Commerzbank: Ringgit Falls Fourth Session to 4.07 on Equity Outflows
Commerzbank notes USD/MYR has risen to 4.07, marking a fourth consecutive session of Ringgit weakness, weighed by foreign portfolio outflows from Malaysian equities. The bank points to a hawkish tilt from Bank Negara Malaysia as a factor limiting further downside for the currency.
Commerzbank reports that Bank Negara Malaysia's hawkish shift is supporting the Malaysian ringgit, as the central bank held its overnight policy rate at 2.75% while dropping language that policy is "appropriate" and signaling vigilance on cost pressures.
Malaysia's central bank holds rates, wary of price pressures from Middle East uncertainty
Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, decided at its monetary policy meeting on the 3rd to hold the policy rate at 2.75%. This was in line with market expectations, though some had predicted a rate hike of more than three years due to rising inflation risks. The central bank had cut rates for the first time in five years in July 2025, and has since held steady, marking the seventh consecutive meeting without a change. In its statement, the central bank noted that elevated global commodity prices stemming from the Middle East conflict are putting upward pressure on domestic inflation, and due to the time lag in passing on energy costs to consumer prices, inflation is expected to remain elevated. Meanwhile, economic growth in the first half of 2026 was strong at 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth forecast for 2026 was raised from the previous 4-5% to around 5%. The market sees a possibility of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in January 2027 due to Middle East uncertainty. The next meeting is scheduled for November 5.
OCBC Upgrades Asian FX Forecasts, KRW and MYR Lead
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong have recalibrated their Asian FX forecasts slightly firmer against the US dollar, with more notable upgrades for the South Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit. The adjustments reflect a modest improvement in the outlook for these currencies relative to the dollar, though the overall tone remains cautious. The revised forecasts suggest that the won and ringgit are expected to perform better than previously anticipated, while other Asian currencies see only marginal changes. This recalibration comes amid ongoing global market dynamics and shifts in investor sentiment toward the region.
Goldman Sachs is bullish on the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, arguing that the artificial intelligence investment boom now shapes Asia's foreign exchange market. The bank ranks those currencies above energy importers such as the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah, which it expects to keep lagging. Goldman economists forecast South Korea's current account surplus will almost double to roughly 300 billion dollars this year, equal to 13.9% of GDP, while Taiwan's surplus is projected to reach 25% of GDP. The Malaysian ringgit is supported by resilient AI-led growth, strong exports, and sustained foreign direct investment. Market data shows all three AI-linked currencies have lost ground against the dollar index in 2026, with the won down 1.64%, the ringgit down 0.67%, and the Taiwan dollar down 3.05%, yet they have outperformed energy importers like the baht, which fell 5.97%, and the rupiah, which dropped 7.30%.
External risks weigh on Malaysian Ringgit against US Dollar, OCBC says
OCBC notes that the Malaysian Ringgit has weakened against the US Dollar, with USD/MYR rising on renewed US–Iran tensions and broader risk-off sentiment. This occurred despite stronger Malaysian Gross Domestic Product and better foreign equity flows.
Malaysian Ringgit supported by strong Q2 GDP growth, says Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts report that Malaysia's stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and subdued inflation support an unchanged policy rate of 2.75%. The US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate has remained within a 4.05 to 4.10 range, recently edging higher alongside crude oil prices.
Johor result keeps policy continuity, limited MYR impact – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Barisan Nasional’s strong win in Johor reinforces UMNO’s political momentum but leaves federal policy continuity intact, limiting immediate implications for the Malaysian Ringgit.
Key overseas events on the 9th include the release of US initial jobless claims at 9:30 PM. US existing home sales for June will be released at 11:00 PM. Bank Negara Malaysia will announce its policy rate. The Eurogroup will hold an informal meeting of eurozone finance ministers. The US will auction 30-year Treasury bonds. On the earnings front, PepsiCo will report its results.