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Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, confirmed his country's readiness to confront the United States up to the level of a "doomsday war," but said it still keeps the diplomatic channel open so as not to miss an opportunity to build peace, amid a state of war between the two countries that has flared intermittently since February 28, affecting global oil markets, driving gasoline prices sharply higher and intensifying inflation. Araghchi made the remarks in an interview on NBC News' Meet the Press on Sunday, September 27, after the United Nations General Assembly concluded the previous week, saying there was no reason for Iran to return to diplomacy, but that he was still trying to use diplomacy because the opportunity to build peace should not be missed, and stressing that Iran is as ready to negotiate as it is to face any challenge. Earlier, on Friday, September 25, Araghchi proposed reopening shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and reviving nuclear talks with the United States within seven days if the Trump administration accepted Iran's conditions. However, recently US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal, which could have led to the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, with Iran heavily obstructing shipping through the strait as the conflict erupted, limiting oil and natural gas exports out of the Persian Gulf. In addition, The Wall Street Journal also reported that, beyond rejecting the deal, Trump said he expected to resume bombing Tehran after the US midterm elections in November.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 700,000-barrel decline. Meanwhile, crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures contracts, increased by 2.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels last week, while analysts had expected an increase of 100,000 barrels. Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, declined by 428,000 barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations of a 600,000-barrel drop.

Talk of a U.S. ban on diesel exports is gaining political traction, but FreightWaves energy reporter John Kingston warns the policy could create sharply uneven regional outcomes and trigger refinery run cuts that reduce overall fuel supply. The discussion comes as diesel futures swung through a 25-cent range in a single session, a move Kingston attributed in part to President Trump's remarks at the United Nations about potentially annihilating Iran, the world's fourth or fifth largest oil producer. Kingston said the structural problem is the country's regional supply imbalance: New England has no nearby refineries and depends heavily on imports from Europe, so banning U.S. exports would tighten European supply and make those imports more expensive or scarce, while the Colonial Pipeline from the Gulf Coast to New York Harbor is likely already at full capacity. The West Coast faces a similar problem because Gulf Coast diesel cannot reach it easily without transiting the Panama Canal, and tanker rates are currently off the charts. A ban would also remove a key incentive for refiners to keep output high, prompting run cuts that would reduce supplies of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil simultaneously, with seasonal maintenance compounding the effect. JPMorgan's commodity research team said last week it sees no resolution to elevated energy prices, noting that $100 Brent crude, $4 gasoline, and a 5-handle on the 10-year Treasury yield failed to shift administration policy. On the regulatory front, Kingston noted the federal government has issued a first-of-its-kind nationwide hours-of-service waiver for fuel haulers, the first since the COVID-era waiver that ran more than a year and a half.

Exxon Mobil's 275,000-barrel-per-day Joliet refinery remained shut on Friday, leaving a meaningful slice of Midwest refining capacity on the sidelines. The Illinois plant first lost power and then faced a second operational problem when floodwater overwhelmed a pump; electricity has since returned, but Exxon has not said the two incidents were directly connected and has yet to give a firm timetable for restarting the facility. A containment boom was deployed as cleanup work continued. The refinery can turn out roughly 11 million gallons of gasoline and diesel each day, though inventories and pipeline flows can absorb part of that missing production in the short run, so the 275,000 barrels per day of offline capacity does not automatically translate into a same-sized supply shortage. With Midwest fuel prices already elevated, a prolonged shutdown would steadily remove another layer of flexibility from the regional market. Exxon shares traded at $162.69, about 27.09% above the GuruFocus GF Value estimate of $128.01.

JPMorgan has officially announced that it is abandoning and can no longer construct a core forecasting framework for the direction of oil prices. Since the war erupted, this reflects that the Middle East conflict has reached a point beyond assessment, as the economic assumptions once anticipated have been entirely destroyed. Analysts had previously believed that macroeconomic pressure would force the United States to find a way to end the fighting, but as oil prices surged past 100 dollars per barrel, gasoline approached 5 dollars per gallon, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed above 5%, the administration of President Donald Trump and the opposing parties still showed no sign of backing down, dragging the war into its seventh month with no exit or clear strategic plan. As a result, Brent crude remains elevated at around 106 dollars per barrel, while its true fundamental value should be only about 90 dollars. Supply-side risks are intensifying and widening, not only through the blocking of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz but also extending to threats in the Red Sea near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as well as attacks on Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline infrastructure and on Russian refineries in Eastern Europe that have been hit continuously. However, oil prices have not spiked as severely as feared, because global oil demand has fallen by about 4.4 million barrels per day, and governments and the private sector have together drawn down inventories, allowing the market to absorb the shock of roughly 10 million barrels per day in lost supply. But these buffers are shrinking rapidly with each passing day. If the conflict continues without any sign of positive diplomatic negotiations, the world may face a new wave of energy price shocks more severe than before during the coming winter, when fuel demand surges seasonally.

Chevron chairman and chief executive Mike Wirth said publicly that he does not see how oil prices come down quickly, warning that the mechanisms that absorbed the earlier oil supply shock have largely been used up and that risks remain to the upside over the next few months. Speaking at a University of Texas at Austin energy conference on September 11, Wirth said strategic reserve releases, commercial inventory drawdowns and eased restrictions on sanctioned crude stored at sea had all played out, and the loss of flexibility became more acute after attacks knocked out a major Saudi crude pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, putting an estimated 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in limbo. The average U.S. diesel price crossed $6 per gallon for the first time on September 10 and had hit a record $6.23 a gallon by the time Wirth spoke, while gasoline was back up to about $4.32 a gallon after slipping below $4 during the summer. Brent crude for November 2026 delivery traded near $105 a barrel around the conference and West Texas Intermediate was just above $100, up about 50% from roughly $70 before the Iran war started in late February, with China's return to the international market adding demand pressure. President Trump said on September 9 that oil prices would come down right after the election, tying the timeline to the November midterms, while Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has called the latest supply disruption temporary and pointed to expanded Venezuelan output and U.S. refining capacity as near-term offsets.

Diesel prices have hit an all-time high of 644 and gasoline is about 10 cents off its May peak, raising the question of whether energy costs will start shocking company earnings. JB Hunt warned earlier this week that its bottom line is being hit by the swift rise in diesel prices, saying it expects a quarter-to-quarter profit decline of 5 to 10 percent because pricing cannot be adjusted quickly enough. PNC Asset Management Group CIO Amanda Agati said she does not expect energy costs to crack the trajectory of earnings growth, noting positive revisions coming into the end of the third quarter remain positive and largely broad-based. Agati said companies are scrambling to hedge in this environment and that margins have been impressive for years, but warned that if energy prices remain elevated a year from now, the story would be very different. The discussion comes as diesel sits just pennies away from an adjusted inflation record.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced on the 16th that the retail price of regular gasoline per liter stood at a national average of 169.90 yen as of the 14th, down 10 sen from the previous week. The subsidy that keeps prices around 170 yen is having a major effect. The subsidy, decided based on the projected price for the following week, will rise to a record 51 yen from the 17th. Reflecting recent high crude oil prices, the subsidy amount is up from 36 yen through the 16th, surpassing the previous record of 49.80 yen set in early April. Because no survey will be conducted next week due to the holiday period, payments at the record level will continue through the 30th.

The Oil Fuel Fund Management Committee has resolved to raise retail prices of all fuel types by 0.85 baht per litre, effective from 15 September 2026 onwards, after global oil prices continued to climb amid prolonged geopolitical tensions, particularly the protracted situation in the Middle East. The key factor stems from attacks on oil tankers along major shipping routes in the Middle East, combined with stalled international negotiations, which have reduced accumulated crude oil production capacity in global markets and the Persian Gulf region by several million barrels per day. At the same time, global oil reserves have continued to decline, pushing the market into a state of tight supply, while refining capacity bottlenecks have compounded the situation, driving refining margins to record highs. Most recently, diesel prices in the Singapore market on 14 September 2026 rose above 195 US dollars per barrel, while gasoline prices stood at approximately 147 US dollars per barrel. This has directly affected the liquidity of the Oil Fuel Fund, which currently bears the burden of fuel price subsidies of approximately 770 million baht per day. The committee therefore found it necessary to reduce the fund's burden in order to preserve liquidity and enhance its ability to safeguard domestic energy price stability over the long term. For the diesel group, ordinary high-speed diesel will see its subsidy rate increased by a further 1.08 baht per litre to 9.83 baht per litre, with a retail price of 40.69 baht per litre. High-speed diesel B20 will see its subsidy rate increased by 0.88 baht per litre to 13.50 baht per litre, with a retail price of 35.69 baht per litre. Premium diesel will be subject to a fund contribution rate of 1.50 baht per litre. For the gasoline and gasohol group, gasoline will see its fund contribution increased by a further 0.08 baht per litre to 2.56 baht per litre, with a retail price of 48.93 baht per litre. Gasohol 95 will see its subsidy rate reduced by 0.14 baht per litre to 4.10 baht per litre, with a retail price of 39.94 baht per litre. Gasohol 91 will see its subsidy rate reduced by 0.14 baht per litre to 4.10 baht per litre, with a retail price of 39.57 baht per litre. Gasohol E20 will see its subsidy rate reduced by 0.21 baht per litre to 7.22 baht per litre, with a retail price of 34.94 baht per litre, and gasohol E85 will see its subsidy rate reduced by 0.62 baht per litre to 2.50 baht per litre, with a retail price of 30.88 baht per litre. The committee confirmed it will closely monitor global oil price developments and stands ready to use the Oil Fuel Fund mechanism to maintain domestic retail price stability at an appropriate level. It also asked for cooperation from the public and all sectors in conserving energy and using it only as necessary, in order to reduce expenses and lessen dependence on imported fuel during this period of high volatility in global energy markets.

The Kremlin has welcomed President Donald Trump's call for Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any call for Ukraine to halt strikes on civilian economic infrastructure should be welcomed, and that every country can use its influence over Ukraine to encourage greater flexibility, which is an important part of helping advance the peace process. Trump posted on Truth Social that Ukraine had agreed not to strike Russian energy targets and that Russia had agreed to do the same. On Sunday, Trump urged Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries, saying the strikes were causing diesel shortages. Earlier, the Russian government announced a temporary ban on exports of gasoline, diesel, marine fuel and gasoil to stabilise the domestic fuel market.

Prediction market traders expect U.S. gasoline prices to set fresh highs for the year, with Kalshi pricing a 71% chance that the national average tops $4.60 in 2026. Gas prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA's national average, and U.S. oil prices are again above $100 per barrel. Kalshi speculators also place 57% odds that prices will top $4.80 a gallon and just over a 40% chance that they cross $5.00, a level last reached as a record high of just over $5 per gallon in June 2022. Contracts on the platform ask traders whether gas prices will cross various price points and are resolved using AAA's data. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have put the status of the Strait of Hormuz in doubt, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude futures up 3.5% on Monday to more than $103 per barrel, and Kalshi traders place 50-50 odds that gas prices will be above $4.25 per gallon on election day, Nov. 3.

California's statewide average diesel price hit a record $8.14 a gallon and the national average crossed $6.20 a gallon for the first time after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline over the weekend, an outage Reuters put at roughly 4% of global oil supply. Brent closed at $109.51 a barrel on September 9, up from $68.53 on July 2, while West Texas Intermediate sits at $103.50 a barrel, up 22.3% in a month. The pipeline was the intended workaround for the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries nearly a fifth of global oil and has been effectively shut since a late-February conflict; the Energy Information Administration's May outlook assumed Middle East producers shut in 10.5 million barrels per day in April, with peak shut-ins near 10.8 million b/d in May, and the Red Sea corridor has also tightened after Houthi forces seized a key island in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Regular gasoline averaged $4.16 a gallon on September 7, up from $3.78 on July 6, while University of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 55.2 and retail sales fell 0.6% in July to $763.6 billion. Diesel costs roll into groceries, shipping and construction bids within six to ten weeks, and analysts warn that a national average above $6.50 could trigger trucking bankruptcies and a political fight over releasing distillate from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve before winter.

Americans have spent $109.2 billion more on gasoline and diesel since March 1 than in the same period a year earlier, a gap that is widening by roughly $730 million a day, according to GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan. The surge followed U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on 28 February 2026 and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries more than 100 vessels a day and about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $97.26 per barrel on September 9, 2026, up 16.1% from a month earlier, while the U.S. retail gasoline average reached $4.16 per gallon in the week ending September 7, up from $2.78 in mid-January. Diesel has crossed $6 a gallon nationally for the first time on record, with 28 states setting all-time highs and five California stations printing $9.999 a gallon, the highest their pumps can display. The figure is a GasBuddy estimate using its own methodology, not a federal statistic, and has not been independently audited.

President Donald Trump signalled on Sunday that the United States may keep its forces in Iran and hold on to its oil, drawing a comparison with the US taking control of a quarter of Venezuela's vast oil reserves. During a trip to Ireland for a conference and to watch the Irish Open golf tournament, Trump reiterated that he still expects the Iran war to end this year, possibly right after the US midterm elections in November, and added that gasoline prices will drop like a rock the moment the war ends. He said he would only make the right deals and would not accept a deal that offers no benefit, claiming that Iran has been calling repeatedly to seek peace talks, an assertion Tehran has denied in the past. Meanwhile, turmoil in the Middle East has continued to roil markets, with oil shippers expecting prices to rise again on Monday after an attack on a pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

Brent Crude topped $100 per barrel for the first time since July and WTI Crude also exceeded $100 a barrel this week, sharply raising the odds of a Fed interest rate hike next week and re-launching the recession conversation for the first time since the early weeks of the Iran war. The CME FedWatch gauge showed traders putting the chances of a 0.25-basis point hike at next week's Fed meeting at 72.4% as of September 10, up from 49.4% a week earlier. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius told Yahoo Finance the bank has scaled back its 12-month recession risk estimate to 15% from about 30% in March, but would raise it again if another shock hits, and said its roughly 1.5% second-half GDP growth projection does not build in another major shock. Diesel, the main fuel of the economy, has just hit a $6 per gallon average in the United States for the first time ever, after breaking the all-time record of $5.85 last week, while U.S. gasoline prices are at a record high for this time of year. The cushions that kept the oil market subdued since March have largely vanished: U.S. crude stocks in the strategic reserve are at their lowest level since the early 1980s, China has eased restrictions on fuel exports and returned to buying more crude with imports rebounding from the decade-low seen in June, and crude flows from the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to an estimated half to two-thirds of pre-war levels while fuel supply remains severely limited.

The Fuel Fund Management Committee, known as the Oil Fund Board, has approved a resolution to freeze retail prices of all types of fuel in order to ease the impact on the public's cost of living, amid pressure from rapidly rising global oil prices. In the Singapore market on September 11, 2026, diesel surged to 191.91 US dollars per barrel, while gasoline rose to about 148 US dollars per barrel. The key factor is intensifying geopolitical tension in the Middle East, particularly attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which have driven up shipping and vessel insurance costs, while oil supply in the market was already tight due to production limits by major producers. The Oil Fund Board is still considering additional measures to help manage domestic retail fuel prices and is asking all sectors to cooperate in using energy efficiently.

China's National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, announced that China will raise retail prices for gasoline and diesel, effective tomorrow, in line with movements in global crude oil prices. China will raise gasoline prices by 260 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 250 yuan per ton. Under the current mechanism, China adjusts fuel prices every 10 working days whenever global crude oil prices change.

Oil prices crossed back over $100 per barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. US Central Command struck five Iranian crude oil tankers, the second such attack in two days, while Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Russia-Ukraine war also threaten supply. Although crude oil is still flowing through pipelines and dark transfers, with Strait of Hormuz volumes at two-thirds of pre-war levels, refineries are already running near capacity, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have cut into diesel exports. As a result, US gasoline prices hit all-time highs for Labor Day, and diesel prices are approaching $6 for the first time ever. The impact on consumers could be twofold: higher inflation may push the Fed to hike rates, and consumers may adapt by reducing travel and spending.

The price gap between oil products and crude oil, known as the 'crack spread,' has surged sharply, drawing attention from central bankers monitoring inflation trends. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on the 8th that he is focusing more on the rapid widening of the crack spread than on crude oil prices themselves, and economists, including those at the European Central Bank (ECB), have increasingly emphasized watching oil product prices. The background is that the Iran war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have led to the loss of several million barrels per day of oil refining capacity, causing fuel prices to spike. In Europe, gasoline and diesel pump prices have exceeded $370 per barrel equivalent, and the ECB pointed out in late July the inflation risks stemming from refining capacity constraints. Vanguard Asset Management revealed in August that it is hedging against the risk of prolonged US inflation, and US President Trump has urged domestic oil refiners to increase production. According to Bloomberg data, European diesel futures on the 9th were about $75 per barrel higher than North Sea Brent crude, widening from about $21 on January 2. The Bank of England estimates that rising energy prices will push up the CPI inflation rate by about 0.4 percentage points in the second half of this year.

Brown University released real-time estimates on Monday showing that the Iran war has cost American consumers an additional $100 billion in energy expenses, with the figure increasing by about $1 million every two minutes. The Watson Institute's Iran War Energy Cost Tracker indicated that higher gasoline and diesel prices have added over $760 in costs for the average US household since the war began on February 28. Meanwhile, data from the American Automobile Association showed that the national average diesel price surged to a record high of $5.90 per gallon on Monday, surpassing the previous record of $5.85 set just on Friday. Texas has borne the largest burden, with consumers paying about $11 billion more for fuel, followed by California at approximately $8 billion and Florida at about $5 billion. The tracker also showed that consumers now expect prices to remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated, as higher energy costs have increased shipping expenses, and some businesses have already passed those costs on to consumers.

PTT Public Company Limited reported the oil market situation for the week of September 7-11, 2026, with Brent crude averaging $94.51 per barrel, up $5.23, while West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $89.95, up $6.64, and Dubai crude at $100.28, up $7.96. The key factor was Iran's announcement to expand its shipping restriction zone to cover the Persian Gulf and beyond the Strait of Hormuz, following a U.S. attack on three Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in retaliation for Iran's missile strikes on a U.S. warship. Additionally, seven OPEC+ member countries agreed to maintain production levels in October after completing compensatory production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Ukraine attacked Russia's Ryazan refinery with drones, leading Russia to ban exports of refined products and require gasoline imports.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) reported that US diesel prices surged to a record high of $5.9015 per gallon today, up 30 cents from last week and higher than the $3.71 level a year ago, as the war between the US and Iran has damaged refineries in the Arabian Gulf and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge in prices is putting pressure on President Donald Trump ahead of the November midterm elections and is a burden on farmers and trucking companies, which may pass the costs on to consumers. Meanwhile, the average gasoline price stands at $4.15 per gallon, up from $3.20 a year ago, with California at $5.86 and Arizona at $4.54 per gallon.

In the United States, as the war in the Middle East pushes up energy costs, gasoline prices are expected to reach their highest level for this time of year during the Labor Day holiday on the 7th. According to Patrick DeHaan, an analyst at fuel price information company GasBuddy, the national average gasoline price on Labor Day is likely to reach $4.03 per gallon, significantly surpassing the previous record for Labor Day of $3.83 set in 2012. GasBuddy reports that the national average gasoline price was about $4.13 per gallon as of the 3rd, about $1 higher than the average for the same period last year. Analysts point out that $4 per gallon is a psychological threshold for many consumers. Gasoline prices are one of the most visible economic indicators for U.S. consumers and can quickly influence perceptions of the overall economy. With prices remaining above $4 per gallon for most of the year, this issue has become a persistent concern for President Trump and the Republican Party. Trump has pledged to lower energy costs and has intensified criticism of oil refiners and fuel retailers in recent weeks. Quan Dossmaratov, a research analyst at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, notes that the high gasoline prices are primarily a supply-side issue. Both crude oil prices and refining margins have risen due to concerns that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted. Meanwhile, attacks on Russian refineries have tightened overall fuel inventories. U.S. refinery utilization has reached 98%, the highest level since 2018, and the government has already extended waivers of the Jones Act and ended summer gasoline regulations early to curb prices. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels last week to 205.7 million barrels, below the five-year average of 217.6 million barrels for August. Other petroleum product prices have also surged, with U.S. diesel prices hitting a new record high this week. Additionally, according to AAA, airfare prices during the Labor Day period are expected to be 20% higher than last year.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, while analysts had expected a decline of only 400,000 barrels. Crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for US crude oil futures, increased by 80,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels, less than the 1.9 million barrel decline analysts had anticipated. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 796,000 barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decrease.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged that U.S. sanctions are severely impacting the economy, with oil trade down 25%-35% and fuel shortages worsening. In an interview with Tasnim News, he cited inflation, unemployment, and trade restrictions, saying, "We have many problems…but the people are with us." He noted that a naval blockade is preventing imports, including gasoline, leading to long queues at gas stations. Pezeshkian estimated that imports have fallen even more sharply than exports, and he warned that military strength cannot compensate for a loss of national unity. The U.S. has tightened financial pressure by targeting a shadow-banking network accused of moving $1.8 billion through 103 companies to help Iran evade sanctions. Iran faces inflation above 80%, food prices up 100%, and a projected 6.1% economic contraction, according to the IMF, with over 1 million jobs lost by late May. The U.S. military also cleared Iranian sea mines from the Strait of Hormuz and struck two Iranian launchers, prompting Iranian missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan, which were intercepted without casualties.

The Fuel Oil Fund Management Committee (กบน.) has resolved to raise retail prices for all types of fuel, with diesel increasing by 0.75 baht per liter and gasoline and gasohol by 0.60 baht per liter, effective from September 2, 2026, following a surge in global oil prices due to tensions between the United States and Iran. Singapore diesel reached $164 per barrel and gasoline $123 per barrel, forcing the fuel fund to compensate 357 million baht per day. This adjustment includes an increase in the compensation rate for regular diesel by 0.27 baht per liter to 5.00 baht per liter, resulting in a retail price of 39.14 baht per liter. Meanwhile, gasoline's collection rate increased by 0.09 baht per liter to 6.14 baht per liter, with a retail price of 47.28 baht per liter. For gasohol 95 and 91, the compensation rate was reduced by 0.14 baht per liter to 0.98 baht per liter, with prices at 38.29 and 37.92 baht per liter, respectively.

Yoshikazu Kobayashi, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, pointed out that with the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continuing due to the US-Iran military conflict, Japan's oil stockpiles, which exceed 250 days, have been able to be released promptly, buying time to secure alternative sources of supply. He also noted that the fact that the power generation mix is almost entirely independent of oil is significant. Regarding the government's gasoline subsidies, he assessed that they have had the effect of curbing social unrest, but emphasized that it is difficult to cover all of Japan's demand with non-Middle Eastern sources, and that in the medium to long term, investment in facilities capable of processing non-Middle Eastern crude is necessary. Furthermore, he stated that for naphtha as well, reserves sufficient to buy time to secure alternative supply sources in the event of a supply halt are needed, and that since crude oil has quality degradation issues, consideration should be given to gradually replacing it.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's economic symposium, the Jackson Hole Meeting, will be held from the 27th to the 29th in Wyoming, where newly appointed Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first speech on the 28th. The latest July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4%, slowing for the second consecutive month, but the Trump administration's intensified sanctions on Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept gasoline prices elevated, fueling early rate hike speculation. Additionally, concerns over fiscal deficits and prolonged inflation, along with increased funding demand from the AI boom, pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of over 5.3% last week. Bank of America warned that if the speech does not address measures to curb inflation, the 30-year yield could surge to 5.5%. With the focus on whether a September rate hike will occur, Warsh's remarks have added to policy uncertainty, and the market is watching whether he will mention a review of communication methods.