Birkenstock Holding plc

Investor Michael Burry said he has increased short positions in Micron Technology, Nebius Group, Palantir Technologies and the iShares Semiconductor ETF, warning that the semiconductor and artificial intelligence boom may not be as durable as investors expect. In a Sept. 22 Substack post, Burry said he added to the bearish positions in some size, pointing to memory supply as a key part of his argument. He highlighted comments from Acer CEO Jason Chen, who challenged expectations for a prolonged shortage, saying some components including LPDDR5 and DDR5 9600 remain tight while DDR4 faces oversupply with more sellers than buyers. Burry said those comments align with his view that rising chip production could eventually pressure memory prices, which matters for Micron because the company has benefited from strong demand for memory used in AI infrastructure. He also added to positions in QXO, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Sprouts Farmers Market, Birkenstock and MercadoLibre, saying those stocks had corrected tremendously and appeared attractive, and criticized the Nasdaq-100 as historically overvalued and top-heavy. The next catalyst is Micron's upcoming results, which should provide a clearer read on memory pricing, demand and the pace at which new supply is entering the market.

Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the U.S. housing collapse, has increased his stake in Birkenstock Holding to 5.2%, betting on a brand he has worn since 1987. Birkenstock reported €720 million in fiscal third-quarter revenue, up 13% year-over-year, and raised its full-year growth forecast, with direct-to-consumer sales rising 14% and business-to-business revenue up 13%. The company completed a €230 million accelerated share buyback in the quarter, reducing its share count by nearly 6 million shares, despite a gross margin decline to 59.1% from 60.5% and a 15% drop in net profit to €110 million. Burry added to his position when shares dipped below $35, and the stock is down about 17% this year, even as analysts like Telsey Advisory Group and Bernstein have raised their price targets to $50 and $55, respectively.

Birkenstock stock jumped 6.6% in pre-market trading, staging a strong recovery from levels close to its 52-week low as investors reconsidered the footwear company's valuation following heavy selling earlier in August. The advance appears to reflect renewed attention on Birkenstock's underlying financial performance rather than a single new announcement, after the shares had come under pressure from a sizeable secondary offering and subsequent profit-taking. The company's third-quarter FY2026 results, released the previous week, showed revenue of €719.5 million, exceeding analyst expectations, while management increased its full-year 2026 constant-currency revenue growth forecast to 15% and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance. Although earnings per share came in slightly below consensus estimates, investors were encouraged by the revenue beat, growth across multiple geographic regions, and the improved full-year outlook, with the accelerated share repurchase programme providing another potential source of support. Wall Street sentiment remains broadly positive, with the analyst consensus carrying a Strong Buy designation and a median price target substantially above the current share price, while Goldman Sachs, Stifel, William Blair and JPMorgan have reiterated or initiated Buy-equivalent recommendations in recent weeks.

Alibaba's U.S.-listed shares dropped 3.4% in premarket trading after the Chinese e-commerce giant launched a $10.2 billion share sale at a steep discount to fund its AI investments. The move added to broader investor unease over how AI spending is straining hyperscalers' free cash flow. Most chipmakers declined, with Sandisk down 5%, Seagate off 3.2%, and Coherent down 4.7%, while Nvidia gained 0.1% ahead of its earnings report Wednesday. Birkenstock gained over 3%, rebounding from near its 52-week low after last week's fiscal third-quarter results showed revenue of €719.5 million, above forecasts, and raised full-year revenue growth guidance of 15% in constant currency. PulteGroup gained 2.1% after Wolfe Research upgraded the homebuilder to Outperform from Peerperform, citing superior earnings durability versus peers.

Baron Capital's Q2 2026 investor letter for the Baron Focused Growth Fund highlighted Birkenstock Holding plc, whose shares rose 19.6% in the quarter and contributed 75 basis points to the fund's performance. The fund noted that Birkenstock's sales grew at a mid-teens rate despite concerns about the war in the Middle East, a depreciating dollar, and tariffs, with full-price sell-through above 90% and double-digit same-store sales growth. Management confirmed all fiscal year 2026 targets and continues to execute on growth objectives including expanding retail stores, growing in Asia Pacific, and increasing closed-toe penetration. The fund believes the stock trades at a significant discount to peers at 15 times next year's earnings per share despite expected earnings growth of 30% next year and 20% after that. Birkenstock reported second quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of EUR 618 million, an 8% year-over-year increase on a reported basis.

Birkenstock raised its fiscal 2026 guidance after reporting third-quarter revenue of 720 million euros, up 13% on a reported basis and 15% in constant currency. The company now expects full-year revenue growth of 15% in constant currency and adjusted EBITDA of at least 710 million euros. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 242 million euros, up 11% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of 0.74 euros, up 19%. The company also repurchased 230 million euros in shares and refinanced its senior notes at a 75 basis point lower rate.

Birkenstock Holding plc shares surged 11.59% on Aug. 13 after the German footwear maker reported stronger-than-expected fiscal 2026 third-quarter revenue and raised its full-year outlook. Revenue came in at €720 million, up 13% on a reported basis and 15% in constant currency, beating the €713.2 million consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS of €0.74 missed the €0.76 estimate, but management lifted full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% from a prior range of 13% to 15%, and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to at least €710 million from at least €700 million. Asia-Pacific was the fastest-growing region at 18% year-over-year, while direct-to-consumer revenue grew 14%, outpacing B2B growth of 13%. The company now has 124 own retail stores after adding 13 during the quarter, and Wall Street maintains a consensus Moderate Buy rating with an average price target of $53.24.

Several companies saw significant premarket moves following their latest earnings reports. Tapestry dropped 7% after fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $1.88 billion only slightly exceeded estimates, while Yeti slipped nearly 4% despite beating earnings expectations. Cerebras Systems tumbled nearly 18% after second-quarter revenue of $180 million missed the $194 million LSEG consensus, and StubHub lost almost 17% on weaker-than-expected adjusted gross margin. Birkenstock jumped 10% on better-than-expected quarterly results and raised full-year guidance, while EnerSys gained 13% after earnings and revenue topped Wall Street forecasts. Grocery Outlet rose 9% and Jack in the Box added more than 6% on earnings beats.

Platinum Asset Management’s International Brands Fund named Birkenstock Holding plc as one of its strongest contributors in the second quarter of 2026, with the stock gaining 23% over the period. The fund highlighted the German sandal-maker’s 24% operating margin, 40% return on capital, and 25% profit growth compared to a year ago, noting that management continues to expand product lines and overseas markets. Birkenstock reported revenue of EUR 618 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase on a reported basis. The fund also pointed to insider confidence, citing the CEO’s multimillion-euro stock purchase and a recently launched substantial buyback. Despite the quarterly gain, Birkenstock shares closed at $41.85 on July 28, 2026, down 19.67% over the past 52 weeks, with a market capitalization of $7.7 billion.

A UBS survey of European consumer spending in May shows On, Crocs and Birkenstock as the top-performing footwear brands, with On sales up 12 percent year-over-year, Crocs up 8 percent and Birkenstock up 1 percent. In contrast, Hoka, Vans and Ugg saw declines over the same period. Over a two-year basis, On, Crocs and Birkenstock also led, with Hoka ranking high. UBS analyst Jay Sole highlighted On's focus on innovation and direct-to-consumer selling as drivers of industry-leading growth, and expects strong performance to continue with a significant innovation cycle starting in October.

Raymond James initiated coverage of Birkenstock Holding with an Outperform rating and a $52 price target, calling the brand a compelling growth opportunity at an attractive valuation. Analyst Rick Patel noted that despite its founding in 1774, Birkenstock should be viewed as a growth story, with revenue expanding at a 22% compound annual growth rate from fiscal 2021 to 2025, compared to 14% for softlines peers. The firm forecasts revenue growth of 11.0% in fiscal 2026 and 12.8% in fiscal 2027, with an estimated revenue CAGR of 12% through fiscal 2027 against a peer average of 8%. Growth levers include increasing production capacity, assortment diversification into closed-toe footwear, deeper wholesale penetration, new store openings, and international expansion, with Asia-Pacific having potential to double and EMEA returning to growth. Raymond James believes Birkenstock is more supply-constrained than demand, viewing new distribution center capacity as a key catalyst, and forecasts unit growth at approximately 10% CAGR with average selling prices rising more than 3–5% annually. On valuation, Patel said the fiscal 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 15.5 times looks attractive against estimated EPS growth of 29% in fiscal 2027 and 20% in fiscal 2028.