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Endeavour Silver vs Silver Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK)

Silver Futures (SILVER.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Silver swings on Fed, dollar, and Middle East tensions

  • Safe-haven demand from US-Iran hostilities Fighting between the US and Iran made investors seek safe assets like silver, pushing prices up. This geopolitical tension provided a key support during the quarter.

    It was a major positive force driving silver prices in 2026 Q3.

  • Weak dollar and soft inflation A weaker US dollar made silver cheaper for foreign buyers, and soft inflation reduced pressure for rate hikes. These factors helped silver rally to $64–68.

    It explains a key positive driver of silver prices during the period.

  • Strong industrial demand and supply deficit Silver demand from industry stayed strong, and the market had a sixth straight supply deficit. Record miner cash and a bullish J.P. Morgan forecast also supported prices.

    It highlights fundamental support that helped silver gain despite headwinds.

  • Hawkish Fed and strong dollar cap gains The Fed signaled higher rates for longer, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar up. This repeatedly capped silver below $65 and pushed it to $55–58 lows.

    It was the main negative force constraining silver prices in 2026 Q3.

August 2026
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Silver rallies on weak jobs, soft dollar, but Fed caps gains

  • Weak US jobs and soft dollar lift silver Weak US jobs data and a softer dollar made silver cheaper for foreign buyers, helping prices rally to $64–68. Falling oil and fading Fed rate-hike odds added support.

    This explains the main bullish driver of silver's price increase during the period.

  • Industrial demand and supply deficit support prices Strong industrial demand from clean energy and defense, plus a persistent supply deficit, kept silver supported. Morgan Stanley's bullish gold call also lifted sentiment.

    This highlights fundamental demand and supply factors that underpinned silver's price.

  • Fed higher-for-longer and strong dollar cap silver By late September, the Fed's higher-for-longer stance, rising Treasury yields, and a strong dollar kept silver below $65. Inflation data caused whipsaws, limiting gains.

    This shows the key bearish counterweight that tempered silver's rally.

  • Iran's Strait of Hormuz threat briefly pulls silver back Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz briefly pulled silver back 2.7%, as geopolitical tensions raised uncertainty and triggered a short-term selloff.

    This geopolitical event caused a temporary negative impact on silver prices.

Latest
▼2▲1

Silver stuck below $65 as Fed rate fears outweigh brief rallies

  • Fed's higher-for-longer stance caps silver Fed officials warned strong demand and higher oil prices are fueling inflation, reinforcing the view that interest rates will stay high. High rates make silver less appealing than bonds, pushing its price down below $65.

    This is the latest and most important force keeping silver under pressure.

  • Inflation data whipsaws silver Softer US inflation in mid-July briefly cut rate-hike expectations and lifted silver nearly 2%, but the relief faded fast. The metal stayed biased lower, showing that rate fears, not inflation data, are steering the price.

    Shows the tug-of-war between inflation data and rate expectations that drives silver's swings.

  • Strong demand overrides rate headwinds In late July silver rose for a fourth straight session to near $60 even as rate-hike expectations climbed. Buyers kept stepping in despite the usual drag from higher rates, signaling real underlying demand for the metal.

    Highlights genuine demand strength that can push silver up against negative forces.

  • Strong dollar and rising yields weigh on silver At the end of June, silver tumbled below $60, down over 22% for the month, as rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar made the non-yielding metal less attractive. Easing geopolitical tensions removed another source of support.

    Explains the steep early-period decline that set silver's weak starting point.

September 2026
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Silver swings on Fed hike odds and oil-driven yield moves

  • Fed rate-hike odds jump, pressuring silver Markets now price a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and a 53% chance of another in October, after Chair Warsh said inflation is still too high. Higher rates make silver less attractive than bonds, pulling its price down.

    This is the dominant new force this period, explaining why silver fell from near $69 to the mid-$60s.

  • Oil rally pauses, yields slip, silver rebounds Silver rose 1.8% to near $64.40 as the oil rally paused after Saudi Arabia explored alternative shipping routes, then climbed to near $66 as falling oil pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.93%. Lower yields support silver.

    This is the main new positive driver, showing the oil-yield channel that lifted silver late in the period.

  • Record miner cash and new tokenized demand Top silver miners held a record $4.2 billion in net cash, more than double the 2011 peak, as silver averaged $70-$85 an ounce. Dubai also tokenized a 1,971kg silver bar, letting small investors buy fractions. Both support demand.

    These new structural demand signals show underlying support for silver even as prices swing.

▲2▼1

Silver swings on Fed hike odds and oil-driven yield moves

  • Fed rate-hike odds jump, pressuring silver Markets now price a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and a 53% chance of another in October, after Chair Warsh said inflation is still too high. Higher rates make silver less attractive than bonds, pulling its price down.

    This is the dominant new force this period, explaining why silver fell from near $69 to the mid-$60s.

  • Oil rally pauses, yields slip, silver rebounds Silver rose 1.8% to near $64.40 as the oil rally paused after Saudi Arabia explored alternative shipping routes, then climbed to near $66 as falling oil pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.93%. Lower yields support silver.

    This is the main new positive driver, showing the oil-yield channel that lifted silver late in the period.

  • Record miner cash and new tokenized demand Top silver miners held a record $4.2 billion in net cash, more than double the 2011 peak, as silver averaged $70-$85 an ounce. Dubai also tokenized a 1,971kg silver bar, letting small investors buy fractions. Both support demand.

    These new structural demand signals show underlying support for silver even as prices swing.

▲3▼1

Silver hits two-month high as Fed fears fade and Treasury buybacks boost demand

  • Weak jobs data and fading Fed rate-hike fears lift silver US July payrolls fell 23,000, far below expectations, and retail sales missed forecasts. Traders now see only a 32.6% chance of a September rate hike, down from over 50%. Lower rate-hike odds make silver more attractive than bonds, pushing prices up.

    This is the main monetary force driving silver higher this period.

  • Treasury doubles bond buybacks, silver surges 6% The US Treasury doubled the size of long-bond buybacks, sending yields lower. Silver jumped 5-6.4% to near $68, outpacing gold because industrial demand from solar and green tech makes it more sensitive when yields fall. This is a narrative response to fiscal concern, not monetary easing.

    This is the biggest single-day price driver this period.

  • Morgan Stanley sees gold above $5,000, lifting silver too Morgan Stanley raised its gold outlook above $5,000 by 2027, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady. Gold futures closed above $4,500, and silver climbed 3.5% to $68.03. Improving macro conditions and central-bank demand are pulling money into precious metals, supporting silver.

    This shows analyst optimism and broader demand for precious metals, a key support for silver.

  • Strait of Hormuz closure threat causes brief silver pullback Silver fell 2.70% to $64.77 after Iran threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The closure pushes oil prices higher, which could revive inflation and rate-hike fears, weighing on silver. This is a real counterweight to the rally.

    This is the main negative force this period, showing a risk to silver's upward trend.

▲4

Silver Jumps to $64 as Weak US Jobs and Soft Dollar Fuel Rally

  • Weak US jobs data and dollar slump lift silver US July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, the first drop in five months, and wage growth slowed. The dollar hit a seven-week low, and the chance of a September Fed rate hike fell to 44% from 58%. Silver futures jumped to $64.36 an ounce as a weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign buyers and lower rate-hike odds make it more attractive than bonds.

    This is the biggest new driver this period, directly pushing silver sharply higher.

  • Falling oil and softer inflation ease Fed pressure Crude oil plunged over 5% to a three-week low after Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran, lowering inflation expectations. That reduced fears of a Fed rate hike, and silver surged 4.13% in one day. Lower oil-driven inflation makes it less likely the Fed will raise rates, which supports silver prices.

    This explains the mid-period surge in silver tied to oil and inflation expectations.

  • Industrial demand and supply deficit drive revaluation Silver is being revalued as a critical mineral for clean energy, electronics, and defense, with industrial demand outpacing mine supply since 2022. Major silver miners like First Majestic, Hecla, and Pan American reported strong revenue and earnings growth. This persistent supply shortfall supports higher silver prices over the long term.

    This is a fundamental force behind silver's price that goes beyond daily swings.

  • Technical breakout signals further upside Veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt said silver has broken out of a cup-and-handle pattern and could move much higher, though timing is uncertain. This technical signal, combined with the price surge to $64, suggests momentum is building and more investors may buy in, pushing prices up further.

    This points to a potential continued rally, adding to the positive picture.

July 2026
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Silver swings on Fed, dollar, and Middle East tensions

  • Safe-haven demand from US-Iran hostilities Fighting between the US and Iran made investors seek safe assets like silver, pushing prices up at times. This was a new source of support after earlier Middle East peace had reduced safe-haven demand.

    It explains a key positive force that lifted silver during the period.

  • Weaker dollar and soft inflation A weaker US dollar made silver cheaper for foreign buyers, and soft inflation data briefly calmed fears of rate hikes. Both helped silver rally during the month.

    It shows positive drivers that supported silver prices.

  • Bottoming signs and bullish forecasts Analysts said silver may have bottomed after a 50% drop, pointing to strong industrial demand, a sixth straight supply deficit, and J.P. Morgan's $80 forecast. Miner profit surges and First Majestic's expansion also signaled confidence.

    It highlights reasons investors saw silver as undervalued and ready to rise.

  • Hawkish Fed and strong dollar pressure Hawkish Fed minutes and rate-hike fears strengthened the dollar, making silver less attractive and pushing it to multi-week lows around $55–58. Rising Middle East conflict also boosted oil and inflation worries, keeping the Fed tight.

    It captures the main negative forces that repeatedly pressured silver.

▲2▼1

Silver swings on Middle East safe-haven demand and Fed rate-hike fears

  • US-Iran hostilities boost safe-haven demand Escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping drove investors to safe-haven assets, lifting silver 4.3% to $58.85. Safe-haven buying supports silver's price when geopolitical risks rise.

    This is the main new positive force this period, explaining silver's rally.

  • Fed rate-hike fears and strong dollar pressure silver Rising odds of a Fed rate hike (35.8% for July) and a stronger dollar made silver less appealing, causing a 3.9% plunge on July 23. Higher rates and a strong dollar typically push silver down.

    This is the main new negative force this period, explaining silver's sharp drop.

  • Weaker dollar lifts silver to two-week highs The dollar eased on euro and yen strength, helping silver rally to two-week highs on July 22. A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting demand and prices.

    This new dollar weakness contributed to silver's mid-week gains.

  • Silver holds gains despite rising rate-hike odds Silver held above $57.50 on July 24 even as Fed rate-hike odds rose, showing resilience. This suggests other factors like safe-haven demand may be offsetting monetary pressure.

    This new development shows silver's recent resilience, a counterweight to bearish forces.

▲2▼1

Silver Slips as Fed Rate Fears and Strong Dollar Dominate

  • Fed rate-hike fears and strong dollar pressure silver Renewed US-Iran fighting revived inflation worries, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike. Stronger US data and hawkish Fed comments pushed the dollar up, making silver costlier for foreign buyers and less appealing than bonds. Silver fell to a three-week low around $55.75.

    This is the main force driving silver down this period, combining geopolitics, inflation, and Fed policy.

  • Soft US inflation briefly lifts silver US June consumer prices rose less than expected, easing fears of a Fed rate hike. The dollar fell and silver jumped 1.95% as lower inflation reduces pressure for higher interest rates, making silver more attractive. However, hawkish Fed remarks capped the gains.

    This shows a real counterweight: softer inflation can support silver, even if only briefly.

  • Analysts see silver near bottom after 50% drop Silver has fallen about 50% from its January high and is trading near an 11-month low around $60. Some analysts say the hawkish Fed fears are already priced in, and industrial demand plus a sixth straight year of supply deficit could support a rebound. J.P. Morgan forecasts $80 by end-2026.

    This gives the big-picture view that the sell-off may be overdone, offering a potential upside driver.

  • First Majestic expands silver production First Majestic raised its 2026 production guidance and received permits to expand its Santa Elena mine, which will add future silver supply. More supply tends to push prices down, but the expansion also signals confidence in long-term demand and could support sentiment in the near term.

    This is a new supply-side development that could affect silver's balance, though the impact is gradual and mixed.

▲2▼2

Silver swings on Fed, dollar, and Middle East tensions

  • Hawkish Fed minutes and inflation fears pressure silver Minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed officials worried about rising inflation, keeping the door open for rate hikes. Higher rates make silver less appealing than bonds, and the dollar stays strong, pushing silver down to around $58 an ounce.

    This is the main new force weighing on silver this period.

  • Middle East conflict flares, boosting dollar and oil The US struck Iran after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran hit US bases. Oil jumped over 5%, reviving inflation worries that could keep the Fed tight. Investors rushed to the dollar, and silver slumped 4.5% to a near year-to-date low.

    Geopolitical escalation is a new driver that hurt silver via inflation and dollar demand.

  • Dollar weakness and safe-haven demand lift silver Later in the week, the dollar fell on stock strength and weak home sales, while Middle East tensions brought safe-haven buying. Silver jumped 3.2% and then 3.8% in two days, recovering toward $60 an ounce.

    This shows the counterweight that pushed silver up despite the bearish backdrop.

  • Miner profit surge confirms high silver prices Jinhui Mining expects first-half profit to rise 58–66% from a year earlier, citing higher silver and zinc prices. This confirms that silver prices remain historically high, supporting the market's long-term outlook even as prices swing.

    It provides real-world evidence that silver prices are still elevated, a supportive factor.

Q2 2026
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Silver plunges on hawkish Fed, strong dollar, new supply

  • Hawkish Fed under new Chair Warsh New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled higher interest rates for longer, which strengthened the dollar and made silver less attractive because it pays no interest. This was a major force pushing silver down.

    It explains a key reason for silver's sharp decline.

  • 13-month-high dollar The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in 13 months, making silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This reduced global demand and pressured silver prices lower.

    It highlights a major negative driver of silver's price drop.

  • Fading safe-haven demand Progress toward Middle East peace reduced investors' need for safe-haven assets like silver. As geopolitical tensions eased, silver lost a key source of support, contributing to its steep fall.

    It shows how reduced geopolitical risk hurt silver demand.

  • New supply from Copper Mountain Hudbay's Copper Mountain mine began producing silver, adding fresh supply to the market. This extra metal weighed on prices already pressured by weak demand and a strong dollar.

    It identifies a new supply source that contributed to the price decline.

June 2026
▼4

Silver plunges on hawkish Fed, strong dollar, new supply

  • Hawkish Fed under new Chair Warsh New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled higher interest rates for longer, which strengthened the dollar and made silver less attractive because it pays no interest. This was a major force pushing silver down.

    It explains a key reason for silver's sharp decline.

  • 13-month-high dollar The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in 13 months, making silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This reduced global demand and pressured silver prices lower.

    It highlights a major negative driver of silver's price drop.

  • Fading safe-haven demand Progress toward Middle East peace reduced investors' need for safe-haven assets like silver. As geopolitical tensions eased, silver lost a key source of support, contributing to its steep fall.

    It shows how reduced geopolitical risk hurt silver demand.

  • New supply from Copper Mountain Hudbay's Copper Mountain mine began producing silver, adding fresh supply to the market. This extra metal weighed on prices already pressured by weak demand and a strong dollar.

    It identifies a new supply source that contributed to the price decline.

▼2▲1

Silver swings on Fed rate-hike bets and weak jobs data

  • Fed rate-hike fears keep silver under pressure New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first public appearance kept markets focused on possible rate hikes, with futures pricing an October increase as near-certain. Higher rates make silver less attractive versus bonds and have driven a roughly 20% June plunge, silver's worst month since 2011.

    This is the dominant force behind silver's big picture decline and explains why prices remain far below January highs.

  • Weak US jobs report cools rate-hike bets, lifting silver June nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000, far below forecasts, pushing the dollar to a two-week low and cutting the perceived chance of a September hike. Silver jumped about 2.6% to near $61 an ounce as a softer dollar makes the metal cheaper for foreign buyers.

    This is the main new positive catalyst this period, showing how quickly silver reacts when rate-hike expectations ease.

  • Hormuz tensions push oil up, stoking inflation worries Renewed US-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices higher, reviving inflation fears that could keep the Fed tight. That weighed on silver, which fell below $59 on June 29, as higher crude prices and reduced safe-haven demand pressured the metal.

    Geopolitical tensions are a recurring driver, and this episode shows how they can hurt silver via inflation and Fed policy expectations.

  • Supply cuts at Silvercorp and long-term deficit support Silvercorp slowed its China mines for safety work, cutting output 40-50% in the third quarter, a small but real supply reduction. This adds to the record 215-million-ounce deficit and strong solar and electronics demand, a long-term support that contrasts with the recent price slump.

    It highlights the ongoing supply tightness that acts as a counterweight to the bearish rate-driven selloff.

▲2▼2

Silver Plunges on Hawkish Fed, Strong Dollar; Long-Term Deficit Supports

  • Hawkish Fed and Strong Dollar Crush Silver The Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh signaled possible rate hikes, pushing the dollar to a 13-month high. A stronger dollar makes silver costlier for foreign buyers, and higher rates make non-yielding silver less appealing. This drove silver below $60 an ounce, a six-month low and over 50% down from its January peak.

    This is the dominant force behind the recent price crash, directly linking Fed policy and dollar strength to silver's decline.

  • Safe-Haven Demand Fades on US-Iran Peace Progress Progress in US-Iran peace talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets like silver. As geopolitical tensions eased, investors moved away from precious metals, adding to the selling pressure. This shift in sentiment contributed to silver's sharp drop.

    It explains a key sentiment driver that reduced silver's appeal as a safe haven, amplifying the price decline.

  • Record Supply Deficit and Strong Industrial Demand Silver faces a record supply deficit of 215 million ounces in 2026, with seven consecutive years of shortages. Industrial demand from solar and electronics is rising, and supply is constrained because silver is mostly a byproduct of other mining. This tight market supports higher prices long-term.

    It highlights the fundamental supply-demand imbalance that provides a counterweight to the recent price drop and supports a long-term bullish case.

  • Analysts See Pullback as Buying Opportunity Some analysts view the recent correction as a buying opportunity, citing long-term drivers like central bank buying, fiscal concerns, and de-dollarization. They suggest silver as a higher-beta trade via ETFs, implying potential for a rebound.

    It shows that despite the selloff, some experts see value, which could influence investor sentiment and support prices.

▼3

Silver Falls on Hawkish Fed, Strong Dollar, and New Supply

  • Hawkish Fed and Strong Dollar The Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates ahead, pushing the dollar to a 13-month high. A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers, and higher rates make it less attractive compared to bonds. This drove silver down over 6% on Thursday.

    This is the main reason silver dropped sharply this period.

  • New Silver Supply from Hudbay Mine Hudbay Minerals started expanding its Copper Mountain mine, which will add 5.5 million ounces of silver over the mine's life. More supply tends to push prices down, though the effect is gradual and small compared to global demand.

    It adds new physical supply, a fundamental factor for silver's price.

  • Fading Safe-Haven Demand Optimism over a Middle East peace deal reduced demand for safe-haven assets like silver. However, when that optimism faded on Friday, oil supply worries brought back inflation fears, keeping silver under pressure. Geopolitical shifts are affecting silver's appeal.

    It shows how geopolitical events are influencing silver demand.

  • Long-Term Demand vs. Short-Term Weakness Silver fell below $75 an ounce, down over a third from its peak, but analysts say long-term demand from AI, solar, and electronics remains strong. Supply is constrained because silver is mostly a byproduct of other mining. This suggests the current drop may be temporary.

    It provides a counterweight, showing why silver's price could recover.

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