Delta Air Lines vs Thai Airways International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)

Q3 202629 Jun – 25 Sep 2026

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Delta's record Q2 and Berkshire boost offset by fuel spike and cost pressures

Record Q2 earnings and reinstated guidance Delta reported record Q2 earnings and reinstated guidance, showing strong pricing power by passing 60% of fuel costs to consumers. Premium revenue grew 16–17%, and premium/loyalty reached 61% of Q2 revenue.
This is new positive news that directly supports the stock by demonstrating earnings strength and pricing power.
Berkshire boosts stake 44% to ~$5.4 billion Berkshire Hathaway increased its Delta stake by 44% to about $5.4 billion, reinforcing confidence in Delta's premium and loyalty business. Analysts also raised price targets, with Simply Wall St at $105.52 and Redburn initiating a Buy at $105.
This is a new vote of confidence from a major investor and analyst upgrades that can lift sentiment and the stock price.
Oil spike threatens $400 million monthly cost Jet fuel neared $140 per barrel, up 74% year-over-year, threatening roughly $400 million in monthly costs. Non-fuel unit costs also rose 6.8%, and shares fell 16% since August despite strong revenue.
This is a new negative force that pressures Delta's profitability and has already contributed to a stock decline.
Hormuz reopening hopes ease fuel fears but unverified Hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen eased fuel cost fears, but the claim remains unverified and may not hold. This uncertainty leaves Delta's cost outlook cloudy, balancing potential relief against risk.
This is a new mixed factor that could either relieve or worsen the fuel cost pressure, affecting Delta's stock direction.

September 202614 Sep – 25 Sep 2026

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Oil spike squeezes Delta, but premium mix and analyst support offset

Oil surge raises fuel costs Oil futures jumped 40% since August, nearing $110 a barrel, pushing jet fuel costs higher. Delta's Pennsylvania refinery softens the blow, but its shares still fell 16% since August. Higher fuel eats into profit unless fares rise or routes are cut.
This is the main new pressure on Delta's costs and stock price this period.
Premium and loyalty revenue keep growing Delta said non-main-cabin revenue hit 61% of Q2 revenue, with premium and loyalty each up nearly 20%. This shift away from basic coach tickets makes earnings steadier and less dependent on price wars, supporting the stock.
It shows a structural profit driver that helps offset fuel cost worries.
Analyst reiterates Buy, sees 2027 upside Redburn kept a Buy rating on Delta with a $105 target, saying strong leisure and premium demand plus limited capacity will lift unit revenue. Its 2027 forecasts are above consensus, signaling confidence in Delta's earnings power.
Analyst support can attract buyers and shape expectations for Delta's future profits.
Hormuz reopening hopes ease fuel fears Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, sending oil lower and Delta shares up 1.7%. But the claim is unverified and similar past deals collapsed, so the relief may not last. Lower fuel helps, but uncertainty remains.
It is a potential turning point for fuel costs, though fragile, directly affecting Delta's outlook.

Latest14 Sep – 25 Sep 2026

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Oil spike squeezes Delta, but premium mix and analyst support offset

Oil surge raises fuel costs Oil futures jumped 40% since August, nearing $110 a barrel, pushing jet fuel costs higher. Delta's Pennsylvania refinery softens the blow, but its shares still fell 16% since August. Higher fuel eats into profit unless fares rise or routes are cut.
This is the main new pressure on Delta's costs and stock price this period.
Premium and loyalty revenue keep growing Delta said non-main-cabin revenue hit 61% of Q2 revenue, with premium and loyalty each up nearly 20%. This shift away from basic coach tickets makes earnings steadier and less dependent on price wars, supporting the stock.
It shows a structural profit driver that helps offset fuel cost worries.
Analyst reiterates Buy, sees 2027 upside Redburn kept a Buy rating on Delta with a $105 target, saying strong leisure and premium demand plus limited capacity will lift unit revenue. Its 2027 forecasts are above consensus, signaling confidence in Delta's earnings power.
Analyst support can attract buyers and shape expectations for Delta's future profits.
Hormuz reopening hopes ease fuel fears Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, sending oil lower and Delta shares up 1.7%. But the claim is unverified and similar past deals collapsed, so the relief may not last. Lower fuel helps, but uncertainty remains.
It is a potential turning point for fuel costs, though fragile, directly affecting Delta's outlook.

August 202626 Jul – 4 Sep 2026

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Delta gains on demand, Berkshire stake; fuel spike threatens

Falling oil cuts fuel costs Early in the month, falling oil prices reduced Delta's fuel expenses, easing a major cost pressure and helping the stock. This made investors more optimistic about profit margins.
It explains a key positive force on Delta's price during the period.
Analysts raise fair value and targets Analysts increased their fair value estimates for Delta, with Simply Wall St raising its target by 29% to $105.52. This reflects growing confidence in Delta's earnings power and supports the stock price.
It shows a direct driver of investor sentiment and price during the period.
Berkshire boosts stake 44% Berkshire Hathaway increased its Delta stake by 44% to about $5.4 billion. This high-profile endorsement signals strong confidence in Delta's business and can attract other investors.
It highlights a major new investor action that likely lifted the stock.
Jet fuel nears $140, up 74% Later in the period, jet fuel prices surged to near $140 a barrel, up 74% from a year ago. This could add roughly $400 million in monthly costs for unhedged Delta, threatening profits and forcing higher fares or route cuts.
It is the main counterweight and risk to Delta's outlook during the period.

23 Aug – 4 Sep 2026

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Berkshire adds to Delta as fuel spike threatens airline profits

Berkshire's bigger Delta stake Berkshire Hathaway raised its Delta stake 44% to 57.3 million shares, about $5.4 billion, making Delta its only airline holding. A famous long-term investor buying more signals confidence and can pull other buyers in, which supports the stock.
A large, concrete new purchase by a respected investor is a direct reason DAL is moving.
AI fare testing could lift margins Delta's CEO says AI could raise profitability by up to 50%, lifting margins from about 10% to 15%, and Delta is already letting AI set prices on 3% of tickets. If it works, profits grow without selling more seats, which supports the stock.
New technology-driven profit potential is a fresh force behind the stock.
Delta outruns weaker rival American American is down 30.5% over five years while Delta gained over 100%, and American's quarterly profit of $71 million trails Delta's $1.6 billion. Delta's 9% operating margin and steady guidance show it is winning the premium-travel race, which supports its valuation.
Rival weakness highlights Delta's relative strength, a real driver of investor preference for DAL.
Fuel spike threatens costs and routes Jet fuel has neared $140 a barrel, up 74% from last year's average, after U.S.-Iran tensions raised fears about the Strait of Hormuz. Unhedged Delta faces roughly $400 million in extra monthly fuel costs, which could force higher fares or route cuts and squeeze profit.
Rising fuel is the main new risk pushing against Delta's profit outlook.

26 Jul – 14 Aug 2026

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Delta's profit outlook brightens as fuel costs fall and big investors buy in

Oil price drop cuts Delta's fuel bill Oil prices fell 6% as US-Iran tensions eased, and airline stocks including Delta rose. Fuel is one of Delta's biggest costs, so cheaper oil directly boosts profit and gives the stock room to rise.
Lower fuel costs are a major force behind Delta's improving profit picture.
Analysts raise Delta's value after strong Q2 Simply Wall St lifted its fair value estimate for Delta by 29% to $105.52, and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo raised price targets. This tells investors the market may be undervaluing Delta's earnings power.
Analyst upgrades reflect and reinforce the improving earnings and margin story.
Record global travel demand lifts Delta Global commercial flights hit a record 153,359 in one day, and Delta beat revenue and earnings expectations, projecting full-year 2026 income about 15% above 2025. Strong demand supports higher fares and profits.
Record demand is a core driver of Delta's revenue and earnings growth.
Berkshire boosts Delta stake by 44% Berkshire Hathaway increased its Delta stake by 44% to 57.3 million shares worth about $5.4 billion. A famous long-term investor buying more signals confidence in Delta's future and can attract other buyers.
A major investor's increased stake is a strong vote of confidence that can lift the stock.

July 202629 Jun – 22 Jul 2026

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Delta's record Q2 and pricing power offset rising fuel and cost pressures

Record Q2 earnings and reinstated guidance Delta beat Q2 estimates with record revenue and a $1.4 billion profit, and reinstated full-year guidance. This shows the business is performing well and gives investors more confidence in future results.
This is the main new financial result that drove sentiment in July.
Strong pricing power and premium demand Delta passed 60% of extra fuel costs to consumers, premium revenue grew 16-17%, and it plans to keep fares high even if fuel eases. This shows Delta can protect profits through pricing.
Pricing power is a key new driver of revenue and margin strength.
Cheap valuation and fuel-cost offsets The stock looks cheap at 11-13 times 2026 earnings. Delta's wholly owned refinery offsets jet fuel costs, and a five-year sustainable aviation fuel deal with Shell supports long-term plans.
Valuation and fuel-cost management are new factors supporting the stock.
Oil spike and rising non-fuel costs Oil spiked after the Iran ceasefire ended, pressuring fuel costs and the stock. Non-fuel unit costs jumped 6.8%, eating into margins and causing shares to slip despite revenue beats.
These are the main new risks that weighed on the stock in July.

13 Jul – 22 Jul 2026

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Delta's premium demand and higher fares offset rising costs

Costs rise even as revenue beats Delta beat earnings and posted record revenue, but non-fuel unit costs jumped 6.8% and the stock slipped. Higher costs eat into profit margins, so even strong sales don't fully protect the stock. Management still reaffirmed full-year guidance, which limits the damage.
This is the period's main new negative and explains why the stock fell despite a beat.
Premium and corporate travel stays strong Premium products, loyalty and corporate travel drove revenue up 16% in the first half, with premium revenue up 16%. Wealthier and business travelers keep paying up, which supports Delta's pricing power and profits even when the economy is uncertain.
Demand strength is the core force behind Delta's revenue and profit growth this period.
Delta keeps fares higher for good Delta is raising fares to cover fuel costs and plans to keep them at a higher baseline even if fuel eases, as the industry discounts less. That means more revenue per passenger sticks, boosting profit and showing Delta can set prices rather than just follow costs.
This is the new pricing decision that directly lifts Delta's revenue outlook.
Cheap valuation and SAF fuel deal Delta trades at about 11-13 times 2026 earnings with higher fuel costs already baked into guidance, making it look cheap. It also signed a five-year sustainable aviation fuel deal with Shell, securing lower-carbon fuel supply and supporting its long-term cost and environmental plans.
Valuation and the new fuel-supply deal are fresh supports for the stock.

29 Jun – 10 Jul 2026

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Delta beats Q2, passes fuel costs to fares, but oil spike clouds outlook

Delta's Q2 earnings beat and record revenue Delta reported second-quarter results that beat estimates, with record revenue and a $1.4 billion profit. The company reinstated full-year guidance, signaling confidence. This supports the stock because it shows Delta's business is strong and profitable, even with higher costs.
This is the period's biggest company-specific event and directly answers what's driving the stock.
Delta's pricing power: passing fuel costs to higher fares CEO Ed Bastian said Delta has passed 60% of extra fuel costs to consumers and expects higher airfares to persist. Premium revenue grew 17% and main cabin 8%. This boosts profit because Delta can raise prices without losing customers, protecting margins.
It explains how Delta is managing the fuel cost spike and why profits can stay strong.
Delta's refinery hedge offsets fuel cost surge Delta's wholly owned refinery saw revenue surge 83% to $2.09 billion, offsetting $0.11 per gallon of jet fuel cost. This unique hedge softens the blow from higher oil prices, helping Delta's profit compared to airlines without a refinery.
It shows a concrete way Delta is countering the negative impact of rising fuel costs.
Oil price spike on Iran ceasefire end raises fuel costs Oil prices surged after President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over, pushing jet fuel costs higher. Fuel is a major expense for airlines, so this pressures Delta's profit. The stock fell on the news, reflecting investor concern about rising costs.
It is the main negative force this period and directly affects Delta's cost structure.

Q2 202617 Jun – 25 Jun 2026

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Berkshire's $2.65B Delta stake and cheaper jet fuel lift the stock

Berkshire's $2.65B stake in Delta Berkshire Hathaway bought nearly 40 million Delta shares, a $2.65 billion bet under new CEO Greg Abel. It reverses Buffett's old view that airlines have no lasting edge, and the market reads it as a strong vote of confidence in Delta's premium and loyalty business.
This is the single biggest new event moving DAL and the clearest signal of outside confidence in the company.
Jet fuel costs fall sharply The Strait of Hormuz reopening and the US-Iran deal pushed oil and jet fuel down about 40% from April peaks. Fuel is an airline's biggest cost, so cheaper fuel directly boosts Delta's profit, though Delta benefits less than some peers because it hedges and owns a refinery.
Lower fuel is the main operating-cost driver behind the sector-wide rally and Delta's earnings outlook.
Tight capacity keeps fares high Airlines are adding only 0.4% more domestic seats this quarter, and budget carriers are cutting back. That lets Delta keep much of its recent fare increases instead of passing all the fuel savings to passengers, supporting revenue and profit.
It explains why cheaper fuel flows to Delta's bottom line rather than being competed away.
Strong revenue but EPS miss and rich valuation Delta's Q1 revenue beat estimates, but earnings per share and next-quarter guidance missed. UBS also notes Delta trades at more than twice United's 2027 earnings multiple, so further gains now need real revenue strength, not just cheaper fuel.
It is the honest counterweight: the fundamentals are good but not flawless, and the stock is no longer cheap.

June 202617 Jun – 25 Jun 2026

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Berkshire's $2.65B Delta stake and cheaper jet fuel lift the stock

Berkshire's $2.65B stake in Delta Berkshire Hathaway bought nearly 40 million Delta shares, a $2.65 billion bet under new CEO Greg Abel. It reverses Buffett's old view that airlines have no lasting edge, and the market reads it as a strong vote of confidence in Delta's premium and loyalty business.
This is the single biggest new event moving DAL and the clearest signal of outside confidence in the company.
Jet fuel costs fall sharply The Strait of Hormuz reopening and the US-Iran deal pushed oil and jet fuel down about 40% from April peaks. Fuel is an airline's biggest cost, so cheaper fuel directly boosts Delta's profit, though Delta benefits less than some peers because it hedges and owns a refinery.
Lower fuel is the main operating-cost driver behind the sector-wide rally and Delta's earnings outlook.
Tight capacity keeps fares high Airlines are adding only 0.4% more domestic seats this quarter, and budget carriers are cutting back. That lets Delta keep much of its recent fare increases instead of passing all the fuel savings to passengers, supporting revenue and profit.
It explains why cheaper fuel flows to Delta's bottom line rather than being competed away.
Strong revenue but EPS miss and rich valuation Delta's Q1 revenue beat estimates, but earnings per share and next-quarter guidance missed. UBS also notes Delta trades at more than twice United's 2027 earnings multiple, so further gains now need real revenue strength, not just cheaper fuel.
It is the honest counterweight: the fundamentals are good but not flawless, and the stock is no longer cheap.

17 Jun – 25 Jun 2026

▲3

Berkshire's $2.65B Delta stake and cheaper jet fuel lift the stock

Berkshire's $2.65B stake in Delta Berkshire Hathaway bought nearly 40 million Delta shares, a $2.65 billion bet under new CEO Greg Abel. It reverses Buffett's old view that airlines have no lasting edge, and the market reads it as a strong vote of confidence in Delta's premium and loyalty business.
This is the single biggest new event moving DAL and the clearest signal of outside confidence in the company.
Jet fuel costs fall sharply The Strait of Hormuz reopening and the US-Iran deal pushed oil and jet fuel down about 40% from April peaks. Fuel is an airline's biggest cost, so cheaper fuel directly boosts Delta's profit, though Delta benefits less than some peers because it hedges and owns a refinery.
Lower fuel is the main operating-cost driver behind the sector-wide rally and Delta's earnings outlook.
Tight capacity keeps fares high Airlines are adding only 0.4% more domestic seats this quarter, and budget carriers are cutting back. That lets Delta keep much of its recent fare increases instead of passing all the fuel savings to passengers, supporting revenue and profit.
It explains why cheaper fuel flows to Delta's bottom line rather than being competed away.
Strong revenue but EPS miss and rich valuation Delta's Q1 revenue beat estimates, but earnings per share and next-quarter guidance missed. UBS also notes Delta trades at more than twice United's 2027 earnings multiple, so further gains now need real revenue strength, not just cheaper fuel.
It is the honest counterweight: the fundamentals are good but not flawless, and the stock is no longer cheap.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Q3 202621 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

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Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.
It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.
Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.
These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.
Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.
These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.
Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.
Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 202614 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

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Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.
This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.
Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.
This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.
CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.
This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.
Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.
This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

Latest29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

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Flood crisis hits Thai Airways operations, CEO suspended; recovery and cheap valuation in focus

Flooding forces flight cancellations and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left ground staff unable to reach work, so Thai Airways cancelled dozens of flights, stranded over 5,600 bags, and cut Bangkok capacity by about 30%. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on the shares.
This is the core new event that explains the sharp drop in THAI shares this period.
Cargo operations suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at Suvarnabhumi from October 1–6 after flooding caused a staffing shortage, leaving about 12,000 tons of goods stuck. The government pressured the airline to fix it fast, adding to reputational and financial damage.
Cargo is a meaningful profit source and the suspension is a new operational blow not previously reported.
CEO suspended, board launches investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty and possible governance issues are a short-term overhang, though brokers see limited profit impact if operations normalise quickly.
This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and affects investor confidence.
Recovery underway, brokers see cheap valuation and Q4 rebound Thai Airways restored most flights by October 1–3 and cleared the baggage backlog. Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a 7.56 baht consensus target, a cheap 2027 P/E of 6.9x, lower fuel costs, and a high-season earnings recovery.
This provides the counterweight: the operational crisis is easing and analysts still see value and a Q4 rebound.

14 Sep – 24 Sep 2026

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Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.
This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.
Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.
This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.
Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.
This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.
CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.
This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 202612 Aug – 11 Sep 2026

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Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.
This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.
Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.
It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.
Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.
It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.
KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.
A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

12 Aug – 11 Sep 2026

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Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.
This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.
Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.
It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.
Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.
It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.
KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.
A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 202621 Jul – 5 Aug 2026

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THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.
Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.
19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.
This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.
U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.
New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.
Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.
Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

21 Jul – 5 Aug 2026

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THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.
Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.
19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.
This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.
U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.
New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.
Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.
Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.