Palladium Futures

Greenland Mines Ltd announced the successful completion of its more than two-month 2026 field program at the Skaergaard Project in southeast Greenland, a campaign the company describes as one of the largest and most comprehensive modern multidisciplinary efforts undertaken at the site. The program completed 4,480 meters of diamond drilling across 17 holes, including the first large-diameter HQ core ever recovered at Skaergaard, and extracted more than 105 tons of bulk material from mapped and channel-sampled gold and palladium-platinum mineralized horizons, an unprecedented scale-up from the two approximately 800-kilogram historical mini-bulk samples. The company's July 2026 S-K 1300 Mineral Resource Estimate reported 15.00 million ounces PdEq in Indicated Mineral Resources and 17.49 million ounces PdEq in Inferred Mineral Resources, covering only approximately one-quarter to one-third of the intrusion hosting the defined precious-metal horizons. Greenland Mines said potential vanadium-bearing titanomagnetite, iron and gallium value streams are being evaluated alongside the palladium-platinum-gold flowsheet, with gallium occurring throughout Skaergaard's mineralized horizons, though no economic credit is currently assigned to these potential by-products. The campaign also delivered the first integrated mining-oriented geotechnical, structural, LiDAR, high-resolution aeromagnetic, ground-penetrating radar and environmental baseline programs across priority development areas, with the data intended to advance Skaergaard toward metallurgical flowsheet development, mine planning and an Initial Assessment, the S-K 1300 equivalent of a Preliminary Economic Assessment.

UBS has raised its near-term palladium price forecasts, citing a tighter-than-expected supply picture that should put a floor under the metal even as its long-term prospects darken. The Swiss bank said prices had held up better than anticipated, with palladium recently trading at $1,327 an ounce. UBS lifted its December 2026 and March 2027 forecasts by $200 an ounce each, and its June 2027 forecast by $100. Global mine output fell in 2025 and is expected to shrink again this year, hit by declining ore quality in Russia and by South African producers holding back on investment to protect cash. UBS reckons the market is now balanced to slightly undersupplied rather than in the surplus it had once expected, as hybrid cars and palladium's growing discount to platinum keep demand stickier than feared, though the longer-term view stays gloomy as electric vehicles gradually erode palladium's core market.

UBS told clients in a note Thursday that it prefers gold over platinum heading into the fourth quarter, citing weaker fundamentals for the white metal after a second consecutive quarterly surplus. Strategist Giovanni Staunovo said the platinum market was oversupplied again in the second quarter, and the World Platinum Investment Council estimated that surplus at 244,000 ounces, equivalent to 15% of global demand, while revising the first-quarter surplus higher to 304,000 ounces. For the full year, the council now sees a surplus of 265,000 ounces, a sharp swing from a previously forecast deficit, driven primarily by weaker investment demand. Staunovo attributed the oversupply to recovering mine supply in South Africa and Zimbabwe after last year's flooding, higher scrap volumes and softer demand, with Chinese jewelry demand weakening and autocatalyst demand falling as rising electric-vehicle adoption cut production of combustion-engine cars. He added that with platinum again more expensive than palladium, new vehicle models may revert to palladium-based catalysts, and that UBS forecasts point to modest downside from current levels in the near term followed by broadly sideways prices over the next 12 months.

Impala Platinum Holdings reported record financial results for fiscal year 2026, with revenue surging 58% to ZAR 135.1 billion and EBITDA margin expanding from 12% to 32%. The company generated free cash flow of ZAR 22 billion, enabling it to return approximately 90% of second-half free cash flow to shareholders, including a final dividend of ZAR 14.45 per share totaling ZAR 13.1 billion. Headline earnings reached ZAR 22.9 billion, or ZAR 25.48 per share, while basic earnings were ZAR 31 billion, supported by a ZAR 8.1 billion after-tax reversal of impairment losses. The company ended the period with net cash of ZAR 22 billion and liquidity headroom of ZAR 37 billion. Looking ahead, management guided for flat production in fiscal 2027, with a 60,000-ounce impact from a safety reset at Rustenburg and unit costs expected to rise 4-8% due to inflation and planned maintenance. CEO Nico Muller noted that the Styldrift 2 project is in the concept study phase, with a typical timeline of five years to completion, and confirmed the company is not currently considering diversification into metals beyond PGMs.

Global gold prices surged 2.4% to $4,175.53 per ounce, the highest level in one month, during Wednesday trading, supported by a weaker US dollar and falling oil prices. Spot gold rose for a third consecutive day, while US gold futures gained 2% to $4,235.30 per ounce. Investors are watching US employment data to assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction. Meanwhile, softer oil prices helped ease inflation concerns, leading the market to scale back expectations of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting. Other precious metals also advanced, with silver up 3.8% to $61.76 per ounce, platinum up 2.6% to $1,779.25 per ounce, and palladium up 2.6% to $1,389.15 per ounce.