Trump's duty-free beef imports and Mexico reopening pressure cattle prices
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Mexico border reopening adds cattle supply The USDA said it will resume imports of Mexican cattle through the Douglas, Arizona port by August 23 and two New Mexico ports later. More cattle coming into the U.S. means more animals available for slaughter, which pushes live cattle futures prices down.
This is a new supply increase that directly lowers cattle prices.
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Trump asks DOJ to investigate meat packers President Trump asked the Justice Department to investigate meat packers for collusion and price manipulation. The market read this as helpful to cattle producers, and futures jumped their expanded limit on Tuesday, a sign traders expect packers to pay more for cattle.
This is a new regulatory force pushing cattle prices up.
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Trump allows 300,000 tonnes of duty-free ground beef Trump announced the U.S. will import 300,000 metric tonnes of ground beef duty-free outside quota, sold up to 25% below market prices, with tariffs suspended for 90 days. More cheap imported beef adds supply and pressures live cattle futures lower.
This is the biggest new supply shock in the period and directly weighs on cattle prices.
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Brazilian beef quota nearly used up Brazil has filled 80% of its U.S. beef import quota, and once it runs out an extra 55% tariff kicks in. That makes Brazilian beef more expensive and less available, so buyers turn to domestic beef, which supports live cattle futures prices.
This is a new supply tightening from imports that supports cattle prices.
Q3 2026
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Tight US Supply and Trade Moves Drive Cattle Futures
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Record-Low US Herd Supports Prices The US cattle herd is near a 70-year low, keeping beef prices at record highs and supporting live cattle futures. This tight supply is the main reason prices remain elevated.
It explains the core supply shortage that lifted prices.
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DOJ Probe May Raise Packer Bids Trump's DOJ investigation into meat packers lifted futures as traders bet packers will pay more for cattle. This could mean higher prices for producers and futures.
It highlights a regulatory event that boosted prices.
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Imports and Plant Closure Pressure Prices Brazil's tariff exemption, the Omaha plant closure cutting processing demand, Mexico's border reopening adding cattle supply, and 300,000 tonnes of duty-free ground beef imports all pressured futures lower.
It lists the main bearish factors that weighed on prices.
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Strong Global Demand and Quota Limits Argentina's beef exports to the US jumped 158%, showing strong global demand. Brazil nearly exhausting its US quota (80% filled) supports domestic prices once extra tariffs kick in.
It shows demand strength and a supply constraint that supported prices.
News & notes movingLIVECATTLE.COMM
United States
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USDA Disaster Payments Can Cut Social Security for Ranchers Still Working at 63
Federal disaster payments for lost livestock can count as farm income and reduce Social Security benefits for ranchers who claim early and keep working, as America's cattle supply sits at a roughly 75-year low. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Livestock Indemnity Program generally pays 75% of the government's determined market value for most eligible livestock losses, so a rancher can lose cattle, receive a partial payment, and still owe a Social Security penalty. The IRS generally requires livestock indemnity payments and many other agricultural program payments to be reported as farm income on Schedule F, and someone collecting benefits before full retirement age remains subject to Social Security's retirement earnings test. In 2026, a person under full retirement age for the entire year can earn $24,480 before Social Security withholds $1 in benefits for every $2 above the limit, and for a self-employed rancher the agency looks at net earnings from the business. Beginning in 2026, producers can also submit documentation showing regional prices were higher than the national average, and the program has expanded to cover certain unborn livestock losses, while predation by certain federally protected animals can qualify for 100% of determined market value. Ranchers who have fully stopped working may exclude qualifying agricultural payments from Social Security's earnings limit, making retirement status the critical distinction.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Positive Article notes America's cattle supply sits at a roughly 75-year low, a tight-supply backdrop supportive for live cattle futures.
Foot-and-mouth virus detected for first time at New Chitose Airport quarantine, in goat meat from passenger arriving from China
It was learned on the 10th that the virus causing foot-and-mouth disease, which produces symptoms such as blisters and fever in cattle and pigs, was detected in January during quarantine at New Chitose Airport in Hokkaido. It was found in goat meat that a passenger departing from Beijing, China, and arriving at the airport had attempted to bring in, marking the first time an infectious virus has been confirmed through quarantine. The Animal Quarantine Service of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries had announced the confirmation of this virus on its website in April. The virus has not entered the country, and foot-and-mouth disease is highly contagious to livestock, with high mortality rates among calves and piglets. In Japan, an outbreak occurred in Miyazaki Prefecture in 2010, but no infections have been confirmed since then. Outbreaks have also occurred in nearby China, South Korea, Mongolia and elsewhere in 2026, and border control measures are being strengthened.
LEANHOG · Supply · Negative Foot-and-mouth virus found in quarantined goat meat heightens disease threat to pigs, which are highly susceptible with high piglet mortality.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Negative Foot-and-mouth virus detected in imported goat meat at New Chitose quarantine raises risk of livestock disease outbreak, threatening cattle supply.
Tyson and Agriculture Secretary Clash Over Plant Sale
Tyson Foods, the U.S. meat giant, and Agriculture Secretary Rollins have publicly disagreed over the sale of a recently closed beef processing plant. Rollins stated that buyers would be limited to U.S.-owned companies or cooperatives, including U.S. producers, and said he had received verbal assurances from Tyson CEO Donnie King. Tyson, however, said that any buyer, foreign or domestic, would be considered, and a spokesperson confirmed that the policy had not changed. Tyson, Cargill, JBS USA, and National Beef Packing process about 85% of U.S. grain-fed cattle. JBS USA is a subsidiary of Brazil's JBS, and National Beef is majority-owned by Brazil's Marfrig Global Foods. With foreign companies controlling a significant portion of U.S. beef processing capacity, beef prices in the U.S. have risen to record highs this year due to cattle supply shortages, becoming a political issue ahead of the midterm elections. The Trump administration has expressed concerns about foreign ownership of domestic beef processing facilities while also taking steps to encourage imports of ground beef. Last month, it announced that 300,000 tons of foreign beef would be allowed in at reduced tariffs for 90 days, drawing backlash from meat industry groups and ranchers.
TSN · Regulation · Neutral Tyson clashes with USDA over whether foreign buyers can purchase its closed beef plant, with Tyson saying any buyer will be considered.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Positive Record beef prices driven by cattle supply shortages and foreign ownership concerns support live cattle futures.
JBS · Regulation · Neutral Tyson dispute over plant sale buyer restrictions involves JBS as a foreign-owned peer controlling US beef capacity, but no JBS-specific development.
Marfrig Global Foods S.A. · Regulation · Neutral Marfrig's majority ownership of National Beef is cited as context in the foreign-ownership debate, with no Marfrig-specific development.
National Beef Packing Company, LLC · Regulation · Neutral National Beef is named as a foreign-owned processor amid policy debate over foreign ownership, but no company-specific action.
China Faces First Beef Cattle Shortage in 6 Years, Thailand Aims to Export 1.2 Million Head Annually
China is facing its first beef cattle shortage in years, as the number of cattle ready for market fell 3.8% in the first half of the year. This has driven beef imports up 17.9% to 1.42 million tons, worth 8.32 billion US dollars. Brazil holds a 56% market share, and Argentina 17%. Meanwhile, Australia faces an out-of-quota tariff as high as 55%. Thailand, which has had its live cattle exports suspended since 2024, is in negotiations with GACC to set sanitary standards, aiming to export 100,000 head per month, or 1.2 million head annually. It also plans to develop Ban Saphan port into a large animal quarantine center to support future exports.
LIVECATTLE · Demand · Positive China's first beef cattle shortage in 6 years, with cattle ready for market down 3.8% and beef imports up 17.9%, signals tight supply and strong import demand supportive for live cattle prices.
US administration to expand low-tariff beef import quota by 300,000 tons
The Trump administration announced on the 26th that it will expand the low-tariff import quota for ground beef by a total of 300,000 tons. Starting September 1, the quota will be increased by 100,000 tons per month for three months, aiming to lower retail prices. The administration expects beef supply to increase by about 10 percent, and President Trump has instructed the Agriculture Secretary and the USTR Representative to monitor whether beef is being sold at prices 25 percent lower than current levels. In the United States, a record drought has led to a shortage of feed supplies, increasing beef production costs and reducing herd sizes, which has driven up prices. The import expansion is intended to curb price increases.
President Trump Announces Tariff Relief on Ground Beef
On the 21st, President Trump announced a measure to suspend high tariffs on up to 300,000 tons of imported ground beef for the next 90 days as a way to bring down soaring ground beef prices. Trump said the special measure secured commitments from businesses to sell at prices 25 percent below current market levels, and stressed that it would ease the burden on American consumers and help rebuild cattle herds depleted by drought. However, he did not provide details such as which businesses would lower prices.
Trump orders duty-free import of 300,000 tonnes of ground beef
US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will import 300,000 metric tonnes of ground beef products duty-free outside quota, to help Americans consume cheaper beef. The imported beef will be sold at prices up to 25% below current market prices. Trump said the deal will help lower beef prices for working American families, while giving America's cattle herd a chance to expand again, after beef prices surged rapidly and cattle numbers fell to their lowest level in modern history during the Biden administration.
Cattle Futures Fall as Tyson Announces Plant Closures
Live cattle futures closed lower on Thursday with contracts down $1.52 to $4.35 across the board, while Tyson announced it will shut its Joslin, Illinois plant and sell its Pasco, Washington plant. The Joslin plant processes 3,000 head per day and the Pasco plant 2,000 head per day, and Tyson also said its Amarillo, Texas plant will ramp up production after cutting back kill last fall. Cash trade included some $228 to $230 sales in the North, and the Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange auction showed no sales on the 1,308 head offered with bids of $228. Feeder cattle futures saw $1.40 to $3.52 losses across most contracts, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $3.44 on August 12 to $351.93. USDA export sales data showed beef sales for 2026 at 14,426 metric tons for the week ending August 6, a three-week low, with South Korea buying 5,300 metric tons and Japan 3,000 metric tons. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice boxes up $3.62 at $375.90 and Select down 57 cents at $349.24, widening the Choice/Select spread to $26.66.
Live Cattle Futures Rally Up to $1.35 on Wednesday
Live cattle futures ended Wednesday's session with contracts up 62 cents to $1.35. Cash trade has yet to begin this week, and the Central Stockyards Fed Cattle Exchange reported no sales on the 3,044 head offered, with bids ranging from $185 to $187. Feeder cattle futures closed $1.15 to $2.20 higher, while the CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped a penny to $250.72 on November 5. USDA wholesale boxed beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with Choice boxes down $1.62 to $315.59 per hundredweight and Select down $2.04 to $283.20, widening the Choice/Select spread to $32.39. Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 125,000 head for Wednesday, bringing the weekly total to 369,000 head, even with the prior week but down 4,798 head from the same week last year.
Live cattle futures are 50 to 75 cents higher on Tuesday, while feeder cattle futures surged $3.65 to $4.10 at midday. Cash trade last week ranged from $232 to $233, with a few at $235, and early bids near $233 on Monday have yet to generate significant activity. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose $1.06 on July 31 to $346.89, and Monday's OKC feeder cattle auction saw 2,662 head sold with steer prices $5 to $10 higher and heifer prices up $5 to $15. USDA data showed the US pasture rating at 25 percent good to excellent, down 4 percentage points from the prior week, while the Brugler500 index fell 11 points to 259. Beef exports in June totaled 199 million pounds on a carcass basis, the lowest June total since 2020 but a three-month high. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher, with Choice boxes up $2.76 at $369.49 and Select $1.29 higher at $345.74. Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Monday was estimated at 90,000 head, down 2,000 from the previous Monday and 11,616 below the same week last year.
Live and Feeder Cattle Futures Slide as Cash Trade Begins
Live cattle futures fell $3 to $3.50 in most contracts, while feeder cattle futures dropped $4.65 to $5.40 at the Thursday close. Cash trade kicked off with some $383 dressed in the North and $244 to $245 live, with southern bids at $245. The CME Feeder Cattle Index declined $1.62 to $373.17 on February 24. Beef export sales hit a six-week low of 12,902 metric tons in the week ending February 19, with Japan the top buyer at 4,500 metric tons. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice down $1.34 to $377.89 and Select up $3.72 to $370.79, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to $7.10.
USDA reopens Mexico cattle ports and imposes Canadian tariffs, reshaping Tyson Foods' supply
The USDA has decided to resume limited cattle imports from Mexico, reopening selected southern ports for U.S. processors including Tyson Foods, while also introducing new tariffs on Canadian goods that affect beef and related products. These measures influence Tyson Foods' access to cattle supply and the relative pricing of domestic versus imported meat products. The company, a major U.S. beef, pork, and poultry processor, faces changing conditions for sourcing animals and competing on U.S. shelves. Investors may watch for updates on how Tyson Foods adjusts its procurement mix and pricing as the new rules filter through supply contracts and retailer negotiations.
LIVECATTLE · Tariff · Negative New tariffs on Canadian goods may reduce Canadian cattle imports, tightening supply and supporting live cattle futures prices.
Live Cattle Futures Hit Expanded Limit Up on Tuesday
Live cattle futures will trade with expanded limits of $10.75 on Tuesday after front-month contracts surged the $7.25 limit higher on Monday, with other contracts up $6.35 to $7.17. Feeder cattle futures also posted $9.25 limit gains, and open interest rose by 1,156 contracts. Last week’s cash trade was reported at $225 to $230 in the north and $230 to $232 in the south, while Monday activity was quiet. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $1.86 to $344.37 on November 6, and the weekly OKC feeder cattle auction saw feeders steady to $5 lower with steer calves down $5 to $10. President Trump posted after Friday’s close that he has asked the DOJ to investigate meat packers for illicit collusion and price manipulation, which the market viewed more favorably than previous posts.
FEEDER · Regulation · Positive Same regulatory news supports feeder cattle futures as part of the cattle complex.
LIVECATTLE · Regulation · Positive President Trump's request for DOJ investigation into meat packers for collusion is viewed favorably by the market, supporting cattle prices.
Live and feeder cattle futures tumble on US-Mexico border reopening news
Live cattle futures fell $2.10 to $5.05 at midday Monday, while feeder cattle futures collapsed with losses of $7.75 to the $10.75 limit, after the USDA announced plans to resume imports of Mexican cattle through the Douglas, Arizona port of entry by August 23 and two additional New Mexico ports later. Cash trade last week was reported at $230 to $231 across the country, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $1.07 on July 23 to $349.65. The latest Cattle on Feed report showed June placements down 2.91% from a year ago at 1.399 million head, marketings 2.69% lower at 1.661 million head, and July 1 on-feed inventory up 2.21% versus 2025 at 11.37 million head, with heifers on feed at 4.25 million head representing 37.38% of the total, the lowest July ratio since 2018. Bi-annual inventory data indicated 28.45 million beef cows, down 0.7% year-over-year, while replacement beef heifers rose 2.9% to 3.6 million head and the 2026 calf crop was estimated 1.5% lower at 32.5 million head. USDA Cold Storage figures showed June 30 beef stocks tightening 3.43% from the end of May to 389.23 million pounds, down 2.76% from a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report revealed managed money slashed 20,961 contracts from their net long in live cattle futures and options to 75,363 contracts, and spec funds cut 1,975 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle to 7,905 contracts as of July 21. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice boxes up $1.72 at $362.96 and Select a quarter lower at $346.46, while federally inspected cattle slaughter last week totaled 528,000 head, up 3,000 from the prior week but 15,766 below the same week last year.
Brazilian Beef Import Quota Down to 20%, Downstream Restaurants and Supermarkets Under Pressure to Find Alternatives
As of July 21, beef imports from Brazil have reached 80% of this year's allocated quota, and the quota may be exhausted within the next one to two months, triggering an additional 55% tariff. Recently, Brazilian beef prices have risen by about 2 yuan per kilogram, while Australian beef, which was previously hit with extra tariffs, has seen overall price increases of around 20 yuan per kilogram, with some supermarket Australian beef products up 17% to 30%. Cost pressures are being passed downstream. Supermarkets like RT-Mart have started sourcing domestic fresh beef as well as beef from Argentina and New Zealand to replenish stocks. Some restaurant chains plan to switch to Uruguayan or local beef, but high-quality beef dishes are hard to replace in the short term, and some restaurants are considering adjusting menus to reduce the proportion of beef items. The domestic beef industry is getting a buffer period. In 2025, China's beef output was 8.01 million tonnes, with 2.8 million tonnes of imported beef. Imported beef accounts for nearly a quarter of the domestic market share. Among this, imports from Brazil amounted to 56.29 billion yuan, making up about 50% of total beef import value.
Live and feeder cattle futures extend losses on Thursday
Live cattle futures closed Thursday with contracts down $2.35 to $3.05, while feeder cattle futures fell $3.35 to $4.40. Cash trade picked up with a few light northern sales at $378 to $380 dressed and live action reported at $238 to $240, with Southern trade at $237 to $238. The CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped $3.55 on July 15 to $365.52. USDA export sales data showed beef sales for 2026 at 7,973 metric tons for the week ending July 9, the fourth lowest total for the calendar year, while shipments of 10,354 metric tons marked a calendar year low. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with Choice boxes down $2.90 at $369.34 and Select $3.49 lower to $355.69. Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Tuesday was 109,000 head, bringing the week-to-date total to 433,000 head, up 3,000 from the previous week but 29,283 below the same week last year.
FEEDER · Demand · Negative Feeder cattle index dropped and wholesale boxed beef prices fell, reflecting weak demand and lower cash trade.
LIVECATTLE · Demand · Negative USDA export sales data showed beef sales at fourth lowest total for 2026 and shipments at calendar year low, indicating weak demand.
Live cattle futures are trading sharply lower at midday on Thursday, with several contract months down $3 per hundredweight or more, while feeder cattle futures are down over $5 after the U.S. Trade Representative exempted Brazilian beef from a new 25% tariff proposal. Cash trade began to pick up, with a few light northern sales at $378 to $380 dressed and live action reported at $235 to $240 by the USDA. Export sales data showed beef sales for 2026 at 7,973 metric tons for the week ending July 9, the fourth lowest total for the calendar year, while shipments of 10,354 metric tons marked a calendar year low. Wholesale boxed beef prices declined, with Choice boxes down $1.94 to $369.34 and Select $1.22 lower to $357.96. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $1.25 on July 14 to $369.07.
Argentine ranchers raise heavier cattle for export boom
Argentine ranchers are raising heavier cattle to capitalize on higher global beef prices and new trade deals, with one analyst forecasting a 50% rise in exports over the next four years. Cattle producer Guillermo Del Barrio said his feedlot now sends animals to slaughter at around 550 kilograms, up from 300 kilograms previously. Shipments to the United States surged 158% in the first five months of the year to 41,770 metric tons, totaling $348 million, according to the Argentine beef promotion institute IPCVA. Export revenues jumped 44.7% to $1.83 billion in the same period, while the average price of live steers climbed more than a fifth to about $2.80 per kilogram. The industry expects the export share of production to rise from about 30% to 40% in the coming years, potentially exceeding 1.5 million metric tons from 2029 or 2030 onward.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Positive Article describes increased cattle weights and export boom, indicating higher supply and demand for live cattle, which is positive for futures.
Live Cattle Futures Drop $6 This Week, Feeders Fall Sharply
Live cattle futures fell $2 to $2.30 on Friday, with the October contract losing $6 for the week. Cash trade settled at $240, down $2 from the prior week. Feeder cattle futures tumbled $4.82 to $7.25 in the front months, and the September contract was down $9.42 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped 40 cents to $363.08 on September 11. Managed money added 561 contracts to their net long in live cattle futures and options, reaching 131,003 contracts, while speculators cut 2,739 contracts from their net long in feeder cattle, reducing it to 25,636 contracts. USDA Choice boxed beef dropped 75 cents to $400.04 and Select fell $1.51 to $378.44, with the Choice-Select spread at $21.60. Weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 561,000 head, down 62,990 from the same week in 2024.
FEEDER · Supply · Negative Feeder cattle futures tumbled $4.82-$7.25 in front months, with September contract down $9.42 on the week, reflecting weak demand or ample supply.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Negative Live cattle futures fell $2-$2.30 on Friday, with October contract down $6 for the week, indicating bearish supply/demand balance.
Skylark Meats to permanently close Omaha beef plant, cutting 218 jobs
Skylark Meats, part of American Foods Group, will permanently close its entire Omaha, Nebraska beef processing plant at 4430 South 110th Street, resulting in 218 layoffs effective August 25, 2026. The affected workers are not unionized and lack bumping rights, though the company is encouraging them to apply at affiliated facilities. The largest job cuts are in general labor, with 72 positions eliminated, alongside roles in cutting, forklift operation, maintenance, quality assurance, and management. This closure adds to a wave of Nebraska food manufacturing layoffs, following WK Kellogg’s 451-job cut in Omaha and over 3,500 cuts by Tyson Foods in Lexington, totaling more than 4,000 lost positions since late 2025. The shutdown comes amid tight cattle supplies and rising beef prices, with USDA forecasting a 7.5% increase in beef and veal prices for 2026.
American Foods Group · Supply · Negative American Foods Group is the parent company of Skylark Meats, which is permanently closing its Omaha plant, cutting 218 jobs.
Skylark Meats · Supply · Negative Skylark Meats is permanently closing its Omaha beef plant, resulting in 218 layoffs.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Negative The article cites tight cattle supplies and rising beef prices, which are negative for live cattle futures as supply constraints pressure prices.
TSN · Supply · Negative Tyson Foods is mentioned as having cut over 3,500 jobs in Lexington, part of the same wave of layoffs amid tight cattle supplies.
Kraft Heinz bet inflation peaked, but record cookout costs challenge $600 million turnaround
Kraft Heinz's $600 million brand investment plan, launched after halting a corporate breakup in February, rests on the assumption that commodity inflation has peaked, but new data from the American Farm Bureau Federation shows a July 4 cookout for 10 people will cost a record $73.82 this year. Ground beef, central to the company's meats portfolio, hit its highest price ever at $14.06 for two pounds, up 5.5% from last year, driven by a cattle herd trending toward a 70-year low. Pork and beans jumped 13.8% to $3.06 due to rising aluminum costs, and strawberries climbed 12.4% to $5.27 after a Florida frost. CFO Andre Maciel told analysts on May 6 that inflation had peaked for coffee and meats, but the AFBF data suggests cost relief may not arrive on schedule, threatening a repeat of 2025 when adjusted operating income fell 15.9% to $1.2 billion. With Kroger's private-label sales outpacing national brands by 175 basis points in its latest quarter, consumers are increasingly trading down, raising the stakes for Kraft Heinz's second-quarter earnings report in early August.
KHC · Pricing · Negative Record cookout costs driven by higher ground beef, pork, and strawberry prices challenge Kraft Heinz's assumption that inflation has peaked, threatening its turnaround plan.
KHC · Supply · Negative Record cookout costs driven by high ground beef and other input prices challenge assumption that inflation has peaked, threatening turnaround plan.
LIVECATTLE · Supply · Positive Cattle herd trending toward 70-year low drives ground beef prices to record high, positive for cattle futures.
ALUMINUM · Supply · Positive Rising aluminum costs cited as driver of higher pork and beans prices, positive for aluminum futures.
KR · Demand · Positive Kroger's private-label sales outpacing national brands by 175 bps indicates consumers trading down, benefiting Kroger.
Cattle Prices Likely Just Topped Out, Analyst Says
October live cattle futures may have reached a near-term top, with Monday's price action negating an uptrend and signaling a potential selling opportunity. A move below chart support at $236.00 would strengthen the bearish case, targeting a downside objective of $210.00 or lower, while technical resistance sits at the contract high of $246.55. Elevated beef prices and high gasoline costs could shift consumer demand toward cheaper proteins like pork and poultry, especially as BLT season approaches.
Barchart AI Market Analyst CARL Sees Bearish Corn and Soybeans, Bullish Cattle
Barchart's new AI market analyst, CARL, assessed major agricultural markets as predominantly bearish for grains but structurally bullish for U.S. cattle. In an interview, CARL stated that corn is in a strong technical downtrend and fundamentally bearish due to massive production forecasts, growing ending stocks, and favorable crop weather. Soybeans are similarly locked in a medium-term technical downtrend and fundamentally bearish, though domestic crush demand for biofuels provides a cushion. CARL noted that global wheat supplies remain secure despite some tightening, while the U.S. cattle and beef markets are long-term bullish with cash live cattle testing cyclical peaks around $258 to $260 per hundredweight, potentially spiking to $265 to $270. On the question of whether December 2026 corn futures could reach $5.00, CARL assigned a low to moderate probability, requiring a major supply shock.
CORN · Supply · Negative Massive production forecasts, growing ending stocks, and favorable crop weather create bearish fundamentals for corn.
LIVECATTLE · Demand · Positive U.S. cattle and beef markets are long-term bullish with cash live cattle testing cyclical peaks and potential to spike higher.
SOYBEAN · Demand · Negative Soybeans are fundamentally bearish due to technical downtrend, though domestic crush demand for biofuels provides a cushion.
WHEAT · Supply · Neutral Global wheat supplies remain secure despite some tightening, with no strong directional signal.
Cattle on Feed Report Shows February Placements Down 17.78%
The monthly Cattle on Feed report showed February placements at 1.554 million head, down 17.78% from last year and below the average trade estimate. February marketings were down 8.92% at 1.663 million head, while March 1 on feed data came in at 11.577 million head, down 2.2% compared to the level last year and below the estimate of a 1.7% decline. Live cattle futures fell into the Friday close, with nearby losses of $1.52 to $2.47, as traders lightened up ahead of the report. Cash trade was on the move, up $7 to $8 from last week in the South at $210, while Northern business came in at $212 to $216, a $6 to $9 improvement week over week. Feeder cattle futures also pulled back, closing down $1.87 to $4, though March was still up $4.50 on the week.
U.S. dairy replacement heifer inventories to shrink further in 2026 before rebounding in 2027
U.S. dairy replacement heifer supplies are projected to shrink even further in 2026 before beginning to rebound in 2027, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. The number of heifers available to enter the milking herd has fallen to the lowest level since 1978, as strong financial incentives prompt dairy farmers to produce calves destined for the beef supply rather than milk production. CoBank’s modeling indicates that dairy replacements entering the milking herd between last year and this year are shrinking by a combined 796,000 head, followed by a rebound of 360,200 head in 2027 and 2028. With replacements in short supply, producers are retaining adult dairy cows that would have typically been culled, contributing to the overall increase in the U.S. dairy herd, while heifer prices have surged well over $3,000 per head. The shift is driven by record beef cattle prices amid a 75-year low in the U.S. beef herd, with 82.7% of all U.S. beef semen units purchased by dairy operations in 2025.
Live Cattle Futures Rally Sharply as Beef Approaches $400
Live cattle futures surged on Tuesday, with contracts closing $3.60 to $5.95 higher amid new buying interest that added 4,735 contracts. Cash trade has yet to develop this week after ranging mostly $255 to $258 last week, while feeder cattle futures rallied $5.32 to $6.87 across most contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose $1.33 to $364.00 on June 12. Wholesale boxed beef prices climbed in the Tuesday afternoon report, with Choice boxes up $4.53 to $399.58 per hundredweight and Select 44 cents higher at $376.85, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to $22.73. Traders now look to Wednesday’s activity and Thursday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report, where May placements are expected down 5.5% from a year ago, marketings seen down 10.6%, and June 1 on-feed totals projected 2.5% larger than last year.
