← Effective Federal Funds Rate overview
Effective Federal Funds RateEFFR.MM

Why is Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR.MM) moving?

Q3 2026
▲1▼1

Fed hikes once, but weak data and political pressure cap further increases

  • First Fed rate hike since 2023 The Fed raised its benchmark rate to 3.75–4.00%, the first increase since 2023, citing strong jobs, sticky inflation, and oil above $100. It signaled one more hike could come.

    This was the main event that directly raised the effective federal funds rate during the quarter.

  • Weak data and political pressure flip October odds to hold After the hike, below-forecast inflation, a weak September jobs report, a Fed official's dissent, and Trump's pressure for cuts flipped October hike odds from 70% to about 84% for a hold, capping expected rates.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented further rate increases and pushed expectations down.

  • Rate-hike odds swung on mixed data and Fed signals Early in the quarter, weak July payrolls and soft retail sales cut September hike odds to ~29%, but hawkish Fed minutes and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech revived them to 55–60%, keeping the path unclear.

    This explains the back-and-forth in expectations that set the stage for the eventual hike.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Fed hikes to 3.75–4.00% as inflation risks persist

  • Fed delivers first hike since 2023 The Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, driven by strong jobs, sticky inflation, and oil above $100. Officials signaled one more hike in 2026.

    This is the main event that directly moved EFFR.

  • Hawkish data and rhetoric lift hike odds Blowout August jobs, strong PMI, and hawkish Jackson Hole remarks pushed September hike odds to ~87%. Officials largely backed further tightening, lifting October hike bets to ~70%.

    Explains the forces that drove expectations higher into the hike.

  • Late data and political pressure cap hikes Below-forecast PCE and a weak September jobs report flipped October odds toward a hold (~84%). Waller dissented and Trump pressured for cuts, pulling expected rates down.

    Shows the counterweight that limited further tightening.

  • Oil above $100 keeps inflation risk alive Oil above $100 and tough official rhetoric kept inflation risk—and a floor under EFFR—alive, even as late data softened the outlook.

    Highlights a persistent force supporting higher rates.

Latest
▲2▼2

Hot inflation data and weak jobs report flip October rate-hike odds from 70% to hold

  • Below-forecast PCE inflation sharply cuts October hike odds August PCE inflation came in at 3.4% year-on-year, below the 3.7% expected, with core at 3.0% versus 3.3% forecast. That eased inflation worries and raised the chance the Fed holds rates steady in October to about 63% from 49% a day earlier, lowering expected EFFR.MM.

    This is the first major data surprise that reversed the market's rate-hike expectations, directly pushing EFFR.MM lower.

  • Weak September jobs report makes an October hold very likely September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, far below the 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Investors now price an 83.9% chance the Fed holds rates at 3.75–4.00% in October, up from 35.8% a week ago, pulling expected EFFR.MM down.

    This is the latest and most decisive data point that slashed near-term rate-hike expectations, a direct negative for EFFR.MM.

  • Oil above $100 and Middle East conflict keep inflation risk alive Brent crude topped $108 after the US rejected Iran's peace proposal, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Higher oil prices feed inflation, which could force the Fed to hike later, keeping upward pressure on EFFR.MM even as near-term odds fell.

    This is the main counterweight: it explains why EFFR.MM doesn't just collapse despite weak jobs and soft PCE.

  • Fed officials still talk tough on inflation, but data now rules Governors Cook and Barr and regional presidents Williams and Logan said inflation is still too high and more hikes may be needed, with Williams seeing one more late this year. That keeps a floor under EFFR.MM, though markets now bet the Fed will wait.

    It shows the policy bias remains hawkish, a positive force for EFFR.MM that balances the negative data surprises.

▲4

Fed Officials and Hot Data Drive October Rate-Hike Bets Sharply Higher

  • Fed officials line up behind more hikes Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, Governor Barr, Philadelphia Fed's Paulson and New York Fed's Williams all said this week that rates likely need to go higher to bring inflation down to 2%. When voting and influential officials say this, investors expect the actual rate to rise, pushing EFFR.MM up.

    Multiple Fed officials explicitly signaling more hikes directly raises the expected path of the fed funds rate.

  • Strong September PMI data lifts October hike odds to ~70% The September flash PMI jumped to 58.4, a five-year high, showing the economy is running hot. That makes the Fed more likely to hike again, and markets now price about a 70% chance of a quarter-point increase at the October 27-28 meeting, up from 55% a week earlier. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    The PMI surprise is the key new data point that shifted market odds for an October hike sharply higher.

  • Investors now bet on two more hikes in 2026 After the strong data and official comments, traders raised bets to a 66% chance of an October hike and a 50% chance of another in December, up from 55% and 42% a week ago. If both happen, the fed funds rate would rise to 4.25-4.50%, pulling EFFR.MM higher.

    This shows the market's expected path for the fed funds rate has shifted up, which is what EFFR.MM tracks.

  • AI investment boom adds to inflation pressure Goolsbee and Paulson both warned that massive AI data-center spending is boosting demand beyond what the economy can supply, keeping inflation sticky. If the Fed sees AI as an inflation driver, it may need higher rates to cool other spending, which supports a higher EFFR.MM.

    A new structural force (AI-driven demand) that could keep upward pressure on rates even if other inflation sources fade.

▲3

Fed Hikes Rates to 3.75–4.00%, Signals One More in 2026

  • Fed delivers first rate hike in three years, raises target to 3.75–4.00% The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. This directly lifts the effective federal funds rate, which tracks the Fed's target range.

    This is the actual policy decision that sets the EFFR, making it the most important driver of the period.

  • Fed signals one more hike in 2026, higher-for-longer path The Fed's dot plot shows 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year, with the median year-end 2026 rate at 4.1%. This tells investors rates will stay higher for longer, keeping upward pressure on EFFR.MM.

    Forward guidance about future hikes shapes expectations for where EFFR will go next, beyond the current move.

  • Oil above $100 and sticky inflation force Fed's hand Crude oil surged past $100–$108 on Middle East supply fears, and core inflation remains near 3.4%. These price pressures make the Fed more likely to keep raising rates, pushing EFFR.MM higher.

    Inflation and oil are the root causes forcing the Fed to hike, explaining why EFFR is moving up.

  • Trump pressures Fed to cut to 1%, but Warsh defends independence After the hike, Trump urged the Fed to cut rates to 1% or lower, calling the hike political. But Warsh has defended Fed independence, so this is a real but uncertain counterweight that could lower EFFR.MM if it sways policy.

    This is the main opposing force that could push EFFR down, providing a fair counterweight to the hike.

▲3▼1

Strong Jobs and Sticky Inflation Push September Rate-Hike Odds to ~87%

  • Blowout August Jobs Report Lifts Rate-Hike Odds The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the 53,000 expected, and unemployment held at 4.1%. That strength tells investors the economy can handle higher rates, so the odds of a September Fed hike jumped from about 49% to 58% and kept climbing. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the first major new data point this period that reset rate expectations upward.

  • Firmer PPI and Hot Core CPI Push Hike Odds to ~87% Producer prices rose 5.4% year over year, above the 5.3% expected, and August core consumer prices rose 0.3% for the month, hotter than the 0.2% forecast. With inflation still sticky, traders now price an 85.8% chance of a quarter-point hike on September 16, up from 72.4% a day earlier. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the latest and most decisive new inflation data that drove hike odds sharply higher.

  • Trump Pressures Fed to Cut, Threatens Trade Measures President Trump threatened to suspend trade with surplus countries if the Fed doesn't cut rates before the September 15-16 meeting, and his advisers called a hike 'reckless.' This political pressure could sway the Fed to hold or cut, which would lower EFFR.MM. But Chair Warsh has defended Fed independence, so the effect is a real but uncertain counterweight.

    This is a genuine counterforce that could pull rates down, and readers need to see it alongside the hike odds.

  • War and AI Boom May Blunt Rate Hikes, But Fed Still Expected to Move Analysts warn that Fed rate hikes may have limited effect on inflation driven by the Iran war, tariffs, and massive AI investment, which are less sensitive to interest rates. Even so, the Fed has signaled readiness to hike and futures price roughly 70% odds, so the expected funds rate remains elevated. This keeps upward pressure on EFFR.MM.

    It explains why the Fed is still expected to hike despite doubts about its effectiveness, supporting the upward move in EFFR.MM.

▲3▼1

Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole pushes September rate-hike odds to ~60%, but Waller's dissent and weak inflation data keep it a coin toss

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifts September rate-hike odds to ~60% Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote was hawkish: he said the Fed will 'have work to do' if inflation isn't clearly heading to 2%, and rejected forward guidance. Markets now price a 55-66% chance of a September hike, up from ~35% before the speech. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly raises the expected federal funds rate.

  • Barclays and other analysts now forecast two hikes (Sept and Dec) Barclays reversed its call and now expects the Fed to raise rates in both September and December, each by 25 basis points. Other banks also see more tightening ahead. This adds to expectations of a higher policy rate, pushing EFFR.MM up.

    New analyst forecasts reinforce the upward pressure on expected rates.

  • Oil surge on US-Iran conflict adds to inflation and hike pressure Renewed US-Iran fighting pushed Brent above $90 and WTI above $85, raising inflation concerns. Higher oil prices make the Fed more likely to hike to fight inflation, which lifts the expected federal funds rate.

    A new geopolitical supply shock that feeds into inflation and rate-hike expectations.

  • Waller signals he may support holding rates steady Fed Governor Waller said he could support holding rates steady at the September meeting, urging markets to 'give disinflation a chance.' His comments cut hike odds from 63% to about 50%, lowering the expected federal funds rate. This is a real counterweight to Warsh's hawkish stance.

    A key dissenting voice that reduces the probability of a hike, balancing the positive drivers.

August 2026
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Rate-hike odds swung on weak data and hawkish Fed signals

  • September rate-hike odds whipsawed Early August, traders saw higher odds of a Fed rate hike due to tough talk and high inflation. Then weak jobs and sales data cut those odds to about 29%, before Fed minutes and Warsh's speech pushed them back to 55-60%.

    This directly explains the sharp swings in rate expectations that drove EFFR pricing during the period.

  • Weak economic data lowered hike odds July payrolls fell by 23,000, retail sales dropped, and consumer confidence was soft. These signs of a slowing economy made traders bet the Fed would not raise rates, pulling expected rates down.

    It shows the key data that pushed rate-hike odds lower, a major force on EFFR expectations.

  • Hawkish Fed signals revived hike bets Fed minutes showed growing support for rate hikes, and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech reinforced that view. This lifted September hike odds back to around 55-60%, supporting higher expected rates.

    It captures the Fed communication that reversed the earlier decline in rate-hike odds.

  • Other forces kept rate path uncertain Treasury bond buybacks, doubts about Fed credibility, less forward guidance, a shrinking Fed balance sheet, and a global savings squeeze all pulled in different directions, leaving the net rate path unclear.

    It highlights the counterweights that prevented a clear direction for EFFR, balancing the narrative.

▲2

Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Makes a September Rate Hike the Base Case

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech jolts rate-hike odds to ~60% Fed Chair Warsh said the Fed will 'have work to do' if inflation isn't clearly heading to 2%, and that financial conditions aren't restrictive. Traders now price about a 55-60% chance of a September hike, up from roughly 35% before the speech. Higher expected rates lift EFFR.MM.

    This is the period's decisive new event: it directly reset market odds for the fed funds rate.

  • Hammack and other officials push for immediate tightening Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the Fed is far from its inflation target and should tighten now; she was one of three July dissenters who voted to hike. Officials openly backing hikes reinforce the market's move toward expecting higher rates.

    It shows the hike signal is not just Warsh's personal view but has committee support.

  • Treasury bond buybacks and global savings squeeze pull the other way The Treasury doubled purchases of long-dated bonds to push yields down, which could offset Fed tightening and delay a hike. But a global savings squeeze and heavy AI borrowing are pushing long-term yields up anyway, so the net effect on expected rates is uncertain.

    It is the real counterweight: it could soften the case for hikes even as inflation stays high.

▲2▼1

Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Push for Rate Hikes

  • Fed minutes show many officials now favor rate hikes The July Fed meeting minutes revealed that many officials believe rate hikes will be needed if inflation stays above 2%. Three officials already voted to hike. This makes traders expect higher rates ahead, pushing the expected federal funds rate up.

    This is the most direct and important new signal about the future path of the federal funds rate.

  • Core inflation stuck near 3.3% keeps pressure on Fed Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, remains near 3.3% — well above the Fed's 2% goal. Tariffs and supply-chain issues keep prices high. This persistent inflation forces the Fed to consider raising rates, lifting the expected funds rate.

    Persistent core inflation is the fundamental reason the Fed may hike, directly driving rate expectations.

  • Weak retail sales cut odds of near-term hikes July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months and worse than expected. Consumers are pulling back, which slows the economy. This makes traders bet the Fed will hold off on hiking until at least December, lowering the expected funds rate.

    Weak consumer spending is a key counterweight that reduces the urgency for rate hikes.

  • Treasury buybacks and Fed silence add uncertainty The Treasury is doubling buybacks of long-term bonds to lower yields, but JPMorgan warns it may not work and could raise long-term rates. Meanwhile, the Fed's lack of guidance and possible credit downgrade add volatility. The net effect on the expected funds rate is unclear.

    This shows a real counterweight and uncertainty that could push rate expectations in either direction.

▲2▼2

Rate-Hike Odds Fade as Jobs and Consumer Data Weaken

  • Weak July jobs report cuts September hike odds July payrolls fell 23,000, far below the expected 85,000 gain, and prior months were revised lower. Investors now see a September rate hike as much less likely, with odds falling from 67% to around 40-44%. This lowers the expected federal funds rate.

    This is the main new data point that shifted market expectations for the Fed's next move.

  • Weak retail sales and consumer confidence push hike odds even lower July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months and the biggest in 14 months, badly missing forecasts. Consumer confidence also weakened. By August 14, traders saw only a 28.6% chance of a September hike, down from above 50% a week earlier, as investors bet rates stay at 3.50%-3.75%.

    This is the newest data showing the consumer is slowing, which directly reduces the chance of a rate hike.

  • Fed officials and BofA still point to higher rates Kansas City Fed President Schmid said policy may need to tighten further, and three Fed officials voted to hike in July. Bank of America expects 75 basis points of additional hikes in 2026, bringing the rate to 4.25%-4.50%. This keeps upward pressure on the expected funds rate.

    This is the main counterweight: not everyone agrees the Fed is done, and some still expect hikes.

  • Warsh's communication shift and balance-sheet plans tighten policy Chair Warsh is reducing forward guidance and wants to shrink the Fed's $6.75 trillion balance sheet. Both moves can push long-term rates higher even without raising the official funds rate. This adds to uncertainty and keeps upward pressure on borrowing costs.

    This explains a new way the Fed could tighten policy beyond just changing the funds rate target.

▲2▼1

Fed hike bets surge on inflation, then weak jobs data flips odds to a hold

  • Fed officials signal readiness to hike rates Multiple Fed officials, including Governor Cook and three FOMC dissenters, said they are prepared to raise rates if inflation stays high. Chair Warsh also said he has 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation and is ready to hike in September if data confirm rising prices. This pushes the expected federal funds rate up.

    Directly raises the expected path of the policy rate, which is what EFFR tracks.

  • Inflation stays high on tariffs and Iran war Inflation is running at a three-year high of 4.2%, driven by Trump's tariffs on over 80 countries and the Iran war that closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy and input costs higher. This persistent inflation forces the Fed to consider rate hikes, lifting the expected federal funds rate.

    Explains the underlying inflation pressure that is driving the Fed toward rate hikes.

  • Weak July jobs report slashes rate-hike odds July payrolls fell by 23,000, far below expectations, and prior months were revised lower. Investors now see a September rate hike as less likely, with the probability dropping from 67% to around 40-44%. This lowers the expected federal funds rate.

    Directly reduces the probability of a near-term rate hike, pulling the expected policy rate down.

  • Fed credibility doubts cut both ways Markets question the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, with long-term bond yields rising and critics saying Warsh's tough talk lacks action. Some warn this could force the Fed to hike more later to regain credibility, while others see it as a reason the Fed may hold off. The net effect on the expected funds rate is uncertain.

    Shows a real counterweight: credibility concerns could push rates up or down, making the overall direction mixed.

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