Cleveland-Cliffs vs ArcelorMittal SA: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 202622 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' earnings surge and defense deal offset by downgrade and tariff risks

Earnings surge and strong guidance Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 adjusted EBITDA tripled to $286 million, and Q3 guidance doubled to about $575 million, driven by solid domestic demand and subdued imports. Shares jumped 16% on the news.
This is the main positive force behind the stock's move this quarter.
Defense contract and plant upgrade Cliffs won a five-year U.S. Defense contract worth up to $400 million for electrical steel and announced a $1 billion upgrade at its Middletown Works, half-funded by a DOE grant, extending the blast furnace's life and cutting costs.
These new deals support future revenue and efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
Analyst downgrade on peak steel rally Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. This suggests limited upside ahead and weighed on sentiment.
This is a key negative factor that tempered the stock's gains.
Mixed tariff impact from U.S.-Canada framework A tentative U.S.-Canada framework halving tariffs to 25% could pressure U.S. steel prices, but may benefit Cliffs' Stelco operations. The net effect on Cliffs remains uncertain.
This policy change creates both risks and opportunities, making the overall impact mixed.

July 202622 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

Latest22 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

August 202623 Jul – 21 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.
This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.
This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.
$1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.
This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.
Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.
It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

23 Jul – 21 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.
This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.
This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.
$1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.
This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.
Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.
It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

ArcelorMittal SA (MT.AS)

Q3 202617 Jun – 30 Sep 2026

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ArcelorMittal Q3: Tech Deals and Brazil Growth Offset by War Damage and Profit Drop

AI and Amazon deals ArcelorMittal partnered with AWS for AI and agreed to supply Amazon with XCarb green steel. These moves should cut costs and provide a steady customer, supporting future earnings.
New partnerships that could improve efficiency and revenue.
EU carbon relief and Brazil expansion EU carbon-rule relief efforts could reduce a major regulatory burden. Brazil’s $961M Pecém expansion aims at higher-margin steel, potentially boosting long-term profitability.
New regulatory and expansion developments that could lower costs and improve margins.
Russian strikes on Kryvyi Rih Two Russian strikes halted primary output at Kryvyi Rih, killing three contractors and injuring 13. This adds repair costs, lost production, and recurring war risk, weighing on operations.
New geopolitical event that directly disrupts production and adds costs.
Sharp Q2 profit drop Q2 net profit fell to $683M from $1.79B, even as EBITDA rose to $2.06B. The profit decline may worry investors despite improving operating trends.
New earnings report showing a significant profit decline that could affect investor sentiment.

September 20263 Aug – 30 Sep 2026

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ArcelorMittal: Ukraine strikes halt output, Brazil expansion and AI push offset

Second missile strike halts Kryvyi Rih steel output A ballistic missile hit ArcelorMittal's Kryvyi Rih plant in Ukraine, killing two contractors and stopping primary steel production while ironmaking complex #1 is assessed. This is the second strike in five weeks, so lost output and repair costs weigh on earnings and the share price.
Directly hits production and earnings, the clearest negative force on MT.AS this period.
Earlier drone attack injured workers at same plant In mid-August a large Russian drone and missile attack on Kryvyi Rih injured 13 ArcelorMittal employees and killed one. It showed the war is repeatedly disrupting the company's Ukrainian assets, adding risk and cost that pressure the stock.
First of the two strikes; sets up the recurring war risk to ArcelorMittal's assets.
Brazil Pecém mill expansion targets higher-margin steel ArcelorMittal aims to decide by year-end on a $961M expansion of its Pecém mill in Brazil, adding a 1.5M-ton hot-rolled coil line. Turning cheap slab into higher-value rolled steel should lift future profits, supporting the share price.
A concrete growth investment that improves the long-term earnings mix.
Microsoft Azure and AI deal to cut costs over time ArcelorMittal expanded its Microsoft partnership, making Azure its main cloud platform and embedding AI and data tools across its IT systems. The goal is lower legacy IT costs and better efficiency, a slow-building positive for margins and the stock.
A structural efficiency driver that supports profitability beyond daily price moves.

Latest3 Aug – 30 Sep 2026

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ArcelorMittal: Ukraine strikes halt output, Brazil expansion and AI push offset

Second missile strike halts Kryvyi Rih steel output A ballistic missile hit ArcelorMittal's Kryvyi Rih plant in Ukraine, killing two contractors and stopping primary steel production while ironmaking complex #1 is assessed. This is the second strike in five weeks, so lost output and repair costs weigh on earnings and the share price.
Directly hits production and earnings, the clearest negative force on MT.AS this period.
Earlier drone attack injured workers at same plant In mid-August a large Russian drone and missile attack on Kryvyi Rih injured 13 ArcelorMittal employees and killed one. It showed the war is repeatedly disrupting the company's Ukrainian assets, adding risk and cost that pressure the stock.
First of the two strikes; sets up the recurring war risk to ArcelorMittal's assets.
Brazil Pecém mill expansion targets higher-margin steel ArcelorMittal aims to decide by year-end on a $961M expansion of its Pecém mill in Brazil, adding a 1.5M-ton hot-rolled coil line. Turning cheap slab into higher-value rolled steel should lift future profits, supporting the share price.
A concrete growth investment that improves the long-term earnings mix.
Microsoft Azure and AI deal to cut costs over time ArcelorMittal expanded its Microsoft partnership, making Azure its main cloud platform and embedding AI and data tools across its IT systems. The goal is lower legacy IT costs and better efficiency, a slow-building positive for margins and the stock.
A structural efficiency driver that supports profitability beyond daily price moves.

July 202617 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

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ArcelorMittal: AI deal, ETS relief push, mixed Q2 profit

AI partnership and Amazon steel supply deal ArcelorMittal is teaming with Amazon Web Services to use AI across its steelmaking, which should cut costs and lift efficiency. Amazon will also buy lower-carbon XCarb steel for years, giving a steady new customer. Both support future profits and the share price.
New technology and demand news that directly boosts ArcelorMittal's earnings outlook.
Steelmakers push for softer EU carbon rules ArcelorMittal and two peers asked the EU to pause rising carbon-permit costs until cheap power, hydrogen and carbon capture are ready. If Brussels listens, it lowers a big cost burden. The EU is now reviewing the system, so this is a live positive for the stock.
Regulatory relief would directly cut ArcelorMittal's costs and improve margins.
Q2 profit falls but underlying earnings rise Net profit dropped to $683 million from $1.79 billion a year ago, yet EBITDA rose to $2.06 billion and sales grew. The company expects higher shipments ahead and sees $1.8 billion more EBITDA from projects. The headline profit fall may worry some, but the operating trend is improving.
Latest earnings show a mixed picture that investors are weighing right now.

17 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

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ArcelorMittal: AI deal, ETS relief push, mixed Q2 profit

AI partnership and Amazon steel supply deal ArcelorMittal is teaming with Amazon Web Services to use AI across its steelmaking, which should cut costs and lift efficiency. Amazon will also buy lower-carbon XCarb steel for years, giving a steady new customer. Both support future profits and the share price.
New technology and demand news that directly boosts ArcelorMittal's earnings outlook.
Steelmakers push for softer EU carbon rules ArcelorMittal and two peers asked the EU to pause rising carbon-permit costs until cheap power, hydrogen and carbon capture are ready. If Brussels listens, it lowers a big cost burden. The EU is now reviewing the system, so this is a live positive for the stock.
Regulatory relief would directly cut ArcelorMittal's costs and improve margins.
Q2 profit falls but underlying earnings rise Net profit dropped to $683 million from $1.79 billion a year ago, yet EBITDA rose to $2.06 billion and sales grew. The company expects higher shipments ahead and sees $1.8 billion more EBITDA from projects. The headline profit fall may worry some, but the operating trend is improving.
Latest earnings show a mixed picture that investors are weighing right now.