Chicago SRW Wheat Futures

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks the prices of 10 key crops from soybeans to coffee, jumped 13% in the three months through September, the largest quarterly gain since March 2022. Bloomberg News reported that the main driver was the intensifying fighting between Russia and Ukraine, which has disrupted shipments of agricultural goods out of the Black Sea region, one of the world's key sources of grain and oilseed exports. Extreme weather has also hit wheat and corn production in major growing areas from the United States to Europe. Grain prices drew further support from China's continued purchases of US soybeans and from the US-China leaders' summit in late September, after which both sides announced that China would cut import tariffs on a number of US agricultural products, including wheat and corn, while keeping additional tariffs on US soybeans. Over the past quarter, corn and wheat prices in Chicago both rose about 15%, while soybean prices gained 13%. The intensifying El Niño phenomenon is also posing risks to agricultural output in many regions, and India has just come through its weakest monsoon season in a decade, which could raise the risk of higher food prices.

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade recovered on Tuesday, September 29, after sliding to a four-week low the previous day, supported by traders' bargain-hunting, as the market turned its attention to the release of U.S. agricultural stocks data and rainy weather that is hampering harvest progress in the Midwest. The November soybean contract rose 9.50 cents, or 0.74%, to close at $12.9775 a bushel. The December wheat contract rose 4.00 cents, or 0.58%, to close at $6.9275 a bushel, while the December corn contract fell 1.00 cent, or 0.19%, to close at $5.2200 a bushel. Earlier, on Monday, September 28, soybean prices fell sharply on disappointment over the outcome of the summit between the United States and China, but the lower prices prompted investors to step in and bargain-hunt before the U.S. Department of Agriculture, or USDA, releases its quarterly agricultural stocks report on Wednesday, September 30. Traders were also adjusting positions ahead of the end of the month and the end of the quarter. Weather forecasters expect continued rain to delay the harvest through next week, and analysts warned of the risk that the rain could damage crops and cause seeds to sprout in the pods. The USDA reported after the grain markets closed on Monday that U.S. farmers had harvested 17% of the soybean crop and 18% of the corn crop as of Sunday, September 27, which, although in line with the five-year average, was still below analysts' expectations of 20% for both crops, with several states, including Iowa, behind schedule in harvest progress.

CBOT commodity contracts rose on Tuesday, September 15. The November soybean contract gained 14.50 cents, or 1.11%, to close at $13.1875 per bushel, after the National Oilseed Processors Association, or NOPA, said its members crushed 205.456 million bushels of soybeans in August, the lowest level in 11 months, pushing soybean oil stocks down to their lowest since November 2024. The December wheat contract rose 6.50 cents, or 0.90%, to close at $7.2850 per bushel, amid a fresh wave of concern over attacks on infrastructure in the Black Sea region, as hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict began to fade. The December corn contract gained 2.50 cents, or 0.47%, to close at $5.3575 per bushel, tracking a surge in crude oil prices that helped stoke demand for crops used to produce biofuels. On South American production, Conab, Brazil's national crop agency, forecast Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.64 million tonnes, up 0.7% from the previous year, but still below the US Department of Agriculture's estimate of 186 million tonnes.

Ms. Lalida Periswiwattana, deputy government spokesperson, confirmed that information circulating on social media claiming that Ms. Supajee Suthumpun, deputy prime minister and commerce minister, signed an agreement to import feed corn from the United States, along with claims that it involved 1 million tonnes of GMO corn, is untrue and creates misunderstanding. The Commerce Ministry confirmed that the import is a cooperation and agreement between Thai private-sector operators and US private-sector operators, not a signing by the government, the deputy prime minister, or any government agency, and the agreement does not state that the corn is GMO. The imports must proceed strictly under the measures and conditions set by government agencies. The reason private operators want to import is that domestic output is insufficient for demand, while import volumes from neighbouring countries have fallen sharply due to measures managing goods linked to the PM2.5 problem, so additional raw material sources are needed. The imports also remain subject to government conditions to protect farmers, with an import ratio set under the WTO framework, or one part wheat, requiring operators to buy three parts domestic feed corn. Imports under the WTO framework are capped at no more than 1 million tonnes, and any imports above that framework will be subject to a very high tax rate.

Grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher across the board on Thursday, September 10, with the November soybean contract jumping 22.75 cents, or 1.74%, to settle at $13.3225 a bushel, touching a three-year high and a contract-life record, driven by China's steady purchases of U.S. soybeans. Four traders said China bought about 1 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans this week, nearly half of the 25 million tonnes the White House said China has committed to buying from the United States annually through 2028, ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington later this month. The December corn contract rose 6.00 cents, or 1.14%, to settle at $5.3375 a bushel, and the December wheat contract gained 12.50 cents, or 1.72%, to settle at $7.4125 a bushel. Crude oil's 4% surge, with Brent crude touching $105 a barrel after the largest jump in tanker attacks since the Iran war began, was another factor supporting soybean prices, as soybeans are a feedstock for biofuel. The market is closely watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report due Friday, with analysts expecting the USDA to cut its U.S. corn production forecast. Wheat prices drew support from retaliatory strikes between Ukraine and Russia that have disrupted grain exports in the region, including an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro that damaged a Bunge plant.

OCBC Group Research expects the El Niño phenomenon to expose ASEAN countries to greater inflation risk than to an economic slowdown, with higher prices for rice, wheat, corn and vegetable oils set to be key factors weighing on their economies. Lavanya Venkateswaran, a senior economist for ASEAN and India affairs at OCBC, said in a report published on September 9 that the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are the ASEAN countries at high risk from El Niño, while Malaysia and Vietnam face significant risk as well, though of a more concentrated kind. She said that apart from Thailand and Vietnam, most major economies in the region are net rice importers, leaving the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia exposed to terms-of-trade effects from higher rice prices, and noted that most of the ASEAN-6 are large net importers of grains, making them especially vulnerable to imported inflation pressures when wheat and corn prices rise on world markets. The impact on economic growth is expected to be concentrated in the agricultural sector, with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which have large agricultural sectors, vulnerable to lost output and lower rural farm incomes, while agricultural exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam may receive some offset from higher commodity export earnings.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 9th that the price at which it sells government-purchased imported wheat to flour millers will be raised by 12.0% for the six months starting in October, to 70,020 yen per ton, compared with the previous six months starting in April. The increase is attributed to higher ocean freight and international market prices, as well as the yen's depreciation. The selling price is revised every April and October, and this is the second consecutive increase. It is the first time in seven periods that the price has exceeded 70,000 yen, since the April-September 2023 period when it hit a record high of 76,750 yen due to a surge in international prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has announced the suspension of its floating export duties on grain until the end of 2026, keeping the export duty rates for wheat, barley, and corn at 0% to address the crisis caused by the disruption of exports through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov due to Ukrainian attacks, which have affected routes accounting for over 70% of total exports. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development stated in a press release on Wednesday (September 2) that the decision was made due to the need to restructure the logistics system, with the new duty rates to remain in effect until December 31. Meanwhile, the export duty on sunflower seed oil will be frozen at the August level. Russia and Ukraine, which together account for more than a quarter of the world's wheat exports, have escalated attacks on cargo ships and ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, driving wheat futures prices to their highest level in three years. Russian wheat exports in August fell by more than half compared to the previous year, while SovEcon expects September exports to potentially drop to their lowest level since 2010. Despite Russia shifting to Baltic Sea ports, their limited capacity cannot handle the export volume of up to about 60 million metric tons per marketing year.

Wheat futures surged to their highest level in 3-1/2 years after Russia rejected a proposal to halt attacks in the Black Sea and launched strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure and border crossings, dashing hopes for a safe grain shipping corridor and sending corn and soybean prices soaring. December wheat futures rose 8.50 cents, or 1.10%, to close at $7.8250 per bushel, after touching an intraday high of $7.9225, the highest since February 15, 2023. December corn futures gained 8.25 cents, or 1.53%, to settle at $5.4600 per bushel, hitting a three-year high. November soybean futures climbed 29.75 cents, or 2.31%, to close at $13.1775 per bushel, marking a more than 2-1/2 year high. Ukrainian officials said Russian forces shelled ports and border crossings near Romania in the Odesa region in the southern Black Sea area. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia deliberately targeted the crossing points to Romania and infrastructure used for agricultural exports. The escalating tensions have nearly halted shipping routes through Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, which account for 70% of Russia's grain exports, raising concerns that exports from both Russia and Ukraine could be disrupted for an extended period.

After major Wall Street banks continued to issue grain crisis warnings, corn and wheat prices both surged to their highest levels in more than three years. A-share agricultural stock Wanxiang Doneed opened limit-up and posted its fifth consecutive daily limit. On August 31, China's three major stock indexes opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65 percent, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.35 percent, and the ChiNext Index down 1.67 percent, while more than 4,000 stocks fell. Chicago wheat futures closed up 3.1 percent on Friday at 784 cents per bushel, after touching 790.25 cents intraday, the highest since February 2023. Wanxiang Doneed mainly develops, produces and sells hybrid corn seeds. Its revenue in the first half of 2026 was 99.47 million yuan, down 15.14 percent year on year, while net profit was 13.80 million yuan, down 44.47 percent year on year. The company has issued an announcement on abnormal share price fluctuations to warn of trading risks.

Corn and wheat prices have surged to their highest levels in over three years amid global supply pressures. Corn is being supported by concerns that US production may fall short of expectations, while wheat has rallied on the risk of disrupted exports from the Black Sea following heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Wheat futures closed up 3.1% on Friday at 784 cents per bushel, and surged 12.1% for the week, marking the biggest weekly gain since March 2022. Meanwhile, corn closed up 0.6% at 536.5 cents per bushel, and rose 5.5% for the week. Corn prices were bolstered by the USDA's WASDE report, which cut its yield estimate by 2.3 bushels per acre to 180.7 bushels per acre, as well as disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour field survey. Wheat prices were supported by damage to Russia's grain export infrastructure in the Black Sea, which could reduce Russian wheat exports by several million tons. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports.

Wheat prices in Chicago hit their highest level in three years amid concerns that Russia could escalate attacks on Ukraine, affecting grain exports from the Black Sea region, where Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports. Wheat prices surged 19% in August, rising 2.6% on Thursday to reach their highest level since July 2023, after gaining 6.4% the previous day. Ukraine's agriculture ministry expects agricultural exports this season to fall by more than half from previous estimates, while Russia's wheat exports in August are expected to decline by more than 50% from the same period last year. Chris Nikolaou, general manager of Advantage Grain, said the market is concerned about logistical constraints, and prices are likely to continue rising if the situation in the Black Sea remains unresolved.

India has lifted its four-year ban on exports of wheat and wheat products. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued an official notification that wheat export policy has been changed from prohibited to free with immediate effect. The central government said the country currently has sufficient wheat reserves, and the move is part of efforts to encourage farmers to grow more wheat in the coming years. Official data show India produced nearly 120.65 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 crop year, up about 2.3 percent from the previous year. Sanjeev Chopra, Secretary of the Department of Food and Public Distribution, said that because domestic wheat prices are currently low, allowing exports will help push domestic prices higher, increase farmers' incomes, and encourage farmers to expand planting in the coming season.

Corn and wheat contracts on the CBOT closed higher on Thursday, August 20, while soybean contracts closed lower. December corn rose 5.50 cents, or 1.10%, to settle at 5.0350 dollars per bushel, after the Pro Farmer crop tour in the Midwest found that corn yields in Illinois were likely to come in below expectations. December wheat rose 2.50 cents, or 0.36%, to settle at 7.0000 dollars per bushel, as export restrictions on wheat from Russia and Ukraine led the market to expect that importing countries may have to turn to other, higher-priced sources. Wheat importers around the world are bracing for tighter supply after tit-for-tat attacks between Russia and Ukraine on ports and cargo ships in recent weeks forced several grain terminals to shut down and caused shippers to postpone or cancel dozens of cargoes during the peak export season. November soybeans fell 0.75 cents, or 0.06%, to settle at 12.3650 dollars per bushel, pressured by prospects for good US yields, weak old-crop export sales, and the likelihood of higher soybean production from Brazil.

CBOT wheat futures closed up more than 3% on Friday, as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war raised concerns that global wheat supply will shrink. September wheat rose 22 cents, or 3.37%, to settle at 6.7475 dollars per bushel. December corn gained 11.25 cents, or 2.38%, to 4.8325 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 10.25 cents, or 0.86%, to 11.9250 dollars per bushel. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said traders are building a larger risk premium into wheat prices because Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and most of those shipments move through Black Sea ports. The US Department of Agriculture also lowered its forecast for US wheat production in the WASDE report. Soybean futures were supported by news that China bought an additional 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans, and by oil prices rising more than 1% after reports of an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Wheat futures rallied sharply on Friday after Russia rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire covering civilian vessels and port infrastructure in the Black Sea region. Chicago SRW contracts rose 11 3/4 to 22 cents, with a weekly gain of 35 cents, while KC HRW futures led the advance with gains of 15 to 33 cents and September up 40 1/4 cents on the week. MPLS spring wheat closed 9 to 10 3/4 cents higher, though September was 1 1/4 cents lower for the week. Recent strikes on export infrastructure have limited shipments from key Black Sea ports during the post-harvest period when wheat exports typically ramp up. CFTC data showed managed money added 7,615 contracts to their CBT wheat net short position in the week of August 11, reaching a net short of 31,401 contracts, while in KC wheat they cut 5,432 contracts from their net long to 27,662 contracts. Total wheat sales for 2026/27 stand at 7.538 million metric tons, 36% of the USDA export estimate and below the 44% average pace, and Taiwan flour mills purchased 97,200 metric tons of US wheat in a tender overnight.

Wheat futures rallied sharply across all three U.S. exchanges on Thursday, with Chicago SRW contracts closing 13 ¾ to 22 ½ cents higher, KC HRW up 14 ½ to 21 ¾ cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 13 to 15 ¼ cents. The gains followed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port that halted operations at the country’s largest port, and Russia’s retaliatory strike on a vessel in Ukraine’s Odesa port. USDA data showed 2026 wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million from July, and 2026/27 ending stocks at 717 million bushels, also down 5 million. World ending stocks were raised by 0.41 million metric tons to 273.25 million metric tons, with increases for Canada and Ukraine offsetting a cut for the EU.

Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to their highest level in two weeks on Wednesday, August 12, while soybean and wheat contracts also rose after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for corn ending stocks for the 2026-2027 season to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.790 billion bushels, and cut its soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53.0 bushels per acre. December corn futures rose 20.25 cents, or 4.40 percent, to settle at 4.8075 dollars per bushel. September wheat futures gained 22.50 cents, or 3.57 percent, to close at 6.5275 dollars per bushel, and November soybean futures advanced 14.50 cents, or 1.24 percent, to settle at 11.8325 dollars per bushel. The market also drew support from supply disruption concerns after Ukraine sent drones to attack the port of Novorossiysk, Russia's main wheat export port on the Black Sea, forcing the two largest grain transshipment terminals to temporarily suspend operations.

Global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, amid concerns over production volumes and key grain export routes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that its world food price index increased 0.6 percent from the previous month, reaching the highest since January 2023, driven mainly by higher prices for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. A major risk stems from the Black Sea region after attacks between Russia and Ukraine intensified, raising concerns over grain exports and helping push wheat prices to a two-year high in June. Meanwhile, Europe is facing one of its most severe drops in grain production on record due to extreme heat, and key growing areas in the United States are experiencing drought, increasing risks to corn and soybean output. Food price risks could rise further in the near term due to the prospect of an unusually strong El Niño, coupled with fertilizer supply issues and still-high energy costs.

Wheat futures are trading higher across most contracts at Wednesday's midday, with Chicago SRW up 8 cents, Kansas City HRW front months up 12 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 4 to 5 cents. The gains come amid heightened concerns over Black Sea export flows as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated attacks on vessels and ports in recent weeks. Algeria purchased an estimated 300,000 to 720,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender on Wednesday, providing additional support. December CBOT wheat reached $6.65 1/4, December KCBT wheat hit $7.36 1/2, and December MIAX wheat traded at $7.13 1/2.

CBOT grain futures closed higher across the board on Monday, with September wheat surging 11.75 cents, or 1.84 percent, to settle at 6.5100 dollars per bushel, driven by concerns that escalating fighting between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. December corn rose 8.50 cents, or 1.83 percent, to close at 4.7250 dollars per bushel, while November soybeans added 4.75 cents, or 0.40 percent, to end at 11.9225 dollars per bushel, supported by worries over US growing conditions and news of fresh soybean export sales totaling 488,000 metric tons to China and another 136,150 metric tons to unknown destinations. However, falling crude oil prices and rains in parts of the US Midwest pressured corn and soybeans for much of the trading session.

Wheat futures are trading higher across all three U.S. exchanges at midday Thursday, supported by a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian grain export terminal in Taman on the Kerch Strait. Chicago SRW contracts are up 8 to 9 cents, KC HRW futures are 12 to 13 cents higher, and MPLS spring wheat is up 10 to 11 cents in the front months. Weekly export sales data showed 285,165 metric tons of 2026/27 wheat sold in the week of July 23, a marketing year low that was less than half of the same week last year and near the low end of trade expectations. September 2026 CBOT wheat is at $6.69 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents, while December 2026 CBOT wheat is at $6.86 3/4, up 9 cents.