Moncler SpA

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of 10 European luxury stocks, assigning Buy ratings to just four, as it argued that muted sector growth will not last and that 2027 will mark a turning point after three years of post-COVID normalization. Analysts led by Erwan Rambourg said the slowdown in sales has been driven less by macro headwinds than by aggressive pricing and a slower pace of innovation, both potentially linked to a degree of strategic inertia, noting that traditional luxury brands raised prices by about 60% between mid-2019 and mid-2026. Goldman forecasts organic sales growth for its coverage rising from 6% in 2026, on depressed 2024 and 2025 comparisons, to 7% in 2027, with the sector reverting to mid-single-digit growth, and expects U.S. outperformance to extend into 2027 and beyond, a mechanical rebound in the Middle East and stabilizing sales in China, while Europe stays muted apart from American tourist flows. The four Buy-rated stocks are Richemont, LVMH, Moncler and Prada, with price targets of CHF225, €500, €62 and HK$52 respectively. Goldman initiated Kering, Burberry and Brunello Cucinelli at Neutral and kept Zegna at Neutral, while starting Hermes and Swatch at Sell.

Europe's biggest luxury firms are turning more positive on the crucial Chinese market as a fragile spending recovery takes shape. Chinese household consumption is stabilizing and even rebounding in some categories like high-end cosmetics, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. Earnings estimates point to a pickup in performance, with Gucci-owner Kering expected to return to sales growth in the region including China by the fourth quarter, while Burberry reported a 9% jump in retail sales in Greater China in the most recent quarter. LVMH said China appears to be stabilizing after several quarters of deterioration, and smaller players like Moncler are also well positioned. The spending boost is primarily driven by high-net-worth consumers, with the key debate centering on whether improving sentiment can broaden beyond affluent shoppers.