← Back

Rough Rice Futures

Rough rice futures are traded on the CBOT/CME and priced in USD. They serve as the US benchmark for long-grain rough (paddy) rice.

Price · split & dividend adjusted

Why is Rough Rice Futures (RICE.COMM) moving?

Latest
▼3▲1

Rice Prices Pressured by Oversupply, Tariff Hopes and Weather Risks

  • US Rice Acreage Plunges to 50-Year Low US planted rice acreage fell to the lowest in over 50 years, signaling a smaller future crop. That tightens supply and would normally push rough rice futures up, but the report frames it as part of a broader food-price squeeze that is curbing consumer spending.

    It is a major supply-side event that directly affects the future availability of rough rice.

  • Japanese Rice Prices Fall on Swollen Inventories Early-harvest rice payments in Japan dropped 2–45% year-on-year as private inventories ballooned far beyond normal. Supermarket rice prices also fell below 3,500 yen per 5 kg for the first time in 18 months, a clear sign of oversupply that weighs on global rice prices.

    It shows a concrete price decline in a major Asian market due to excess supply, a direct bearish force.

  • Record Low Japanese Demand and Record Inventories Japan’s domestic table rice demand hit a record low of 6.83 million tonnes, while private inventories swelled to a record 2.43 million tonnes. This surplus, driven by falling demand and rising imports, adds to global oversupply and pressures rough rice futures lower.

    It quantifies the demand slump and inventory glut that are key bearish drivers for rice prices.

  • Thailand Seeks US Tariff Exemption for Rice Thailand is pushing for US tariff exemptions on 13 products, including rice, under Section 301. If granted, it would lower costs for Thai rice exports to the US, potentially boosting demand and supporting rough rice futures prices.

    It is a new trade policy development that could increase export demand for rice.

Q3 2026
▼3▲1

Rice Prices Pressured by Oversupply, Tariff Hopes and Weather Risks

  • US Rice Acreage Plunges to 50-Year Low US planted rice acreage fell to the lowest in over 50 years, signaling a smaller future crop. That tightens supply and would normally push rough rice futures up, but the report frames it as part of a broader food-price squeeze that is curbing consumer spending.

    It is a major supply-side event that directly affects the future availability of rough rice.

  • Japanese Rice Prices Fall on Swollen Inventories Early-harvest rice payments in Japan dropped 2–45% year-on-year as private inventories ballooned far beyond normal. Supermarket rice prices also fell below 3,500 yen per 5 kg for the first time in 18 months, a clear sign of oversupply that weighs on global rice prices.

    It shows a concrete price decline in a major Asian market due to excess supply, a direct bearish force.

  • Record Low Japanese Demand and Record Inventories Japan’s domestic table rice demand hit a record low of 6.83 million tonnes, while private inventories swelled to a record 2.43 million tonnes. This surplus, driven by falling demand and rising imports, adds to global oversupply and pressures rough rice futures lower.

    It quantifies the demand slump and inventory glut that are key bearish drivers for rice prices.

  • Thailand Seeks US Tariff Exemption for Rice Thailand is pushing for US tariff exemptions on 13 products, including rice, under Section 301. If granted, it would lower costs for Thai rice exports to the US, potentially boosting demand and supporting rough rice futures prices.

    It is a new trade policy development that could increase export demand for rice.

News & notes moving RICE.COMM
Japan
RICE.COMM▼

Rice prices fall for seventh straight week, 5kg at 2,926 yen; private inventories hit record high

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 2nd that the average price of rice sold at about 1,000 supermarkets nationwide between September 21 and 27 was 2,926 yen per 5 kilograms, down 8 yen from the previous week. This marks the seventh consecutive week of decline. The average price of branded rice, which accounts for 84% of sales volume, fell 18 yen to 2,948 yen, while blended rice rose 22 yen to 2,805 yen. Private inventories at the end of August stood at 1.5 million tons, piling up to a record high for that time of year. Normally this is the period when inventories are at their lowest ahead of the full distribution of new rice, but this year a large amount of rice from the previous year's crop has been carried over, and a significant easing of supply and demand continues.
RICE · Supply · Negative Record-high private rice inventories and ample carryover signal a significant easing of supply and demand, pressuring rough rice futures lower.
Read original ↗
Jiji Press·3dRead more →
United StatesThailand
RICE.COMM▲

US Races to Grow Jasmine Rice at Home, Challenging Thai Hom Mali

The US rice industry, led by the USA Rice Federation, is systematically ramping up domestically grown jasmine rice to reduce its reliance on imports from Thailand. Each year the US imports roughly 1.5 million tons of rice worth about 1.5 billion US dollars, and as much as approximately 800,000 tons of that is Thai jasmine rice. In 2026, the US expanded its jasmine rice planting area to a record high of about 50,000 acres, or roughly 126,400 rai, triggering a shortage of seed. Six states, namely Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas, are now all producing jasmine rice. The jasmine rice market is expanding at an average of 4% per year and is expected to grow to 7% by 2030. Walmart has announced it is the first retailer to switch its sourcing to domestically grown rice, while Kroger is moving in the same direction. A campaign during National Rice Month in September 2025 drove sales of domestically produced jasmine rice up 8.9% year on year and 5% month on month. The Thai Trade Center in Chicago warns that Thailand must adopt a more proactive strategy, focusing on preserving the value of Thai Hom Mali Rice rather than competing on price cuts.
RICE · Demand · Positive Record US jasmine rice plantings and retailer sourcing shifts raise demand for US-grown rice.
WMT · Demand · Positive Walmart announced it is the first retailer to switch its sourcing to domestically grown jasmine rice.
KR · Demand · Positive Kroger is moving to source domestically grown jasmine rice, supporting US rice demand.
Read original ↗
Money & Banking·3dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼

August Private Rice Inventories Hit Record 1.5 Million Tons as 2025 Crop Carryover Piles Up

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 30th that private-sector rice inventories as of the end of August reached 1.5 million tons, about 1.8 times the level at the end of August last year. This is the highest level for an end-of-August reading since the survey began in 2008, with carryover of the 2025 crop piling up ahead of the new rice season. The ministry compiles and publishes monthly holdings of collectors and wholesalers; the end-August breakdown showed collectors up 570,000 tons to 1.08 million tons and wholesalers up 90,000 tons to 420,000 tons.
RICE · Supply · Negative Record 1.5 million tons of private rice inventories, 1.8x last year, signals a large supply overhang weighing on rough rice prices.
Read original ↗
Jiji Press·5dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼2

Rice price falls to 2,934 yen per 5 kg, down for sixth straight week, agriculture ministry says

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 25th that the average price of rice sold at about 1,000 supermarkets nationwide between the 14th and 20th was 2,934 yen per 5 kilograms, 37 yen lower than the previous week. This marks the sixth consecutive week of decline. The average price of branded rice, which accounts for 82 percent of sales volume, fell 22 yen to 2,966 yen, while blended rice dropped 83 yen to 2,783 yen. At a press conference after the Cabinet meeting on the 25th, Agriculture Minister Kazuo Yanagi stressed that rice prices are on a downward trend and said, "We must firmly stabilize the balance of supply and demand." Private inventories are significantly above typical levels, and price cuts driven by easing supply and demand are occurring one after another.
RICE · Supply · Negative Rice prices fell for a sixth straight week as private inventories sit well above typical levels, easing supply-demand balance and pressuring rough rice futures.
Read original ↗
Jiji Press·10dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼3

Average rice price falls below 3,000 yen for first time in two years, down for fifth straight week

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 18th that the average price of rice sold at about 1,000 supermarkets nationwide during September 7-13 was 2,971 yen per 5 kilograms, down 32 yen from the previous week. The decline marked the fifth consecutive week of falling prices, and the price dropped below 3,000 yen for the first time in about two years, since early September 2024. The average price of branded rice, which accounts for 85 percent of sales volume, fell 35 yen to 2,988 yen. Blended rice also dropped 34 yen to 2,866 yen.
RICE · Supply · Negative Average rice prices fell for a fifth straight week to below 3,000 yen, signaling ample supply and weakening prices for rice futures.
Read original ↗
時事通信·17dRead more →
SEAASEANPhilippinesIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaVietnam
Climate Adaptation & Water▲

OCBC warns Thailand faces highest inflation risk from El Niño in ASEAN

OCBC Group Research expects the El Niño phenomenon to expose ASEAN countries to greater inflation risk than to an economic slowdown, with higher prices for rice, wheat, corn and vegetable oils set to be key factors weighing on their economies. Lavanya Venkateswaran, a senior economist for ASEAN and India affairs at OCBC, said in a report published on September 9 that the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are the ASEAN countries at high risk from El Niño, while Malaysia and Vietnam face significant risk as well, though of a more concentrated kind. She said that apart from Thailand and Vietnam, most major economies in the region are net rice importers, leaving the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia exposed to terms-of-trade effects from higher rice prices, and noted that most of the ASEAN-6 are large net importers of grains, making them especially vulnerable to imported inflation pressures when wheat and corn prices rise on world markets. The impact on economic growth is expected to be concentrated in the agricultural sector, with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which have large agricultural sectors, vulnerable to lost output and lower rural farm incomes, while agricultural exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam may receive some offset from higher commodity export earnings.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Resilient Crop Inputs (bred seed, nutrients, protection) ▼Supply
Climate Adaptation & Water › Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food Demand
CORN · Demand · Positive El Niño-driven inflation risk is tied to higher world prices for corn, implying stronger demand/price pressure for corn futures.
WHEAT · Demand · Positive Article cites higher wheat prices on world markets as a key El Niño inflation factor, supportive for Chicago SRW wheat futures.
RICE · Demand · Positive Higher rice prices are flagged as a key El Niño inflation driver for ASEAN net importers, supportive for rough rice futures.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·25dRead more →
ThailandChinaUnited States
RICE.COMM▼

Thai agricultural exports fall for 4 consecutive quarters; 2026 outlook faces competition and El Niño

Krungthai COMPASS Research Center reported that Thailand's agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted by 3.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. This was pressured by slowing markets in China and the US, as well as the impact of the Middle East conflict, which caused exports to the Middle East to plunge by 32.6%, particularly rice and canned seafood. In the agricultural products category, which accounts for 53% of total export value, exports were flat at -0.01%. Meanwhile, the agro-industrial category, which accounts for 47%, reversed to a contraction of 7.9%. Among key products, rice contracted by 17.1%, cassava by 36.1%, and sugar by 17.0%. However, fresh, chilled, frozen, and dried fruits continued to expand by 12.9% due to demand from China, especially durian, which grew by 28.8%. For the 2026 outlook, exports still face risks from rising costs, tight supply, intense competition, El Niño conditions, and trade barriers imposed by the US and the European Union.
RICE · Demand · Negative Thai rice exports contracted 17.1% due to weak demand
SUGAR · Demand · Negative Thai sugar exports fell 17.0% amid competition and trade barriers
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·31dRead more →
ChinaThailand
RICE.COMM▼

China Reduces Agricultural Imports, Thai Trade Office Warns Thailand to Prepare, Rice and Sugar at Risk

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) revealed that China is likely to reduce its agricultural imports over the next decade, particularly rice and sugar, which could impact Thailand's exports. Meanwhile, China's grain output in 2025 hit a record high of 715 million tons, and meat production surpassed 100 million tons for the first time. Corn imports fell by 80.6% and wheat imports by 64.4%, while exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products increased by 6.4%, 4.4%, and 7.5%, respectively. However, China continues to increase fruit imports by an average of 6.1% per year, and poultry meat imports are expected to reach 1.27 million tons by 2035, growing at an average of 2.4% per year. Meanwhile, China's rice imports are expected to decline by an average of 9.1% per year to 0.95 million tons by 2035, and sugar imports will drop to 4 million tons as China boosts domestic production by 2.5% annually. TPSO recommends that Thai businesses upgrade product quality, especially premium fruits and processed goods, and diversify export markets.
RICE · Demand · Negative China's rice imports expected to decline 9.1% annually to 0.95 million tons by 2035.
CORN · Demand · Negative China's corn imports fell 80.6%, reducing demand for corn futures.
SUGAR · Demand · Negative China's sugar imports to drop to 4 million tons as domestic production rises.
WHEAT · Demand · Negative China's wheat imports fell 64.4%, reducing demand for wheat futures.
Read original ↗
Kaohoon·33dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼3

Government to Buy Back 210,000 Tons of Reserve Rice via Discretionary Contracts for 2025 Crop

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Kenichi Suzuki announced at a press conference after the Cabinet meeting on the 1st that the government will buy back 210,000 tons of the reserve rice released since last year. The target is the 2025 crop, which has seen swelling inventories, and discretionary contracts will be concluded within this month. This decision is based on the 2026 crop outlook published at the end of August, and Suzuki emphasized that "it has been confirmed that a sufficient supply of rice will be secured." He also stated that after the buyback, "we would like to proceed appropriately while assessing supply and demand conditions," leaving room for additional buybacks. The reserve rice inventory is considered appropriate at 1 million tons, but as a result of releasing a total of 590,000 tons for food use since last year, it has fallen to 320,000 tons, making it urgent to restore reserve levels from the perspective of food security.
RICE · Supply · Negative Government buyback of 210,000 tons of reserve rice reduces market supply, likely supporting prices.
Read original ↗
Jiji Press·34dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼

Rice at 3,156 yen per 5 kg, private inventories at record high at end of July

On August 28, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced that private rice inventories reached a record high as of the end of July. The average retail price at supermarkets and other stores was 3,156 yen per 5 kilograms, remaining at elevated levels. The government plans to stabilize prices by releasing rice from its reserves, but prices have continued to stay high despite the increase in inventories.
RICE · Supply · Negative Record high private inventories and government reserve releases increase supply, pressuring rice futures prices.
Read original ↗
Jiji Press·38dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼

New Rice Advance Payments Fall Amid Large Carryover Stocks

Ahead of the new rice harvest, agricultural cooperatives across Japan are increasingly lowering the advance payments they make to farmers. In Niigata Prefecture, the largest producing area, JA Zen-Noh Niigata has cut its payment for top-grade Koshihikari rice to 18,500 yen per 60 kilograms, down 38% from the previous year. In Hokkaido, Hokuren has reduced its payment for Nanatsuboshi rice from 29,000 yen last year to 17,000 yen, a decrease of about 40%. The background is that large stocks of the 2025 crop, which saw high prices, remain unsold, making it difficult to foresee sales of the new rice. Many producing areas are offering payments below the cost indicator of 20,535 yen set by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, raising concerns among producers. At retail, the phenomenon of new rice being cheaper than old rice, known as 'new-old reversal,' is also occurring, and JA Zenchu is urging the government to buy back stockpiled rice earlier.
Hokuren · Pricing · Negative Hokuren reduced Nanatsuboshi payment by ~40% amid high carryover.
JA Zen-Noh Niigata · Pricing · Negative JA Zen-Noh Niigata cut advance payment for Koshihikari by 38% due to unsold stocks.
RICE · Supply · Negative Large carryover stocks and lower advance payments signal oversupply, pressuring rice futures.
Read original ↗
時事通信·39dRead more →
ThailandMalaysiaVietnamIndiaCambodia
RICE.COMM▲2

Thailand Reclaims Top Rice Exporter Spot to Malaysia, Expected to Surpass 700,000 Tonnes This Year

The Department of Foreign Trade revealed that Malaysia ranked Thailand as its top rice import source in the first half of the year, with 327,995 tonnes, or 46 percent of total rice imports. This year's volume is expected to surpass 700,000 tonnes, the highest in more than 20 years. Mrs. Arada Fuangtong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, said Padiberas Nasional Berhad, or BERNAS, the sole rice importer of Malaysia, indicated that in the first half of 2026, Thailand returned to the top spot as Malaysia's leading rice import source, with 327,995 tonnes out of total rice imports of 710,656 tonnes, or about 46 percent. Vietnam followed with 232,416 tonnes, India with 62,115 tonnes, and Cambodia with 57,602 tonnes. Thailand's rice volume in just the first six months of this year exceeded the amount Malaysia imported from Thailand for all of 2025, which stood at 264,605 tonnes, reflecting a remarkable return to growth for Thai rice in the Malaysian market. Most of the rice Malaysia imports from Thailand is white rice, because consumers in Peninsular Malaysia prefer rice with a relatively firm texture that expands well when cooked, a key characteristic of Thai white rice. BERNAS wants Thailand to maintain quality in line with market demand and praised Thai rice exporters for delivering goods according to contract. BERNAS's rice procurement decisions do not consider price alone, but also place importance on quality, consistency, and on-time delivery, which are key strengths of Thai exporters. Meanwhile, Thai jasmine rice and Thai fragrant rice continue to be recognized for quality and have opportunities to expand in the quality-conscious consumer segment, despite facing price competition from fragrant rice of rival countries. Based on Malaysian market demand trends, the Department of Foreign Trade expects that in 2026 Thailand will export more than 700,000 tonnes of rice to Malaysia, the highest level in more than 20 years, and will continue to work with the private sector to maintain quality standards and steadily expand the Thai rice market.
Padiberas Nasional Berhad (BERNAS) · Demand · Positive BERNAS, sole importer, increased imports from Thailand, highlighting quality and delivery strengths.
RICE · Demand · Positive Thailand's rice exports to Malaysia expected to surpass 700,000 tonnes, boosting demand for rough rice futures.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·44dRead more →
ThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaCongo - KinshasaMozambiqueChinaIraq
RICE.COMM▲

Commerce Ministry Eyes Full-Year Rice Exports of 7 Million Tonnes, Buoyed by El Niño-Driven Demand Surge

The Ministry of Commerce has revealed that although Thai rice exports in the first half of 2026 declined, the full-year target of 7 million tonnes remains intact, supported by rising import demand to stockpile reserves in response to the El Niño phenomenon. Mrs. Arada Fuangtong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, stated that in the first six months, Thailand exported approximately 3.28 million tonnes of rice, down 18.81 percent, worth over 1.911 billion US dollars, a drop of 20.51 percent from the same period last year, due to high global rice supply and price competition, as well as a halt in exports to Iraq since March. The department sees potential in alternative markets such as Malaysia, the Philippines, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mozambique, where imports from Thailand have increased, and will accelerate government-to-government rice trade negotiations with COFCO of the Chinese government, while leading a delegation to meet key importers in the Philippines and Malaysia between August 2 and 6 to push exports toward the target.
301058.CS · Demand · Positive Article mentions accelerating government-to-government rice trade negotiations with COFCO, potentially increasing demand for COFCO's engineering services.
RICE · Supply · Positive El Niño-driven demand surge and maintained export target suggest tighter supply, supporting rice futures prices.
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·60dRead more →
Japan
RICE.COMM▼

Rice Price Outlook Remains Bearish, July Forecast Index Hits Record Low of 18

According to the July survey results on table rice prices released on the 6th by the Rice Stable Supply Support Organization, the price outlook index for the next three months came in at 18, down 1 point from the previous month and hitting a new record low. The bearish sentiment on rice prices, which are already on a downward trend, is spreading further.
RICE · Demand · Negative Bearish price outlook index hits record low, indicating weakening demand expectations for rice.
Read original ↗
Jiji Press·60dRead more →
ThailandUnited States
RICE.COMM▲

Commerce Ministry to push 13 products worth 4.9 billion dollars for additional US tariff exemptions

The Commerce Ministry is preparing to push for 13 more key Thai export products, with a combined value of 4.95341 billion US dollars, to negotiate additional import tariff exemptions under Section 301 of the United States. Arada Fuangtong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, revealed that Thailand currently has 2,120 products exempted and not subject to the additional 12.5 percent tariff, accounting for more than half of Thai exports to the US. The 13 products to be proposed for additional exemptions represent 8.81 percent of total export value, covering handicrafts, pet food, rice, rubber gloves, processed seafood, and other consumer goods. Meanwhile, the Thai side has been scheduled for technical-level discussions in the negotiations on the Agreement on Reciprocal Tariffs, or ART, and expects that the US may raise the issue of structural overcapacity to pressure for faster negotiations, with possible clarity around September or early October.
RICE · Tariff · Positive Thailand seeks US tariff exemptions for rice, potentially boosting exports.
RUBBER · Tariff · Positive Rubber gloves are among products proposed for US tariff exemptions, aiding demand.
Read original ↗
Kaohoon·61dRead more →
Climate Adaptation & Water▼

China faces crop damage risk as heatwave blankets key agricultural regions

China's corn, rice, and cotton growing areas are at high risk of damage in the coming days as a heatwave spreads across the northern and eastern regions, which are the country's key agricultural zones. Vaisala, a commercial weather forecasting company, says high pressure will bring hotter-than-normal conditions this week, with Shenyang seeing maximum temperatures between 35 and 38 degrees Celsius through Thursday, August 7, while Beijing will experience temperatures in the low to mid-30s Celsius through this weekend. Meanwhile, the climate center of Shandong province, which accounts for 10 percent of domestic corn output, has warned that temperatures will remain in the mid to high 30s Celsius continuously until at least August 5, potentially affecting the summer corn yield, and high humidity from monsoon moisture could increase the risk of crop disease. In Liaoning province, which produces about 7 percent of the country's corn, officials in Jinzhou city expressed concern that major crops like corn and rice are in a critical growth stage, and that sloping and sandy areas are losing more moisture. Additionally, the heat is blanketing the Xinjiang autonomous region, which grows nearly all of China's cotton, with Xinjiang's climate center issuing a warning that temperatures of at least 35 degrees Celsius will be widespread through August 11, and Turpan could see highs reaching 50 degrees Celsius.
About megatrends
Climate Adaptation & Water › Climate-Resilient Agriculture & Food ▼Demand
CORN · Supply · Negative Heatwave threatens corn yields in key regions
COTTON · Supply · Negative Heatwave in Xinjiang threatens cotton production
RICE · Supply · Negative Heat and moisture stress rice crops in Liaoning
Read original ↗
InfoQuest·63dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

2026 New Rice Crop Kicks Off Sales Season at 30% Lower Than Previous Year

The 2026 new rice crop has begun appearing on store shelves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, starting the sales season at levels roughly 30 percent below the previous year. The rice released is Koshihikari from Miyazaki Prefecture, and at the Hanakoganei Station branch of the supermarket Inageya, a 5-kilogram bag is being sold for 2,990 yen before tax, which is 1,200 yen cheaper than last year. According to a survey by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the average price of rice per 5 kilograms sold at supermarkets nationwide has recently fallen to the low 3,000 yen range, but compared to before the price surge, it remains high and sales are struggling to grow. With the distribution of new rice, downward pressure on prices of the currently mainstream 2025 crop is expected to intensify.
RICE · Supply · Negative New 2026 crop enters market at 30% lower prices, increasing supply and pressuring rice futures downward.
Read original ↗
時事通信·63dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

Domestic table rice demand hits record low of 6.83 million tonnes as imports surge, outlook revised down

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries disclosed on the 28th that demand for domestically produced table rice for the year starting July 2025 will total just 6.83 million tonnes on a brown rice basis, marking a record low. The figure fell 80,000 to 210,000 tonnes short of the March outlook, as the ministry failed to factor in declining demand for domestic rice amid a rise in private imports. In the wake of the Reiwa rice shortage, the calculation method was revised to account for factors such as demand from foreign visitors, but the surge in imports caused the demand forecast to be overly optimistic. For the 2025 crop, production exceeded the inflated demand forecast due to soaring rice prices, resulting in a surplus. Private inventories at the end of last month swelled to a record 2.43 million tonnes, heightening concerns over falling prices.
RICE · Supply · Negative Record high private inventories and surplus production due to falling domestic demand and rising imports, pressuring rice prices.
Read original ↗
時事通信·69dRead more →
RICE.COMM

Table rice production expected to increase in 20 prefectures

It has emerged that table rice production is expected to increase in 20 prefectures. In the comments section of Yahoo! News, concerns have been raised that soaring rice prices are directly impacting people's lives, along with the risk of a price crash due to insufficient support when switching back to table rice after converting to feed rice. There were also opinions expressing confusion over agricultural policies that change direction in a short period.
RICE · Supply · Neutral Expected increase in table rice production across 20 prefectures, but concerns about price crash and policy confusion create mixed outlook for rough rice futures.
Read original ↗
THE PAGE·70dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

New Rice Prices Reverse Surge, Likely to Fall This Year

After soaring, new rice prices are now being flagged as likely to decline this year. In the comments section of Yahoo! News, the causes of the price surge are attributed to hoarding by Japan Agricultural Cooperatives and distrust of the distribution system, with the buyback of stockpiled rice seen as a price-support measure. Among consumers, rice consumption is falling and a shift to other staples is underway, with some viewing this as negative for farmers. There are also voices suggesting that rice culture may end up in a museum someday, and opinions that even if prices settle down, people will not buy rice themselves.
RICE · Demand · Negative Article states rice prices likely to decline this year due to falling consumption and shift to other staples.
Read original ↗
THE PAGE·80dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

Average 5kg rice price falls to 3,403 yen, down for third straight week

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 17th that the average price of 5 kilograms of rice sold at around 1,000 supermarkets nationwide from the 6th to the 12th was 3,403 yen, down 55 yen from the previous week. This marks the third consecutive week of decline. The average price of branded rice, which accounts for about 80% of sales volume, fell 66 yen from the previous week to 3,455 yen, while blended rice also dropped 21 yen to 3,216 yen. With new-crop 2026 rice from Kyushu hitting the market at the end of this month and 2025 rice becoming old crop, wholesalers are increasingly moving to reduce inventories, and retail prices could fall further.
RICE · Supply · Negative Rice prices falling for third consecutive week due to new-crop supply and inventory reduction, lowering futures value.
Read original ↗
時事通信·80dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

New rice prices likely to fall this year: early-harvest advance payments in Kagoshima and Miyazaki drop 2–45% year-on-year

The likelihood is growing that rice prices for the 2026 crop will decline. This month, the Kagoshima Prefecture Economic Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives showed local cooperatives an early-harvest purchase price about 20% lower than the previous year. For early-harvest Koshihikari rice from Miyazaki Prefecture, the advance payment was set at 18,000 yen per 60 kilograms of brown rice, a 45% drop from the previous year's 32,600 yen. Behind this is a supply-demand easing as private-sector inventories have swelled far beyond normal levels. Supermarket rice prices also fell below 3,500 yen per 5 kilograms in the first week of July for the first time in about a year and a half. Industry voices are increasingly calling for an early buyback of stockpiled rice. A Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers' league submitted an emergency resolution, and JA-Zenchu Chairman Shinnou stressed that stockpiles should be replenished to 100% as soon as possible. Meanwhile, within the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, there are cautious views concerned that buying back before the harvest could prevent the 2026 crop from being harvested in sufficient volume.
RICE · Supply · Negative Early-harvest advance payments drop 2-45% year-on-year, indicating falling rice prices due to supply-demand easing and swollen inventories.
Read original ↗
時事通信·81dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

Retail price of 5 kg of rice falls below 3,500 yen for the first time in a year and a half

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 10th that the average price of 5 kilograms of rice sold at around 1,000 supermarkets nationwide between June 29 and July 5 was 3,458 yen, down 96 yen from the previous week. This marks the second consecutive week of decline, and the price has fallen below 3,500 yen for the first time in a year and a half, since the final week of December 2024. The average price of branded rice, which accounted for 78 percent of sales volume, fell 87 yen from the previous week to 3,521 yen, while blended rice dropped 106 yen to 3,237 yen.
RICE · Supply · Negative Retail rice prices fell below 3,500 yen for the first time in 1.5 years, indicating lower demand or increased supply, which is negative for rice futures.
Read original ↗
時事通信·87dRead more →
RICE.COMM▼

CoBank Quarterly: Rising food prices squeeze household budgets, constrain consumer spending

Price increases across most food and beverage categories are tightening household budgets and prompting consumers to make wholesale changes in how they shop, according to a new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. Overall food prices are up 2.7% from May 2025 and roughly 26% higher than five years ago, leading a growing number of Americans to trade down to lower cost food options, reduce discretionary purchases, or buy fewer groceries altogether. Large grocery retail chains are unveiling price rollbacks and value positioning to maintain traffic, while food and beverage manufacturers emphasize affordability through pricing adjustments and promotions. The report also highlights that 4 out of 10 consumers cite rising prices as their top concern for the year ahead, with cost pressures straining some demographics more than others. Beyond food, the report covers a wide range of sectors, noting that interest rates have moved meaningfully higher since March, U.S. planted rice acreage plunged to the lowest level in more than 50 years, and U.S. tomato prices rose nearly 40% between January and April, the biggest three-month increase since 2006.
RICE · Supply · Negative U.S. planted rice acreage plunged to the lowest level in more than 50 years, indicating reduced supply which is negative for Rough Rice Futures.
Read original ↗
GlobeNewswire·88dRead more →