this adds cost and friction to its cross-border trade, a headwind on top of the existing tariff fight.
A new retaliatory tariff directly raises costs for Alcoa's Canadian-to-U.S. flows.
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Alcoa borrows $2.6B and closes financing for South32 assets Alcoa raised $2.6 billion in bonds and closed the package funding its roughly $3.1 billion purchase of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets. It gains scale in raw materials, but adds debt and fixed interest bills that must be paid even if prices or tariffs turn against it.
The debt-funded acquisition is a major new capital event that reshapes Alcoa's balance sheet and risk.
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Alcoa says Midwest Premium holds up even if Canada tariffs are halved Alcoa's CFO said the U.S. still needs about 1 million tons of aluminum Canada cannot supply, so the Midwest Premium should not fall sharply if Canadian tariffs are cut. Alcoa recovers over $1 billion in tariffs through that premium and profits from tight supply.
Management's new guidance says a feared tariff cut would not badly hurt Alcoa's pricing.
Q3 2026
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Record Q2, South32 deal, but downgrade and tariffs weigh
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Record Q2 results and debt paydown Alcoa posted record Q2 revenue of $4B, EPS of $2.12, EBITDA of $901M, and $608M cash, while paying off its 2028 notes. Strong profits and lower debt support the stock.
This is new positive financial performance that drove sentiment in Q3.
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Morgan Stanley downgrade on aluminum surplus Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa due to an expected aluminum surplus, cutting 2027–28 price forecasts by 11–13%. Lower expected prices hurt future earnings outlook.
This is a new negative analyst action that pressured the stock in Q3.
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Canada's 15% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. aluminum Canada imposed 15% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. aluminum, adding cross-border costs for Alcoa. This raises expenses and could disrupt trade flows between the two countries.
This is a new regulatory/trade headwind that emerged in Q3.
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South32 acquisition funded with $2.6B debt Alcoa agreed to buy South32 assets for ~$4.1B, expecting ~$900M synergies, but borrowed $2.6B to fund it. The deal adds growth but also debt and fixed interest obligations.
This is a major strategic move with both positive synergies and negative debt impact, new in Q3.
News & notes movingAA
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Critical Materials & Supply Chain
Alcoa Closes Financing Package for South32 Asset Acquisition
Alcoa has closed a financing package to fund its planned acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets. The funding completion secures capital for the asset purchase, which still depends on shareholder and regulatory approvals. The debt-funded expansion adds leverage to control more bauxite and alumina capacity, a bet on scale and process expertise rather than downstream diversification, and one that raises the bar on cash generation from those assets. The risk of higher regulatory costs and operational bottlenecks matters more once fixed interest payments are locked in, since tariffs, mine approvals or weak regional premiums could constrain returns and limit room to respond to prolonged pressure on primary aluminum economics.
AA · Capital · Neutral Alcoa closed a debt financing package for its planned acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets, adding leverage and fixed interest costs.
S32.LSE · Capital · Neutral South32 is the seller of the bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets being acquired by Alcoa, a deal still pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
Alcoa CFO: Midwest Premium Won't Fall Sharply Even If Canada Tariffs Are Halved
Molly Beerman, chief financial officer of U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa, said on the 10th that the hefty premium paid for aluminum in the United States will not fall sharply even if the U.S. government halves tariffs on metal imported from Canada, because imports from other countries will still be needed. She spoke at a Jefferies conference held in New York. The Midwest Premium, the price paid for physical aluminum on top of the London Metal Exchange benchmark price, stands at a high level of $1.09 per pound, but has fallen from its June peak of $1.19 on expectations that import tariffs on Canadian aluminum may be halved. Beerman noted that the United States needs to import about 4 million tons of aluminum, of which Canada supplies only 3 million tons, meaning 1 million tons must be imported elsewhere, and explained that even if a favorable tariff rate is applied to Canada, the Midwest Premium will not fall sharply. She said that if tariff relief or exemptions are granted to other trading partners such as Japan, South Korea and Europe, covering the remaining 1 million tons, the benefit from tariffs would effectively disappear and the Midwest Premium would shrink accordingly. According to Beerman, Alcoa produces about 900,000 tons of aluminum a year in Canada and pays more than $1 billion in tariffs to import most of it into the United States, but it can not only fully recover that amount through the Midwest Premium but also generate profits from tight supply.
AA · Tariff · Positive Alcoa says it fully recovers its >$1B Canadian aluminum tariffs via the Midwest Premium and profits from tight supply, so even halved Canada tariffs won't sharply cut the premium.
ALUMINUM · Tariff · Positive Aluminum futures benchmark supported as Alcoa's CFO says the Midwest Premium won't fall sharply even if Canada tariffs are halved, keeping physical aluminum prices elevated.
Alcoa Prices $2.6B Debt Offering for South32 Acquisition
Alcoa Corporation announced the pricing of its $2.6 billion senior notes offering, which will finance the cash portion of its acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. The offering consists of $1.5 billion of 6.625% Senior Notes due 2034 issued by Alumina Pty Ltd and $1.1 billion of 6.875% Senior Notes due 2036 issued by Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., both wholly-owned subsidiaries of Alcoa. The notes, guaranteed by Alcoa and certain subsidiaries, are expected to close on September 23, 2026. Proceeds, along with cash on hand, will fund the approximately $3.1 billion cash consideration for the acquisition, which remains subject to South32 shareholder approval and regulatory clearances.
Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Goods Take Effect
Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, imposing duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% on about C$27.6 billion ($20 billion) of U.S. imports, including steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics, and electronics. The measures escalate an 18-month trade dispute following the collapse of negotiations between Ottawa and Washington, and come after the U.S. imposed new 50% duties on Canadian exports in August. U.S. companies to watch include Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, Alcoa, Deere, Caterpillar, Whirlpool, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Eaton, Emerson Electric, Honeywell, International Paper, Dow, LyondellBasell, General Motors, and Ford, among others. Bombardier faces added uncertainty after President Donald Trump threatened to block its aircraft from the U.S. market unless it manufactures in the U.S. The dispute could weigh on Canadian growth, exports, and business investment, with Canadian exports to the U.S. already falling 6.6% in July.
US awards Alcoa $174M for Australian gallium plant
The U.S. Department of War will provide $174 million in financing to Alcoa Corp. to build a gallium plant at its alumina refinery in Western Australia, as Washington moves to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals. Gallium is essential for high-performance semiconductors used in defense technologies, and China controls about 98% of global production, having banned direct exports to the U.S. in 2024. Alcoa has begun construction on the Wagerup facility, expected to produce roughly 100 tons of gallium annually, in partnership with Japan's Sojitz Corp. and JOGMEC. Assistant Secretary of War Michael Cadenazzi called the agreement landmark, securing vital supply for the defense industrial base.
Canada cannot fully supply U.S. aluminium needs, Morgan Stanley says
Canada could not fully meet U.S. aluminium import requirements even if it redirected all domestic production south of the border, Morgan Stanley said in a research note examining potential tariff relief. The United States relies on imports for about 80% of its aluminium consumption, with Canada historically its largest foreign supplier. During the first half of 2026, the U.S. imported 1.68 million tonnes, or about 280,000 tonnes per month, while Canada exported 1.16 million tonnes, averaging 192,000 tonnes per month and covering about 68% of U.S. import needs. Canadian production totalled nearly 1.6 million tonnes, equivalent to around 95% of American import requirements, meaning the U.S. would still need metal from other countries if every tonne produced in Canada were redirected there. Morgan Stanley assessed reports that Washington could reduce tariffs on some Canadian aluminium to 25% from 50%, a change that would encourage Canadian producers to send metal to the U.S. instead of Europe, where shipments enter duty-free. Still, the marginal tonne required by American buyers would come from a country facing the 50% tariff, and Morgan Stanley said the U.S. Midwest aluminium premium should continue to reflect that higher duty. The premium has traded about 30% above the implied tariff cost, partly reflecting competition with European buyers for Canadian metal, and reducing Canada's tariff could lower that competition and create modest downside for the Midwest premium. Morgan Stanley estimated that the premium could surrender roughly half its current excess over tariff-based fair value, equal to about 10 to 12 cents per pound. European premiums could receive near-term support if Canadian shipments move back toward the U.S., though recovering Middle Eastern supply may limit that impact. Further American supply could arrive under tariff discounts for companies expanding domestic capacity, with Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum planning a 750,000-tonne-per-year U.S. smelter.
AA · Tariff · Neutral Potential tariff reduction on Canadian aluminium could affect Alcoa's U.S. operations and premiums, but impact is mixed.
CENX · Tariff · Neutral Century Aluminum may face competitive pressures from Canadian imports if tariffs are reduced, but also benefits from higher premiums.
RIO.LSE · Tariff · Neutral Rio Tinto's Canadian operations could see increased U.S. demand if tariffs are reduced, but European premiums may soften.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in tentative deal
The United States is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25% as part of a tentative trade framework between the two countries, according to reports from Bloomberg and others. Terms could still change before any official announcement, with different rates possibly applying to some derivative products, and details remain under discussion. Steel imports from Canada could face a quota system with higher tariffs on volumes exceeding the quota, while aluminum likely would not face a quota under current considerations. President Trump said the deal would also remove Canadian tariffs on US agricultural goods. Shares of Canadian steel producer Algoma Steel closed 17% higher, while US steel and aluminum producers including Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Reliance, Commercial Metals, Century Aluminum, and Kaiser Aluminum fell between 2.6% and 7.5%; Alcoa, which produces more than 1 million metric tons of aluminum per year in Canada, closed up 3%.
Apple, Amgen, Huntsman, Boise Cascade, Alcoa, and BorgWarner declare dividends
Several major companies announced dividend declarations. Apple declared a cash dividend of $0.27 per share, payable on August 13, 2026 to shareholders of record on August 10, 2026. Amgen declared a $2.52 per share dividend for the third quarter of 2026, payable on September 11, 2026 to stockholders of record on August 21, 2026. Huntsman declared a $0.0875 per share cash dividend, payable on September 30, 2026 to stockholders of record on September 15, 2026. Boise Cascade declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, an increase of $0.01 per share or 5%, payable on September 16, 2026 to stockholders of record on September 1, 2026. Alcoa declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on August 27, 2026 to stockholders of record on August 11, 2026. BorgWarner declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share, payable on September 15, 2026 to stockholders of record on September 1, 2026.
Alcoa declares quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share
Alcoa declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, in line with its previous payout. The dividend is payable on August 27 to shareholders of record as of August 11, with the ex-dividend date also set for August 11. Based on the current share price, the forward yield is 0.89%.
Global Investment Casting Market to Reach USD 32.30 Billion by 2035
The global investment casting market is projected to grow from USD 19.10 billion in 2025 to USD 32.30 billion by 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 5.4%, according to a new report by Custom Market Insights. The market is expected to reach USD 20.40 billion in 2026. Growth is driven by demand for complex, high-performance cast parts in aerospace, medical devices, and industrial gas turbines, along with technological advances such as 3D-printed patterns and automated shell building. North America held the largest market share in 2025, while the Asia Pacific region is forecast to experience the highest growth rate, led by China, India, and Japan. Key players include Precision Castparts Corporation, Alcoa Corporation, and CIREX bv.
Precision Castparts Corporation · Demand · Positive Market growth driven by demand for high-performance cast parts in aerospace and medical devices, benefiting Precision Castparts as a key player.
AA · Demand · Positive Market growth driven by demand for high-performance cast parts in aerospace and medical devices, benefiting Alcoa as a key player.
CIREX · Demand · Positive Market growth driven by demand for complex cast parts, benefiting CIREX as a key player.
Netflix and Intuitive Surgical lead premarket declines after quarterly results
Netflix dropped more than 10% in premarket trading after its second-quarter results failed to impress investors, while Intuitive Surgical fell more than 11% despite beating estimates. Netflix earned 80 cents per share on revenue of $12.56 billion, compared to analyst expectations of 79 cents per share on $12.59 billion, and said it would reduce the frequency of its engagement reports. Intuitive Surgical posted adjusted earnings of $2.80 per share on $2.89 billion in revenue, above forecasts of $2.50 per share on $2.82 billion, but maintained its full-year procedure growth outlook of around 14%. Alphabet slid 1.5%, extending Thursday's 4.5% drop after a report that Google is months behind on its latest Gemini AI model. SpaceX fell more than 3.5% after aborting a Starship launch due to engine issues, with CEO Elon Musk saying another attempt would come in days. Verizon Communications rose 1% on plans to sell 274 retail stores and cut about 500 jobs as part of restructuring. BP and ConocoPhillips each gained more than 1% on news they will announce billions of dollars in new Iraq investments. Truist Financial added 1.4% after beating earnings estimates with $1.23 per share versus the $1.08 consensus. Alcoa slipped 0.5% despite topping forecasts with adjusted earnings of $2.12 per share on $3.97 billion in revenue, while lowering its 2026 alumina production outlook. Software stocks broadly declined, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF down more than 1.5% and names like Salesforce, Palantir, ServiceNow, and Microsoft all lower. Memory stocks continued to unwind, as the Roundhill Memory ETF fell more than 3% and was on track for a 19% weekly loss, with Western Digital, Micron, and Seagate all declining. Fifth Third Bancorp edged higher even after a slight earnings miss, as net interest income rose 48% year-over-year and met expectations.
Alcoa outlines ~$900M NPV AliGroup synergies as it lowers 2026 alumina output to 9.5M-9.6M tons
Alcoa Corporation outlined approximately $900 million of net present value synergies from its planned acquisition of South32’s upstream aluminum value chain assets, known as AliGroup, while lowering its full-year 2026 alumina production and shipment expectations to 9.5 million to 9.6 million metric tons and 11.5 million to 11.6 million metric tons, respectively. CEO William Oplinger described the deal as the largest transaction in Alcoa’s history, with roughly $50 million of run-rate cost savings starting in the first year after closing, and said the acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings per share and cash flow. The consideration mix includes $3.1 billion in cash and $1 billion in stock, with a 5% annualized ticking fee on the cash portion and a contingent value right capped at $750 million over four years. CFO Molly Beerman attributed the alumina guidance cut primarily to operational challenges at the Pinjarra Refinery during the second quarter, including an oxalate outbreak and a natural gas supply disruption from Cyclone Narelle. The company reported second-quarter net income of $407 million, or $1.53 per share, with adjusted EBITDA of $901 million, and ended June with a cash balance of $1.4 billion after generating $422 million in free cash flow.
AA · Capital · Positive Alcoa outlines ~$900M NPV synergies from AliGroup acquisition, expects immediate EPS accretion, and reports strong Q2 earnings.
ALUMINUM · Supply · Negative Alcoa lowers 2026 alumina output guidance to 9.5M-9.6M tons due to operational issues, reducing supply.
S32.LSE · Capital · Positive South32 is the seller of AliGroup assets; Alcoa's acquisition synergies and guidance reflect positively on the deal's value.
Alcoa posts record quarterly revenue of $4 billion in second quarter 2026
Alcoa Corporation reported record quarterly revenue of $4 billion for the second quarter of 2026, a 24 percent sequential increase. Net income attributable to Alcoa was $407 million, or $1.53 per share, while adjusted net income rose 51 percent sequentially to $562 million, or $2.12 per share. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items also climbed 51 percent to $901 million, driven by higher aluminum prices and shipments. The company generated $608 million in cash from operations and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.4 billion after redeeming the remaining $219 million of its 6.125% Senior Notes due 2028. Alcoa also announced a definitive agreement to acquire South32's interests in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for upfront consideration of approximately $4.1 billion plus a contingent value right of up to $750 million.
Netflix, Alcoa, and Five Others Report After-Hours Earnings on July 16
Seven companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the market closes on July 16, 2026. Netflix is expected to post earnings per share of $0.79, a 9.72% increase from the same quarter last year, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.47. Alcoa's consensus forecast stands at $2.33 per share, a 497.44% surge year-over-year, though it missed estimates by 12.5% in the first quarter. F.N.B. Corporation is projected to earn $0.42 per share, up 16.67%, while Vista Energy's estimate of $3.15 represents a 472.73% jump. Independent Bank Corp. is expected to report $1.77 per share, a 41.60% increase, after a slight miss last quarter. Simmons First National Corporation's forecast is $0.53 per share, a 20.45% rise, and DBV Technologies is anticipated to narrow its loss to $0.12 per share, a 92.26% improvement.
AA · Capital · Neutral Alcoa is scheduled to report earnings; consensus shows a 497% YoY surge but it missed estimates last quarter.
DBV.PA · Capital · Neutral DBV Technologies is expected to narrow its loss to $0.12 per share, a 92.26% improvement, but the article only reports the forecast, not actual results.
FNB · Capital · Neutral F.N.B. Corporation is scheduled to report earnings; forecast is $0.42 per share, up 16.67%.
IBCP · Capital · Neutral Independent Bank Corp. is scheduled to report earnings; forecast is $1.77 per share, up 41.60%.
NFLX · Capital · Neutral Netflix is scheduled to report earnings; EPS expected $0.79, up 9.72% YoY.
SFNC · Capital · Neutral Simmons First National Corporation is scheduled to report earnings; forecast is $0.53 per share, up 20.45%.
Alcoa confirms final investment decision for gallium plant at Wagerup refinery
Alcoa, together with Australia, Japan, and the US, has confirmed a final investment decision to build a gallium production facility at its Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia. The plant will occupy about three hectares, less than 2% of the refinery's total area, and will process roughly 10% of its liquor stream without requiring additional bauxite mining. Construction is expected to create around 200 jobs and 20 operational roles, with Alcoa managing both construction and operation. The project aims to diversify highly concentrated global gallium supplies critical for semiconductors and defence applications. Alcoa president and CEO William Oplinger highlighted the strategic importance of Western Australia and the company's role in delivering critical materials to the global economy.
AA · Demand · Positive Alcoa's final investment decision to build a gallium plant creates a new revenue stream from high-demand semiconductor and defense materials.
Morgan Stanley downgrades Alcoa and Vale on metal supply surplus, lower prices
Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa and Vale to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing an expected surplus in aluminum and iron ore markets that will pressure prices and earnings. The bank cut its aluminum price forecast by 11% to 13% for 2027-28, driven by new supply from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, India, and Angola, along with increased Middle East output. For Vale, Morgan Stanley lowered its iron ore price forecast by 2% to 4% for 2026-28 and sees the company's C1 cash costs rising to $23 per ton in 2026, above management's guidance. Alcoa shares fell 2% and Vale dropped 3.9% in Wednesday trading.
Alcoa, Forestar, and Eni Trade at Deep Discounts With Catalysts Ahead
Alcoa, Forestar Group, and Eni are trading at valuations well below the broader market, each with company-specific catalysts that have yet to be fully priced in. Alcoa shares have fallen 34% over the past month to around $48.60, giving it a forward P/E of 11 and an EV/EBITDA of 9, while free cash flow surged 1,250% year over year to $567 million after the company set production records at five smelters. Forestar Group trades at just 0.90 times book value with a trailing P/E of 10, and its fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 7% to $374.3 million, supported by 24,100 lots under contract representing roughly $2.2 billion of future revenue. Eni raised its 2026 cash flow guidance by 20% to €13.8 billion and nearly doubled its buyback program to €2.8 billion, while paying a 5.2% dividend yield and trading at a forward P/E of 8. Each stock carries distinct risks, including aluminum price sensitivity for Alcoa, housing market headwinds for Forestar, and crude oil and currency exposure for Eni.
AA · Capital · Positive Alcoa set production records and free cash flow surged 1,250% to $567 million, yet trades at a low P/E of 11, suggesting undervaluation.
ENI.XETRA · Capital · Positive Eni raised 2026 cash flow guidance by 20% to €13.8 billion and nearly doubled buyback to €2.8 billion, with a 5.2% dividend yield and low P/E of 8.
FOR · Capital · Positive Forestar trades at 0.90 times book value with a trailing P/E of 10, and has $2.2 billion of future revenue under contract, indicating undervaluation.
Wall Street analysts issue upgrades, downgrades, and initiations on Alcoa, Occidental Petroleum, PayPal, and others
Wall Street analysts issued a flurry of rating changes and initiations on Wednesday, July 8, 2026. Among the notable upgrades, Evercore ISI raised Occidental Petroleum to Outperform from In Line and lifted its price target to $65 from $58, while Goldman Sachs upgraded Dollar Tree to Neutral from Sell with a $155 target. On the downgrade side, Morgan Stanley cut Alcoa to Equal Weight from Overweight and slashed its price target to $53 from $79, and Barclays downgraded HCA Healthcare to Equal Weight from Overweight, reducing its target to $179 from $238. In new coverage, Barclays initiated PayPal with an Underweight rating and a $42 target, while DA Davidson started Pinterest with a Buy rating and a $26 target.
Analysts remain bullish on Alcoa Corp despite a recent selloff. B. Riley reiterated a Buy rating and a $92 price target on July 1, following Alcoa's announcement of the acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. The firm believes the initial share price drop reflects investor concerns about incremental leverage and a preference for short-term shareholder returns amid weak alumina market conditions, but views the selloff as excessive and expects long-term benefits from cost savings and stronger scale. Earlier on June 25, Wells Fargo lowered its price target from $82 to $71 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing a cautious valuation outlook due to recent aluminum price weakness, though it thinks aluminum prices have oversold.
PwC forecasts $4 trillion global M&A wave in 2026, the biggest in a decade
PwC projects global mergers and acquisitions will reach $4 trillion in 2026, marking the largest deal wave in a decade. Strategists on CNBC debated whether the surge is a tailwind or a warning sign, with Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets expecting a sluggish start to the second half before a strong finish. Stephanie Guild of Robinhood Markets warned that the flood of new equity from spin-offs and acquisitions reverses years of float-shrinking buybacks, potentially challenging market absorption. Honeywell completed its aerospace spin-off on June 29, 2026, and Rocket Lab closed the Mynaric acquisition while signing for Motiv Space Systems, with Reddit chatter pointing to a possible Iridium deal. Alcoa booked a $786 million gain on its Ma'aden stake sale and took an $895 million restructuring charge, while Comcast completed the tax-free Versant Media spin on January 2, 2026. NVIDIA, running strategic partnerships instead of traditional M&A, reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.6 billion and guided Q2 to $91 billion, with Eva Ados arguing that AI-driven productivity could blunt inflation and reduce the need for Federal Reserve intervention.
RKLB · Capital · Positive Rocket Lab closed the Mynaric acquisition and signed for Motiv Space Systems, indicating active M&A activity that could drive growth.
NVDA · Demand · Positive NVIDIA reported strong Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.6B and guided Q2 to $91B, indicating robust demand for its products.
AA · Capital · Positive Alcoa booked a $786 million gain on its Ma'aden stake sale.
HON · Capital · Neutral Honeywell completed its aerospace spin-off; impact on remaining entity is ambiguous.
Meta surges 11% on cloud business news, leading midday stock movers
Meta Platforms surged 11% after confirming it is building a new cloud business to sell excess artificial intelligence computing power to outside customers. General Mills jumped more than 6% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 95 cents a share on revenue of $4.61 billion, topping estimates, and announcing plans for $3 billion in cumulative cost savings through fiscal 2030. Progress Software rallied over 18% on better-than-expected second-quarter results and strong guidance. Datadog gained more than 2% after disclosing the acquisition of AI startup Adaptive ML. Nike rose more than 4% despite a 12% drop in China sales, as quarterly results beat expectations. Shutterstock tumbled nearly 30% and Getty Images fell 6% after Getty called off their proposed merger due to UK regulatory demands. Alcoa dropped 9% on a $4.1 billion deal to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum portfolio. Salesforce and ServiceNow rose after Guggenheim upgraded both to buy, with ServiceNow up over 6% and Salesforce up 5%. Bloom Energy added more than 2% on an expanded partnership with Brookfield to finance AI infrastructure power. Sandisk and Micron Technology fell sharply, with Sandisk down 9% and Micron off about 8%, after both more than tripled in the prior quarter.
Artificial Intelligence › AI Compute Cloud & Neoclouds ▲Competition
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Behind-the-Meter & On-site Power ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Power & Cooling ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Tooling, Data & MLOps Technology
AA · Capital · Negative Alcoa dropped 9% on a $4.1 billion deal to acquire South32's assets, a capital event.
BE · Demand · Positive Bloom Energy added more than 2% on an expanded partnership with Brookfield to finance AI infrastructure power, boosting demand for its products.
CRM · Capital · Positive Salesforce rose after Guggenheim upgraded to buy, an analyst rating event.
DDOG · Capital · Positive Datadog gained more than 2% after disclosing the acquisition of AI startup Adaptive ML, a capital event.
GETY · Regulation · Negative Getty Images fell 6% after Getty called off their proposed merger due to UK regulatory demands.
GIS · Capital · Positive Beat Q4 earnings estimates and announced $3B cost savings plan.
U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Wednesday as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and monitored peace talks between the United States and Iran. Shutterstock shares plunged 28% after Getty Images abandoned its planned merger, citing unacceptable regulatory conditions from the U.K.'s Competition and Markets Authority. Intuitive Machines climbed 7.4% after NASA awarded it a contract worth up to $148.3 million to deliver a Nova-C lunar lander by 2028, the company's sixth task order under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program. Grindr surged 7.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the LGBTQ+ dating platform to Overweight and raised its price target to $18, citing strong user engagement. Klarna Group gained 6% after a Swedish court awarded its subsidiary PriceRunner approximately $1.97 billion in antitrust damages against Alphabet's Google. Oklo advanced 4.8% after the U.S. Department of Energy approved the Documented Safety Analysis for the Groves Isotope Test Reactor, moving it into final pre-startup review ahead of a July 2026 startup. ServiceNow rose 4% after Guggenheim upgraded the enterprise software company to Buy, citing durable recurring revenue growth. Nike fell nearly 4% after forecasting continued sales declines in the first half of fiscal 2027, overshadowing better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue. Alcoa slipped 4.7% after agreeing to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets for $4.1 billion.
Nike, ServiceNow, Constellation Brands among stocks making biggest premarket moves
Nike fell more than 3% premarket after reporting a 12% sales decline in Greater China, despite beating earnings and revenue estimates for its fiscal fourth quarter. Constellation Brands rose about 1.5% after posting first-quarter earnings of $3.43 per share, above the $3.20 consensus, with revenue also topping expectations and full-year guidance roughly in line. Shutterstock plunged more than 30% and Getty Images dropped 4% after Getty called off their proposed merger due to demands from a U.K. regulator. Alcoa declined 4% after announcing a $4.1 billion deal to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum portfolio. ServiceNow gained more than 5% and Salesforce nearly 4% after Guggenheim upgraded both to buy, citing attractive valuations and dismissing AI as a threat. Bloom Energy jumped over 7.5% on an expanded partnership with Brookfield to finance power for AI infrastructure projects. Kroger slipped 2% after agreeing to acquire Giant Eagle for $1.65 billion. Sandisk tumbled 3.5% and Micron Technology fell about 2.5% on the first trading day of the third quarter, following more than tripling in the prior quarter.
South32 agrees conditional $5.6bn aluminium asset sale to Alcoa
South32 has entered a binding conditional agreement to sell its aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa in a deal with an implied enterprise value of up to $5.6 billion. The transaction includes South32's 86% interest in Worsley Alumina, full ownership of Hillside Aluminium, a 33% stake in the MRN bauxite mine, a 36% share in the Brazil Alumina refinery, and a 40% holding in the Brazil Aluminium smelter. Mozal Aluminium is not part of the sale and remains under care and maintenance while South32 explores divestment options. Total consideration comprises $3.1 billion in upfront cash, approximately $1 billion in Alcoa shares, up to $750 million in contingent cash payments linked to alumina and aluminium prices through 2030, and the assumption of around $750 million in net debt and lease liabilities plus roughly $1.2 billion in rehabilitation provisions. Completion is subject to South32 shareholder approval, Australian and South African regulatory clearances, and other customary conditions, with a long-stop date of 29 June 2027. South32 will receive a ticking fee of 5% per annum on the cash component from shareholder approval to closing. The company also announced that Matt Daley has started as CEO, with former CEO Graham Kerr staying on as a strategic advisor for the transaction.
Woodside Energy Group Ltd has executed an agreement with Alcoa Corp to supply 31.1 petajoules of Western Australian natural gas from 2027 to 2030. The gas will supply Alcoa's refineries in the state, which produce feedstock for aluminum manufacturing. Woodside indicated the gas would come from the Pluto-Karratha Gas Plant Interconnector, a pipeline that has transported gas from Pluto LNG to the Karratha Gas Plant since 2022. The company noted it has secured agreements to extend gas flows through the interconnector until 2029, providing approximately 22.9 petajoules of additional gas for the Western Australian domestic market. In 2025, Woodside produced 90.3 petajoules of gas in Western Australia, about 21 percent of the state's domestic supply.
AA · Demand · Positive Alcoa secures 31.1 petajoules of natural gas supply for its WA refineries from 2027-2030, ensuring feedstock for aluminum production.
NATGAS · Demand · Positive The agreement increases demand for natural gas in Western Australia, supporting prices.
Statkraft and Alcoa sign power deals securing 4.8 TWh for Lista aluminium plant through 2031
Statkraft and Alcoa have signed two new power agreements securing electricity supply for Alcoa's aluminium plant at Lista, Norway. The agreements cover deliveries of approximately 4.8 TWh of electricity during the period 2028–2031, providing a solid and predictable energy foundation for the smelter. The deal follows the successful restart of Production Line 2 at Lista, which recently reached the plant's nameplate capacity of 95,000 metric tonnes per annum. Alcoa is the latest of several large industrial companies to enter into new long-term power agreements with Statkraft this year, according to Hallvard Granheim, Executive Vice President Markets at Statkraft.
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