Thanapiriya Public Company Limited

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, estimates that the government's new economic stimulus package, with a combined value of more than 50 billion baht, will add roughly 0.2% of GDP to Thailand's near-term economic momentum, and possibly 0.3% when including the money people contribute into the system. The Cabinet on 22 September 2026 approved raising the state welfare card purchase allowance by another 700 baht per person, from 300 baht to 1,000 baht per person in October 2026, and also approved the Thai Chuay Thai Plus (additional) project, which covers the welfare allowance increase and the extension of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus 60/40 project under a combined framework of 42 billion baht. The additional 60/40 project will run from 1 October to 30 November 2026, with the state co-paying 60% of the value of goods and services, capped at no more than 200 baht per person per day and no more than 1,000 baht per person over the whole project. Meanwhile, the disaster insurance project has been allocated a budget of 15.5 billion baht, split into 15 billion baht for group residential insurance premiums and 500 million baht for group accident insurance, covering floods, windstorms and earthquakes from 1 October 2026 to 1 October 2027. KSS named the beneficiary stocks as TNP, MTC, KTC, JMT and COM7, while not yet naming any insurance stock as its top pick from the disaster insurance theme, and said the insurance group is suitable for speculative monitoring until project details become clearer.

Krungsri Securities assesses that the government is likely to extend the measure increasing the credit limit on the state welfare card for another two months, in October through November. Lavaron Sangsnit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, disclosed that after the government is likely to approve the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure, which is expected to be submitted for Cabinet approval on September 22, low-income earners under the state welfare card program must also be assisted, by topping up funds for purchasing consumer goods through Thong Fah shops, maintaining the increased limit at 1,000 baht per person per month, up from the normal level of 300 baht per person per month, continuing the original measure that raised the limit to this level from June through September. This is seen as positive for TNP, which is a shop that directly participates in the program, as well as for KK MOTHER, with revenue from the program accounting for 8-10% of total revenue, and it makes the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 more positive. Initially, SSSG for the fourth quarter of 2026 is estimated at around -2% year-on-year, and 2026 profit is estimated at 204 million baht, down 4% year-on-year. There is still upside risk of around 10% from better-than-expected SSSG, with 2026 SSSG estimated at +3% year-on-year against the assumption set at -3% year-on-year, where every 1% increase in SSSG affects 2026 profit by around 1.5%. In the short term, third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to grow the strongest at 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to 55 million baht, from an expected SSSG of +13% year-on-year after benefiting from the measure for a full quarter, including the opening of eight new branches during the fourth quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026, leading revenue to be expected to rise 23% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter. Although gross margin is expected to weaken from product mix, with essential goods carrying low margin, the stock is attractive on valuation, trading at a 2026 forecast PER of 11.2 times, below the sector average of 14 times, and it has a strong financial position as net cash. Recommend Buy with a 2027 target price of 3.88 baht, based on a PER of 14 times, close to the sector average.

Thanapiriya Public Company Limited, or TNP, a major retail and wholesale consumer goods operator in the northern region, expects its third-quarter 2026 operating results to improve. Amorn Puthipiriya, Deputy Managing Director, told "Than Hoon" that the company is supported by the tourism sector, which has boosted purchasing power and spending volumes, lifting the average purchase per bill and spending per person from the previous quarter. At the same time, the third quarter of 2026 is a quarter in which the company benefits from government economic stimulus measures for the full quarter, particularly the Thai Help Thai Plus programme, which runs for four months from June to September 2026, and the increase in the allowance for state welfare cardholders from 300 baht to 1,000 baht per person per month, which began last June. Although the company did not join the Khon La Khrueng Plus 60:40 programme because it is limited to small shops, the company benefits indirectly through smaller stores. The company targets sales revenue growth of 10-15% this year and expects SSSG to grow in the 10-15% range, even though the overall picture for 2026 may come in below 10%. On branch expansion plans, TNP currently has 60 branches, with one more planned to open in September 2026, another in October, and about three new branches in preparation, expected to open gradually by no later than November 2026. For the six-month period of 2026, the company recorded sales revenue of 1.62397 billion baht, an increase of 158.58 million baht, or 10.82%, from the same period a year earlier, and net profit of 103.59 million baht, driven mainly by new branch openings. SSSG rose 4.9% compared with the same period a year earlier, along with expansion through the wholesale channel via the head office and sales through authorised distributors.

TNP reported net profit of 55.2 million baht for the second quarter of 2026, up 9.57% year-on-year, supported by same-store sales growth of 4.9% and the opening of three new branches in the first half, bringing the total to 59 branches in the northern region. SBI Thai Online Securities noted that the second-half outlook remains bright, driven by government stimulus measures such as the Thai Helps Thai project and the tourism recovery. The company plans to open five more branches and maintains its 2026 revenue growth target of 10-15%. It expects full-year net profit of 230 million baht, up 8.2%, and recommends a Buy with a fair value of 4.00 baht.

Thanapiriya Public Company Limited, or TNP, targets sales growth of 10 to 15 percent in 2026, supported by the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measures and the Thai Thiao Thai Plus 2026 tourism campaign. The company is also moving ahead with eight new branches, bringing the total to 64 by year-end, up from 59 in the first half. Second-quarter 2026 sales revenue was 853.59 million baht, up 14.90 percent from the same period last year, while net profit was 55.22 million baht, up 9.5 percent. For the first six months, revenue was 1.62397 billion baht, up 10.82 percent, and net profit was 103.59 million baht, with same-store sales up 4.9 percent. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.0525 baht per share, with the ex-dividend date on 24 August and payment on 10 September 2026.

Thanapiriya Public Company Limited, or TNP, signals outstanding second-half 2026 performance, supported by government economic stimulus measures and the Thai Helping Thai programme. Deputy Managing Director Amorn Phutthiphiriya revealed that the company plans to open five more new branches in the second half, adding to three opened in the first half, totalling eight branches for the year, with a total investment budget of 110 million baht, and targets revenue growth of 10 to 15 percent this year. Meanwhile, Globlex Securities Company Limited, or GBS, expects second-quarter profit of 55 million baht, up 9 percent from a year earlier and 13 percent from the previous quarter, benefiting from the increase in the state welfare card limit to 1,000 baht per month during June to September 2026 and the Thai Helping Thai Plus measures, which have helped same-store sales return to positive growth of 2 to 3 percent. GBS maintains its full-year 2026 net profit forecast at 229 million baht and gives a fair value of 3.58 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 times, while keeping a buy recommendation and expecting an attractive dividend yield of 4 to 5 percent per year.

Globlex Securities, or GBS, estimates that the Thai stock index in August is likely to move in a range of 1,600 to 1,650 points, supported by a more relaxed investment climate for risk assets. This follows President Donald Trump's cancellation of plans to attack Iran and the achievement of a temporary ceasefire agreement, which caused WTI crude oil prices to ease below 80 US dollars per barrel, after having surged past 88 US dollars per barrel. In addition, the OPEC+ group is likely to increase production capacity by another 188,000 barrels per day in September. Meanwhile, investors have reduced the probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to 65 percent from 82 percent, and the European Central Bank kept its policy rate at 2.25 percent. On the domestic front, foreign capital inflows have clearly returned, with net purchases in July reaching as high as 45 billion to 48.7 billion baht, up from 6.86 billion baht in the previous month, bringing cumulative net purchases since the beginning of the year to 73 billion to 74.3 billion baht. This is coupled with June exports expanding 20.8 percent, valued at 34.66 billion US dollars, and headline inflation slowing to 2.42 percent. GBS recommends an investment strategy focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and outstanding second-quarter 2026 earnings growth prospects, namely CBG, STA, BBGI, PR9, and TNP.