Molina beats Q2, raises guidance, but membership and ACA cuts weigh
Revenue decline and membership loss Molina's Q1 and Q2 revenues fell year over year, with Q2 down 4.8% to $10.9 billion and total membership dropping 14.3% to about 4.9 million. Fewer customers mean less premium income, which pressures future profits and the stock price.
Shows the core demand problem that is dragging on MOH's price.
Q2 earnings beat and raised 2026 guidance Molina beat Q2 earnings estimates by 10.2% and raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $5.25. This signals cost control is working and gives investors more confidence in future profits, which supports the stock.
This is the main positive force behind MOH's price right now.
ACA business pullback starting 2027 Molina plans to sharply cut its Affordable Care Act plans from 2027, limiting them to six states and lowering premiums. This reduces future revenue and shows management sees ACA as unprofitable, which weighs on long-term growth expectations.
A major strategic shift that changes Molina's future revenue mix and risk.
High medical care ratio and tariff risk Molina's medical care ratio rose to 92.2%, meaning it spent more of each premium dollar on patient care, and shares fell about 11% despite the earnings beat. New tariffs on generic drug imports could raise future costs, adding pressure.
Explains why the stock dropped even after good earnings and highlights a new cost risk.