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RTX vs Thai Airways International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

RTX Corporation (RTX)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

RTX Soars on Record Backlog, Tomahawk Deal, and Raised Guidance

  • Record $289B Backlog and Major Contract Wins RTX won a $22.9B Tomahawk deal, a £2B UK training contract, and $3.3B in new orders, pushing backlog to a record $289B. This signals strong demand and future revenue growth.

    These new contracts and record backlog are key drivers of investor optimism and stock price.

  • Q2 Earnings Beat and Raised 2026 Guidance RTX beat Q2 expectations and raised 2026 EPS guidance to $7.10–7.25, with roughly $8.6B free cash flow expected. This reflects operational strength and boosts investor confidence.

    Earnings beat and guidance raise directly influence stock price by improving future earnings outlook.

  • Pratt & Whitney Aftermarket Growth and F-35 Saudi Sale Pratt & Whitney's aftermarket business grew, and a proposed $24.3B F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia added upside. These developments support revenue and long-term demand.

    Aftermarket growth and potential F-35 sale are positive catalysts for RTX's financial performance.

  • Risks: Oil Prices, Pentagon Budget Stalemate, F-35 Overruns Oil above $100 and possible Fed rate hikes could squeeze commercial aerospace. A stalled $1.5T Pentagon budget threatens funding timing, while F-35 cost overruns and upgrade delays pressure future orders.

    These risks could negatively impact RTX's commercial and defense segments, weighing on the stock.

September 2026
▲3▼1

RTX Backlog Hits $289B as Missile and Engine Demand Surges

  • Record $289B Backlog and Strong Cash Flow Outlook CEO Calio said RTX's backlog is about $289 billion, excluding five major munitions framework deals and the $23 billion Tomahawk contract. He guided to roughly $8.6 billion of 2026 free cash flow and 19%-20% Collins margins, signaling years of steady sales and cash generation.

    This is the clearest new big-picture signal of RTX's growth runway and financial health.

  • New Defense Contracts and International Demand RTX won a $472 million Chinook avionics contract, completed NASAMS delivery to Australia, and the Pentagon added SM-3 interceptor work. A proposed $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia includes 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines. These add future revenue and show global demand for RTX weapons and engines.

    These fresh awards and foreign sales directly expand RTX's order book and revenue visibility.

  • Pratt & Whitney Aftermarket and Engine Expansion Pratt & Whitney's GTF aftermarket network grew to 21 facilities and shop visits rose 26%, driving recurring maintenance revenue. Pratt also licensed Hermeus to build F100 fighter engines, adding U.S. production capacity. Pratt sales rose to $32.9 billion from $28.1 billion, with operating profit up to $2.6 billion.

    This shows RTX's commercial engine business is growing profitably and adding capacity for future demand.

  • Trade Tensions Threaten Bombardier Avionics Sales A potential U.S. ban on Bombardier aircraft sales could hurt RTX's Collins Aerospace, which supplies avionics for Bombardier's Global and Challenger jets. The U.S. is Bombardier's largest market, and a ban could disrupt a supply chain involving thousands of U.S. companies, creating uncertainty for RTX's avionics revenue.

    This is the main counterweight in the period, showing a real risk to part of RTX's business.

Latest
▲3▼1

RTX Backlog Hits $289B as Missile and Engine Demand Surges

  • Record $289B Backlog and Strong Cash Flow Outlook CEO Calio said RTX's backlog is about $289 billion, excluding five major munitions framework deals and the $23 billion Tomahawk contract. He guided to roughly $8.6 billion of 2026 free cash flow and 19%-20% Collins margins, signaling years of steady sales and cash generation.

    This is the clearest new big-picture signal of RTX's growth runway and financial health.

  • New Defense Contracts and International Demand RTX won a $472 million Chinook avionics contract, completed NASAMS delivery to Australia, and the Pentagon added SM-3 interceptor work. A proposed $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia includes 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines. These add future revenue and show global demand for RTX weapons and engines.

    These fresh awards and foreign sales directly expand RTX's order book and revenue visibility.

  • Pratt & Whitney Aftermarket and Engine Expansion Pratt & Whitney's GTF aftermarket network grew to 21 facilities and shop visits rose 26%, driving recurring maintenance revenue. Pratt also licensed Hermeus to build F100 fighter engines, adding U.S. production capacity. Pratt sales rose to $32.9 billion from $28.1 billion, with operating profit up to $2.6 billion.

    This shows RTX's commercial engine business is growing profitably and adding capacity for future demand.

  • Trade Tensions Threaten Bombardier Avionics Sales A potential U.S. ban on Bombardier aircraft sales could hurt RTX's Collins Aerospace, which supplies avionics for Bombardier's Global and Challenger jets. The U.S. is Bombardier's largest market, and a ban could disrupt a supply chain involving thousands of U.S. companies, creating uncertainty for RTX's avionics revenue.

    This is the main counterweight in the period, showing a real risk to part of RTX's business.

August 2026
▲2▼2

RTX Rides Defense Demand Surge, But Budget and F-35 Risks Loom

  • Raytheon Wins $22.9B Tomahawk Contract Raytheon won a seven-year, $22.9B Tomahawk contract, raising annual output from 60 to over 1,000 missiles and adding roughly $3.3B in yearly revenue. This significantly boosts RTX's long-term backlog and revenue visibility.

    This is the largest new contract win in the period, directly driving RTX's revenue growth and backlog.

  • Additional Defense Awards and Expansion RTX also secured $1.28B for SM-3 IIA and TOW missiles, F135 engine work, missile testing, and a $50M Mississippi plant expansion. These wins reinforce strong demand across multiple defense programs.

    These additional contracts and investments show broad-based demand and capacity expansion, supporting future growth.

  • Stalled Pentagon Budget Delays Funding A stalled $1.5T Pentagon budget and political disputes could delay funding for defense programs. This creates uncertainty for RTX's revenue timing and order flow.

    This is a key risk that could slow down the positive momentum from new contracts.

  • F-35 Cost Overrun and Upgrade Delays The F-35 program's cost overrun has grown to $536B, with upgrade delays that may pressure RTX's future orders or pricing. This poses a risk to a major revenue source.

    This is a significant program-specific risk that could impact RTX's financials and future contracts.

▲3▼1

RTX Lands $22.9B Tomahawk Deal, Expands Missile and Engine Work

  • Raytheon's $22.9B Tomahawk Contract Raytheon won a seven-year, $22.9 billion Navy contract to boost Tomahawk production from 60 to over 1,000 missiles a year. This locks in roughly $3.3 billion in annual revenue, directly lifting RTX's backlog and future sales.

    This is the single largest new order and the main reason RTX is moving.

  • New Missile and Engine Contracts Raytheon began testing a new long-range air-to-air missile, Collins finished altitude testing on an F-35 cooling system, and RTX won a $240.75 million Navy contract for F135 engine work. These add future revenue and keep RTX tied to key defense programs.

    These are fresh contract wins and technology milestones that support future growth.

  • Raytheon Expands Mississippi Plant Raytheon completed a $50 million expansion of its Forest, Mississippi plant, adding 100 jobs and capacity for electronic warfare and radar systems. This helps RTX produce more of the gear the Pentagon urgently wants, supporting future sales.

    It shows RTX investing to meet demand, which supports revenue growth.

  • F-35 Cost Overrun Raises Questions The F-35 program's acquisition cost rose by $51 billion to $536 billion, with delays in upgrades. As a major supplier, RTX could face pressure on future orders or pricing, though the program remains huge and long-term.

    It is the main counterweight to the positive news and affects RTX's F-35 work.

▲3

Pentagon Pushes RTX to Speed Missile Output as Orders Flow

  • Pentagon demands faster weapons production The Pentagon told RTX and other contractors to speed up deliveries of missile interceptors and air-defense gear, giving them 21 days to submit plans. This urgency signals more orders ahead, lifting RTX's future revenue and stock.

    This is the period's main new force: a direct government push that expands RTX's order pipeline.

  • New $1.28B Raytheon contract awards Raytheon won two U.S. contracts worth $1.28 billion: $745 million for SM-3 IIA interceptors and $536 million for TOW missiles. These add to RTX's backlog and lock in revenue, supporting the stock.

    Concrete new orders show the demand push is turning into real money for RTX.

  • Boeing framework to expand SM-3 output Boeing signed seven-year agreements with the Pentagon and Raytheon to boost production of SM-3 interceptor parts. As prime contractor, Raytheon benefits from higher output, which should increase future sales and profit.

    It shows RTX's supply chain is being expanded to meet demand, a new positive for future revenue.

  • Missile shortage debate and funding risk Trump denied missile shortages, but reports say Patriot stocks fell over 65% and a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget is stalled in Congress. Shortages drive urgent orders, but political fights could delay funding, creating uncertainty for RTX.

    It is the real counterweight: demand is high, but funding and political risk could slow the benefit.

July 2026
▲3

RTX Surges on Defense Demand, Record Backlog, and Raised Guidance

  • NATO Summit Unlocks $57B Procurement NATO's Ankara summit unlocked $57B in procurement, and Germany agreed to buy Tomahawks and Typhon launchers. This boosts demand for RTX's defense products and supports revenue growth.

    This is a major new demand driver that directly benefits RTX's defense segment.

  • RTX Wins Multiple Contracts Worth Billions RTX won a £2B UK training deal, a $1.1B Navy missile award, and $3.3B in new orders. These contracts add to backlog and signal strong global demand for RTX's defense offerings.

    New contract wins are a direct positive catalyst for future revenue and earnings.

  • Q2 Beat and Raised 2026 Guidance Q2 results beat expectations, prompting raised 2026 EPS guidance of $7.10–7.25 and a record $289B backlog, up 22%. This reflects strong execution and robust demand across defense and aerospace.

    Earnings beat and guidance raise are key drivers of stock price appreciation.

  • Commercial Wins Offset by Macro Risks British Airways selected GTF engines, a commercial win. However, oil above $100 and 83% odds of a September Fed rate hike could squeeze RTX's commercial aerospace business, even as defense demand remains strong.

    This highlights both a positive commercial development and significant macroeconomic headwinds.

▲4

RTX Wins $3.3B in New Orders; Q2 Beat Already Known

  • Pentagon $18.2B Missile Replenishment Boosts RTX The Pentagon's $67B emergency funding request includes $18.2B to replace advanced missiles, with $3.28B specifically for RTX's Standard Missile interceptors. This directly increases demand for RTX weapons, adding to its backlog and future revenue, which supports the stock price.

    This is a new, concrete funding request that directly benefits RTX's missile business, a key growth driver.

  • Pratt & Whitney Wins $1.3B F135 Sustainment Contract Pratt & Whitney received a $1.3B contract modification for F135 engine spare parts for the F-35 program. This long-term sustainment work provides steady aftermarket revenue and strengthens RTX's defense backlog, pushing the stock up.

    This is a new contract award that adds to RTX's backlog and demonstrates ongoing demand for its engine services.

  • Pratt & Whitney Canada Wins $1B Military Engine Overhaul Pratt & Whitney Canada won a nine-year, $1B contract to overhaul PT6A-68 engines for the U.S. military's T-6 trainer fleet. This adds long-term revenue visibility and reinforces RTX's military sustainment business, supporting the stock.

    This is a new contract award that adds to RTX's backlog and shows strength in its military engine services.

  • British Airways Selects Pratt & Whitney GTF Engines British Airways chose Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for up to 63 Airbus A320neo aircraft, including a 12-year maintenance agreement. This commercial win adds to RTX's engine order backlog and future service revenue, boosting the stock.

    This is a new commercial order that expands RTX's GTF engine backlog and aftermarket services.

▲3

RTX Beats Q2, Raises 2026 Outlook on Record $289B Backlog

  • Q2 beat and raised 2026 guidance RTX reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.89 on $24.7B sales, up 16% organically, and raised 2026 sales to $95–96B and EPS to $7.10–$7.25. Higher profit and cash flow expectations make the stock more valuable, pushing shares up 7%.

    This is the core new event that directly drove the stock's jump this period.

  • Record $289B backlog on Pentagon restocking RTX's backlog hit a record $289B, up 22%, with $119B in defense orders. Raytheon booked nearly $20B in awards and a 2.42 book-to-bill ratio. A bigger backlog means future revenue is already largely locked in, supporting the stock.

    The record backlog is a new milestone that explains the demand behind the raised outlook.

  • Global conflicts deplete stockpiles, driving orders The U.S. has used over 50,000 rockets and missiles since the Russia-Ukraine war and strikes on Iran, forcing the Pentagon to restock. This steady demand for RTX weapons and maintenance lifts revenue and supports the stock.

    It explains the real-world force behind the surge in orders and guidance.

  • Oil above $100 and Fed rate-hike odds weigh on market Brent crude topped $100 on Middle East strikes, and investors see an 83% chance of a September rate hike. Higher fuel and borrowing costs could squeeze airlines and the broader economy, a headwind for RTX's commercial aerospace business even as defense demand stays strong.

    It is the main counterweight this period, showing a risk that could offset defense gains.

▲4

RTX Wins New Missile, Radar and Space Contracts as Backlog Swells

  • New defense contracts add billions to backlog RTX won a $1.1B Navy missile deal, a $310M Space Force radar modernization award, and smaller contracts for missile and aircraft parts. These add to its record $271B backlog and support future revenue, pushing the stock up.

    Directly shows new orders that drive RTX's revenue and profit growth.

  • Strong demand from rising global defense budgets A proposed $1.45 trillion U.S. defense budget for 2027 and NATO's pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 are fueling demand. RTX's Raytheon unit is even studying expanding AMRAAM missile production in Europe.

    Explains the big-picture tailwind behind RTX's order growth.

  • Technology investments boost efficiency and future sales Collins Aerospace opened a UK center for electric thrust reversers, Pratt & Whitney bought AI software to speed engine inspections, and Raytheon is building a large space telescope. These moves cut costs and open new markets, supporting the stock.

    Shows how RTX is investing to improve margins and win future business.

  • RTX seen as a stable alternative to SpaceX With SpaceX posting big losses, analysts highlight RTX as a profitable, dividend-paying way to invest in space and defense. RTX's interceptor and radar expertise also positions it for the Golden Dome missile-defense initiative.

    Reflects investor sentiment shifting toward established defense names like RTX.

▲4

NATO Summit Drives $57B in Deals, Boosting RTX Missile Demand

  • NATO Summit Spurs $57B in New Defense Procurement At the Ankara summit, NATO allies announced over $57 billion in new defense deals, including RTX doubling Stinger missile production with European partners. This directly boosts RTX's order book and revenue outlook, pushing the stock up.

    This is the central event of the period, directly linking NATO spending to RTX's products and production expansion.

  • Germany to Buy RTX Tomahawk Missiles and Typhon Launchers Germany agreed to purchase U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and ground-based Typhon launchers from RTX, a significant new order. This adds to RTX's backlog and revenue, supporting the stock price.

    A concrete new contract for RTX, showing direct benefit from European rearmament.

  • Raytheon UK-Led Consortium Wins £2B UK Army Training Contract Omnia Training, led by Raytheon UK, won a £2 billion 15-year contract to deliver the British Army's training system. This provides long-term revenue visibility and strengthens RTX's international services business.

    A new, sizable contract award that diversifies RTX's revenue beyond missiles.

  • U.S. Defense Spending Surge and $400M AMRAAM Contract The U.S. plans $1 trillion defense spending in 2026 and a $1.5 trillion request for 2027. RTX also won a ~$400 million AMRAAM contract, adding to its $271 billion backlog and supporting future growth.

    Highlights the broader budget tailwind and a specific new contract that reinforce RTX's growth trajectory.

Q2 2026
▲3▼1

RTX Wins $1.5B Missile Deals, Sells Space Unit, Faces China Supply Risk

  • Raytheon wins $1.5B in missile contracts Raytheon won a $398.7M AMRAAM contract and a $1.1B AIM-9X missile contract, both with foreign military sales funding. These awards add to RTX's record $271B backlog and support revenue growth, pushing the stock up.

    New contract wins directly boost future revenue and investor confidence.

  • Record $271B backlog and strong defense demand RTX's total backlog hit a record $271B, with defense up 18.5% to $109B. A military expert warned munitions deliveries are years behind, and the FY2027 budget proposes $114B for missiles, signaling sustained demand that supports the stock.

    Backlog and budget trends show long-term demand visibility, a key price driver.

  • RTX sells Blue Canyon, faces China export curbs RTX is selling its Blue Canyon small-satellite unit for $620M, losing a growth asset. Separately, new Chinese export controls on rare earths and defense materials create supply chain and cost risks, weighing on the stock.

    Asset sale and supply chain risks are new negative factors affecting RTX's outlook.

  • GM talks and undervaluation signal upside GM held early talks with RTX to boost weapons production, potentially easing supply bottlenecks. Also, one analysis says RTX is 13.2% undervalued based on $90.4B revenue and $7.3B net income, though another model sees it slightly overvalued.

    New production partnership and valuation debate influence investor sentiment.

June 2026
▲3▼1

RTX Wins $1.5B Missile Deals, Sells Space Unit, Faces China Supply Risk

  • Raytheon wins $1.5B in missile contracts Raytheon won a $398.7M AMRAAM contract and a $1.1B AIM-9X missile contract, both with foreign military sales funding. These awards add to RTX's record $271B backlog and support revenue growth, pushing the stock up.

    New contract wins directly boost future revenue and investor confidence.

  • Record $271B backlog and strong defense demand RTX's total backlog hit a record $271B, with defense up 18.5% to $109B. A military expert warned munitions deliveries are years behind, and the FY2027 budget proposes $114B for missiles, signaling sustained demand that supports the stock.

    Backlog and budget trends show long-term demand visibility, a key price driver.

  • RTX sells Blue Canyon, faces China export curbs RTX is selling its Blue Canyon small-satellite unit for $620M, losing a growth asset. Separately, new Chinese export controls on rare earths and defense materials create supply chain and cost risks, weighing on the stock.

    Asset sale and supply chain risks are new negative factors affecting RTX's outlook.

  • GM talks and undervaluation signal upside GM held early talks with RTX to boost weapons production, potentially easing supply bottlenecks. Also, one analysis says RTX is 13.2% undervalued based on $90.4B revenue and $7.3B net income, though another model sees it slightly overvalued.

    New production partnership and valuation debate influence investor sentiment.

▲3▼1

RTX Wins $1.5B Missile Deals, Sells Space Unit, Faces China Supply Risk

  • Raytheon wins $1.5B in missile contracts Raytheon won a $398.7M AMRAAM contract and a $1.1B AIM-9X missile contract, both with foreign military sales funding. These awards add to RTX's record $271B backlog and support revenue growth, pushing the stock up.

    New contract wins directly boost future revenue and investor confidence.

  • Record $271B backlog and strong defense demand RTX's total backlog hit a record $271B, with defense up 18.5% to $109B. A military expert warned munitions deliveries are years behind, and the FY2027 budget proposes $114B for missiles, signaling sustained demand that supports the stock.

    Backlog and budget trends show long-term demand visibility, a key price driver.

  • RTX sells Blue Canyon, faces China export curbs RTX is selling its Blue Canyon small-satellite unit for $620M, losing a growth asset. Separately, new Chinese export controls on rare earths and defense materials create supply chain and cost risks, weighing on the stock.

    Asset sale and supply chain risks are new negative factors affecting RTX's outlook.

  • GM talks and undervaluation signal upside GM held early talks with RTX to boost weapons production, potentially easing supply bottlenecks. Also, one analysis says RTX is 13.2% undervalued based on $90.4B revenue and $7.3B net income, though another model sees it slightly overvalued.

    New production partnership and valuation debate influence investor sentiment.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

  • Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.

    It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.

  • Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.

    These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.

  • Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.

    These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.

  • Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.

    Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.

    This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.

    This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.

  • CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.

    This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.

  • Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.

    This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

Latest
▼3▲1

Flood crisis hits Thai Airways operations, CEO suspended; recovery and cheap valuation in focus

  • Flooding forces flight cancellations and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left ground staff unable to reach work, so Thai Airways cancelled dozens of flights, stranded over 5,600 bags, and cut Bangkok capacity by about 30%. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on the shares.

    This is the core new event that explains the sharp drop in THAI shares this period.

  • Cargo operations suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at Suvarnabhumi from October 1–6 after flooding caused a staffing shortage, leaving about 12,000 tons of goods stuck. The government pressured the airline to fix it fast, adding to reputational and financial damage.

    Cargo is a meaningful profit source and the suspension is a new operational blow not previously reported.

  • CEO suspended, board launches investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty and possible governance issues are a short-term overhang, though brokers see limited profit impact if operations normalise quickly.

    This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and affects investor confidence.

  • Recovery underway, brokers see cheap valuation and Q4 rebound Thai Airways restored most flights by October 1–3 and cleared the baggage backlog. Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a 7.56 baht consensus target, a cheap 2027 P/E of 6.9x, lower fuel costs, and a high-season earnings recovery.

    This provides the counterweight: the operational crisis is easing and analysts still see value and a Q4 rebound.

▲3

Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.

    This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.

  • Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.

    This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.

  • Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.

    This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.

  • CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.

    This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 2026
▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

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