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ASML vs Applied Materials: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AS)

Q3 2026
▼3▲1

AI Demand Boosts ASML, But China Export Risks and Rival Tools Weigh

  • AI-Driven Demand and Strong Financials ASML's Q2 sales beat expectations at €9.3B, 2026 guidance rose to €43–45B, and 2027 capacity is nearly sold out. High-NA EUV entered mass production with Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix adopting it, while SK Hynix placed a major EUV order and ASML bought back €1.1B in shares.

    This point captures the core positive driver of booming AI demand and strong financial performance that lifted investor confidence.

  • Tighter DUV Export Rules Threaten Revenue US lawmakers advanced tighter DUV export rules covering about 20% of ASML's 2026 revenue, adding regulatory risk and weighing on the stock.

    This point highlights a new regulatory threat that directly impacts a significant portion of ASML's revenue.

  • Chinese Rival Enters DUV Market China's Shanghai Aishengna began mass-producing rival immersion DUV tools, threatening about 29% of ASML's sales and triggering sharp selloffs.

    This point introduces a new competitive threat from China that could erode ASML's market share and revenue.

  • Valuation and AI Financing Concerns Concerns include AI financing doubts, AI slowdown fears, stretched valuation (35–40% above fair value), and potential rivals like Source Foundry, which could pressure the stock.

    This point captures broader market worries about AI sustainability and ASML's high valuation that could limit upside.

August 2026
▲2▼2

AI demand lifts ASML, but China DUV rival and financing doubts weigh

  • AI-driven demand and analyst upgrades TSMC's 44.7% July sales jump, Intel's $15B high-NA EUV raise, and Zeiss capacity expansion reinforced ASML's AI-driven outlook. Analysts raised targets, with UBS at €2,350 citing 30%+ 2027 growth.

    This point explains the main positive force behind ASML's price during the period.

  • New fab and market growth forecasts Tesla-SpaceX's $16.8B Texas fab and forecasts that the EUV market will double to $30.36B by 2032 added to optimism, while a broader chip rebound supported sentiment.

    This point highlights additional demand catalysts that lifted ASML's stock.

  • China DUV competition and export risks Shanghai Aishengna began mass-producing immersion DUV tools, threatening ~29% of ASML sales and triggering an 8.4% one-day drop. The CEO warned US China curbs could accelerate alternatives and shrink its market.

    This point captures the key negative force that pressured ASML's price.

  • AI financing doubts and stretched valuation AI financing doubts caused sector selloffs, Source Foundry raised $400M as a potential rival, and valuation looks stretched, adding pressure on ASML shares.

    This point explains the counterweight that limited ASML's gains during the period.

Latest
▲3▼1

ASML's AI-driven demand stays strong, but China export risk and stretched valuation loom

  • EUV market forecast to double by 2032 A new report projects the EUV lithography market will grow from $15.84 billion in 2026 to $30.36 billion by 2032, an 11.4% yearly pace. ASML is the only maker of these machines, so a bigger market directly lifts its future sales and supports the stock.

    Shows a long-term demand tailwind that underpins ASML's growth story.

  • Analysts raise ASML earnings estimates and price targets Zacks upgraded ASML to Buy after earnings estimates jumped 36.9% for the current quarter, and UBS kept it a top pick with a €2,350 target, expecting 2027 revenue growth above 30%. Higher estimates and targets pull the stock up as investors price in stronger profits.

    Analyst upgrades and estimate revisions are a direct positive force on the share price.

  • Investors see ASML as a core AI winner Top investors named ASML an AI winner because its EUV monopoly is nearly fully booked for 2027, and TSMC guided to over 40% revenue growth. This reinforces that AI spending keeps flowing to ASML's tools, supporting demand and the stock.

    Confirms strong AI-driven demand and near-term order visibility.

  • CEO warns US China curbs could backfire ASML's CEO warned that broader US export restrictions on China could speed up rival technologies and shrink ASML's market for EUV and DUV tools. This geopolitical risk could cap future sales and weigh on the stock, even as buybacks continue.

    A real counterweight that could limit ASML's addressable market and future growth.

September 2026
▲2▼1

ASML hits High-NA mass production, raises guidance on AI demand

  • High-NA EUV mass production and broad adoption High-NA EUV entered mass production with Intel, while TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix lined up adoption into the 2030s. This cements ASML's technology lead and opens a new growth phase.

    This is the key new positive event that drove ASML's stock in September 2026.

  • Guidance raise, buyback, and capacity plans ASML raised 2026 guidance to €43–45bn on AI demand, bought back €1.1bn in shares, and studied building over 110 EUV tools in 2028. Service and upgrade sales jumped 31.8%.

    These concrete financial and operational updates are new and directly support the stock.

  • AI slowdown fears and valuation stretch AI slowdown fears triggered a 5–6% sell-off after industry leaders urged caution, and ASML trades 35–40% above analyst fair value, leaving little room for error on AI spending or High-NA execution.

    This is the main new risk that weighed on the stock during the period.

▲3▼1

ASML's High-NA EUV Order Book Widens as Valuation Stays Stretched

  • Samsung expands High-NA EUV partnership Samsung deepened its ASML partnership to use High-NA EUV for future memory and logic lines, adding to Intel and TSMC commitments. Each machine costs about $400 million, so more committed buyers lengthen ASML's order runway and support future sales and pricing.

    A concrete new customer commitment that directly supports ASML's future revenue.

  • Service and upgrade sales jump 31.8% ASML's installed-base business, which services and upgrades machines already in chipmakers' factories, grew 31.8% to €2.8 billion in the second quarter, beating management's own expectations. This steady, recurring revenue grows with the EUV fleet and is less tied to new-machine cycles.

    Shows a fast-growing, recurring revenue stream that cushions ASML against equipment-order swings.

  • 12-inch photomask standard locks in High-NA roadmap TSMC and ASML launched an industry push to move EUV photomasks from 6-inch to 12-inch, targeting a pilot line by 2031 and production by 2033. Bigger masks can raise High-NA output about 40%, strengthening the long-term case for ASML's most expensive machines.

    A new industry-standard initiative that underpins the long-term economics of ASML's High-NA line.

  • Valuation premium leaves little room for error ASML shares trade roughly 35-40% above analyst fair-value estimates, so any wobble in AI spending or High-NA execution can hit the stock hard. This is the main counterweight: the business is strong, but the price already assumes a lot goes right.

    The key risk balancing the positive demand news, explaining why shares can slip even on good headlines.

▲2▼1

AI slowdown fears hit ASML, but 2028 EUV output plan signals strong demand

  • AI leaders' slowdown call triggers sector sell-off On September 14, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, backed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, urged a deliberate slowdown in AI development. ASML fell 5-6% as investors feared weaker demand for chipmaking equipment. This is a new negative force, though political opposition and Altman's clarification limit the impact.

    This was the main reason ASML dropped sharply this period, directly answering why the stock moved.

  • ASML studies building over 110 EUV tools in 2028 ASML is examining ways to produce more than 110 EUV systems in 2028, up at least 37.5% from 2027, driven by AI demand. Its 2027 capacity is nearly sold out. This signals strong future orders and supports the stock, as it shows ASML is preparing for a boom, not a slowdown.

    This is a new, concrete positive signal that counters the slowdown fears and shows ASML's growth path.

  • TSMC capex surge and ASML Q2 results confirm AI demand ASML's Q2 revenue rose 21.3% to $10.65 billion, with memory system sales expected to grow over 75% this year. TSMC raised its 2026 capital budget to $60-64 billion and is expanding in Arizona. This spending directly benefits ASML, as TSMC buys its lithography tools.

    This new article provides fresh confirmation of strong customer spending, a key positive driver for ASML.

▲4

ASML's High-NA EUV Wins Broad Chipmaker Adoption, Guidance Raised

  • High-NA EUV moves into real production Intel and ASML confirmed over one million wafers processed on High-NA EUV, with Intel using it for Panther Lake chips. This proves ASML's newest, most expensive machines work in mass production, supporting future orders and pricing power.

    This is the core new event of the period and directly supports ASML's most advanced product line.

  • TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix line up for High-NA TSMC plans High-NA for advanced nodes by 2030, Samsung and SK Hynix for DRAM by 2028. More chipmakers adopting ASML's top tools widens its customer base and lengthens the order runway into the 2030s.

    Shows the demand driver broadening beyond Intel, which is new and important for future revenue.

  • ASML raises 2026 guidance on AI demand ASML lifted 2026 sales guidance to €43–45 billion and gross margin to 54–56%, saying AI spending is lifting orders into 2028. It also bought back about €1.1 billion of shares, signaling confidence and supporting the stock price.

    A direct, company-issued upgrade to financial targets is a major new positive for the stock.

  • Record chip-equipment spending, memory boom Industry wafer-fab equipment spending is set to hit a record $135.2 billion in 2026, with memory equipment up sharply. ASML plans 30% more low-NA EUV capacity for 2027, positioning it to capture this demand.

    This is the broad industry backdrop that underpins ASML's order growth and capacity expansion.

▲3▼1

ASML Rises on TSMC AI Demand, Intel Spending; New Rival Funded

  • TSMC's July sales surge signals more ASML orders ahead TSMC, ASML's biggest customer, reported July revenue up 44.7% from a year earlier and raised its 2026 spending plans. When TSMC sells more AI chips, it needs more of ASML's lithography machines, so ASML shares jumped as much as 5%.

    This is the main new demand signal that moved ASML this period.

  • Intel's $15 billion raise funds high-NA EUV expansion Intel plans to sell $15 billion in new stock to fund AI and foundry expansion, including high-volume production using ASML's newest high-NA EUV machines. That means a major customer is spending more on ASML's most advanced, expensive tools, supporting future orders.

    New customer capital commitment directly supports ASML's high-end equipment demand.

  • Zeiss says it can keep up with ASML machine demand Zeiss, which makes the special mirrors inside ASML's most advanced machines, said it has enough capacity and is building new factories to meet AI-driven demand. This eases fears that a parts shortage could limit how many machines ASML can deliver.

    Removes a key supply bottleneck worry that could have capped ASML's sales.

  • New $400 million bet on a lithography rival A hedge fund invested $400 million in startup Source Foundry, which is developing lithography equipment to compete with ASML. It does not affect ASML's current orders, but it shows serious money backing a potential future rival in a market ASML has long dominated.

    Introduces a new competitive threat that could weigh on ASML's long-term pricing power.

▲2▼2

China DUV rival and AI selloff hit ASML; Tesla fab and chip rebound offer support

  • China's homegrown DUV machines spark global chip selloff China's Shanghai Aishengna began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography tools, the older machines ASML sells to China (about 29% of 2025 sales). This breaks ASML's near-monopoly on that technology, threatening future Chinese orders and service revenue. The news triggered a worldwide chip rout, and ASML fell 8.4% in a single day.

    This is the main new competitive threat that directly drove ASML's sharp drop this period.

  • AI stock selloff and financing doubts drag sector Investors grew skeptical about how AI data-center spending is financed, and a broad AI-linked selloff hit chip stocks. ASML fell with the whole sector, not just on its own news. Capital Economics called the selloff fear-driven and expects a rally to resume, but warned longer-term earnings expectations look too optimistic.

    Explains the market-wide pressure that amplified ASML's decline beyond its own China news.

  • Tesla-SpaceX $16.8B Texas chip complex to boost equipment demand Tesla and SpaceX are building a $16.8 billion semiconductor complex in Texas, combining chip design, wafer production, memory, packaging and testing. It could create significant orders for equipment suppliers like ASML, which is already factoring expected Terafab demand into its future capacity plans. Execution risks remain, but it supports long-term demand.

    A new, concrete demand driver that could offset China competition fears over time.

  • Chipmaker rebound lifts ASML over 2% ASML gained over 2% as chipmakers rebounded, with ARM up more than 5% and ON Semiconductor and Marvell also rising. The rebound suggests demand for ASML's lithography systems remains robust despite recent China fears. This is a short-term sentiment shift, but it shows the stock can recover when sector worries ease.

    Shows the counterweight: investor confidence returning to chip equipment names.

July 2026
▲2▼1

ASML Q2 Beat and Sold-Out 2027 Offset by China DUV Threat

  • Strong Q2 results and raised guidance ASML beat expectations with €9.3B sales and €2.9B profit, raised 2026 guidance to €43–45B, and said 2027 capacity is nearly sold out with price increases planned. This shows booming demand for its chipmaking machines.

    This is the core positive fundamental news that drove investor confidence during the period.

  • Major customer orders and AI investment SK Hynix placed a €11.9 trillion won EUV order, and ASML led a €1.7B Mistral AI funding round. Intel also began commercial High NA EUV production, reinforcing ASML's central role in advanced chipmaking.

    These concrete orders and investments signal robust demand and strategic positioning in AI.

  • China export restrictions and competitive threat US lawmakers advanced tighter DUV export rules covering about 20% of 2026 revenue, and China's Shanghai Aishengna began mass-producing rival immersion DUV tools. This sparked an 8% drop and a global chip rout.

    This is the most damaging new risk that pressured the stock and raised long-term competitive concerns.

  • Analyst actions and TSMC capex selloff Zacks rated ASML a Sell on China export concerns, while Omdia raised AI chip forecasts and ASML planned low-NA EUV price hikes. TSMC's capex guidance triggered a sector selloff, adding volatility.

    These analyst and customer capex signals created mixed sentiment, with both positive and negative pressures.

▲2▼2

China DUV breakthrough slams ASML; AI demand and EUV pricing power offset

  • China starts mass-producing rival DUV tools China's state-backed Shanghai Aishengna began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines, the type ASML sells to China — about 29% of 2025 sales. This breaks ASML's near-monopoly on that older technology, so future Chinese orders and service revenue are at risk. The stock fell over 8%.

    This is the single biggest new force hitting ASML this period and the main reason the stock dropped.

  • Global chip selloff on China fears and AI financing doubts The China DUV news triggered a worldwide semiconductor rout: Korea's Kospi fell about 11%, Samsung and SK Hynix each dropped over 12%, and Nvidia lost 5%. Investors also grew skeptical about how AI data-center spending is financed. ASML fell with the whole sector, not just on its own news.

    Shows the selloff was market-wide, amplifying the drop in ASML shares beyond the China story alone.

  • AI chip demand forecast raised, capacity still tight Omdia lifted its 2026 semiconductor revenue growth forecast to 94.1%, driven by AI memory demand, with leading-edge chip capacity constrained into 2027. That means foundries still need more of ASML's machines. This is a counterweight to the China competition fear, supporting future orders.

    It is the main new positive force offsetting the China-driven selloff and supports ASML's order pipeline.

  • ASML raising low-NA EUV prices on monopoly strength ASML is reportedly planning to raise prices for its low-NA EUV systems, which cost about $200 million each, citing their rising value to chipmakers. With a monopoly on EUV and 2027 capacity nearly sold out, higher prices lift revenue and margins. This supports the stock despite the China threat.

    Pricing power is a new, concrete positive driver for ASML's revenue and margins this period.

▲3▼1

ASML's record Q2 and raised outlook offset by new export-control and capex-cost worries

  • Q2 beat and sharply raised 2026 guidance ASML reported Q2 sales of €9.3 billion and profit of €2.9 billion, both above its own guidance, and raised full-year 2026 sales to €43–45 billion from €36–40 billion. The stock jumped as much as 8% because this shows AI-driven demand is still accelerating, not fading.

    The earnings beat and raised outlook are the single biggest new force moving ASML's price this period.

  • Intel starts commercial production with ASML's newest High NA EUV tool Intel began using ASML's next-generation High NA EUV machine in commercial production at its Oregon plant, with yields matching older tools. This matters because the expensive new machine had faced doubts about adoption; a major customer proving it works supports future orders and pricing power.

    It is a concrete new customer milestone that validates ASML's most advanced and highest-priced product line.

  • 2027 EUV capacity nearly sold out; price rises planned ASML's CFO said 2027 EUV capacity is close to fully booked, with substantial 2028 orders already secured, and the company plans to raise equipment prices. Full order books and higher prices both point to stronger future revenue, though biggest customer TSMC is pushing back on the increases.

    It shows demand visibility years out and a new profit lever, directly supporting the stock's valuation.

  • New US export-control push and TSMC capex-cost selloff US lawmakers advanced rules that could tighten ASML's DUV sales to China, about 20% of 2026 revenue, while TSMC's higher capex guidance sparked a sector selloff that dragged ASML down 4.7% on Friday. These are the main counterweights to the strong earnings.

    It captures the two real negatives this period: regulatory risk to China revenue and margin-cost fears spreading through chip stocks.

▲3

ASML leads €1.7B Mistral AI round; analysts hike targets ahead of Q2

  • ASML invests €1.3B in Mistral AI, forms strategic partnership ASML led a €1.7 billion funding round for French AI startup Mistral AI, investing €1.3 billion. The partnership will explore using AI models across ASML's products and operations. This signals ASML is embedding AI deeper into its business, which could improve its technology and efficiency, supporting the stock.

    New capital deployment and technology partnership that could enhance ASML's competitive edge.

  • Bernstein and other analysts raise ASML price targets sharply Bernstein lifted its ASML target to $2,623 from $1,971, citing unprecedented AI-driven demand for advanced logic and DRAM chips. Morgan Stanley and Susquehanna also raised targets. Higher targets from major banks can attract more investors and push the stock up.

    Analyst upgrades reflect growing confidence in ASML's earnings outlook, directly influencing investor sentiment.

  • SK Hynix confirms 11.9 trillion won EUV order from ASML SK Hynix plans to spend about 11.9 trillion won on EUV scanners from ASML, with delivery by December 2027. This concrete order, tied to SK Hynix's Nasdaq IPO, shows strong demand for ASML's most advanced machines and supports future revenue.

    Large confirmed order provides visibility on future sales, a key driver for the stock.

  • Q2 earnings preview: strong demand expected but Zacks rates Sell ASML reports Q2 on July 15, with analysts expecting strong results and raised guidance on AI demand. However, Zacks rates the stock a Sell, citing downward estimate revisions and China export risks. The mixed views create uncertainty ahead of the report, which could cause volatility.

    Upcoming earnings are a major near-term catalyst, with conflicting analyst views that could swing the stock.

Q2 2026
▲3▼1

ASML Hits Highs on AI Demand, Then Falls on Export Fears

  • AI-driven demand and analyst optimism ASML hit a 52-week high as Intel started risk production using its 18A-P technology, Dan Loeb's fund took a stake, and Goldman Sachs named ASML a top beneficiary of AI spending. This boosted investor confidence.

    This point captures the key positive drivers that pushed ASML to a new high during the period.

  • Export control concerns and valuation fears US worries about a possible EUV shipment to China and the Netherlands joining the US-led Pax Silica alliance tightened export rules. The stock fell 8.7% amid broader AI valuation fears, adding regulatory risk.

    This point explains the main negative forces that caused a sharp decline in ASML's stock price.

  • Strong demand signals from customers SK Hynix planned a $29 billion listing partly to buy EUV scanners, and IBM unveiled a sub-1nm chip with ASML. These events showed robust demand for ASML's advanced equipment.

    This point highlights concrete customer actions that reinforced demand for ASML's products.

  • Record high on investment and buyback ASML reached a record high on South Korea's $1.3 trillion chip investment, analyst upgrades, a $45 billion backlog, and a €12 billion buyback. An EU report warned the US could block China exports, but the overall sentiment was positive.

    This point captures the final positive drivers that lifted ASML to a record high despite lingering risks.

June 2026
▲3▼1

ASML Hits Highs on AI Demand, Then Falls on Export Fears

  • AI-driven demand and analyst optimism ASML hit a 52-week high as Intel started risk production using its 18A-P technology, Dan Loeb's fund took a stake, and Goldman Sachs named ASML a top beneficiary of AI spending. This boosted investor confidence.

    This point captures the key positive drivers that pushed ASML to a new high during the period.

  • Export control concerns and valuation fears US worries about a possible EUV shipment to China and the Netherlands joining the US-led Pax Silica alliance tightened export rules. The stock fell 8.7% amid broader AI valuation fears, adding regulatory risk.

    This point explains the main negative forces that caused a sharp decline in ASML's stock price.

  • Strong demand signals from customers SK Hynix planned a $29 billion listing partly to buy EUV scanners, and IBM unveiled a sub-1nm chip with ASML. These events showed robust demand for ASML's advanced equipment.

    This point highlights concrete customer actions that reinforced demand for ASML's products.

  • Record high on investment and buyback ASML reached a record high on South Korea's $1.3 trillion chip investment, analyst upgrades, a $45 billion backlog, and a €12 billion buyback. An EU report warned the US could block China exports, but the overall sentiment was positive.

    This point captures the final positive drivers that lifted ASML to a record high despite lingering risks.

▲3▼1

ASML hits record on $1.3T Korea chip bet, strong backlog, bullish analyst calls

  • Samsung and SK Hynix's $1.3 trillion Korea chip investment South Korea announced that Samsung and SK Hynix will invest over $1.3 trillion in new chip plants. This massive, decade-long spending will require many EUV machines from ASML, driving its stock up 5.3% to a record high.

    This is a major new demand catalyst that directly boosts ASML's future orders and stock price.

  • JPMorgan and BofA raise price targets on improved outlook JPMorgan and BofA raised their price targets for ASML, citing better capacity and demand recovery. This signals growing confidence from major banks, which can attract more investors and push the stock higher.

    Analyst upgrades are a direct driver of investor sentiment and price targets, influencing buying decisions.

  • ASML's strong financials and €12 billion buyback ASML reported a $45 billion backlog, 52.8% gross margin, and announced a new €12 billion share buyback. These fundamentals show the company's financial strength and support its stock price by returning cash to shareholders.

    Strong financial health and buybacks are key factors that underpin investor confidence and stock valuation.

  • EU report warns US could block ASML's China exports An EU-funded report warns that the US could block ASML's exports to China, adding regulatory risk. This could reduce future sales to a key market, creating uncertainty that may weigh on the stock price.

    This highlights a real regulatory threat that could negatively impact ASML's revenue and investor sentiment.

▲2▼2

AI valuation fears and Dutch export alliance hit ASML, but new orders emerge

  • AI valuation fears trigger sharp tech selloff Global tech stocks plunged on fears that AI-related valuations are too high and interest rates may rise. ASML fell 8.7% in one day as chipmakers led the decline. This hurts ASML's price because investors are selling high-flying tech stocks, even if the company's business remains strong.

    This explains the immediate negative price move and the broader market sentiment driving ASML down.

  • Netherlands joins Pax Silica, tightening export rules The Netherlands joined a U.S.-led alliance to coordinate AI supply chains, raising expectations of stricter export controls on ASML's equipment to China. China was 36% of ASML's system sales in late 2025 but only 19% in early 2026. This adds regulatory risk and could reduce future sales, pushing the stock down.

    This is a new regulatory development that directly affects ASML's sales to China and investor confidence.

  • SK Hynix plans $29 billion listing to buy EUV scanners SK Hynix filed to raise $29.65 billion on the Nasdaq, partly to buy EUV scanners from ASML. This is a concrete order signal that supports future revenue. It pushes ASML's price up because it shows demand for its most advanced machines remains strong despite market jitters.

    This is a new, specific demand driver that counters the negative sentiment and shows ASML's order book strength.

  • IBM unveils sub-1nm chip with ASML as partner IBM announced the world's first sub-1 nanometer chip technology, developed with ASML as a partner. This shows ASML's tools are essential for the next generation of chips. It supports ASML's long-term demand and helps offset negative news, though commercial adoption is years away.

    This is a new technology milestone that reinforces ASML's critical role in advanced chipmaking, supporting its long-term growth story.

▲3▼1

ASML hits high on AI demand, but US-China export scrutiny clouds outlook

  • Intel's 18A-P risk production lifts EUV demand hopes Intel announced its 18A-P chip node entered risk production, a step toward mass manufacturing. This could mean more orders for ASML's EUV machines, as Intel needs them to make advanced chips. The stock hit a 52-week high on the news.

    This is a new event that directly boosts expected demand for ASML's core products.

  • Dan Loeb's new stake signals confidence in ASML's monopoly Billionaire investor Dan Loeb bought a new stake in ASML, worth about $15.85 million. His move shows belief that ASML's unique position in EUV lithography and the AI boom still have room to grow, even after a big stock rally.

    A high-profile investor's new position can sway sentiment and highlights ASML's durable competitive edge.

  • Goldman Sachs sees ASML as a top beneficiary of AI capex boom Goldman Sachs says the world has entered a new era of heavy spending on AI infrastructure, with hyperscalers expected to spend $755 billion in 2026. ASML is named as one of about 50 global companies set to benefit from this capital flood.

    This macro shift supports long-term demand for ASML's machines and validates its role in the AI supply chain.

  • US concerns that ASML EUV machine may have reached China US Commerce Secretary Lutnick told ASML leaders he is worried that one of its top EUV machines may have gone to China, breaking export rules. This could lead to fines or tighter restrictions, adding risk to ASML's sales and reputation.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could hurt ASML's business and investor confidence.

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Applied Materials Hits Record Q3 on AI Demand, But China and Valuation Risks Bite

  • Record Q3 Results and Strong Guidance Applied Materials reported record Q3 revenue of $9.12 billion, up about 25%, with profit up 43% and services at a record $1.78 billion. The company guided next quarter to roughly $10.25 billion, driven by AI data-center demand and advanced packaging growth of over 70%.

    This is the core new financial performance that drove the stock during the period.

  • Eight-Quarter Order Book and Analyst Upgrades Applied Materials has an eight-quarter order book, giving visibility into future revenue. Analyst upgrades and TSMC's US expansion added support, reinforcing confidence in sustained demand for chipmaking equipment.

    This highlights forward-looking demand signals and external validation that supported the stock.

  • China Revenue Threats from Domestic DUV and Mandate China's homegrown DUV breakthrough and a 50% domestic-equipment mandate threaten Applied Materials' China revenue, which is 26–30% of total sales. This regulatory push could significantly reduce future orders from a key market.

    This is a major new risk that emerged during the period and weighs on the stock.

  • Valuation Concerns and Post-Earnings Selloff Despite strong results, the stock fell about 15% after earnings. BofA cut its price target on slower growth, and with the stock up about 90% this year and trading at 26x forward earnings, there is little room for disappointment. AI spending fears and Michael Burry's short triggered sharp selloffs.

    This explains the negative price reaction despite record results, a key counterweight.

September 2026
▲2▼2

AI demand drives record results and strong outlook, but China risk and high valuation weigh

  • AI demand fuels record results and strong guidance Applied Materials reported record quarterly revenue of $9.12 billion, up 24.8% year over year, and guided next quarter to about $10.25 billion, up 51%. CEO Gary Dickerson said AI compute demand is driving nearly 40% growth this year, with an eight-quarter order book giving visibility into 2026 and beyond. This supports the stock by showing real profits and a strong pipeline.

    This is the core positive driver: AI demand is translating into record financials and confident future guidance.

  • Services and advanced packaging add steady growth Applied Materials' services business hit a record $1.78 billion in revenue, up 22%, and is expected to keep growing over 20% annually. Advanced packaging revenue is set to grow more than 70% this year, and DRAM including HBM packaging jumped 52% to record levels. These recurring and high-growth areas make AMAT's earnings less cyclical and support the stock.

    It highlights new growth engines beyond core equipment sales that underpin the bullish case.

  • China's push for domestic equipment threatens future sales China is requiring chipmakers to use at least 50% domestically made equipment for new capacity, and Chinese toolmakers are growing fast. China was about 26-30% of Applied Materials' revenue, so this could shrink its addressable market over several years. While not an immediate hit, it's a real long-term risk that pressures the stock.

    It is the main counterweight: a structural threat to a large revenue source.

  • High valuation leaves little room for error Even after strong results, the stock is down about 15% since reporting and trades at a premium (forward P/E around 26x). Investors had already bid it up nearly 90% this year, so any slowdown in AI spending or DRAM investment could trigger a sharp pullback. This is a real risk that can cap gains.

    It explains why good news hasn't lifted the stock and why expectations are a key risk.

Latest
▲2▼2

AI demand drives record results and strong outlook, but China risk and high valuation weigh

  • AI demand fuels record results and strong guidance Applied Materials reported record quarterly revenue of $9.12 billion, up 24.8% year over year, and guided next quarter to about $10.25 billion, up 51%. CEO Gary Dickerson said AI compute demand is driving nearly 40% growth this year, with an eight-quarter order book giving visibility into 2026 and beyond. This supports the stock by showing real profits and a strong pipeline.

    This is the core positive driver: AI demand is translating into record financials and confident future guidance.

  • Services and advanced packaging add steady growth Applied Materials' services business hit a record $1.78 billion in revenue, up 22%, and is expected to keep growing over 20% annually. Advanced packaging revenue is set to grow more than 70% this year, and DRAM including HBM packaging jumped 52% to record levels. These recurring and high-growth areas make AMAT's earnings less cyclical and support the stock.

    It highlights new growth engines beyond core equipment sales that underpin the bullish case.

  • China's push for domestic equipment threatens future sales China is requiring chipmakers to use at least 50% domestically made equipment for new capacity, and Chinese toolmakers are growing fast. China was about 26-30% of Applied Materials' revenue, so this could shrink its addressable market over several years. While not an immediate hit, it's a real long-term risk that pressures the stock.

    It is the main counterweight: a structural threat to a large revenue source.

  • High valuation leaves little room for error Even after strong results, the stock is down about 15% since reporting and trades at a premium (forward P/E around 26x). Investors had already bid it up nearly 90% this year, so any slowdown in AI spending or DRAM investment could trigger a sharp pullback. This is a real risk that can cap gains.

    It explains why good news hasn't lifted the stock and why expectations are a key risk.

August 2026
▲2▼2

Record Q3 results and AI demand lift AMAT, but valuation and BofA cut temper gains

  • Record Q3 earnings and strong guidance Applied Materials reported record quarterly revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25% from a year ago, with profit up 43% and gross margin at 50.3%. The company also guided for next quarter above expectations, showing strong business momentum.

    This is the core new financial result that drove sentiment during the period.

  • AI data-center and foundry demand signals AI data-center spending, TSMC's 44.7% July revenue jump, bullish NAND signals, and a potential $16.8 billion Tesla/SpaceX chip complex all point to multi-year demand for chipmaking equipment, supporting AMAT's outlook.

    These demand indicators underpin the positive long-term narrative for AMAT.

  • Post-earnings selloff on high expectations Despite strong results, AMAT shares fell about 5% after earnings as investors, after a near-100% run this year, expected even more. This leaves little room for disappointment and shows how high expectations have become.

    This explains the negative price reaction despite good fundamentals.

  • BofA price target cut on slower growth Bank of America cut its price target to $650 from $720, citing slower sequential growth and flatter margins versus peers like Lam Research. This suggests AMAT may lag rivals despite maintaining a Buy rating.

    This analyst action reflects concerns about relative performance and valuation.

▲2▼2

Record Q3 and AI demand strong, but high expectations and valuation weigh on AMAT

  • Record Q3 results and strong Q4 guidance on AI demand Applied Materials reported record Q3 revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25%, and guided Q4 revenue to $10.25 billion, well above estimates. AI-driven demand for chipmaking tools, especially for leading-edge logic and DRAM, is fueling growth. This supports the stock by showing real profits and a strong pipeline.

    This is the core new fundamental event of the period, directly driving AMAT's earnings and outlook.

  • Stock falls 5% despite beat as expectations run high Even with record results and upbeat guidance, AMAT shares fell about 5% after earnings. Investors had bid the stock up nearly 100% this year and wanted an even bigger surprise. The high valuation leaves little room for disappointment, a real counterweight to the good news.

    This explains the immediate negative price reaction and highlights the valuation risk that is central to AMAT's current story.

  • BofA cuts price target to $650 on slower growth and flat margins Bank of America lowered its AMAT price target to $650 from $720, citing slower sequential growth and a flatter margin outlook compared to peers like Lam Research. While it kept a Buy rating and raised earnings estimates, the cut signals that AMAT's growth may lag rivals, pressuring the stock.

    This analyst action reflects concerns about AMAT's relative performance and directly affects investor sentiment and price targets.

  • AI demand signals from TSMC, SanDisk, and Anthropic lift chip stocks TSMC's July revenue jumped 44.7% on AI chip demand, SanDisk gave bullish NAND targets, and Anthropic's revenue surged over 14-fold, all pointing to strong AI infrastructure spending. This boosts demand for AMAT's equipment and lifted the stock 5.9% on August 18.

    These external demand indicators reinforce the AI-driven upcycle that is the main force behind AMAT's business and stock.

▲4

AMAT surges on record Q3, strong Q4 guide, and AI-driven equipment demand

  • Record Q3 results and strong Q4 guidance Applied Materials reported Q3 revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25%, with profit up 43% and gross margin improving to 50.3%. It guided Q4 revenue to $10.25 billion and EPS of $4.02, both above expectations. This shows the AI-driven demand is translating into real profits and gives investors confidence in future growth.

    This is the most direct and material new event that answers why the stock is moving now.

  • AI data center boom drives multi-year equipment demand Experts highlight severe undersupply of semiconductor equipment as hyperscalers plan to spend $750 billion to $1 trillion annually on AI data centers. Analysts recommend equipment suppliers like Applied Materials for multi-year capex growth. This reinforces that demand for AMAT's tools will stay strong for years, supporting the stock.

    It explains the big-picture force behind AMAT's growth: massive AI infrastructure spending.

  • TSMC's 45% revenue surge signals robust equipment demand TSMC reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue jump for July, boosting chip equipment stocks including Applied Materials. TSMC's strong results reflect healthy AI chip demand, which means more orders for AMAT's chipmaking tools. This adds to confidence that the current upcycle is intact.

    It provides fresh evidence that AMAT's key customer is thriving, directly supporting demand for its equipment.

  • New Tesla/SpaceX chip complex could bring more orders Tesla and SpaceX are planning a $16.8 billion semiconductor complex in Texas, which could create significant opportunities for equipment suppliers like Applied Materials. While execution risks remain, the project adds to the pipeline of new chip factories that will need AMAT's tools, supporting future revenue.

    It is a new potential demand driver that could contribute to AMAT's long-term growth.

July 2026
▼2▲1

AMAT swings on AI fears, China breakthrough, offsetting upgrades

  • AI spending fears and Burry short trigger selloffs Worries that AI spending may not last, plus Michael Burry's bet against the stock, caused sharp weekly drops of 6.5% to 9%. Chinese AI competition and oversupply concerns added to the selling pressure.

    This explains the main negative force that drove AMAT's price down during the period.

  • China's homegrown DUV breakthrough pressures sentiment China's progress on its own deep ultraviolet chipmaking tools raised fears that future equipment orders from China could shrink, adding to the selloff in AMAT shares.

    This is a new competitive and geopolitical development that weighed on the stock.

  • Analyst upgrades and TSMC expansion lift shares Morgan Stanley, HSBC (target $683), and Goldman Sachs raised their views, while TSMC's $100 billion US expansion promised more equipment orders. These helped drive rallies during the month.

    This shows the positive forces that offset the selloffs and pushed the stock higher at times.

  • Strong services and equipment outlook vs. stretched valuation AMAT's services revenue grew 17% and equipment outlook topped 30%, supporting bulls who see durable AI demand through 2028. But bears noted cash-flow valuation of $248 versus $554, leaving little room for disappointment.

    This captures the tug-of-war between solid business fundamentals and valuation concerns that drove volatility.

▲2▼2

China DUV Breakthrough and AI Bubble Fears Hit AMAT; HSBC and Mizuho Push Back

  • China's homegrown DUV lithography threatens AMAT's China sales China began mass-producing domestic immersion DUV chipmaking machines, a key tool AMAT doesn't make but which could let Chinese factories buy less Western equipment. AMAT and peers fell as investors feared lost sales to a major market, a new competitive and geopolitical risk.

    This is the period's biggest new negative force, directly threatening AMAT's China revenue and explaining the sharp selloff.

  • AI spending doubts and China competition trigger broad chip selloff Chip stocks slid hard as investors questioned whether massive AI infrastructure spending can last, and China's chipmaking progress plus CXMT's debut fueled oversupply fears. AMAT fell 7.1% in one session and over 5% in another, showing how sensitive its price is to AI demand confidence.

    This captures the period's dominant negative price driver: renewed fear that AI-driven equipment demand may not be sustainable.

  • HSBC raises AMAT target to $683 on stronger equipment outlook HSBC lifted its AMAT price target to $683 from $522, forecasting the wafer fab equipment market will reach $272 billion by 2028. The upgrade reflects confidence that AI and advanced chip manufacturing will keep driving equipment spending, supporting AMAT's earnings and stock.

    A major analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly counters the negative narrative and supports the stock.

  • Mizuho says China memory fears are overblown, easing oversupply worry Mizuho argued CXMT won't flood the DRAM market, noting AMAT and Lam suspended tool servicing on CXMT equipment, limiting its supply growth. This pushes back on fears that Chinese memory expansion will crush pricing and hurt AMAT's customers' spending.

    This directly addresses the period's key bear case (China oversupply) and provides a credible counterweight supporting AMAT.

▲3

TSMC's $100B US expansion and price hikes lift AMAT; AI demand stays strong

  • TSMC's $100B US expansion and chip price hikes TSMC pledged an extra $100 billion for US chip plants and raised its growth outlook after record Q2 sales. It also plans to charge more for chips. This means more orders for Applied Materials' chipmaking tools, pushing the stock up 7.7%.

    This is the biggest new event this period and directly drives AMAT's price higher.

  • Applied Materials' service business grows steadily Applied Materials' services segment, which maintains tools already in chip factories, grew revenue 17% to $1.665 billion with better profit margins. Management expects mid-teens growth ahead. This recurring revenue makes earnings steadier and supports the stock.

    New detail on a recurring revenue stream that adds resilience and supports the bull case.

  • AI demand drives 30%+ equipment growth and strong results Applied Materials beat revenue estimates with $7.91 billion, up 11.4%, and expects its chip equipment business to grow over 30% in 2026. Analysts and billionaire investor Philippe Laffont remain bullish, citing AI infrastructure demand. This reinforces confidence in future profits.

    Confirms the core growth driver and strong financials that underpin the stock's rise.

  • Valuation gap and AI materials research bet AMAT joined CuspAI's AI materials discovery group, a long-term technology bet. Meanwhile, a cash-flow model values the stock at $248 versus the $554 close, a wide gap. The high price leaves little room for disappointment, a real counterweight.

    Highlights the main risk (valuation) and a new technology initiative that could pay off long-term.

▼3▲1

AI Optimism Fades as Chip Stocks Slide on Spending and Competition Fears

  • AI trade rotation and spending sustainability fears A broad rotation out of AI-exposed stocks sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 11% this week, its worst weekly drop in over a year. Applied Materials fell 6.5% as investors questioned whether massive AI infrastructure spending can continue, directly pressuring equipment demand expectations.

    This is the dominant new force driving AMAT's price down this period.

  • Michael Burry's short position and market impact Michael Burry disclosed a short bet against Applied Materials, and the stock fell 17% over two days. Analysts said his warning accelerated selling already underway amid AI spending doubts. This adds a high-profile bearish signal that weighs on investor sentiment and the stock price.

    A new, specific negative catalyst that directly hit AMAT this period.

  • Chinese AI competition and falling token prices Apollo's chief economist warned that Chinese AI models like DeepSeek and Moonshot's Kimi K3, plus falling token prices, could burst the AI bubble. If AI spending slows, demand for Applied Materials' chipmaking equipment would fall, hurting revenue and the stock.

    A new fundamental risk that could undermine the AI-driven demand story for AMAT.

  • Goldman Sachs raises price target on DRAM demand Goldman Sachs lifted its Applied Materials price target to $645 from $520, citing strong DRAM and high-bandwidth memory demand that extends order visibility into 2028. This analyst upgrade supports the stock by reinforcing confidence in durable AI-driven growth.

    A new positive analyst action that highlights AMAT's long-term demand outlook.

▲3▼1

Chip stocks swing on AI demand fears and China easing

  • AI spending sustainability fears trigger sharp selloff Samsung's record profit and DeepSeek's custom AI chip news sparked a sell-the-news reaction, with AMAT falling over 9% as investors questioned whether massive AI infrastructure spending can continue. This fear pressures AMAT's price because its equipment sales depend on chipmakers keeping up heavy spending.

    This is the main negative force this period, directly explaining the sharp drop in AMAT shares.

  • China may ease Nvidia AI chip import restrictions Reports that China may allow limited imports of Nvidia's H200 chips sent AMAT and other chip equipment stocks up over 5%. Easier access to advanced AI chips in China could revive demand for the equipment AMAT sells to Chinese chipmakers, supporting its revenue.

    This is a new positive catalyst that directly lifted AMAT shares and improves the demand outlook.

  • Analyst upgrades and prolonged demand cycle Morgan Stanley, KeyBanc, and Stifel raised AMAT price targets, with Stifel citing a prolonged demand cycle from agentic AI and projecting wafer fab equipment spending rising to $225 billion by 2028. Higher targets and spending forecasts boost investor confidence and support AMAT's stock price.

    These upgrades reflect growing optimism about AMAT's long-term demand and directly influence its valuation.

  • Chipmakers' free cash flow surges, unlike Big Tech Bank of America analysis shows free cash flow surging for chipmakers including AMAT while hyperscalers' cash flow declines. This generational shift suggests chip equipment makers are key beneficiaries of AI spending, which could attract more investment to AMAT and support its stock.

    This highlights a fundamental shift favoring AMAT's cash generation and investment appeal.

Q2 2026
▲3▼1

Applied Materials Surges on AI Demand and Record Q2 Results

  • Record Q2 Results and Strong Guidance Applied Materials reported record Q2 revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year-over-year, and provided strong guidance, driven by AI-related demand for its chipmaking equipment.

    This is the core positive event that directly boosted investor confidence and the stock price.

  • New AI Products and Partnerships The company launched new AI-focused products like the SENZ platform and HBM tools, and announced partnerships with EssilorLuxottica, Qualcomm, and GlobalFoundries, expanding its technology reach.

    These initiatives signal future growth and innovation, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

  • Analyst Upgrades and Positive Industry Outlook Analysts at Citi, BofA, and Wells Fargo raised price targets to $710-$720, citing raised wafer fab equipment (WFE) forecasts and a $500B+ Korea chip hub by Samsung/SK Hynix that promises sustained orders.

    Upgrades and industry investments reflect growing confidence in Applied Materials' prospects.

  • Valuation and Geopolitical Risks Despite optimism, risks include China revenue concentration (24%) facing export-control threats, a stretched valuation near 55-60x earnings, an SK Hynix memory slowdown that triggered an 8.3% selloff, and bearish bets by Michael Burry.

    These factors counterbalanced the positive drivers and contributed to volatility, highlighting key risks.

June 2026
▲3▼1

Applied Materials Surges on AI Demand and Record Q2 Results

  • Record Q2 Results and Strong Guidance Applied Materials reported record Q2 revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year-over-year, and provided strong guidance, driven by AI-related demand for its chipmaking equipment.

    This is the core positive event that directly boosted investor confidence and the stock price.

  • New AI Products and Partnerships The company launched new AI-focused products like the SENZ platform and HBM tools, and announced partnerships with EssilorLuxottica, Qualcomm, and GlobalFoundries, expanding its technology reach.

    These initiatives signal future growth and innovation, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

  • Analyst Upgrades and Positive Industry Outlook Analysts at Citi, BofA, and Wells Fargo raised price targets to $710-$720, citing raised wafer fab equipment (WFE) forecasts and a $500B+ Korea chip hub by Samsung/SK Hynix that promises sustained orders.

    Upgrades and industry investments reflect growing confidence in Applied Materials' prospects.

  • Valuation and Geopolitical Risks Despite optimism, risks include China revenue concentration (24%) facing export-control threats, a stretched valuation near 55-60x earnings, an SK Hynix memory slowdown that triggered an 8.3% selloff, and bearish bets by Michael Burry.

    These factors counterbalanced the positive drivers and contributed to volatility, highlighting key risks.

▲2▼2

AMAT Hits Record on $500B Korea Chip Bet, Then Slides on Valuation Fears

  • Samsung and SK Hynix's $500B+ Korea chip hub investment South Korea announced Samsung and SK Hynix will invest over $500 billion in a new chip-making hub, with an additional $53 billion for packaging. This decade-long buildout means sustained orders for Applied Materials' equipment, pushing the stock up 6% to a record high.

    This is the biggest new demand catalyst in the period, directly driving AMAT's record stock price.

  • BofA and Wells Fargo raise price targets, citing 30%+ equipment growth BofA lifted its target to $720 and raised its 2030 chip market forecast to $2.7 trillion. Wells Fargo went to $715. Both cite Applied Materials' guidance for over 30% equipment growth in 2026, driven by AI demand and partnerships with TSMC, Micron, and SK Hynix.

    Analyst upgrades reflect and reinforce the positive demand outlook, directly lifting investor expectations for AMAT.

  • Chipmaker selloff and Michael Burry's bearish bet AMAT fell over 9% in a broad chip selloff, and Michael Burry disclosed put options against it, signaling fears that AI optimism is overpriced. The stock trades at nearly 55 times earnings, more than double the S&P 500, making it vulnerable to any disappointment.

    This is the main counterweight, showing real risks that could push the stock down despite strong fundamentals.

  • Divestiture of SmartFactory Rx and weak free cash flow Applied Materials sold its pharmaceutical manufacturing intelligence platform, losing a future revenue stream. Separately, an 80% plunge in free cash flow despite record revenue and insider selling by the CEO raised financial concerns, adding to the bear case.

    These are new negative developments that could weigh on AMAT's valuation and investor confidence.

▲2▼1

AI Demand Drives New Products and Record Valuation, But Memory Slowdown Sparks Sell-Off

  • AI Demand Pushes Valuation Above Dot-Com Peak Applied Materials now trades at nearly 60 times earnings, above its late-1990s peak, as AI fuels a multi-year chip manufacturing expansion. Record quarterly revenue and earnings beat expectations, and industry forecasts see global semiconductor revenue surpassing $1 trillion in 2026. This strong demand supports higher equipment sales and profits, pushing the stock up.

    Explains the core AI-driven demand that is lifting AMAT's valuation and earnings outlook.

  • New AI-Focused Chipmaking Tools and Partnerships Applied Materials launched new chipmaking systems for AI and advanced packaging, including tools for stacking high-bandwidth memory, and signed a long-term deal with EssilorLuxottica for AI glasses. These products and partnerships expand its addressable market and drove the stock to an all-time high of $669.22, up 13.4%.

    Highlights new product launches and partnerships that directly boost future revenue potential.

  • Memory Slowdown Triggers Broad Semiconductor Sell-Off A report that SK Hynix is slowing its high-bandwidth memory expansion caused a global sell-off in chip stocks. Applied Materials fell 8.3% as investors worried that heavy AI infrastructure spending may not keep delivering strong returns. The drop reflects concerns about demand sustainability and high valuations, creating a real counterweight to the AI optimism.

    Shows a significant risk factor that pulled AMAT's stock down sharply during the period.

▲3▼1

Applied Materials Surges on AI Demand, New Products, and Analyst Upgrades

  • New SENZ platform and partnerships drive analyst upgrades Applied Materials unveiled its SENZ platform for AI smart glasses and announced partnerships with EssilorLuxottica, GlobalFoundries, and Qualcomm. Analysts responded by raising price targets, with Citi lifting its target to $710 from $550. The stock jumped 6.7% intraday and closed up 4.8% at $597.77.

    This is a major new product and partnership announcement that directly triggered analyst upgrades and a sharp stock move.

  • Record Q2 results and strong guidance confirm AI-driven growth Applied Materials reported record revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.86, up 20%. Management guided next quarter to $8.95 billion revenue and $3.36 EPS. The Semiconductor Systems segment hit record revenue with margin expansion, and the company expects its semiconductor equipment business to grow over 30% this year.

    These record financial results and upbeat guidance are the fundamental drivers behind the stock's recent surge and analyst optimism.

  • Citi raises WFE spending forecasts, boosting equipment demand outlook Citi updated its wafer fab equipment spending forecasts, projecting bull-case spending of $145 billion in 2026, $200 billion in 2027, and $250 billion in 2028. The firm cited capacity constraints at TSMC and memory makers, and rising AI-driven NAND demand. This supports higher demand for Applied Materials' products.

    This analyst forecast directly raises the demand outlook for semiconductor equipment, a key driver for AMAT's revenue and stock price.

  • China revenue concentration poses geopolitical risk China accounted for 24% of Applied Materials' revenue from its two core segments in the most recent quarter, down from 27% the prior quarter. U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor technology to China already exist, and broader restrictions could abruptly cut off a major revenue stream. The stock's high P/E multiple of 55.3 makes it vulnerable to any disruption.

    This highlights a significant risk factor that could negatively impact AMAT's stock if geopolitical tensions escalate.

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