Rubber TSR20 vs Natural Rubber (RSS): why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Rubber TSR20 (RUBBER_TSR20.COMM)

Q3 20265 Aug – 18 Sep 2026

▲4

US tariff exemption for rubber gloves The US exempted rubber gloves from tariffs, which could increase demand for natural rubber used in gloves. This supports prices because more glove production means more rubber needed.
This is a new policy change that boosts demand for natural rubber.
El Niño threatens Southeast Asian supply El Niño is now 95% likely, threatening rubber output in Southeast Asia. Firms like NER cut targets and delayed expansion, which tightens supply and pushes prices higher.
This is a new weather event that reduces supply and drives prices up.
Heavy rain cuts Thai and Indonesian supply Heavy rain in Thailand and Indonesia reduced rubber supply, pushing futures to near 10-year highs. This tight supply is a key reason prices climbed during the quarter.
This is a new supply disruption that directly caused price increases.
Strong earnings and pricing power Strong earnings from STA and TEGH confirmed pricing power, with prices up 29.7% year-on-year. This shows companies can pass on higher costs, supporting rubber prices.
This is new evidence of pricing power that supports higher prices.

September 202626 Aug – 18 Sep 2026

▲4

Heavy rain cuts Thai and Indonesian rubber supply Heavy rain in Thailand and Indonesia is reducing rubber output, with Indonesia's production possibly down 25% this year. Less rubber available pushes prices up. Analysts now expect Thai output to fall about 5%, and this tight supply is the main force lifting natural rubber prices.
This is the core new supply shock driving prices higher this period.
Rubber futures hit near 10-year highs Tokyo and Singapore rubber futures jumped to their highest in almost ten years, with SICOM TSR20 above 240 US cents per kilogram. This shows the market is pricing in tight supply and strong demand, and it pulls physical rubber prices up with it.
It confirms the price move is real and broad, not just one company's view.
EUDR rubber sales set to double in Q4 STA expects EUDR-compliant rubber sales to double to about 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter, as European buyers resume orders before the EU deforestation rule takes effect. This adds higher-priced demand for natural rubber, supporting prices.
It is a new demand source that tightens the market further.
Natural rubber stays cheaper than synthetic Natural rubber remains about 20% cheaper than synthetic rubber, so glove and tire makers are switching to natural rubber. This steady extra demand helps keep prices high even as overall tire demand grows only 1-3%.
It explains a real demand pull that supports prices beyond supply worries.

Latest26 Aug – 18 Sep 2026

▲4

Heavy rain cuts Thai and Indonesian rubber supply Heavy rain in Thailand and Indonesia is reducing rubber output, with Indonesia's production possibly down 25% this year. Less rubber available pushes prices up. Analysts now expect Thai output to fall about 5%, and this tight supply is the main force lifting natural rubber prices.
This is the core new supply shock driving prices higher this period.
Rubber futures hit near 10-year highs Tokyo and Singapore rubber futures jumped to their highest in almost ten years, with SICOM TSR20 above 240 US cents per kilogram. This shows the market is pricing in tight supply and strong demand, and it pulls physical rubber prices up with it.
It confirms the price move is real and broad, not just one company's view.
EUDR rubber sales set to double in Q4 STA expects EUDR-compliant rubber sales to double to about 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter, as European buyers resume orders before the EU deforestation rule takes effect. This adds higher-priced demand for natural rubber, supporting prices.
It is a new demand source that tightens the market further.
Natural rubber stays cheaper than synthetic Natural rubber remains about 20% cheaper than synthetic rubber, so glove and tire makers are switching to natural rubber. This steady extra demand helps keep prices high even as overall tire demand grows only 1-3%.
It explains a real demand pull that supports prices beyond supply worries.

August 20265 Aug – 20 Aug 2026

▲4

US tariff exemption for rubber gloves could boost demand Thailand is seeking US tariff exemptions for rubber gloves, which would lower costs for US buyers and increase demand for natural rubber used in gloves. This supports higher rubber prices.
New trade policy could directly increase demand for rubber, pushing prices up.
Major rubber firms cut sales targets and delay expansion due to El Niño NER lowered its 2026 sales target and postponed a new factory because El Niño may reduce rubber output. This signals tighter future supply, which tends to raise prices.
Supply cuts from major producers directly reduce availability, supporting higher prices.
Strong quarterly earnings and higher selling prices for rubber producers STA and TEGH reported strong profits with average rubber prices up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter and 29.7% year-on-year. This confirms robust demand and pricing power, supporting higher rubber prices.
Earnings and price data show strong demand and pricing, reinforcing upward price pressure.
Super El Niño probability jumps to 95%, threatening Southeast Asian rubber output A super El Niño is now 95% likely, which could cause drought and lower rubber production in Southeast Asia. Reduced supply would push natural rubber prices higher.
Extreme weather is a major supply risk that directly supports higher rubber prices.

5 Aug – 20 Aug 2026

▲4

US tariff exemption for rubber gloves could boost demand Thailand is seeking US tariff exemptions for rubber gloves, which would lower costs for US buyers and increase demand for natural rubber used in gloves. This supports higher rubber prices.
New trade policy could directly increase demand for rubber, pushing prices up.
Major rubber firms cut sales targets and delay expansion due to El Niño NER lowered its 2026 sales target and postponed a new factory because El Niño may reduce rubber output. This signals tighter future supply, which tends to raise prices.
Supply cuts from major producers directly reduce availability, supporting higher prices.
Strong quarterly earnings and higher selling prices for rubber producers STA and TEGH reported strong profits with average rubber prices up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter and 29.7% year-on-year. This confirms robust demand and pricing power, supporting higher rubber prices.
Earnings and price data show strong demand and pricing, reinforcing upward price pressure.
Super El Niño probability jumps to 95%, threatening Southeast Asian rubber output A super El Niño is now 95% likely, which could cause drought and lower rubber production in Southeast Asia. Reduced supply would push natural rubber prices higher.
Extreme weather is a major supply risk that directly supports higher rubber prices.