HSBC Upgrades BP and TotalEnergies to Buy, Lifts Oil Sector Targets

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Summary · why it matters

HSBC upgraded BP and TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold on Friday, raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage after lifting its Brent crude, refining margin, and gas price forecasts. Analysts led by Kim Fustier raised their 2026 Brent assumption to approximately $90 per barrel from $80, and their 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, citing a partial, gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows, while also raising the second-half 2026 TTF gas price forecast to $22.5 per million British thermal units from $16.7 and the 2027 forecast to $17 from $12. The revisions lifted HSBC's 2026-28 earnings-per-share estimates across the sector by averages of 19%, 65% and 33%, respectively, with cash flow per share estimates rising by averages of 12%, 30% and 14%, and the largest revisions falling on international majors given their combined upstream, refining and trading exposure. For BP, HSBC raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence, implying nearly 18% upside, and for TotalEnergies it raised its target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside. HSBC retained Buy ratings on Shell, Repsol and Chevron, raising Chevron's price target to $250 from $218 and expecting it to lift its annual buyback run rate to $15 billion from $10-12 billion, while Eni, Equinor, Galp and ExxonMobil stayed at Hold and OMV remained at Reduce.

Impact on assets 12

Energy▲ · 6 stocks
TotalEnergies SE
TTE
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

HSBC upgraded TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside, on higher Brent, refining margin and gas price forecasts.

Chevron Corp
CVX
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

HSBC retained Buy on Chevron and raised its price target to $250 from $218, expecting buyback run rate to rise to $15B.

Repsol S.A.
REP
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

HSBC retained its Buy rating on Repsol while raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage on higher Brent, refining margin and gas forecasts.

Eni S.p.A.
ENI
± MixedCapitalrelevance

HSBC kept Eni at Hold, not upgraded, though sector-wide earnings and cash flow estimates were raised on higher Brent, refining margin and gas forecasts.

OMV Aktiengesellschaft
OMV
± MixedCapitalrelevance

OMV remained at Reduce in HSBC's note even as the broker lifted sector-wide earnings and cash flow estimates on higher oil, refining margin and gas price forecasts.

Equinor ASA ADR
EQNR
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Equinor stayed at Hold in HSBC's sector-wide estimate and target revisions; no company-specific upgrade.

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 4 stocks
BP PLC
BP
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

HSBC upgraded BP to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence.

Shell plc
SHEL
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

HSBC retained its Buy rating on Shell amid raised sector earnings and cash flow estimates.

Galp Energia Nom
0B67
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Galp remained at Hold in HSBC's oil coverage update with no rating change.

Exxon Mobil Corp
XOM
± MixedCapitalrelevance

ExxonMobil stayed at Hold in HSBC's sector review with no rating or target change.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 1

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